What to do if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?

[The Dark Lord]

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important chokepoints in the world, something like 20% of the world's oil passes through it. Iran threatens to close it if export of their oil is blocked. Now, I doubt they are crazy enough to do this but if they can't export oil, their economy will be ruined so they may feel that they have nothing to lose.

Now what to do if they actually follow through with their threat? Obviously, the Strait would have to be reopened, probably by force. I say go further than that. Completely destroy the Iranian military. At least as much as can be done without a ground invasion. Destroy their nuclear program. After that let the cards fall as they may.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Iran don't have the means to close the Straits for anu kind of time.

Notice the Military have played this down. They know that their Navy and AIr Force would be destroyed in short order if they tried to put up a blockade.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I doubt the Iran government is as stupid as that. What I wonder is what do they gain by sentencing that American to death. Is it all about the ransom? Do they expect a prisoner exchange? Do they think or does this earn kudos from their radical political base? These odd actions make little sense from the Western world's point of view.

Maybe Ahmaddinnerjacket still believes in the power they/he had/felt when they took the embassy staff hostage?

 

[The Dark Lord]

For those of you didn't know, Iran mined the straits back in 1988. A USN ship hit one of the mines and blew a big hole in its hull (it survived with no loss of life). The USN delivered a minor ass whooping in retaliation, sinking a few ships.

So while it is probably unlikely that they would try to close the
straits, I don't think it is out of the question. They would have their backs against the wall and it is not like they are known for rational decisions anyway.

 

[Soapy Sam]

I assume the greens would love it. Reduced CO2 output and all that.
The Russians would love it as they could raise prices.
The energy companies would love it, ditto.

It's an ill wind...

 

[geni]

Now what to do if they actually follow through with their threat? Obviously, the Strait would have to be reopened, probably by force.

You are optimistic. Force is unlikely to help you very much. Oh I would imagine that anti ship missiles would be used to engage targets of opportunity but the actual closure would far more likely involve large numbers of mines.

I say go further than that. Completely destroy the Iranian military. At least as much as can be done without a ground invasion.

So not very much. Iran isn't Iraq. They haven't maxed out their credit cards on lots of nice shiny tanks. Think lots and lots of RPGs. Not easy to terminate from the air.

Destroy their nuclear program. After that let the cards fall as they may.[/QUOTE]

 

[geni]

Iran don't have the means to close the Straits for anu kind of time.

Of course they do. Large numbers of mines backed by just enough missile gunboats and mini subs to make mine clearing difficult.

Notice the Military have played this down. They know that their Navy and AIr Force would be destroyed in short order if they tried to put up a blockade.

Their air-force is an irrelevance. Its the Navy where things get interesting. They've gone the Israeli route of patrol boats carrying big anti-ship missiles. Might well knock out US ships through shear weight of numbers. US submarines would be more of a problem but its hard to break a blockade with submarines.

 

[The Dark Lord]

You are optimistic. Force is unlikely to help you very much. Oh I would imagine that anti ship missiles would be used to engage targets of opportunity but the actual closure would far more likely involve large numbers of mines.

OK. Get rid of the mines after destroying the Iranian Navy. The latter shouldn't take more than a few hours.

So not very much. Iran isn't Iraq. They haven't maxed out their credit cards on lots of nice shiny tanks. Think lots and lots of RPGs. Not easy to terminate from the air.

RPGs aren't much of a threat to the USN or USAF.

 

[The Dark Lord]

Their air-force is an irrelevance. Its the Navy where things get interesting. They've gone the Israeli route of patrol boats carrying big anti-ship missiles. Might well knock out US ships through shear weight of numbers. US submarines would be more of a problem but its hard to break a blockade with submarines.

Its possible but I find it doubtful.

 

[geni]

OK. Get rid of the mines after destroying the Iranian Navy.

We are still clearing mines from WW2.

The latter shouldn't take more than a few hours.

Depends which bit. Sure the larger ships shouldn't be an issue but the submarines may be harder to find and the shear numbers of Thaqeb carrying gunboats present issues.

RPGs aren't much of a threat to the USN or USAF.

Indeed. But it does rather limit the extent to which they can weaken the Iranian army.

 

[geni]

Its possible but I find it doubtful.

Operation millennium challenge? And Iran has had close on a decade since then to watch the US in action and learn further lessons.

 

[The Dark Lord]

We are still clearing mines from WW2.

They layed mines back in 1988. I don't recall any ships hit any s8ince then. Do you?

Depends which bit. Sure the larger ships shouldn't be an issue but the submarines may be harder to find and the shear numbers of Thaqeb carrying gunboats present issues.

The Kilos might be a bit of a challenge if they are competantly commanded. I doubt this very much though.

Indeed. But it does rather limit the extent to which they can weaken the Iranian army.

I could live with it if their entire military is composed of people with RPGs.

 

[MG1962]

For those of you didn't know, Iran mined the straits back in 1988. A USN ship hit one of the mines and blew a big hole in its hull (it survived with no loss of life). The USN delivered a minor ass whooping in retaliation, sinking a few ships.

With the fascinating name Operation: Praying Mantis

 

[The Dark Lord]

Operation millennium challenge?

From what I understand about this exercise, it was conducted entirely in a computer. Further, the enemy was somehow able to spawn in unlimited numbers close to USN ships in the form of fishing ships. And the USN was not allowed to fire on fishing ships. This hardly reflects the real world.

And Iran has had close on a decade since then to watch the US in action and learn further lessons.

And the USN hasn't changed anything in the past ten years.

 

[WildCat]

You are optimistic. Force is unlikely to help you very much. Oh I would imagine that anti ship missiles would be used to engage targets of opportunity but the actual closure would far more likely involve large numbers of mines.

And mines require a boat to lay them. It's hard to lay a mine when your boat is 200 feet under water.

 

[geni]

And mines require a boat to lay them. It's hard to lay a mine when your boat is 200 feet under water.

I think thats what submarines are for.

You can carry a mine on the back of a speed boat or fishing trawler and of course drift mines mean you don't need to be that close to the area you want to cause trouble in. A conserted mine laying attempt would be an absolute pain to control.

Particularly when you consider shore launched anti-ship missiles and Iran's AA defences are good enough to make using helicopters risky.

 

[geni]

From what I understand about this exercise, it was conducted entirely in a computer. Further, the enemy was somehow able to spawn in unlimited numbers close to USN ships in the form of fishing ships. And the USN was not allowed to fire on fishing ships. This hardly reflects the real world.

It involved 13K troops. Strenching entirely in a computer to an unreasonable extent. I'm not sure if refloating the fleet reflects the real world either.

And the USN hasn't changed anything in the past ten years.

Well on the basis that even 40 years later they still don't seem to be acting like a post Eilat navy probably not.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

We are still clearing mines from WW2....

Give us a break, if the Iranians started laying mines we'd see it with satellites or some other mechanism right away.

Just out of curiosity, were you too young to watch the first Gulf War?

 

[geni]

Give us a break, if the Iranians started laying mines we'd see it with satellites or some other mechanism right away.

You can see submarines with satellites now? Thing is that isn't very much to see. Just grab a random trawler and throw things off the back. Remember you wouldn't be looking to create a comprehensive defensive minefield just enough for civilian area denial.

Just out of curiosity, were you too young to watch the first Gulf War?

Iran is not iraq. Iraq ultimately fights like a western country. Not very well but if you look at the Iran-Iraq war and later the gulf war and even the Iraq war there are still attempts to fight a conventional western war. Basicaly WW2 with better kit.

Iran doesn't. Fairly limited heavy equipment but a lot of smaller kit with serious punch. While their navy does suffer from vanity projects there are also a lot of smaller vessels that look like they could make the old naval dust idea actualy work (it helps that no bluewater ability would be needed).

Were you too young to watch the Iran-Iraq war?

 

[MG1962]

And mines require a boat to lay them. It's hard to lay a mine when your boat is 200 feet under water.

You can also drop them from the air