Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

Ah, what the heck:

The oddsmakers put M. Romney in first place with odds two to four times better than those of N. Gingrich - whose odds are twice as good as Ron Paul's - whose odds are twice as good as John Huntsman's.
 
Ladewig said:
Ah, what the heck:

The oddsmakers put M. Romney in first place with odds two to four times better than those of N. Gingrich - whose odds are twice as good as Ron Paul's - whose odds are twice as good as John Huntsman's.
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I predict Herman Cain will win the Iowa caucus and spring 20 points into the lead, like Jude Brando originally said (NOT).
 
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TimCallahan said:
I predict Herman Cain will win the Iowa caucus and spring 20 points into the lead, like Jude Brando originally said (NOT).
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The bookmakers are currently placing his chances for the nomination somewhere between 100:1 and 256:1. A sawbuck will win you enough to have a pretty wild weekend in Las Vegas. A C-note and some luck will get you enough to buy a car.
 
TubbaBlubba said:
As far as Paul's ratings go, don't they go around by the bus-load to polling spots? His followers are of a particularly persistent sort.
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During the 2008 campaigns, WeAreChange, the most obnoxious, best-organized 9/11 twoofer group, showed up at a lot of Obama events to put up Ron Paul signs and propogandize the crowds.
 
The odds makers place N. Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum in a three-way tie for second place, but M. Romney's odds are over 20 times as good as any of these three.

These bookies still place Obama ahead of Romney - most have Obama's odds being twice as good as Romney's.
 
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Well, my usual site posted the polls as of 1/2/12, meaning they haven't altered the standings in light of the Iowa caucus, at which Romney and Santorum tied, followed closely by Ron Paul. Gingrich was way back, down with Perry:

Iowa Caucus Results

Romney 24.5%
Santorum 24.5
Paul 21.4
Gingrich 13.3
Perry 10.3
Bachmann 5.0
Huntsman 0.6
undecided or other 0.4
 
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TimCallahan said:
Well, my usual site posted the polls as of 1/2/12, meaning they haven't altered the standings in light of the Iowa caucus, at which Romney and Santorum tied, followed closely by Ron Paul. Gingrich was way back, down with Perry:

Iowa Caucus Results

Romney 24.5%
Santorum 24.5
Paul 21.4
Gingrich 13.3
Perry 10.3
Bachmann 5.0
Huntsman 0.6
undecided or other 0.4
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And while those numbers will buoy the hopes of R. Santorum, the bookies made Romney's odds significantly better than they were two days ago.

Romney: bet $1, win 20 cents
Santorum: bet $1, win $8

That's quite a gap.
 
My usual site has apparently caught up, at least somewhat, with the Iowa caucus results and now lists Romney in the lead in the polls:

Romney 26%
Gingrich 25.3
Paul 13.0
Perry 6.3
Bachmann 6.0
Santorum 4.8
Huntsman 1.8
Undecided 16.8

Since Bachmann has now dropped out of the race, and Santorum nearly tied Romney, it would seem thee numbers need a bit more tweaking. Considering that Gingrich seems to be doing a slow fade, it looks as though Romney will be the Republican nominee. However, I suspect one of three things will happen with his nomination:

1) Paul will jump ship, run as a Libertarian and pull those who would have voted for Perry, Santorum, Bachmann or Cain with him. This will effectively split the conservative vote, and Obama will win in a walk.

2) The conservatives won't jump ship, but will only give grudging support to Romney, possibly insuring his defeat.

3) The conservatives will bend Romney to their will and their platform as a price for their votes.
 
Now my usual site shows a poll amended by Bachmann dropping out:

Romney 26.8%
Gingrich 22.6
Paul 12.8
Santorum 8.6
Perry 5.8
Huntsman 3.2
undecided (by implication) 20.2

The 20.2% not held by any of the remaining candidates may reflect those originally committed either to Cain or Bachmann who haven' yet found a new home. Should Huntsman's supporters eventually give their support to Romney, and Perry's and Santorum's support shift to Paul, we could have a three-way race:

Paul et al 47.4%
Romney 30.0
Gingrich 22.6

However, I doubt these various right-wing ideologues would be able to agree with each other enough to unite. Thus, assuming Romney absorbs Gingrich's supporters, giving him over 50%, the result would be:

supporting Romney as nominee 52.6%
"Anyone but Romney" disaffected 47.4
 
another look at the polls shows Romney's lead increasing and Santorum gaining, apparently still coasting on the Iowa caucus showing. At the same time those undecided would seem to count for a fifth of Republicans:

Previous -------Today
Romney 26.8% --- 27.2%
Gingrich 22.6 --- 22.2
Paul 12.8 --- 12.6
Santorum 8.6 --- 9.6
Perry 5.8 --- 5.8
Huntsman 3.2 --- 2.0
undecided 20.2 --- 20.6
 
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TimCallahan said:
another look at the polls shows Romney's lead increasing and Santorum gaining, apparently still coasting on the Iowa caucus showing. At the same time those undecided would seem to count for a fifth of Republicans:

Previous -------Today
Romney 26.8% --- 27.2%
Gingrich 22.6 --- 22.2
Paul 12.8 --- 12.6
Santorum 8.6 --- 9.6
Perry 5.8 --- 5.8
Huntsman 3.2 --- 2.0
undecided 20.2 --- 20.6
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And the bookies are still saying
a $5 bet on Romney will pay $1 if he wins.
A $5 bet on Santorum will pay $40 if he wins.
A $5 bet on Gingrich will pay $70 if he wins.

The other candidates have even longer odds.
 
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Okay, now this is just plain weird. the polls now put Santorum in second place:

Romney 26.0%
Santorum 17.7
Gingrich 16.0
Paul 11.7
Perry 5.3
Huntsman 3.0
undecided 21.3

I don't know which is more significant, Santorum's surge or ingrich's fade. So, if the whakadoodles all line up behind Santorum (sounds messy), and Gingrich and Huntsman support Romney, we'd have:

Romney 45%
Santorum 34.7
undecided 21.3

The question, of course, is: Will Santorum's momentum hold, or will he, like Huckabee, fizzle in the coming months? Perhaps we should just go with Laedwig's odds-makers.
 
TimCallahan said:
The question, of course, is: Will Santorum's momentum hold,
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I am not counting on it. I just Googled his name. The first response was the unmentionable thing and the second response was his Wikipedia entry , which includes a hotlink to the third response, Wikipedia's article on "Santorum's Google problem."

ON the other hand, he may get sympathy from folks who think he did nothing wrong.
 
TimCallahan said:
I don't know which is more significant, Santorum's surge or ingrich's fade. So, if the whakadoodles all line up behind Santorum (sounds messy), and Gingrich and Huntsman support Romney, we'd have:
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Not bloody likely. I might be wrong and it could be pure posturing, but Gingrich seems a bit pissed at Romney for some of his attack ads.
 
TimCallahan said:
, and Gingrich and Huntsman support Romney, we'd have:
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I think you are making a grave mistake. Just because a particular nominee hopeful drops out and throws his support to another candidate does not mean that all the supporters of the first candidate will move en masse to the second candidate.

Not all of the people listed as being willing to vote for Gingrich really support his platform. For some (perhaps many) they chose the candidate that they dislike the least. If that candidate drops out they begin the selection process all over by trying to find the one they dislike the least among the remaining hopefuls. Furthermore some people may have mentioned Gingrich's name to a pollster simply because "anyone but Romney" ETA: and "none of the above" were not available as choices.
 
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Well, tomorrow will tel,l in the New Hampshire primary. If Santorum can maintain a head of sperm, I mean steam, he may be able to be a thorn in Romney's side, or a pain in his ___.

On the other hand, if Romney wins big and looks to be the anointed nominee, then he may have a real hassle keeping the tea-baggers and the other right-wingers. They may just bolt the party, something devoutly to be wished for.
 
TimCallahan said:
Well, tomorrow will tel,l in the New Hampshire primary. If Santorum can maintain a head of sperm, I mean steam, he may be able to be a thorn in Romney's side, or a pain in his ___.

On the other hand, if Romney wins big and looks to be the anointed nominee, then he may have a real hassle keeping the tea-baggers and the other right-wingers. They may just bolt the party, something devoutly to be wished for.
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I agree. There are still cards to be dealt.


ETA: I have already thought of all the playing card double entendres related to Santorum's nom de guerre so just pretend that they were written out and we can avoid the unpleasantries.
 
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