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The cautious Obama resurgence?

That Keystone Pipline is going to be the bane of our existence. Politicians do the most retarded crap.

No tax holiday unless you made a decision on a pipeline? They're not even connected in any way - why would one depend on the other?
 
That Keystone Pipline is going to be the bane of our existence. Politicians do the most retarded crap.

No tax holiday unless you made a decision on a pipeline? They're not even connected in any way - why would one depend on the other?
I really want that orange-skinned freak from Ohio to have to expalin that to the American people in November.
 
After the way he forced the republicons to cave in to him for a change on the paytroll tax holiday, expect some changes.
We already been through that, and see how well that worked, which was kind of the point of my post. He got a bump and now has fallen back. The GOP is obviously well aware of how this played out also, so I wouldn't count on this being a new and improved BO that will be steadily rising in opinion.
 
That Keystone Pipline is going to be the bane of our existence. Politicians do the most retarded crap.

No tax holiday unless you made a decision on a pipeline? They're not even connected in any way - why would one depend on the other?

Obama could make real political hay from this! Used correctly, this could destroy the GOP chances of keeping the House. Of course, Obama does not have any concept of how to play rough - he is just too decent.
 
Are you kidding? You don't need much, if its risk free you can collect as much as you like as long as it lasts.

But it isn't risk free, because that IEM price is not for an Obama victory.

I'm having trouble understanding how the IEM price is not for an Obama victory when it is specifically for the presidential election. Please explain.
 
That price doesn't translate to the implied probability of Obama winning like the intrade one does. If it did, you could arbitrage the two and make a guaranteed profit.

My point is to look at the trends in both the IEM and Intrade markets. The trends are looking favorable, with the numbers for the Dems/Obama trending upward significantly in recent weeks.
 
There should be a prospectus fully disclosing the circumstance in which the contract pays. It is not "Obama is elected president". It nearly is but not quite, and it would be a slight overestimate of that.
 
My point is to look at the trends in both the IEM and Intrade markets. The trends are looking favorable, with the numbers for the Dems/Obama trending upward significantly in recent weeks.
Mine is that Intrade is the best unbiased estimate of Obama being elected right now, better than polls and better than rolling averages of recent polls.
 
We already been through that, and see how well that worked, which was kind of the point of my post. He got a bump and now has fallen back. The GOP is obviously well aware of how this played out also, so I wouldn't count on this being a new and improved BO that will be steadily rising in opinion.
He has nothing to lose by fighting back against the whackadoodles any more. No major initiatives are going to get past freaks like Ryan, Canter and Agent Orange, and those fools are setting themselves up for a major sorting-out if they refuse to extend the tax holiday unless their ownersw get an even bigger pile of goodies.
 
My point is to look at the trends in both the IEM and Intrade markets. The trends are looking favorable, with the numbers for the Dems/Obama trending upward significantly in recent weeks.
Poll averages show BO increasing over Romney from around 12/6 to 12/21 where it then leveled off. Now dropping back down.

leftysergeant said:
He has nothing to lose by fighting back against the whackadoodles any more.
Fighting or compromising hasn't helped BO in the opinion polls as we have seen.
 
Poll averages show BO increasing over Romney from around 12/6 to 12/21 where it then leveled off. Now dropping back down.

Fighting or compromising hasn't helped BO in the opinion polls as we have seen.

Obama was calling the republicons out for trying to raise taxes on the working class during that period. Telling Agent Orange where to reroute the pipeline and telling him to get busy or bear the onus of raising taxes on working people would show the country where he stands. That has been his big problem all along. Caving in to the ranting lunatic right has gotten him diddly so far, so there is no reason to assume that it will do him any good now.
 
Obama was calling the republicons out for trying to raise taxes on the working class during that period.
And it was a temporary bounce.

Caving in to the ranting lunatic right has gotten him diddly so far, so there is no reason to assume that it will do him any good now.
Right, it won't do him any good, likewise fighting them only helped temporarily. The guys overall track record is not inspiring to the public, hence is lousy approval ratings. Making like a tough guy can't change 3 years of failure in the eye of the public. Further, the GOP is not likely to want to do anything during the next 12 months that might end up giving him a bounce in the polls, even if temporarily.
 
Making like a tough guy can't change 3 years of failure in the eye of the public. Further, the GOP is not likely to want to do anything during the next 12 months that might end up giving him a bounce in the polls, even if temporarily.
Acting like shrieking brats having a tantrum in the toy aisle seems to me a good way for the republicons to prove to the country that it is their fault, rather than Obama's that the problems were not fixed.
 
After the way he forced the republicons to cave in to him for a change on the paytroll tax holiday, expect some changes.

If the clowns kjeep insisting that they get to force the Keystone Pipeine on us in exchange for a tax cut to the middle class, look for the GOP and whatever meat puppet they run against Obama to start smelling like last year's bait bucket.

President Obama is the best Republican President we've had since Dwight Eisenhower.

I expect reelection by a landslide.
 

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