I believe it is possible there was a confrontation in the kitchen so I am curious why you think the mushroom excludes it. I have posted something similar to this on IIP but I will use this as an excuse to post it here also (and with the addition of the mushroom):
- Rudy believes everyone in the cottage will be away all night.
- Rudy breaks in and makes himself at home per his MO.
- Rudy uses the bathroom by the laundry room to take a crap.
- Rudy turns up his iPod and listens to a tune with his earphones while doing so.
- Meredith arrives home without Rudy hearing her and without Meredith being aware of Rudy.
- Meredith goes to her bedroom and drops her books and purse on her bed.
- Meredith returns to remove her laundry from the laundry room.
- On the way she has to go by the fridge so grabs a mushroom and swallows it.
- She goes into the laundry room and spots Rudy.
- Rudy spots Meredith and half pulls up his pants and starts coming out of the bathroom.
- Meredith retreats to the kitchen and grabs a kitchen knife to protect herself.
- Rudy comes into the kitchen with his pants still partly down.
- Meredith now terrified slashes at Rudy.
- Rudy wrestles the knife from her but cuts his hand in the process.
- Meredith screams and retreats to her bedroom.
- Rudy now enraged chases her to the bedroom.
- Rudy catches and pins her near the head of the bed.
- Rudy leaves finger streaks on the wall with the blood from his bleeding fingers.
- Meredith tries to escape by going around him.
- Rudy tackles her and stabs her.
This closely matches Rudy's own story. The main difference being that the man he confronted in the hallway is actually Meredith. I think Rudy's initial explanations tried to portray himself as innocent while keeping as close to the actual events as possible. That gave Rudy the best chance that his innocent version would match the evidence.
Unfortunately the source of finger trace blood stains on the wall above the head of Meredith's bed were not positively identified.
I don't think the consumption of the mushroom excludes a kitchen confrontation but, along with the absence of any sign of a struggle there, I see it as a pointer away from that scenario because it clearly shows, at least for the time it would take to go the fridge etc. a confrontation free period in the kitchen. It also shows Meredith was unaware of Rudy's presence in the bathroom.
As my personal (and provisional) reconstruction of events indeed differs from yours I will comment on those of your bullet points which pose a threat to my theory:
[*]Rudy breaks in and makes himself at home per his MO.
[*]Rudy uses the bathroom by the laundry room to take a crap.
I think you can exclude the first of these two steps as Meredith noticed nothing unusual in the kitchen, nor did Amanda the next day. This also points to an early TOD, if anything.
[*]Rudy turns up his iPod and listens to a tune with his earphones while doing so.
[*]Meredith arrives home without Rudy hearing her and without Meredith being aware of Rudy.
Rudy's story about the iPod is not part of his sticking as close to the truth as possible (I agree that, generally, this is a good thing to do in the circs.) but part of his explanation of how unauthorised entry and violence went on without him knowing or doing anything about it.
It strikes me as more natural to suppose he left the two doors open and turned on a light to take a dump but switched off the light when he heard Meredith's key in the door. The doors are not of the 'swing shut' type judging by the video shot the next day. I wonder whether any prints of his were lifted from the inside door handles of those two doors.
If the doors were open, then even with an iPod he would have seen the kitchen light go on.
[*]Meredith goes to her bedroom and drops her books and purse on her bed.
[*]Meredith returns to remove her laundry from the laundry room.
[*]On the way she has to go by the fridge so grabs a mushroom and swallows it.
Possibly (except I cannot allow the second one). I have her going to the kitchen first then to her room. Things get harder for your theory below.
[*]She goes into the laundry room and spots Rudy.
[*]Rudy spots Meredith and half pulls up his pants and starts coming out of the bathroom.
[*]Meredith retreats to the kitchen and grabs a kitchen knife to protect herself.
[*]Rudy comes into the kitchen with his pants still partly down.
[*]Meredith now terrified slashes at Rudy.
[*]Rudy wrestles the knife from her but cuts his hand in the process.
[*]Meredith screams and retreats to her bedroom.
[*]Rudy now enraged chases her to the bedroom.
This sequence cannot be correct. First, there is no sign of violence in the laundry room, the kitchen or the passage leading to her room. The passage even contains an obstacle (a clothes dryer) which would have impeded the chase and the kitchen is likewise a confined space.
Second, where is the knife used to slash Rudy? Third, where in the kitchen is the blood resulting from the slashing? Fourth, Steve Moore has explained that attackers using knives lacking a hilt (like a flick knife) often cut themselves in a manner consistent with Rudy's hand injury because the hand slips onto the blade during the attack. Fifth, there is no sign of disturbance resulting from a struggle at the bedroom door (to force it open). The first encounter is at the head of the bed. Sixth, the scream is now placed at just after 9.00 p.m. None of the witnesses' evidence can be stretched to fit a scream at that time. Seventh, one might expect Rudy to pull his own knife rather than wrestle with Meredith for control of hers (with ensuing kitchen-located bloodbath).
[*]Rudy leaves finger streaks on the wall with the blood from his bleeding fingers.
[*]Meredith tries to escape by going around him.
[*]Rudy tackles her and stabs her.
On 18/12/2007 the scientific police performed an elaborate scraping of the blood in these finger streaks. I will bet you a shedload of Second Life currency (is anyone still living there?) or Euros (same thing) that is Meredith's blood, transferred to her hand when she raised it to her throat as Rudy stabbed her. As you seem to think the first stabbing was in the opposite corner of the room you have to explain the blotch more or less immediately below the handprint, not the stain transferred to that area by the police, but the one filmed on 02/11/2007. That is Meredith's blood.
I rest my case.