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Why We Haven't Met Aliens Yet

Hmmm, well, if interstellar travel is possible (the energy required alone is just enormous) But I will go along with your idea here. IF we assume they have found a way to travel without using massive amounts of energy AND have knowledge of suitable star systems capable of supporting them AND once reaching there know of another nearby star and the wash,rinse repeat. It still seems to be highly unlikely that they could've gotten too far by now.

In my estimation (fancy way of saying I'm guessing!) We have no way of knowing if our evolutionary progression from single cells to complex thinking critters is the norm for life (as far as the time frame goes). If , for the sake of this debate, we say it does take a similar amount of time. the resulting technological advancement would be relative to how much earlier or later their world cooled than ours did. True they could've avoided global cataclysms that may have contributed to the slow pace of our brains advancement and have gotten smarter millions and millions of years before we did... it still seems like even with that big of a head start that the amount of resources needed to do these sorts of things would be just vast.

As far as spotting them out there. Our galaxies are so far apart and the stars so far apart ... It just seems like SETI is really our only hope for many tens if not hundreds of thousands of years.
 
You might find this bit from wiki clarifies things a little, Logic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Basis
The Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways. The first is, "Why are no aliens or their artifacts physically here?" If interstellar travel is possible, even the "slow" kind nearly within the reach of Earth technology, then it would only take from 5 million to 50 million years to colonize the galaxy.[11] This is a relatively small amount of time on a geological scale, let alone a cosmological one. Since there are many stars older than the Sun, or since intelligent life might have evolved earlier elsewhere, the question then becomes why the galaxy has not been colonized already. Even if colonization is impractical or undesirable to all alien civilizations, large-scale exploration of the galaxy is still possible; the means of exploration and theoretical probes involved are discussed extensively below. However, no signs of either colonization or exploration have been generally acknowledged.
The argument above may not hold for the universe as a whole, since travel times may well explain the lack of physical presence on Earth of alien inhabitants of far away galaxies. However, the question then becomes "Why do we see no signs of intelligent life?" since a sufficiently advanced civilization[Note 1] could potentially be observable over a significant fraction of the size of the observable universe.[12] Even if such civilizations are rare, the scale argument indicates they should exist somewhere at some point during the history of the universe, and since they could be detected from far away over a considerable period of time, many more potential sites for their origin are within range of our observation. However, no incontrovertible signs of such civilizations have been detected.
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Bolding is mine.
 
I think that there are many assumptions in Fermi's Paradox in regards to the amount of available planets for colonization . How long it would take, how much energy would be required and the willingness of those to go. Plus, what if we discover that we can't travel that fast because of micro meteorites turning our vessels into shreds before we've gone anywhere? Not to mention the problems with accelerating and decelerating at such speeds (by the way anyone ever notice how odd it is the accelerate has 2 c's but decelerate only has one? ).

I dunno, I'm just skeptical that the practice will come as easily as the theory dictates it can....
 
Wait a second. Why would there be a correlation between how fast things orbot around a star and space colonization? Not to mention we need to look at the time frames in a different manner.

What we know:

the universe is 13 and some billion years old

The Sun and solar system are around 4.6 billion years old

the earth cooled enough to support life around 3.5 billion years ago and we have confirmation of life at 2.7 billion

multicellular life arrives 1.2 billion years ago

550 million years ago we have the Cambrian explosion that sees the big boom in diversity of life

1-2 million years ago we get the arrival of human like creatures and we only have modern smart humans for the past 200,000 years

They would have to be more than 3% ahead of us.(more like 7.5%) Since they are from the same galaxy as us, they would have had to have their planet develop life at a much earlier time to account for a 300 million year head start on technology. ( and that's assuming everything on their home planet went exactly as it did on earth, which is the only example we have to base these things on).

I know that's not really that much in the grand scheme of the universe. But I think in our galaxy 7.5% is a substantial number.

Not to mention that they would have had to survive long enough to develop said technology!
 
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There are (second and third generation) stars that are significantly older than the sun.
Multi-cellular life arose pretty late, and large, complex animal life has only been around for, what, 500 million years? It certainly seems like chance that it took several billion years for that to happen. Maybe that's considerably faster than average, but let's say there's a 1/100 chance/ billion years that microbial life develops into something like animal life. That still leaves 1/30 cases or so where it comes about faster than us. (and this is assuming we're significantly faster than average).

Anyway, regarding the speeds of planetary orbits and the speed of colonization: his idea is that once a species has colonised it's solar system, it's easy to drift off to another star on a comet that's already going pretty fast. Give it a bit of a push, or a gravitational assist, and viola, you've got an interstellar craft.

At least, I think that's the idea.
 
That seems like an awful lot of work when compared to just building something that can move fast, scan and map incoming objects and plot avoidance trajectories. Though that sounds really hard, using comets as space vehicles sounds wayyy harder.
 
LogicFail said:
I think that one thing nobody has considered (well in this thread) is that IF there happened to be an alien lifeform that had the ability to fold space and come to earth AND they knew we where here. Why the blazes would they want to?

Seriously, aside from the raiding of resources, the scientific enlightenment or practical joking, why would any alien species want to come have a sit down with a rather un-evolved bunch of goobers like us earthlings? We bring nothing to the table really, not yet anyway. In a few hundred thousand years we should be great to hang out with, but right now we would be about as interesting to them as ants. (well I guess there might be some alien entemologists who would be interested in us)

As far as resources go, I would think there would be plenty of unoccupied planets closer to home they could raid for all the minerals and water they could get their hands on. All without the trouble and expense of dealing with angry natives.

So unless the visitors from space are here to study us for their alien zoo and/or college classes. I find no motivating factor to be preparing for the kind and just rule of our new overlords quite yet!
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Personally I would think in the opposite direction Aside from scientific curiosity, which for us at least is a major incentive to stick our nose in dangerous places, I would think that simple curiosity would be a huge motivating factor. Assuming that intelligent races aren't ubiquitous, of course. If an extraterrestrial civilization could reach us, and hasn't reached many other civilizations, I would think they would be drooling on their fangs to study us up close. One would think that a star faring civilization had intense curiosity and yearning for knowledge as a species trait.
 
LogicFail said:
I think that one thing nobody has considered (well in this thread) is that IF there happened to be an alien lifeform that had the ability to fold space and come to earth AND they knew we where here. Why the blazes would they want to?

Seriously, aside from the raiding of resources, the scientific enlightenment or practical joking, why would any alien species want to come have a sit down with a rather un-evolved bunch of goobers like us earthlings?
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Note that the possibility of resource raiding implies that our aliens' travel technology is both very fast and very cheap. (Analogy here to the US buying low-cost stuff from China - not feasible without really cheap transport.)

Possibilities:

1) Insurance.

a) They want to make sure that we are not possessed of racial xenophobia, which would lead us to try our hand at genocide when we encounter other species.

b) Assuming that we are not a conscious threat, we might still need monitoring/mentoring. For instance, we might try to explore the neighborhood with Von Neumann probes, and if those suckers are not done right they can become a real nuisance. At worst, conjure up Sabrehagen's Berserker stories.

2) Entertainment. The Wars of Earth is wildly popular throughout the Federation.

3) Allies. The concerns of 1a or 1b were not adequately dealt with at some point in the past, and there is a war on out there.
 
LogicFail said:
Seriously, aside from the raiding of resources, the scientific enlightenment or practical joking, why would any alien species want to come have a sit down with a rather un-evolved bunch of goobers like us earthlings?
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They may actually have a higher opinion of us than you do. For example, they may feel that it's worth the effort to communicate with us. After all, if they can travel the stars they've probably encountered other civilizations, and may have experience in dealing with less technologically advanced species. Or, they may be vastly more benevolant than you seem to be, and actually want us to experience the wonders of interstellar travel. I've seen things on this planet that you probably wouldn't believe, and I know enough about xenogeology to know that other planets are vastly more weird. They may think the same thing, and my consider the Earth a convenient tourist attraction.

Or, they may be spying on us. Nations constantly spy on each other--our friends and those neutral to us as much as our foes, if not more so. Not hard to imagine that there'd be some interstellar espionage going on if there's even one interstellar civilization (ever hear of corporate espionage?), and keeping an eye on potentially hostile neighbors, or potential allies, is always a good thing. I mean, which nation on Earth wouldn't trade a few nukes for an interstellar spaceship? Just one of those things would make that nation the supriem military power on this planet, assuming it had workable weaons systems. For the aliens, it'd be the equivalent of trading a junk car for an AK47--not necessarily something you want to do immediately, but knowing you can certainly is useful.
 
Dinwar said:
They may actually have a higher opinion of us than you do. For example, they may feel that it's worth the effort to communicate with us. After all, if they can travel the stars they've probably encountered other civilizations, and may have experience in dealing with less technologically advanced species. Or, they may be vastly more benevolant than you seem to be, and actually want us to experience the wonders of interstellar travel. I've seen things on this planet that you probably wouldn't believe, and I know enough about xenogeology to know that other planets are vastly more weird. They may think the same thing, and my consider the Earth a convenient tourist attraction.

Or, they may be spying on us. Nations constantly spy on each other--our friends and those neutral to us as much as our foes, if not more so. Not hard to imagine that there'd be some interstellar espionage going on if there's even one interstellar civilization (ever hear of corporate espionage?), and keeping an eye on potentially hostile neighbors, or potential allies, is always a good thing. I mean, which nation on Earth wouldn't trade a few nukes for an interstellar spaceship? Just one of those things would make that nation the supriem military power on this planet, assuming it had workable weaons systems. For the aliens, it'd be the equivalent of trading a junk car for an AK47--not necessarily something you want to do immediately, but knowing you can certainly is useful.
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Are you saying you think they are presently doing any of these things? "they may be...."

I'm just throwing stuff on the wall here not making proclamations. In the long run, until we get evidence, it's all just speculation. I'm making suggestions of POSSIBLE problems with the idea of alien contact in the near future. (I am very capable of being wrong in 5 minutes if they land in Venice and declare that they exist (I would go to Venice if I were them! ))

But like Monk said, "You may be right, but I don't think so"
 
Roboramma said:
Why hasn't that sphere reached earth yet? It's not good to say "they can use the resources near home" they've already used them all.
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I don't think it is possible to use up all the local resources. If a civilization is as advanced as you posit, all they need to develop every resource they need is energy. All they need for that is a star. Our sun, in the context of the universe, is not all that great an energy source so I don't think resource usage is a valid reason for coming here.
 
LogicFail said:
Are you saying you think they are presently doing any of these things? "they may be...."
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No. I'm merely speculating on reasons why they may wish to contact us, using informal English.

I've not seen any evidence of alien life. I have seen enough evidence that life is pretty easy to get started to tentatively conclude that life likely exists on other planets, but we don't have enough data to say anything more at this point. We can't even DEFINE life yet, so speculating on whether an alien species is waiting to trade with is is just that--speculation. They may be incapable of understanding the concept of trade, or we may be fundamentally unable to communicate with them in any way even if we're in the same area. I'm not even convinced the life will be carbon-based, and I'm fairly certain there's at least some forms of non-Earthlike life out there (there are some on Earth, such as prions, so it's hardly an unreasonable speculation).

The whole point of my post is that you've got as much evidence for your posible problems as I do for my posible reasons, and that you're basing your speculations on predjudices more than logic. The fact that you refer to humans as an "unevolved bunch of goobers" nicely illustrates that.

SezMe said:
I don't think it is possible to use up all the local resources.
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Agreed. "Resource" is an economic term--as soon as it's economically viable to do X with Y, Y becomes a resource.
 
Dinwar said:
No. I'm merely speculating on reasons why they may wish to contact us, using informal English.

I've not seen any evidence of alien life. I have seen enough evidence that life is pretty easy to get started to tentatively conclude that life likely exists on other planets, but we don't have enough data to say anything more at this point. We can't even DEFINE life yet, so speculating on whether an alien species is waiting to trade with is is just that--speculation. They may be incapable of understanding the concept of trade, or we may be fundamentally unable to communicate with them in any way even if we're in the same area. I'm not even convinced the life will be carbon-based, and I'm fairly certain there's at least some forms of non-Earthlike life out there (there are some on Earth, such as prions, so it's hardly an unreasonable speculation).

The whole point of my post is that you've got as much evidence for your posible problems as I do for my posible reasons, and that you're basing your speculations on predjudices more than logic. The fact that you refer to humans as an "unevolved bunch of goobers" nicely illustrates that.

Agreed. "Resource" is an economic term--as soon as it's economically viable to do X with Y, Y becomes a resource.
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I was pretty sure you weren't claiming you had, but you never know!

Unevolved bunch of goobers is how I would expect we would be viewed by a hyper technological group of space hopping aliens who came upon our little blue ball RIGHT NOW! I don't think that's what we are. i think we are doing about as well as can be expected considering how little time we've been a species. I'm no anti-humanist! :-)
 
LogicFail said:
Unevolved bunch of goobers is how I would expect we would be viewed by a hyper technological group of space hopping aliens who came upon our little blue ball RIGHT NOW!
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Ah. And why, exactly, are you convinced that visiting aliens must be "hyper thechnological"?

They could just as well be a race no more advanced than us who made a deal with a more advanced race, and set out to try their luck at trade.

They could be a fairly primitive race hired as mercenaries by a more advanced, but less warlike, race, who took their pay in less-capable ships and went aviking.

This assumes that the ships have a sufficiently smart computer system that the user interface is fairly simple.
 
Well, I'm basing my assumption that those who create said technology would be the ones to use it first. Thus making them the most often users (and for a longer period of time) then any said borrowers of simplified versions of the technology.

it's the same reason that the old timer snake hunters in west Texas find more grey banded kingsnakes, they've been out there longer and have covered more miles than the younguns.
 
I'm still wondering why they'd consider us "unevolved goobers". After all, we don't consider tribes in the Amazon to be a bunch of unevolved goobers just because they aren't at our level of technological prowes. In fact, the whole Noble Savage mythos flies in the face of such a notion. It's entirely plausible that the aliens could consider our existence idealic, and want our culture to remain untarnished by their advanced civilization. They may consuder US the smart ones--precisely because we don't have interstellar spaceships, just as some in our culture consider the tribes in the Amazon and sub-Saharin Africa the smart ones, because they lack technology.

Or they could consider us smart because we've figured out how to use some tech they never have. It's entirely plausible that we went on completely different routes in our technological advancement. In "The Wealth of Nations" Adam Smith outlines how random our progress has been--to the point where a major technological breakthrough came about because a boy wanted to play with his friends, so he tied a string from one part of a machine that he was supposed to be watching to another. If the boy had been more dilligent, our tech would be a few decades worse than it is now. Or, let's say that the aliens never had a religion that said "God created everything is it is, and will be, eternally". They'd have adopted evolution and genetics instantly--meaning they could be vastly further ahead in biotech than us. Alternatively, they could have no idea how to play with genes, or consider it something that's not worth devoting much in the way of resources into, so we may be more advanced. They may be able to regenerate organs naturally, like a sea slug, so their solution to disease may have been to simply remove the organ and grow a new one--meaning they'd consider our understanding of medicine nothing short of meraculous. "Wait, you guys can actually save your organs when they become infected? You mean you still have your ORIGINAL stomach?!" It's no more far-fetched than the amazment I've seen in the eyes of extremely intelligent people when my grandfather calmly explained that he needed a block of steel to fabricate a part for an International H tractor that was no longer manufactured.

And that's all assuming the aliens evolved on a planet. We know organic molecules form in space--I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some life-form that arose in the void.

My point is, there's simply not enough data to speculate on what an alien race would think of us. We can't know.
 
i wouldn't be surprised if after receiving our TV and music signals they wouldn't come to the "unevolved goobers" conclusion!

Just having a little fun here with the goobers part ya know! No need to take it too far!
 
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