Back a bit Newt gave a talk where he alleged that secular Americans were actively trying to let Muslim terrorists win and take over the USA.
Gingrich is about sixty years older than the two children he mentioned. So, in
his speech to
Hagee's evangelical/charismatic church, Gingrich claimed that he is "convinced" that by 2070 the radical Islamists who today make up less than 0.6% of the population will grow to a large enough plurality (or a majority) to "potentially" "dominate" the U.S. Lets look at some numbers.
How large does a voting bloc have to be to dominate a country as large and populous as the U.S.? 10%? 20%? More? Do the children count, or do they not because they can't vote?
The U.S. population is estimated to be about 363,500,000 in 2030.
http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/populations/population-projections/ProjectionsStateAgeSex2005.html
The Pew Foundation has projected the U.S. Muslim population to 2030. They estimate it to be about 6.2 million then. "The Muslim share of the U.S. population (adults and children) is projected to grow from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2030, making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today."
http://pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-americas.aspx
I know there are plenty of people in the U.S., including many Christians, who think that Jews run the country today. So maybe it wouldn't be much of a stretch for them to believe that a different 1.7% could run things in another two decades. But it's still balderdash in either case.
By 2070, the population here is projected to be around 463,000,000 people.
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/nation/summary/np-t5-g.txt
I haven't found any actual estimates for religious demographics in 2070. But if we were to continue Pew's trend of a doubling of the
percentage every 20 years, by 2050 it would be 3.4% and by 2070 it would be 6.8%. If we double the
absolute number, the percentage by 2070 would be 5.4%.
I doubt the growth rate would remain that high for that long. First, it is easier to have a high growth rate when your absolute numbers are smaller than it is when they are larger. Look at Canada's forecasts in the Pew report for an example. Second, my projection does not account for the number of Americans who will leave their childhood upbringings in Islam, as today's kids and tomorrow's grandkids assimilate into an increasingly secular society. As Pew says "By 2030, … more than four-in-ten of the Muslims in the U.S. (44.9%) are expected to be nativeborn," up from 35.5% circa 2010. That's a lot more room for people to move away from the mosque. Thirdly, today's Muslim Americans are mainly first-generation immigrants and probably have a higher birthrate than their daughters and grand-daughters will have. And finally, these estimates are high in terms of imagining political power because they include people under 18, who can't vote, are not likely to be able to vote by 2070, and usually make up about a quarter of any population.
So, 6.8% is similar to the proportion of Historically Black Churches in the U.S. today (6.9% according to Pew). And 5.4% is the percentage of Mainline Methodists today. I don't see any domination by either of them now, so why should such small numbers dominate us later?
Percentages from this PDF:
http://religions.pewforum.org/pdf/report2-religious-landscape-study-full.pdf , page 110.
In addition, my wild projection is for the
total number of Muslims in the U.S. The number of Islamists would have to be smaller, and the number of radical Islamists (the group Gingrich identified) would be even smaller than that.
I suspect that Gingrich was consciously lying to curry favor with a particular audience. I don't think he is so stupid as to actually believe what he was telling them.