Assad might be a reluctant dictator.
I think his older brother was groomed for the role, but he died in a car crash.
He's been put in charge of the family business, and doing the best he can.
He is faced with an interesting dilemma:
The people are rising up. If he acts soft, the uprising will keep increasing and his ass is toast.
So conventional wisdom (in dictator circles) is to put your foot down. Hard.
Do that early enough and you knock the wind out of the insurrection (Tienanmen square, Hama).
But if you resort to massive violence and the people rise up regardless, you end up looking like an angry teacher powerlessly yelling at an unruly classroom.
Assad has reached this point. He's had his troops fire into crowds, he's made people disappear, he's had kids tortured. The people are still in the streets.
And the whole ruling class of Syria is looking at him. Will he manage to get this under control and return things to normal? All those generals, intelligence chiefs and ministers (although most of them are his direct family, I hear).
They're looking at Egypt. They could sacrifice Assad, put him on trial and then find a new role in the new Syria. I mean, after the revolution, Syria will still have an army, police, ministries and the secret service.
Must be an interesting year for Bashar.
