Post-revolution polls in Egypt

trustbutverify said:
How could all of these JREF ME experts be so profoundly wrong?
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I'll be sure to tell my relatives in Egypt not to worry about the election results, because at least they mean trustbutverify and WildCat get to feel smugly superior to people on an Internet message board that they disagree with.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Are you taking pleasure in this?
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ANTPogo said:
I'll be sure to tell my relatives in Egypt not to worry about the election results, because at least they mean trustbutverify and WildCat get to feel smugly superior to people on an Internet message board that they disagree with.
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Hey, I'm the one that gets called a racist.muslim-hater because I pointed out the warning signs while others ignored them. It's vindication, not glee. If the Islamists get 50% of the seats non-muslims and secular muslims will be shafted in the new constitution. They'll probbaly threow some token language in there saying how freedom of religion is guaranteed, followed by language elsewhere saying how no law can be contrary to Islam. Israel should be worried about everything from Egyptian complicity in smuggling heavy weapons to Gaza to outright military hostilities.
 
WildCat said:
Hey, I'm the one that gets called a racist.muslim-hater because I pointed out the warning signs while others ignored them. It's vindication, not glee. If the Islamists get 50% of the seats non-muslims and secular muslims will be shafted in the new constitution. They'll probbaly threow some token language in there saying how freedom of religion is guaranteed, followed by language elsewhere saying how no law can be contrary to Islam. Israel should be worried about everything from Egyptian complicity in smuggling heavy weapons to Gaza to outright military hostilities.
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And as far back as February, I was speculating (and worried about) the same thing. I don't feel vindicated...just even more worried than I was nine months ago.

Though I still think it's more likely that the military will retain control, regardless of the election results. Not that that is going to do a whole lot of good for the non-Islamists and other secularists, since the military doesn't give two craps about that sort of thing if it means they have to ally with the Islamists to keep control.

As I read on a movie poster once, this basically boils down to "whoever wins, we lose".

EDIT: I'm sorry, but on this particular matter, I can't even pretend to have a disinterested, unbiased point of view. I'm too personally invested in too much of what's going on, and that will inevitably color everything I post about it.
 
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It'a even worse than it firsat appears:
The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.

That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution, affirming their fears that they would be unable to compete with Islamists who emerged from the Mubarak years organized and with an established following. Poorly organized and internally divided, the liberal parties could not compete with Islamists disciplined by decades as the sole opposition to Mr. Mubarak. “We were washed out,” said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, one of the most politically active of the group.

Although this week’s voting took place in only a third of Egypt’s provinces, they included some of the nation’s most liberal precincts — like Cairo, Port Said and the Red Sea coast — suggesting that the Islamist wave is likely to grow stronger as the voting moves into more conservative rural areas in the coming months. (Alexandria, a conservative stronghold, also has voted.)
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/world/middleeast/voting-in-egypt-shows-mandate-for-islamists.html

Saudi Arabia with pyramids. :(
 
ANTPogo said:
I'll be sure to tell my relatives in Egypt not to worry about the election results, because at least they mean trustbutverify and WildCat get to feel smugly superior to people on an Internet message board that they disagree with.
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I don't feel smugly superior to anyone. However, when the astoundingly disturbing results of a recent Egyptian poll were discussed on this forum, the self appointed ME experts dismissed this important indicator and ridiculed those who brought it up as a danger signal.

The warning signs were clear and distinct.
 
So, how long before they cut off gas delivery to Israel?
How long before they protest Israel for not supplying electricity to Gaza and the West Bank?
What does "annulling" a peace accord mean? Re-militarising the Sinai?
If they do that, Israel will have to keep a standing army on that border, an option that in the long run is much more expensive and dangerous than removing the Egyptian army from Sinai by force.
 
Yes, it is. But it's also sad when people appear to be choosing to replace a repressive secular dictatorship with a repressive religious autocracy.
 
No Alliance With Ultraconservatives, Islamist Party Says

CAIRO — The Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm on Thursday distanced itself from a more conservative Islamist party as early vote tallies indicated that the two factions would claim the two largest roles in the first Parliament elected since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

Responding to reports that the two Islamist parties could together make up a numerical majority of the new Parliament, the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party denied that there was any “alleged alliance” with the ultraconservative party, Al Nour, to form “an Islamist government.”

The statement appeared to be aimed at quieting the anxiety of Egyptian liberals and Western governments about the unexpectedly large share of the vote apparently won by Al Nour, which was formed by the ultraconservative Islamists known as Salafis. It also reflected the fine line that the Muslim Brotherhood is walking as it tries to hold together its most ardent Islamist supporters in the streets without provoking a backlash at home or internationally.
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That's a hopeful sign I suppose, but it's still rather ominous that the Salafis got so much support.
 
I bet if Yusef al-Qaradawi were to run for president he would win by a landslide.

When the Arab Spring started a lot of people were talking about how it's all great news because the Muslim Brotherhood came late to the party. Of course, in any revolutionary situation it is never important who is first there it is who is left standing at the end. The most radical factions always turn up late.

Right now I think the optimists have to hope the Muslim Brotherhood will be in charge because the pessimists/realists are thinking it will be the Salafists.
 
Eddie Dane said:
So, how long before they cut off gas delivery to Israel?
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The gas pipeline has been hit numerous times already, and I don't see this decreasing with these ominous signs in Egypt. Only option now is to expedite Israel's own offshore gas drilling sites.

How long before they protest Israel for not supplying electricity to Gaza and the West Bank?
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Has this happened? Israel should protest about Egypt not supplying their Muslim Brotherhood offshoot, Hamas, with electricity. There. Solved.

What does "annulling" a peace accord mean? Re-militarising the Sinai?
If they do that, Israel will have to keep a standing army on that border, an option that in the long run is much more expensive and dangerous than removing the Egyptian army from Sinai by force.
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Sinai has been partially re-militarized with Israel's agreement to fight the increasing terrorism in the Sinai. Further re-militarization would have the UN step in and hopefully with better resolve than in the late 60's/early 70's.

Israel can't go in otherwise it would be a full-fledged war.

All in all, Egyptians apparently don't have one iota of foresight and have shot themselves in the foot. I find it strange that the response to a dictatorship is at best a theocracy...
 
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