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Inflation!! No wait...

psionl0 said:
Or should we accept official statistics without question just because they are official?
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What you are asking is a good question. I would never say that we should accept official statistics without question. But what I would say is that for certain issues, it's much more efficient to use meta-reasoning and meta-analysis than to get down deep in the weeds and check every fact by yourself. This is why my default assumption is that the general consensus of experts is probably mostly right.

For example, if you want to independently figure out conclusively whether Shadow Stats or the government is correct, or if they're both wrong, you might have to start by getting a degree in economics and then doing a lot of independent research. Then if you want to independently figure whether Global Warming is real, you might have to start by getting a degree in climate science and then doing a lot of independent research.

Do you see what I am getting at?
 
Puppycow said:
Do you see what I am getting at?
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We don't have the resources to determine the truth of all the information we receive so we should go along with the official sources unless there is good reason not to. Am I seeing correctly? (This is pretty much how I paraphrased it in post #21).

If so then it is just a matter of whether the more favourable inflation figures resulting from a change in calculation methods constitutes a good enough reason to question what the officials are doing.
 
Muldur said:
Those numbers are full of crap!

Inflation is up...way up and a lot more than 3%. My grocery bill alone is up over 30% from a year ago (for the same basket of goods).
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The prices of specific goods does not automatically follow inflation exactly. Inflation can be negative while supply is decreasing, still causing an item to be more expensive. Or some sellers may just be greedy.

Since you're talking about groceries, you might look at droughts and lack of farm workers.
 
psionl0 said:
We don't have the resources to determine the truth of all the information we receive so we should go along with the official sources unless there is good reason not to. Am I seeing correctly? (This is pretty much how I paraphrased it in post #21).
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That's not quite what I said. It's not "official" sources that we should believe, but "the general consensus of experts." And, now that I think about it, that should be put in context. If we lived in, say, North Korea, then the "official" sources would not be credible, although it might not be safe to say that to the wrong person. But we live in a relatively free society where scholars and journalists are allowed to check these things and conduct independent reporting and research. If there was a serious red flag, I think that skepticism among scholars and the media would be more widespread, and not limited to one eccentric guy with a website and a few paranoid conspiracy-minded anti-government types that follow him.

Also, when I say "experts" I mean either academics or other people in empirical knowledge-related fields. Because I don't just "go along" with what they say. I do at least try to read and follow the arguments and thereby assess the credibility of each expert as I encounter them. Over time, I develop my own opinions about which ones are credible and which are not in this way.

If so then it is just a matter of whether the more favourable inflation figures resulting from a change in calculation methods constitutes a good enough reason to question what the officials are doing.
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I don't discount the motive that politicians would have to massage the numbers, but I think that there are too many people involved in producing these stats and vetting the methods by which they are produced for them to get away with it.
 
I don't think you are disagreeing with me as much as you would like the reader to conclude. The basic philosophy of not dismissing official statements out of hand but being willing to question them is the most sensible attitude to take.

ETA The fact that lots of independent people may be involved in the collection and publication of data does not necessarily ensure the reliability of that data.
 
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the other way to look at this is to say that if the "new improved" way of calculating it produces lower numbers for everything (and it does) then all of our historical benchmarks are inaccurate.

as you've seen on Shadowstats, official inflation is noticeably less than the old way would be telling us it is, and unemployment is staggeringly less the way its worked out today.

therefore, everything we know about previous historical history and events, with which we compare the current situation, first needs to be back calculated, to be able to compare with today?

after all, if by using the old methods, inflation today is currently nearer 10% than 5, and unemployment is over 20% not under 10, one can say that things now are just as bad as in the great depression?

to make valid comparisons, surely we have to recalculate what was going on in the 30's - 70's too?

this would obviously lead to downward revisions of how bad things were back then, and/or imply that things are every bit as bad now, as in the great depression?

it is my opinion that governments never change any rules or methodology to a system that will reflect worse on them moving forwards.

but removing my cynicism from the equation, all i'm saying is that if using the new methodology paints a better picture now, then the previous ways were inaccurate and should be now recalculated for prior years before attempting to compare periods in history?

otherwise its comparing apples with oranges.

either today is much worse than they are telling us, or using new ways of working it out, the great depression wasnt nearly as bad, they cant have it both ways.

under the modern methodology, the great depression wasn't really a depression at all, it was just a normal recession (like today) and Volker was completely out of his mind to raise interest rates to 20% when the accurate inflation figures (back calculated) were only 7% not 17%.

I dont care which way they want to frame it, as long as its the same for both periods.
 
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Sceptic-PK said:
A lazy 15 minute Google indicated to me that Shadowstats isn't very credible.
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uh huh. and a lazy 15 minute google indicates to me that government figures aren't very credible.

see how this works? :) ...going to need a bit more than that I'm afraid.
 
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The fact that it's a no-name website maintained by a nobody (who doesn't even have a relevant bachelors) which has exactly little impact on markets, policies, the real world etc is enough for me. There is plenty of criticism available online re SS, but I don't care enough to hunt all the way through it just yet. I must go play Skyrim. I doubt you'd be too interested in the criticism anyway, your worldview is far too invested in SS being accurate.

The Shadow Stats dorks who believe the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the inflation numbers have more evidence against them. MIT's Billion Prices Project collects prices completely independently of the BLS, yet it comes up with essentially the same U.S. inflation rate. This graph shows less than a percentage difference after almost three years:

billion-price-project.png


And let's not forget that back in October, Google chief economist Hal Varian reported that Google's inflation measure, the Google Price Index, measured deflation during 2010...

Now ask yourself, which is more likely?

1. Three very different institutions—the BLS, MIT, and Google—are all conspiring to mislead the public
2. One guy—John Williams—is making a living by taking advantage of suckers

I'll give you a hint. Many Shadow Stats followers think the CPI doesn't count food and energy, even though it does. (It's a different measure, core CPI, that ignores food and energy.) Ignorant people are easily scammed.
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http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/06/shadow-stats-debunked-part-ii.html

Lots more where that came from it seems, but my Dark Elf needs to get his murder on.
 
Sceptic-PK said:
The fact that it's a no-name website maintained by a nobody (who doesn't even have a relevant bachelors) which has exactly little impact on markets, policies, the real world etc is enough for me. There is plenty of criticism available online re SS, but I don't care enough to hunt all the way through it just yet. I must go play Skyrim. I doubt you'd be too interested in the criticism anyway, your worldview is far too invested in SS being accurate.

http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/06/shadow-stats-debunked-part-ii.html

Lots more where that came from it seems, but my Dark Elf needs to get his murder on.
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haha no, I told you, for the sake of this conversation I don't care either way, but if the new methodology is so much better, lets go back through history applying it to the great depression, the 70's etc, to get a realistic comparison to today?

you cant have it both ways, and shooting the messenger rather than focusing on the data isnt really good enough.

or are you saying that you don't think he is accurately calculating today's situation using the previous methodology?

I don't have a Batchelors either, and I saw the debt collapse coming when Bernanke Greenspan and 99.9% of your MIT numpties either didnt appear to, (or lied to us) so that holds exactly zero credibility with me either I'm afraid.
 
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Sceptic-PK said:
The fact that it's a no-name website maintained by a nobody (who doesn't even have a relevant bachelors) which has exactly little impact on markets, policies, the real world etc is enough for me. There is plenty of criticism available online re SS, but I don't care enough to hunt all the way through it just yet. I must go play Skyrim. I doubt you'd be too interested in the criticism anyway, your worldview is far too invested in SS being accurate.



http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/06/shadow-stats-debunked-part-ii.html

Lots more where that came from it seems, but my Dark Elf needs to get his murder on.
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I am not saying I believe SGS's data, but 1 percent point difference over 3 year then fast forwarding 30 years and you indeed get such discrepancy difference as SGS.

You are not presenting as solid an argument agaisnt SGS as you think you do...

ETA: SGS data has also only a percent point difference after 5 years, even less, with the deviation getting greater and greater with time.
 
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Sceptic-PK said:
A lazy 15 minute Google indicated to me that Shadowstats isn't very credible.
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AFAIK they are producing what they say, but as people have already pointed out there is no reason to believe the formula for calculating inflation that was used back in the 80’s is superior to the one in use today and a lot of reason to believe it’s inferior.

There is also a certain element of cherry picking going on. They seem to have gone back and looked at all the different methodologies the US has used to calculate inflation and picked the one that best suited the arguments they wanted to advance.
 
Sceptic-PK said:
Lots more where that came from it seems, but my Dark Elf needs to get his murder on.
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My Breton is out looking to join up with the Dark Brotherhood right now. Unfortunately tonight is one of the days for my static group in Rift, and I have a big project at work that will take up most of Fri/Sat so I doubt I will get to play much Skyrim until Sunday. :(
 
My father was suspicious of the CPI calculation of france, and maintained for decades his own "CPI" index based on what was needed for the family, in each separate category rather than putting them together : clothing, shoes, food, doctor, car, insurance, pet, and a few truly bizarre item I don't recall, and later computer stuff. Whereas it was true that calculated inflation *did* follow closely the government number when mixed together, for some item it was clear that poor people would feel the shaft much more than others. The only numbers I remember was him showing me a chart on food , with low inflation, then sweets with high inflation in staircase figure, and house which went thru the roof , some instance of stuff which actually "deflated" like electronics. The rest I can't remember.

What I can remember is that he could mix and match those number in any number of way to make it look like there was a high inflation, normal inflation or even deflation (ETA you know the drill : there are lie , damned lie and statistic, so by manipulating what's going into the CPI you can make ti say what you wish).
 
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lomiller said:
My Breton is out looking to join up with the Dark Brotherhood right now. Unfortunately tonight is one of the days for my static group in Rift, and I have a big project at work that will take up most of Fri/Sat so I doubt I will get to play much Skyrim until Sunday. :(
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Played rift with a cleric until Lv36 or something then I gave up. I dunno, somehow I felt too lonely, there was never anybody playing on. I have a blast with Skyrim through, going on a quest for a daedric weapon this night, while holding on the dark brotehrhood first tier quest, thief guild first tier, first tier mage quest. And various assorted crazy quest I am only starting.

Main Story ? Oh that ? I have only gotten the one
asking me to meet the greybeard
and not yet done it. I am pretty sure I am at the start of the main story.

Oh dear, oh dear, what a greeeeat game.
 
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