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Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Dougm said:
Not to jump on this totally from an innocence perspective, because I can accept the fact that the general public, in Italy, and elsewhere, has not studied the case indepth. However, it appears to me that, if one were doing some statistical grouping with this survey, we would have the following:

Wrong decision:

* Guilty, bad decision -- 18% +
* Result of US pressure -- 16%
= 34%

Correct decision to acquit:

* Guilty, but not enough evidence -- 33% +
* Latest example of injustice in Italy -- 22% +
* Innocent to begin with -- 11%
= 66%

Unless I read this incorrectly, the poll means that 66% of the respondents are saying they agree with the decision, regardless of their POV of guilt of innocence. Am I right?

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No.
On what ground do you place the 22% ("injustice") among the people who believe it was a correct decision?
 
pilot padron said:
The scant 11% believing in innocence from the beginning is of course the salient point for me.

I mention that with no gloating, and only a small sense of satisfaction.
This, because such statistical endeavors have obvious shortcomings.

Nevertheless, to me it is very significant that apparently only 11% of respondents agree with what is at best a very, very strong majority opinion here.
And at worst, simply a very long in tooth, very well worn talking point with near zero factual foundation.
Yet one that gets unwarranted attention and undue dissemination here.

A talking point that is unquestionably repeated ad nauseam here.
A talking point that often is combined with plentiful insults.
Insults directed to anyone favoring the views of 89% of above respondents.
Generic insults of course, so as to be MA acceptable.

With no personal satisfaction nor gloating intended, I close with a simple observation supported by the survey.
The ignorance so widely attributed to persons favoring guilt apparently is not confined to the guilters still here.(both of us)
Nor to the (hated) haters at PMF/TJMK who are all usually dismissed here as idiots and morons anyway.

And a BTW:
Rose, your impartiality and willingness to share information that is contrary to your own beliefs is a rare character trait in such Forums;here and 'elsewhere'.

May I again applaud you and your arguments for integrity as well as exemplary content, courtesy, and presentation.
Indeed, a model for all of us.
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However... it looks like there were less than 200 participants in the poll. I hardly think this number of voters represents much of anything.
 
RoseMontague said:
An Umbria24 poll asking for an opinion on the acquittal:

Guilty, bad decision 18%
Guilty, but not enough evidence 33%
Latest example of injustice in Italy 22%
Result of US pressure 16%
Innocent from the beginning 11%
Click to expand...


Note that there are only 190* respondents. Note also that each choice is somewhat leading. What would you choose if you were "not sure" due to lack of personal knowledge? There's no choice for that. What about if you thought there was a slim chance they might be guilty, but believed the evidence wasn't strong enough to support guilt? The only choice for that starts with "guilty" which is taken by believers in absolute guilt that you too believe in guilt.

Ultimately this type of poll is about as valid as the polls that CNN decided to take down several times that showed that a majority of respondents believed that Ron Paul has been winning the past several GOP presidential candidate debates. It shows how many of the people who read the article and feel compelled to respond and are not put off by the choices pick each of the choices. It says nothing about those who don't respond, either because they believe justice has been done and don't choose to continue to follow the case, or those who have no opinion or don't like any of the choices.

In my opinion, there are only two clear-cut choices in this poll, guilty or innocent. All the rest are too loaded to have any real meaning, with the possible exception of the not enough evidence one, which is the only one that acknowledges the fact that the evidence does not prove guilt. The fact that so many choose the "result of US pressure" option says a lot about the mindset of the respondents. I agree with several others that the "example of injustice" choice is ambiguous as to whether it is in line with guilt or innocence. Perhaps the connotations of the original language the poll is presented in would make that clear.

By any stretch, the fact that 11% chose the innocent from the beginning does not in any way indicate the truth of that choice. Truth does not depend on numbers. And the 89% who did not pick that are by no means united in their opinions either.
 
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Draca said:
Susan,

This post is a bit sad and disturbing to me. You're such a sharp woman, it is surprising to hear you say that you tend to think men are smarter. Is there a family history behind this? I think there was a male preference in my own family growing up. I think the females in this thread have thoroughly held their own! Very smart women I'm happy to have met. You were disappointed SB and Bard were female because of sharp wit? I would be disappointed because they are a shrew and a sheep. Why would you respect Rose more if they were a man? My own bias on PMF was assuming the posters were men because I mistakenly thought men would be more likely to be online bullies then women. :duck: It didn't have to do with their intelligence. I was wrong though.
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:D Maybe they can start a new site ShrewsSheep&Jackals.com :D
 
Machiavelli said:
No.
On what ground do you place the 22% ("injustice") among the people who believe it was a correct decision?
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Per my edit later, I decided we don't know what they mean by "Injustice". I can see how you could say they are saying that means they think it is an incorrect decision.
 
Machiavelli said:
No.
On what ground do you place the 22% ("injustice") among the people who believe it was a correct decision?
Click to expand...

I interpreted it the same way as DougM, as 22% believing that the acquittal showed the case to be another example of injustice in Italy. It's a bit ambiguous.

If it doesn't mean that, then it's a seriously biased poll, with four guilty options (two of which mean basically the same thing) and only one innocent option - and only people who've always believed they were innocent can choose that one!
 
PDiGirolamo said:
However... it looks like there were less than 200 participants in the poll. I hardly think this number of voters represents much of anything.
Click to expand...

In fact small numbers can have a fairly strong representative value.

The striking answer in this poll is the miserable 11% who express a belief in innocence; as opposed to the 60+ % of voters who express a belief of guilt. You perfecly understand this is meaningful if compared to the majority opinion on this board, or probably to the results if an equivalent poll was made in Seattle.
This poll just show there is a very different perception of facts between the Italian public opinon on one side, and this board or maybe a US public opinion or US-media diffuse opinion on the other side.
 
I actually think that polls of this type are basically meaningless. I would say that no matter what the result is. I would not be surprised if 90% of people in Italy think they are guilty, and it wouldn't matter. That is why we have trials, because a much smaller group of people are chosen to view the evidence indepth, hear testimony, and we, the larger public, are bound by the decision of this smaller group that has much more knowlege of the case.

I'll bet you could stop the average person on the street in the US, and ask them if you thought Amanda was guilty or innocent, and at least half of them would either have no idea, or give a vague opinion based on very limited information. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them still think Amanda is guilty. Fortunately for her and Raffaele, they don't get to vote.
 
katy_did said:
I interpreted it the same way as DougM, as 22% believing that the acquittal showed the case to be another example of injustice in Italy. It's a bit ambiguous.

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Why do interpret it that way? I don't see any reason to interpret it that way.

You would have an argument for your interpretation if the question was made after the first verdict. But the question was asked after the acquittal, speaking about Hellmann's verdict. Thus, to see the 22% as people critical of the Massei verdict and in agreement Hellmann's, is definitley a strain.
I agree that the question is purposely ambiguous: the questioner here in this question does not want to know what the people think about guilt, but what they think about the justice system.
But also the word "malagiustizia" is a very peculiar word, which does not mean "injustice" but rather "corruption of the justice system".
 
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Machiavelli said:
In fact small numbers can have a fairly strong representative value.

The striking answer in this poll is the miserable 11% who express a belief in innocence; as opposed to the 60+ % of voters who express a belief of guilt. You perfecly understand this is meaningful if compared to the majority opinion on this board, or probably to the results if an equivalent poll was made in Seattle.
This poll just show there is a very different perception of facts between the Italian public opinon on one side, and this board or maybe a US public opinion or US-media diffuse opinion on the other side.
Click to expand...

But it doesn't matter, because I guarantee you that, if a random one of the 200 people was quizzed on case details, they would have little knowledge, or have many of them wrong. Because the general public is operating on what they hear and read in the media. So their response if based on a general public opinion, which is really not relevent to much at all. Unless Amanda wanted to run for office or something.
 
Machiavelli said:
Why do interpret it that way? I don't see any reason to interpret it that way.

You would have an argument for your interpretation if the question mas made after the first verdict. But the question was asked after the acquittal, speaking about Hellmann's verdict. Thus, to see the 22% as people critical of the Massei verdict and in agreement Hellmann's, is definitley a strain.
I agree that the question is purposely ambiguous: the questioner here in this question does not want to know what the people think about guilt, but what they think about the justice system.
But also the word "malagiustizia" is a very peculiar word, which does not mean "injustice" but rather "corruption of the justice system".
Click to expand...

I interpreted it that way at first because, in my mind, the term "injustice" in this case refers to people being injustly accused. I would feel the same way if the question was referring to the US, or any other country. An "injustice" to me, means someone falsely accused, not someone that is guilty being acquitted.

But I realize the poll respondents might see it differently.
 
Machiavelli said:
Why do interpret it that way? I don't see any reason to interpret it that way.

You would have an argument for your interpretation if the question mas made after the first verdict. But the question was asked after the acquittal, speaking about Hellmann's verdict. Thus, to see the 22% as people critical of the Massei verdict and in agreement Hellmann's, is definitley a strain.
I agree that the question is purposely ambiguous: the questioner here in this question does not want to know what the people think about guilt, but what they think about the justice system.
But also the word "malagiustizia" is a very peculiar word, which does not mean "injustice" but rather "corruption of the justice system".
Click to expand...

It was just how I interpreted when I first read it (ETA: that the question assumed the acquittal to be correct, and what the case would then say about the justice system). I agree that since it's asking what they think of the acquittal, you could also read it the way you and others are doing. If you're right, then as I said it's odd that there are four options indicating guilt (even if not directly) and only one option for those who've always believed them innocent.

Since I thought they might be guilty to start with, guess I can't vote!
 
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Cosa pensi dell'assoluzione di Amanda Knox e Raffaele Sollecito?

Penso che siano colpevoli ma non c'erano le prove sufficienti per condannarli (33%, 62 Voti)
* L'ennesimo esempio di malagiustizia in Italia (22%, 41 Voti)
* Sono contrario, due assassini in libertà (18%, 35 Voti)
* Sull'assoluzione ha pesato la pressione dei media specialmente Usa (16%, 31 Voti)
* Sono d'accordo, ho sempre pensato che fossero innocenti (11%, 21 Voti)

translation:

What do you think about Amanda Knox’s and Raffaele Sollecito’s acquittal?

I think they are guilty but there was not sufficient proof to convict them 33%
It is the umpteenth case of injustice in Italy 22%
I am against, they are two murderers walking 18%
The pressure of media weighted on the decision, especially of US media 16%
I agree, I always thought they were innocent 11%


as you see:
the correct translation does not really say “from the beginning”;
the questions about their guilt were in fact three: I think they are innocent (I agree), I think they are guilty (I disagree), and I think they are guilty but there is not sufficient proof to convict (out on technicality, respects the decision but believes their guilt);
the other two questions are instead not questions about the suspects, but leave aside the question of guilt and are rather about the system, how fair the trial was or why they were acquitted: both question addresses cause of corruption or unfairness of the system/trial; a number of voters say there is a corruption or malfunction within the system since it often produces those verdicts, a number says there was a role by the US media in the decision;
the number of questions might be biased in respect to the defendants, it is a poll rather oriented to highlight opinions about the trial, but the percentage who states they agree with the verdict is anyway very low;
the percentage of people who explicitly state a belief in their guilt is at least 51%
a high percentage (16 + 22 %) does not explicitly state a belief in guilt, but anyway addresses concerns that the decision was unfair for some reason; it is reasonable to think that most this voters mean Hellmann’s decision, since the question was “what do you think about the acquittal” not “what do you think about the case” , so at least part (the majority) of this 38% voters should be considered “guilters” too (maybe in the same ration of the rest).

I recall that previous polls always gave results in line with these figures (75%- 80% of voters always believed in guilt).
 
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katy_did said:
It was just how I interpreted when I first read it. I agree that since it's asking what they think of the acquittal, you could also read it the way you and others are doing. If you're right, then as I said it's odd that there are four options indicating guilt (even if not directly) and only one option for those who've always believed them innocent.

Since I thought they might be guilty to start with, guess I can't vote!
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Yeah me too. I just assumed they were guilty and I bet most of the other posters here did as well.
 
Dougm said:
But it doesn't matter, because I guarantee you that, if a random one of the 200 people was quizzed on case details, they would have little knowledge, or have many of them wrong. Because the general public is operating on what they hear and read in the media. So their response if based on a general public opinion, which is really not relevent to much at all. Unless Amanda wanted to run for office or something.
Click to expand...

But the media talked a lot about Stefanoni, Mignini, the police, the bra clasp, the videos, the Vecchiotti-Conti report. They said things not different from what you know. Really this result dosn't make you think about anything?
 
Dougm said:
I interpreted it that way at first because, in my mind, the term "injustice" in this case refers to people being injustly accused. I would feel the same way if the question was referring to the US, or any other country. An "injustice" to me, means someone falsely accused, not someone that is guilty being acquitted.

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This is from the beginning a biased concept of injustice :)
Anyway the word for injustice is "ingiustizia", while the word "malagiustizia" is composed with a prefix "mala-" originated from the word "malavita" (organized crime), from which several words can be made: there is a family of Italian words to indicate cases of institutional disfunction/corruption such as "malasanità" (mala + sanità = health care system) = disfunction/corruption in the health care system.
Thus "malagiustizia" rather means a guilty malfunction of the justice system, not an injustice.
 
Caper said:
Yeah me too. I just assumed they were guilty and I bet most of the other posters here did as well.
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Yeah, definitely when I was just reading the occasional news report on the case I assumed they were guilty, and even after I started reading about it more in-depth, it was probably a good few months before I started to believe they just weren't there that night at all (before that I guess I'd have leaned towards the 'guilty but not enough evidence' option on that poll).

That's why I think although those polls might say something about general opinion on the case, most of the people voting will only have read/watched the occasional news story about it, so it can't say anything at all about actual guilt or innocence. There was a time I'd have casually voted guilty as well, from my position of ignorance!
 
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