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When do conspiracy theories jump the shark?

Wow, blanket statements FTW?

It's an important caveat to the statement that no generalisation is true that this includes the generalisation that no generalisation is true. There is perhaps an exception to Nick's generalisation in that there appears to be both merit in, and some suport for, the hypothesis, discussed at length in this forum, that the conviction of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi for the Lockerbie bombing resulted from a conspiracy to manufacture and misrepresent evidence; apart from that, I see no reasonable exceptions.

Dave
 
It's an important caveat to the statement that no generalisation is true that this includes the generalisation that no generalisation is true. There is perhaps an exception to Nick's generalisation in that there appears to be both merit in, and some suport for, the hypothesis, discussed at length in this forum, that the conviction of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi for the Lockerbie bombing resulted from a conspiracy to manufacture and misrepresent evidence; apart from that, I see no reasonable exceptions.

Dave


This is probably an appropriate place to point out that a very useful everyday definition of conspiracy theory is a claim of conspiracy which is made largely by what one Holocaust denier once memorably called "an unbroken chain of hypothesizing", i.e. by theorising and hypothesising a conspiracy rather than substantiating one using evidence. That's what makes a conspiracy theory a conspiracy theory.

For this reason, I don't consider the al-Megrahi discussion to be a conspiracy theory in the classic sense of the term.

Also, one has to factor in the legal aspect, i.e. reasonable doubt. One can have reasonable doubt that al-Megrahi was the bomber, just as one could have reasonable doubt regarding Amanda Knox's guilt. This legal concept doesn't apply the vast majority of conspiracy theories touted in here, although many CTs insist on analogising to the law because the adversarial system is meant to presume innocence, and using the analogy of a courtroom does an awful lot of the work for the CT in clearing the way for their defense-lawyer antics. There is no reasonable doubt regarding the Moon Hoax, 9/11, etc: such doubtsare by now the very definition of an unreasonable, wholly irrational doubt.
 
No Nick........

This is probably an appropriate place to point out that a very useful everyday definition of conspiracy theory is a claim of conspiracy which is made largely by what one Holocaust denier once memorably called "an unbroken chain of hypothesizing", i.e. by theorising and hypothesising a conspiracy rather than substantiating one using evidence. That's what makes a conspiracy theory a conspiracy theory.

For this reason, I don't consider the al-Megrahi discussion to be a conspiracy theory in the classic sense of the term.

Also, one has to factor in the legal aspect, i.e. reasonable doubt. One can have reasonable doubt that al-Megrahi was the bomber, just as one could have reasonable doubt regarding Amanda Knox's guilt. This legal concept doesn't apply the vast majority of conspiracy theories touted in here, although many CTs insist on analogising to the law because the adversarial system is meant to presume innocence, and using the analogy of a courtroom does an awful lot of the work for the CT in clearing the way for their defense-lawyer antics. There is no reasonable doubt regarding the Moon Hoax, 9/11, etc: such doubtsare by now the very definition of an unreasonable, wholly irrational doubt.



No Nick........a useful explanation is that CT deals with the employment of common sense to undermine mainstream bull. Nothing more, but certainly NOTHING LESS!
 
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No Nick........a useful explanation is that CT deals with the employment of common sense to undermine mainstream bull.

And science deals with the employment of facts and sound reasoning to undermine the frequent misconceptions of "common sense."

I've never seen a conspiracy theorist who didn't extoll the unmatched virtue of "common sense" -- i.e., the body of knowledge and judgment expected to be exhibited by your average man on the street just by virtue of having lived a reasonably attentive life. Sadly, because it is difficult to enumerate all that should be subsumed in that body, it is common for conspiracists to believe wrongly that it includes specialized and often highly technical topics that don't readily lend themselves to intuitive comprehension..

Common sense tells you not to text while driving, and to book your holiday travel early. It doesn't tell you anything useful about, say, orbital mechanics. Why? Because the physics of orbital mechanics are quite counterintuitive. They make sense once you study them, but if you approached those problems with only general knowledge, you'd get them wrong. Most beginning students do.

Our physical world is chock full of things that intuition simply tells us the wrong things about. Hence we evolve the scientific method to help free us from incorrect preconceptions that seem logical based on our basic level of human understanding, but fail when studied without bias.

Conspiracists emphasize "common sense" because often the purpose of the conspiracy theory is to create a fantasy world in which the proponent is a hero. If the theory involves specialized sciences in which the proponent is not experienced, then his ignorance must be rationalized within that world. And the way that's typically done is to promote "common sense" as the be-all and end-all of human knowledge, to which even the findings of professionals must submit. And this inevitably produces the shark-jump of dismissing all legitimate experts as biased, deluded, dishonest, and undeserving of merit.

Conversely it leads to conspicuous failure to validate the facts according to simplistic expectations and models the proponent dreams up. These models are overly simple because they derive not from the science, but from "common sense" -- what little the proponent may already know or deduce. The failure of the facts to stack up to "common sense" is the basis of most conspiracy theories. Because "common sense" has been set up as the gold standard of correctness, the explanation for failure "must" be some form of wrongdoing or deception.

Dispensing of "mainstream bull" under this model is almost always a matter of declaring, "It is from the mainstream, therefore it is bull." Rarely if ever is there an exercise to determine rigorously whether the conspiracy theory is bull or not. Any theory that opposes the mainstream is automatically given favor simply for the opposition. Anyone rejecting the conspiracy theory on learned grounds is tarred for violating "common sense" and lumped into the odious "mainstream" -- in conspiracism, a cesspool of conformist thinking. (No conspiracist stops to think that people conform generally to some idea because that's where the facts clearly point.)

It is ironic that "free thinkers" are those who typically invoke "common sense" to support their beliefs, when "common sense" is really the axiomatic common denominator -- the epitome of conformist thought. This wholly illustrates how they co-opt the idea of "common sense" (which has a euphemistic ring to it) to support what is really their unimaginative, uninformed belief.
 
Patrick, so you are calling the claims of Chemtrail, FEMA camp, and HAARP CTers "common sense"? I think you have broadened the definition a bit much.

Not to mention aliens, ancient astronauts, reptilians, big foot, homeopathy and the ever present evil Jewish cabal.

All common sense?
 
I've moved some posts discussing moon landing hoax stuff to AAH because there is a separate moderated thread on that subject. Please feel free to repost those posts to the Moderated Thread queue if you like.
Posted By: LashL
 
It's not ALL common sense uke2se........

Not to mention aliens, ancient astronauts, reptilians, big foot, homeopathy and the ever present evil Jewish cabal.

All common sense?

It's not ALL common sense uke2se........, you simply have to use common sense to see when common sense applies.

In the case of a select priesthood of very phony modern astronauts, yes indeed, the Patrick1000 common sense rule applies, in the case of ancient astronauts, perhaps not......

It doesn't take an economics degree to understand the principles of "American Funny Money" and the truth in the words of those "occupying Oakland". Common sense applies here, today, in the streets of Oakland.........

Why is Nancy Pelosi's "legal insider trading" such big news? Those of us with common sense understand this is a common road to wealth traveled by many members of the US Congress and US Senate. When the Pelosi story broke, my mom said, "Pat, did you know blah blah blah?", and I responded, "mom, these congress people and senators do this insider trading stuff on a daily basis, have been for a long time". And of course they did and do. It is more than obvious.

It is more than twice as difficult to become a member of the National US Swim Team than it is to become a member of the US Senate for a reason. The swimmers don't get to cheat, and once they realize this elite status, they have to work their tails off to maintain their residency atop Mount Olympus.

So it's not ALL common sense uke2se. Seeing Jason Lezak and NOT that dim witted, half neuron brained, Nancy Pelosi as a real achiever, a great American, THAT! is common sense. On the other hand, you are right my friend about homeopathy. Never in a million years will a homeopathic approach to any neurologic affliction grow the nitwit Nancy Pelosi so much as half a dozen new dendrites, let alone a fully evolved human brain.
 
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One shark-jumping moment we haven't mentioned is the sudden admission after a lengthy losing debate that it was all just a "social experiment" of some kind, and that we all fail somehow. We file that under the variety of Awkward Exit Strategies.
Good point. We do see that fairly often here.

And Patrick1000 lies more than any given conspiracy theorist.
I like the recent "mom as foil / evidence" trend of the threads though. He's told so many untruths in these threads that my first reaction to seeing the "happy birthday" icon by his name today was "I wonder if he lied about that too."
 
It's not ALL common sense uke2se........, you simply have to use common sense to see when common sense applies.

In the case of a select priesthood of very phony modern astronauts, yes indeed, the Patrick1000 common sense rule applies, in the case of ancient astronauts, perhaps not......

It doesn't take an economics degree to understand the principles of "American Funny Money" and the truth in the words of those "occupying Oakland". Common sense applies here, today, in the streets of Oakland.........

Why is Nancy Pelosi's "legal insider trading" such big news? Those of us with common sense understand this is a common road to wealth traveled by many members of the US Congress and US Senate. When the Pelosi story broke, my mom said, "Pat, did you know blah blah blah?", and I responded, "mom, these congress people and senators do this insider trading stuff on a daily basis, have been for a long time". And of course they did and do. It is more than obvious.

It is more than twice as difficult to become a member of the National US Swim Team than it is to become a member of the US Senate for a reason. The swimmers don't get to cheat, and once they realize this elite status, they have to work their tails off to maintain their residency atop Mount Olympus.

So it's not ALL common sense uke2se. Seeing Jason Lezak and NOT that dim witted, half neuron brained, Nancy Pelosi as a real achiever, a great American, THAT! is common sense. On the other hand, you are right my friend about homeopathy. Never in a million years will a homeopathic approach to any neurologic affliction grow the nitwit Nancy Pelosi so much as half a dozen new dendrites, let alone a fully evolved human brain.

Ah, so it's basically just a case of special pleading then. Gotcha.
 
Just because you have An Answer (Even a Logically Consistent One):

Does not mean that you have The Answer (That is, the One and Only Answer--or Solution).

Negatives cannot be Deductively Proven.

So, on one hand, even though the Conspiracy Theorist may have a logically airtight Answer--that doesn't mean that its true.

On the other Hand, you will never be able to Deductively Disprove the Conspiracy Buff's theory.

So The Conspiracy Theorist should realize that coming up with an irrefutable argument is no great accomplishment, and does little to prove his point of view.

Having said this, there is no one in Politics, either here or abroad, who I recognize as particularly truthful. I believe that the best of them stand more than willing to Conspire against the People of America, or The World, any and every time that it is Possible, Practical and Profitable for them to do so.

The State is a Compulsive Liar, Prevaricating even occasionally, when the truth would serve it's agendas better.

Also, anytime an argument relies on Statistics, remember a great number of low-level button counters and sorters are either dishonest or biased, incompetent and/or uninterested in the validity of the Numbers they generate.....

Even if the Statisticians thought to ask the right questions, and did a good job Writing their surveys.

So the best one can do, is judge Conspiracy Theories on their Probability.

Most are inherently Improbable--but still, there are some.....

.....RVM45 :cool::eek::cool:
 
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I might have a more precise filter than others, but I consider any conspiracy theory that resorts to claiming that the angles of shadows in pictures are wrong to have put their skis away and sitting on the beach with the guy wearing a hat like the Captain of Captain and Tennille, after having jumped the shark long ago.
 
It's not ALL common sense uke2se........, you simply have to use common sense to see when common sense applies.

Translation: I'll decide whether or not I know enough about any one subject.

What if an expert in the field tells you that common sense isn't enough, and is able to show you specifically how your common sense would tell you one thing related to that field, but actual expertise and knowledge in the field tells you another thing?

Would you still argue that common sense is king, even though it's shown to mislead you? Or would you have to conceded that the expert really is an expert, and probably knows more than you about what it takes to be competent in the field?

In the case of a select priesthood of very phony modern astronauts, yes indeed, the Patrick1000 common sense rule applies...

...and spectacularly fails.

I agree: this is just special pleading. It's fascinating that you'll make so many obvious and glaring errors in that field, yet argue that your "common sense" there is not only sufficient but superior. After avoiding for weeks the question why all the experts in those fields disagree with you, the best you could come up with was that they must all somehow be deluded or incompetent. Why? Because they contradicted your claims!

Do you really think you're fooling anyone?

Those of us with common sense understand this is a common road to wealth traveled by many members of the US Congress and US Senate.

Interesting that you cite only government offenders. My common sense understanding is that insider trading is practiced among all wealthy people, not just those who get elected to office. That is to say, the enabling factor appears to be disposable wealth, not public office. Is there any particular reason you singled out public office holders for this?

I ask because you display a clear anti-government bias in nearly everything you attempt to argue. So I want to know if that's at play in this example too. The reader will be pleased to know whether you argue theories because you actually believe in them, or simply because they appeal to your bias.

Given that, I agree that it doesn't take a degree in finance to understand why insider trading is unfair. And common sense can inform you generally about publicly owned companies and the concepts of shareholding. Common sense tells you the company is doing well when its stock price rises, and poorly when it falls. Common sense tells you to buy low and sell high.

However, common sense may not be enough to tell you whether a certain questionable deal really qualifies as insider trading. While we agree that insider trading is unfair and therefore disallowed, we also agree that the stock market is most successfully played when we make use of all information legally and ethically available to us. That creates the incentive to operate as close to the line as legally allowed. Would you rely on your common sense in that case? Or would you want the advice of experienced stock traders, securities lawyers, and regulators?

See, while common sense tells you some useful things, sooner or later you get deeply enough into the details that common sense doesn't provide. Especially with case law and regulations, just using your best judgment doesn't keep you out of trouble. There are specific cases and rulings you need to know about, and if you haven't studied them then you simply won't know about them.

The judgment endemic to common sense can often allow us to infer what the facts in some case might likely be, but they do not provide those facts. The facts are what they are, regardless of our ability to infer them. There is no amount of deduction that establishes a fact as certainly as does observation. Experts are those whose knowledge of the pertinent facts is not based on deduction or inference, but on observation.

You may scrupulously avoid what you believe is insider trading, but before acting on that hot tip you'll probably want to know whether that particular case is legal or not, by consulting an expert. Because in that case an appeal to common sense will not be an acceptable defense should your actions prove illegal.

In the case of engineering, you may infer based on your general knowledge and on your common sensical judgment how some machine "must" operate. But whether it actually does operate like that is a matter of fact one way or another, regardless of what you deduced or conjectured. It actually happens rather often that someone with a good basic knowledge of physics and science will deduce how a machine must work based on idealized elementary principles, only to discover that it actually works in a much different -- and usually much simpler -- way than in he imagined. Engineers learn the tricks of the trade. Once exposed and explained, they are understood. But they simply don't arise out of common sense.

The sad thing about common sense is that it too often substitutes deduction and inference for observation. The conspiracy theorist isn't able to observe the relevant systems in operation because of his non-stature in the applicable field. So all he can do is imagine how it "must" work. And because he needs that for his theory, the inference takes on the role of fact because it has to in order for the conspiracy theory to maintain the illusion of a sure foundation.

It is more than twice as difficult to become a member of the National US Swim Team...

I disagree. Swimming is nothing more than common sense. Those team swimmers are just playing up their own egos. They're actually not any better than anyone else.

Sound offensive?

Yeah it is. See how a claim to expertise is not per se valid? It's not good enough to claim to be competent. Sometimes, just like in swim team tryouts, you have to demonstrate your competence before you will be accepted as a master.

On the other hand, you are right my friend about homeopathy. Never in a million years will a homeopathic approach to any neurologic affliction grow [...] a fully evolved human brain.

Here's the funny thing about homeopathy. They all say that what they do is just common sensical and intuitive. They explicitly reject the claims of mainstream medicine to have superior effectiveness because of a strong scientific basis. They say that science is simply what those inept practitioners have to use in order to cover up for their lack of intuitive healing ability and their defiance of common sense in order to peddle their expensive placebos.

Relax, I know homeopathy is nonsense. My point is that you've conceded that not every appeal to common sense is per se valid. And that includes appeals to common sense in order to determine whether common sense is warranted. If no appeal to common sense can be trusted, then you have to show that your common sense is sufficient in all cases to determine that common sense is sufficient.

Good luck with that.
 
It is more than twice as difficult to become a member of the National US Swim Team than it is to become a member of the US Senate for a reason. The swimmers don't get to cheat, and once they realize this elite status, they have to work their tails off to maintain their residency atop Mount Olympus.
Mighty precise claim. Care to back it up?
 
It is more than twice as difficult to become a member of the National US Swim Team than it is to become a member of the US Senate for a reason. The swimmers don't get to cheat, and once they realize this elite status, they have to work their tails off to maintain their residency atop Mount Olympus.

So you don't think it's even possible swimmers could cheat? I suspect Balco would have taken that as a challenge...
 
It's not ALL common sense uke2se........, you simply have to use common sense to see when common sense applies.

In the case of a select priesthood of very phony modern astronauts, yes indeed, the Patrick1000 common sense rule applies, in the case of ancient astronauts, perhaps not...

Interesting. In the moderated thread, your critics are complaining that you simply repost your original claims over and over and ignore what they're saying. That's the one where you say common sense alone is needed. Your critics, who are known to me to be factually well versed in the topic, argue that you're simply repeated debunked arguments and making the same common errors that others have.

In the evolutionary biology thread, your critics are complaining that you simply repost your original claims and ignore what they're saying. That's the one where you say specialized knowledge is required, and that you have it. Your critics, who appear to be well versed in the topic, argue that you're simply applying long-debunked standard arguments that others have employed before.

From your perspective these two cases differ markedly in their basis of knowledge. But you take the same approach with both. Why?

From your critics' perspective, you are uninformed and unqualified in each of those topics. But you claim you are more informed in one than in the other. Why?

These are serious questions. I hope you'll answer. I'm sure you're aware of the work of Dunning and Kruger, who famously studied people's ability to assess expertise in themselves and others. Do you feel that their work is valid? If not, why not? If so, do you feel that it undermines your claim that you and your common sense are alone sufficient to determine whether or not you are qualified to challenge commonly-held principles against the opinions of experts?
 
At the risk of derailing this thread, I'd like to know, Patrick, what your "common sense" tells you about vaccines?
 
Fat chance, the LRO pictures didn't so much as make the CT's flinch. They will either claim the new missions are fake or that they put the Apollo hardware there recently for the new missions to see.


yes this would be the endless game of cat and mouse the problems perceived as like some creationist would do if they are encountered on new evidence just make things up on the spot.
 
Sure swimmers cheat.......

So you don't think it's even possible swimmers could cheat? I suspect Balco would have taken that as a challenge...

Sure swimmers cheat.......

Most of the best on the US team would not risk it however.

We really are that good at something!

Swimming, not cheating that is ......
 
Vaccines are good......

At the risk of derailing this thread, I'd like to know, Patrick, what your "common sense" tells you about vaccines?

Vaccines are "good" generally speaking......

"Common sense wise", I do not have much of an opinion one way or the other. Professionally, there is no question vaccines are very important. Just the polio and small pox examples are enough to sell one on vaccines.

That said, I am 54, I work in a hospital with a ton of sick people including patients with influenza, and I have only been vaccinated against seasonal influenza once or twice I believe in my entire life.

So there is effective, and on the other hand there is "so so, hmmmmm not so sure about this one under these circumstances", and why bother and expose oneself to the risks/side effect fallout in such marginally beneficial situations.
 

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