UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

[Sideroxylon]

Paul, we should keep pressing him on this. This nonsense about the null hypothesis has gone on for too long and he shows no signs of dropping it. Ufology, are you going to attempt to answer this question? I am pretty sure you have no answer.

 

[carlitos]

I learned about the null hypothesis in 7th grade science. It had nothing to do with statistics, which I didn't really understand until after grad school.

 

[John Albert]

OH YEAH, you made my day, I didn't even notice it!

Where's my prize?

★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★

You win a free ride in a UFO (alien craft)!

Void where prohibited by Intergalactic Law. Contest is only open to legal residents of Earth. All intergalactic, planetary, federal, state, and local laws
apply. The JREF is not responsible for lost time or damaged credibility. Only redeemable pending falsification of the J. Randall Murphy null hypothesis.

★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★
​

 

[tsig]

GeeMack,

You speak of bias and then splash yours all over the place. First you incorrectly call ufology a pseudoscience when you have no rationale for doing so other than to slap some derogatory name on it.

Then you go on to misrepresent the usage and definition of the word UFO the same as you always do. So here's yet another quote from USAF archives as to what the word "unidentified" in the context of official UFO investigations means:

"A sighting is considered unidentified when a report apparently contains all pertinent data necessary to suggest a valid hypothesis concerning the cause or explanation of the report but the description of the object or its motion cannot be correlated with any known object or phenomena."
​

So, nobody here including me has claimed that the "U" in UFO means identified as an alien craft. I have however claimed that the vast majority of verbal usage and portrayals of the word UFO ( in its entirety ) are meant to convey the idea of an alien craft, a fact that is blatantly self evident. Skeptics who fail to see this reality are merely projecting their anti-ufology propoganda.

So an Unidentified Flying Object that can't be explained by mundane means is an alien craft.

 

[Paul2]

★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★

You win a free ride in a UFO (alien craft)!

Void where prohibited by Intergalactic Law. Contest is only open to legal residents of Earth. All intergalactic, planetary, federal, state, and local laws
apply. The JREF is not responsible for lost time or damaged credibility. Only redeemable pending falsification of the J. Randall Murphy null hypothesis.
​

But if it's unidentified, how am I gonna know which craft to get on? Is there a ticket or a schedule? Where's the station or terminal?

I'd also like to opt out of any probing, gratis or not.​

 

[AdMan]

★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★

You win a free ride in a UFO (alien craft)!

Void where prohibited by Intergalactic Law. Contest is only open to legal residents of Earth. All intergalactic, planetary, federal, state, and local laws
apply. The JREF is not responsible for lost time or damaged credibility. Only redeemable pending falsification of the J. Randall Murphy null hypothesis.

★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★☆★
​

 

[Correa Neto]

But if it's unidentified, how am I gonna know which craft to get on? Is there a ticket or a schedule? Where's the station or terminal?

I'd also like to opt out of any probing, gratis or not.

Just follow the white rabbit.

 

[ufology]

It's rather sad that you consider reality to be only a temporary diversion from fantasy. A fit and healthy mind would work the other way round.

Mr. Albert,

I'm so glad you've got reality all figured out. It's something humanity has been trying to explain since the days of Plato, and you seem to be the only one who is sure he has it nailed down. Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the world too? Please tell us all exactly what reality is.

 

[ehcks]

Mr. Albert,

I'm so glad you've got reality all figured out. It's something humanity has been trying to explain since the days of Plato, and you seem to be the only one who is sure he has it nailed down. Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the world too? Please tell us all exactly what reality is.

We could spend the next infinity years explaining reality as a whole, or we could get to the point and say that in reality, humans have not yet identified any flying object as an alien spacecraft.

UFOs exist. Alien spacecraft probably do exist. We have some spacecraft, and we're almost certainly aliens to someone else. But have we seen someone else's? No.

 

[Krikkiter]

Mr. Albert,

I'm so glad you've got reality all figured out. It's something humanity has been trying to explain since the days of Plato, and you seem to be the only one who is sure he has it nailed down. Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the world too? Please tell us all exactly what reality is.

Finally some humility and honesty.

 

[ufology]

Paul, we should keep pressing him on this. This nonsense about the null hypothesis has gone on for too long and he shows no signs of dropping it. Ufology, are you going to attempt to answer this question? I am pretty sure you have no answer.

Sideroxylon,

Interesting phrasing above ... the part that says, "we should keep pressing him". I almost forgot that I was amid a cabal of ufology bashers. But by all means let's continue. How about we start with this point regarding the null hypothesis:

"The term was originally coined by Englishgeneticist and statistician Ronald Fisher in 1935."
​

And move on to the Principple of use ...

"Hypothesis testing works by collecting data and measuring how likely the particular set of data is, assuming the null hypothesis is true."
​

Now what part about the above is in error? Or are you going to insist that we revert back to Carlitos' grade seven explanation? Unless the null hypothesis is used as it was designed to be used it's nothing more than pseudoskeptical way of saying, "Until you prove it I won't believe it" ... which actually I would be fine with.

And BTW: You can refer to me not merely as "him" but as "Mr. Ufology"

 

[Krikkiter]

Sideroxylon,

Interesting phrasing above ... the part that says, "we should keep pressing him". I almost forgot that I was amid a cabal of ufology bashers. But by all means let's continue. How about we start with this point regarding the null hypothesis:

"The term was originally coined by English geneticist and statistician Ronald Fisher in 1935."
​

And move on to the Principple of use ...

"Hypothesis testing works by collecting data and measuring how likely the particular set of data is, assuming the null hypothesis is true."
​

Now what part about the above is in error? Or are you going to insist that we revert back to Carlitos' grade seven explanation?

Unless the null hypothesis is used as it was designed to be used it's nothing more than pseudoskeptical way of saying, "Until you prove it I won't believe it".

Given that you've just (very refreshingly) admitted that you find it difficult to distinguish fantasy from reality, the above isn't really surprising.

 

[RoboTimbo]

Sideroxylon,

Interesting phrasing above ... the part that says, "we should keep pressing him". I almost forgot that I was amid a cabal of ufology bashers. But by all means let's continue. How about we start with this point regarding the null hypothesis:

"The term was originally coined by Englishgeneticist and statistician Ronald Fisher in 1935."
​

And move on to the Principple of use ...

"Hypothesis testing works by collecting data and measuring how likely the particular set of data is, assuming the null hypothesis is true."
​

Now what part about the above is in error? Or are you going to insist that we revert back to Carlitos' grade seven explanation? Unless the null hypothesis is used as it was designed to be used it's nothing more than pseudoskeptical way of saying, "Until you prove it I won't believe it" ... which actually I would be fine with.

And BTW: You can refer to me not merely as "him" but as "Mr. Ufology"

Akhenaten gave you the statistics.

Numbers of alleged sightings of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) = numerous
Numbers of UFOs which have turned out to be Alien Space Ships = zero

Now what part about the above is in error?

When do you think there will be just one statistic to falsify the J Randall Murphy null hypothesis?

 

[GeeMack]

I'm so glad you've got reality all figured out. It's something humanity has been trying to explain since the days of Plato, and you seem to be the only one who is sure he has it nailed down. Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the world too? Please tell us all exactly what reality is.

As we've discussed before, if you believe "truth itself doesn't correspond to objective reality", your opinion on either isn't likely to be accepted as valid.

Truth and reality are two seaparate issues. Therefore truth itself doesn't correspond to objective reality or any other reality.

By the way, how's it going with that null hypothesis, the one that goes...

"All UFOs are of mundane origin."​

Unless you're willing to rescind your claim that some UFOs are alien craft, since you created that null hypothesis when you made the claim, it'll keep hanging over you.

 

[Robrob]

I almost forgot that I was amid a cabal of ufology bashers.

No, you forgot you were amid a cabal of rational people who don't accept fantastical claims without evidence.

 

[Paul2]

Sideroxylon,

Interesting phrasing above ... the part that says, "we should keep pressing him". I almost forgot that I was amid a cabal of ufology bashers. But by all means let's continue. How about we start with this point regarding the null hypothesis:

"The term was originally coined by Englishgeneticist and statistician Ronald Fisher in 1935."
​

And move on to the Principple of use ...

"Hypothesis testing works by collecting data and measuring how likely the particular set of data is, assuming the null hypothesis is true."
​

Now what part about the above is in error? Or are you going to insist that we revert back to Carlitos' grade seven explanation? Unless the null hypothesis is used as it was designed to be used it's nothing more than pseudoskeptical way of saying, "Until you prove it I won't believe it" ... which actually I would be fine with.

And BTW: You can refer to me not merely as "him" but as "Mr. Ufology"

Why are you asking what the error is? We've already told you that.

The error is that the definition is unnecessarily narrow.

 

[ufology]

Why are you asking what the error is? We've already told you that.

The error is that the definition is unnecessarily narrow.

Paul,

Perhaps you are right, just like the definition of addition is the process of calculating the sum of two numbers. Maybe you would like to loosen up that one as well. It would certainly help at the bank, or when I'm paying my credit card bills.

Look, I didn't create the article, but I see no reason to doubt it is accurate, so don't argue with me about it, go take it up with Wikipedia ... explain to them how you need it to be more vague to suit your bias in this debate. For all you know, the article isn't even locked and you can just go in and change it to suit yourself. I'm sure Carlitos would be glad to help you with that Grade 7 definition.

 

[ufology]

No, you forgot you were amid a cabal of rational people who don't accept fantastical claims without evidence.

Robrob,

So you're claiming not to be associated with those here who participate in mockery, ridicule, misrepresentation, character attacks and other pseudoskeptical deviousness? OK ... in that case I'm glad to meet you.

Have you run across any skeptical information on recent UFO reports? I have also been looking for a skeptical writeup on Clark McClelland ( the Stargate Chronicles guy ). If you run across anything relevant would you kindly pass it along.

Thanks

 

[RoboTimbo]

Robrob,

So you're claiming not to be associated with those here who participate in mockery, ridicule, misrepresentation, character attacks and other pseudoskeptical deviousness? OK ... in that case I'm glad to meet you.

Have you run across any skeptical information on recent UFO reports? I have also been looking for a skeptical writeup on Clark McClelland ( the Stargate Chronicles guy ). If you run across anything relevant would you kindly pass it along.

Thanks

I'm not Robrob and the original alleged sighting isn't recent but the changes to it have been.

It's the J Randall Murphy UFO ( firefly ) Hoax. We've seen on this forum how the details have changed greatly over time as the contradictions were shown to the hoaxer. Do you have any more information on that one? The great thing is that there are so many witnesses to the hoaxer's "corrections" over time. They're still on this forum in black and white for posterity to see the evolution of an outright hoax.

 

[John Albert]

I'm so glad you've got reality all figured out. It's something humanity has been trying to explain since the days of Plato, and you seem to be the only one who is sure he has it nailed down. Perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the world too? Please tell us all exactly what reality is.

Philip K. Dick did a cracking fine job of defining it, especially for a crankhead, schizophrenic, science fiction author from the South side of Chicago:

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."​