General Great British Politics Thread!

Got any sources for that? I'm not calling you a liar, I just need some independent verification, preferably one that discloses its funders (thanks Monbiot for bringing that to our attention). It's difficult to believe that you've managed to perform the calculations neccessary to predict economic growth in a country with tens of thousands of businesses and probably just as many laws, subject to various external sometimes unpredictable stimuli, in your own head.

Tullett Prebon brought out this report. I'm not sure of any bias they might have, but the report seems to be thorough and suggests that the UK is in trouble regardless of whether we follow the Tory route or the Labour route.

Here is the report:

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

And here is an excerpt from its conclusion:

Both the government and its
opponents seem to believe that the
delivery of recovery requires nothing
more than the selection of the right
blend of macroeconomic policies.
This report seeks to demonstrate
that no such magic formula exists.
The Coalition’s deficit reduction plan,
though laudable in its intent, is set
to fail because it is predicated upon
levels of growth which cannot be
delivered by the economy as currently
configured. The opposition’s calls for
a ‘plan b’ based on a more gradual
approach to deficit reduction amount
to nothing more than a recipe for
more denial and an accelerated lurch
into crisis.
 
Tullett Prebon brought out this report. I'm not sure of any bias they might have, but the report seems to be thorough and suggests that the UK is in trouble regardless of whether we follow the Tory route or the Labour route.

Here is the report:

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/Tim_Morgan_Report_007.pdf

And here is an excerpt from its conclusion:

It doesn't prove a bias, but Tullett Prebon are a FTSE 250 company who may have a vested interest in tax rates and business regulation in the UK. I'd rather hear from an independent thinktank that discloses its funding (not that i'm asking you to go out and do the research for me - i'm directing that at Geni).
 
Got any sources for that? I'm not calling you a liar, I just need some independent verification, preferably one that discloses its funders (thanks Monbiot for bringing that to our attention). It's difficult to believe that you've managed to perform the calculations neccessary to predict economic growth in a country with tens of thousands of businesses and probably just as many laws, subject to various external sometimes unpredictable stimuli, in your own head.

There is a pretty solid political consensus that the UK has a structural deficit rather than a cyclic deficit.

Still lets do the maths.

The govement budget for 2010/2011 was 697 billion. Their tax take on rather optomistic growth projections was 548. Assming all forms of GDP are taxed about the same rate then ignoring interest we would have to freeze spending and sustain a 3% year on year growth rate untill 2020 in order to get rid of the deficit. During that time we would have had to have borrowed £740 billion which wouldn't be easy.


(figures from page 5 of
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/junebudget_easyread.htm )
 
There is a pretty solid political consensus that the UK has a structural deficit rather than a cyclic deficit.

Still lets do the maths.

The govement budget for 2010/2011 was 697 billion. Their tax take on rather optomistic growth projections was 548. Assming all forms of GDP are taxed about the same rate then ignoring interest we would have to freeze spending and sustain a 3% year on year growth rate untill 2020 in order to get rid of the deficit. During that time we would have had to have borrowed £740 billion which wouldn't be easy.


(figures from page 5 of
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/junebudget_easyread.htm )

Have you really just done 3% growth = 3% tax take increase (and forgotten to compound it)? I don't think economics is quite that simple.
 
Good to see the Tories focused on the important stuff -

tax cuts and bin collections.....

having council tax frozen is an effective tax cut which will cost £850 million

and apparently Georgie Boy has found a spare £250 million lying behind the sofa to spend on more bin collections.

If I remember rightly, the need to raise tuition fees to ~£9000 was a result of slashing university education spending by about £800 million. Still that was essential because there was no money. Oh hang on....
 
Good to see the Tories focused on the important stuff -

tax cuts and bin collections.....

I like how they are screaming that "localism" is the way forward but on the other hand they want to micro-manage from the centre bin collections...

ETA: And I see that Cameron is still playing the "human rights" boogey man to please the Daily Mail.
 
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I like how they are screaming about "localism" is the way forward but one the other hand they want to micro-manage from the centre bin collections...

There's the same localism/central control contradiction throughout their policies - council taxes are the best way of devolving responsibility to local regions but they've been curtailed, schools are being taken out of local educational authority control and are now just answerable to his Goveness, etc etc.

although really, I don't think it has to make sense beyond, "The Daily Mail wants it"....

Paul Dacre must really like his weekly bin collection.
 
I like how they are screaming that "localism" is the way forward but on the other hand they want to micro-manage from the centre bin collections...

ETA: And I see that Cameron is still playing the "human rights" boogey man to please the Daily Mail.

re the Yuuman Rights gubbins, I like this blog dissection of cameron's vacuity:

There is a reason that I tend to focus on the Daily Mail – when I know they are not alone in wallowing in terrible journalism – and the reason is that the Daily Mail seems to wield significant political influence. This morning David Cameron said the following on the Andrew Marr show:

Prime Minister David Cameron said he agreed with Mrs May that the [Human Rights] act should be scrapped and replaced with a British Bill of Rights.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, he said that because of the coalition it would take longer to review this than he would like.

He also said he wanted to change the “chilling culture” created by the act.

He cited an example of a prison van being driven nearly 100 miles to be used to transport a prisoner 200 yards “when he was perfectly happy to walk”.

“The Human Rights Act doesn’t say that’s what you have to do. It’s the sort of chilling effect of people thinking ‘I will be found guilty under it’.

This is a story that I have already covered last week, and it has since had an interesting update that confirms my original theory that this was definitely not a human rights issue. It is very interesting indeed that David Cameron is using this example as evidence that Britain needs to opt out of the Human Rights Act, because had he read the article more closely he might have noticed that something else was in fact to blame:

Glyn Travis, of the Prison Officers’ Association, said: ‘This is a prime example of how the privatised system is a constant drain on public resources.

‘In the past police would have been able to walk him to the station themselves but now because of the contracts with private companies they are not able to do so’.

Of course, privatisation is a favourite past time of the Conservatives ever since Margeret Thatcher introduced economic shock doctrine into the UK back in the 1980s. Perhaps this is what we have to look forward to when the NHS is slowly auctioned off to private companies in aid of ‘competition’ and the supposed efficiency magically generated by the ‘free’ market – you know, the system that has led to the generally terrible and still state-subsidised ‘private’ railway system we all ‘enjoy’ in the UK.

Still, rather than actually investigate just why the prisoner was driven such a short distance instead of walking – the fact that a private contract exists to deliver the service of prisoner transport, hence why the police felt they could not walk him or drive him; it is no longer their job – it was obvious the Daily Mail would blame ‘human rights’ as the real reason. Just as inevitable would be that at some point this story would enter the public discourse thanks to a politician – in this case the Prime Minister – who then uses this populist, simplistic ******** to try and force through a policy change.
http://www.butireaditinthepaper.co.uk/
 
Those are dire numbers for Labour, given that we're both in the middle of a severe economic downturn, massive unemployment, public sector unrest, anaemic growth, and big cuts.....after all of that the Tories are still beating Labour....

Yeah, well, wait until the cuts start to bite a bit. At the moment people are thinking "oo well this isn't really too bad", but so far most of them haven't been implemented at all.

having council tax frozen is an effective tax cut which will cost £850 million

And save households up to £72 in every year! Champagne all round!

and apparently Georgie Boy has found a spare £250 million lying behind the sofa to spend on more bin collections.

I must admit this puzzled me since I was under the impression that we were supposed to be having our bins emptied by teams of dedicated volunteers these days.
 
More tory proposals :

The Conservatives have revealed plans to require unemployed people to look for a job for several hours a day and to be willing to accept a job anywhere within a 90-mile radius of their home, or lose their benefit.

A jobseeker who fails to take up a reasonable job offer three times will be debarred from receiving benefit for three years.

A new DWP IT system will also make it easier for Jobcentre Plus staff to monitor the amount of jobseeking an unemployed person is undertaking, including how many job applications they have filled out. Trials will also be undertaken to require the jobless to sign on every week, rather than fortnightly.

90 miles? Good lordy - a 4 hour commute for what would probably be a low wage job? You'd spend your daily wage just getting there and back. They also seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that we are living in 1950 - where you spend hours handwriting cvs. And really, do they think that every day there are going to be dozens of new and appropriate jobs to apply for? Most low paid jobs are through agencies anyway....

I doubt any Tory front bencher has come within £100,000 of being in need of jobseekers so perhaps no great surprise....
 
And the first workhouse will be opening when? Oh that's right we can't have workhouses as that would mean we'd have to house and feed the poor.
 
90 miles? Good lordy - a 4 hour commute for what would probably be a low wage job? You'd spend your daily wage just getting there and back.

Presumably the idea is that you give up on this silly idea you have of living in Birmingham and simply move your entire family to Sheffield in order to take up your minimum-wage opportunity.

'Cause they've got to ride forever on that M1 in the sky
On cycles snorting fire
As they ride on hear their cry
Yippie yi Ohhhhh
Yippie yi Yaaaaay
Ghost Tebbits Iiiiiin the Skyyyyyy
 
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Presumably the idea is that you give up on this silly idea you have of living in Birmingham and simply move your entire family to Sheffield in order to take up your minimum-wage opportunity.

Well I for one don't think it is wrong that people looking for a job should be expected to take any job that is near any of their homes!
 
Presumably the idea is that you give up on this silly idea you have of living in Birmingham and simply move your entire family to Sheffield in order to take up your minimum-wage opportunity.

Surely there comes a point though where if you can't find a job in Birmingham you have to broaden your search and look at other areas? Just like if you can;t find a job as a plumber you might need to eventually look at other lines of work.

More tory proposals :

90 miles? Good lordy - a 4 hour commute for what would probably be a low wage job? You'd spend your daily wage just getting there and back. They also seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that we are living in 1950 - where you spend hours handwriting cvs. And really, do they think that every day there are going to be dozens of new and appropriate jobs to apply for? Most low paid jobs are through agencies anyway....

I doubt any Tory front bencher has come within £100,000 of being in need of jobseekers so perhaps no great surprise....

90 miles seems extreme but I agree with the sentiment. The expectations of people on Jobseekers are laughably minimal.
 
I fear you have misunderstood...I am talking about the expectations which the Job Centre place on the jobseeker i.e. what you have to do to meet our expectations, rather than the expectations which individual jobseekers have for themselves.

The requirements placed on me were to read the newspaper once a week and to check 2 job websites during the fortnight for example.
 
It's not 90 miles, I believe, it's 90 minutes, although how that's to be afforded I've no idea.

A 60 minute journey from Basingstoke to Waterloo will require the purchase of a season ticket of £89 per week (minimum). Assuming an hourly rate of £10ph that's nearly a third of net salary gone on travel alone. If that wage appears too low for London (although looking in the windows of Adecco and other recruitment agencies for temp workers it won't be much more for unskilled clerical staff) then that's pretty much equivalent for a season ticket between, say, Huddersfield and Liverpool.

Of course, there's always the car, although you'd have to tax and insure it as well as fill it with petrol...
 

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