Merged Libyan civil war ending - politics post-Gaddafi

Dayan81 said:
http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-enter-heart-tripoli-crowds-celebrate-000932445.html

It appears that the rebels are now in the heart of Tripoli and the public is celebrating. Is there any word on the fate of Qhadafi?

I shall turn on Al-Jazeera and post important updates as they come in.

Update- Rebel forces are taking over districts within Tripoli.
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Australian news (ABC) is reporting 2 of his sons are in rebel hands (One captured, one surrendered). Also reports that both sides are using propergander atm to show there strengths so hard to tell what's truth or not.
 
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One of Qhadafi's sons was on the air with Al-Jazeera, discussing how well the rebels that had placed him under house-arrest were treating him. All of the sudden there was the sound of massive sound of gunfire on the phone, the man started to pray, and then the gunfire continued and the phone went dead. I assume he has shared the fate with his telephone.
 
I am afraid they will just go strait to the next civil war as the assorted fractions fall out over who gets what positions/money.
 
http://www.cnn.com/

Obama has called on Qhadafi to quit. I don't think he now has much of a choice.

He can step down or he can die fighting, but he is no longer the leader of Libya.
 
Dayan81 said:
One of Qhadafi's sons was on the air with Al-Jazeera, discussing how well the rebels that had placed him under house-arrest were treating him. All of the sudden there was the sound of massive sound of gunfire on the phone, the man started to pray, and then the gunfire continued and the phone went dead. I assume he has shared the fate with his telephone.
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MSNBC just reported that he called Al-Jazeera back to let them know he's alive and under house arrest.

Steve S
 
Toke said:
I am afraid they will just go strait to the next civil war as the assorted fractions fall out over who gets what positions/money.
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Why the pessimism, why can't you be happy for them? Are you sorry to see 40 years of dictatorship go?

The desert drag queen won't me missed.
 
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Pardalis said:
Why the pessimism, why can't you be happy for them? Are you sorry to see 40 years of dictatorship go?

The desert drag queen won't me missed.
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It is great to get rid of him, I have just not heard what will replace him.
In a perfect world the assorted tribes would set up a representative government without further bloodshed, and keep the country running.

In this world they are more likely to start fighting among themselves.
 
Toke said:
It is great to get rid of him, I have just not heard what will replace him.
In a perfect world the assorted tribes would set up a representative government without further bloodshed, and keep the country running.

In this world they are more likely to start fighting among themselves.
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How do you feel about NATO's role?
 
trustbutverify said:
How do you feel about NATO's role?
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I suspect less than humanitarian motives.
Of all the arab dictators with rebellions on their hands nato is really eager to intervene in a country where the dictator is un-coorporative and have oil.
It also look rather poorly planed.

Not that I object to getting rid of gadaffi, it just sounds hollow with the humanitarian rhetoric while ignoring all the others crackpots around the world.
 
Toke said:
I suspect less than humanitarian motives.
Of all the arab dictators with rebellions on their hands nato is really eager to intervene in a country where the dictator is un-coorporative and have oil.
It also look rather poorly planed.

Not that I object to getting rid of gadaffi, it just sounds hollow with the humanitarian rhetoric while ignoring all the others crackpots around the world.
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He seemed pretty damned cooperative lately.
 
If history is a guide, then after the regime is toppled then there is a jump-ball for power. The criteria as to which group becomes the new power center is largely based on which is best organized and perhaps the extent of military or mob force applied. I have no clue what is coming in Libya, but I wouldn't expect anything good for the locals.

Yes the UN should have a role here - but clearly it's a feckless debate society for dictatorships and not much of a force for order. and human rights.
 
stevea said:
If history is a guide, then after the regime is toppled then there is a jump-ball for power. The criteria as to which group becomes the new power center is largely based on which is best organized and perhaps the extent of military or mob force applied. I have no clue what is coming in Libya, but I wouldn't expect anything good for the locals.

Yes the UN should have a role here - but clearly it's a feckless debate society for dictatorships and not much of a force for order. and human rights.
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I hope you're proved wrong.
 
According to Robert Baer interviewed this morning on BBC Radio 5, the civil war may just be starting. The removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power may remove the main factor currently uniting the other side. When he is deposed, Baer thinks that it may dissolve into a lengthy civil war (in the same way that inter-factional fighting in Iraq has/is currently undermining the security position there) or may result in the country of Libya splitting into a number of smaller entities.

In any case, and to paraphrase Churchill, we may currently be at the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end in Libya.
 
I listening to talking heads on my local TV station and they rolling photos of Green Square in Tripoli (at least I think)

There is a couple of hundred men, and ones in front of the camera are jumping up and down and waving machetes.

Machetes! And the talking heads are smugly saying what a great day for Libya.

Well if its really all over, good and if a good regime establishes itself even better. But sheesh, why can't people actually look at the pictures they are watching?
 
stevea said:
If history is a guide, then after the regime is toppled then there is a jump-ball for power. The criteria as to which group becomes the new power center is largely based on which is best organized and perhaps the extent of military or mob force applied. I have no clue what is coming in Libya, but I wouldn't expect anything good for the locals.

Yes the UN should have a role here - but clearly it's a feckless debate society for dictatorships and not much of a force for order. and human rights.
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I am afraid you are right. :(
 
Since there doesnt seem to have been much fighting, my guess is there must have been a lot of defections by officers and units. Or if not defections then standing down. After all these were the poor sods who were the "justified" targets of NATO bombs.

If so, then the transition may not be so bad. To me it seems incredible the rebels could have just driven into Tripoli without some kind of opening the gate from inside.
 
The Don said:
According to Robert Baer interviewed this morning on BBC Radio 5, the civil war may just be starting. The removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power may remove the main factor currently uniting the other side. When he is deposed, Baer thinks that it may dissolve into a lengthy civil war (in the same way that inter-factional fighting in Iraq has/is currently undermining the security position there) or may result in the country of Libya splitting into a number of smaller entities.

In any case, and to paraphrase Churchill, we may currently be at the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end in Libya.
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I hope he's wrong. Quackdaffi will fall by the end of the day (optimistically) or by the end of the week (pessimistically). The rebels have had 6 months to organize and hopefully have some vague idea of how to handle the country once Quackdaffi is out of the picture, and I hope that includes a transfer to something resembling democracy.

I also realize that he may well be right. The islamists are quite strong in Libya and became important among rebel ranks. The day chosen for assault on Tripoli was chosen for being the 20th of Ramandan, which is apperantly the day Mecca was conquered, which is hardly a secular refference.

I remain a cautious optimist. Expecting the worst to happen is pointless.

McHrozni
 
Wasn't it July 7, about six weeks ago, that Tripoli hosted about a million people still showing their full support for the government? Contrary to claims, they were not all there because of a million family members held hostage.

Plus wasn't there was a comparable number in other cities, some even braving exposure behind then enemy lines, and all of them behind the potential enemy lines that would extend Libya's borders, as the West already pretends. In a nation of six million, after months of the West's clear messages, something approaching one third of Libya still publicly said no, with one green voice.

What's so amazingly different now, aside from the proximity of sheer, brute force?

The will of the people and NATO's bombs and the Western power elite's pronouncements from February on, might finally triumph over col. Gaddafi and the will of the people!
 
little grey rabbit said:
I listening to talking heads on my local TV station and they rolling photos of Green Square in Tripoli (at least I think)

There is a couple of hundred men, and ones in front of the camera are jumping up and down and waving machetes.

Machetes! And the talking heads are smugly saying what a great day for Libya.

Well if its really all over, good and if a good regime establishes itself even better. But sheesh, why can't people actually look at the pictures they are watching?
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Thought you of all people might dig this artful yet relevant musing:
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2011/08/feasting-after-bloodbath.html

On Robert Baer. Well, he's one of the few western experts on Libya that the public still gives credence to, despite being correct about the huge lie of Lockerbie. And again, what he says about Libya rings true to me.

Besides the Islamists and other possible factionalism within the rebel ranks, there are those who never joined the rebels, only got conquered. When the will of the people is suppressed, it often tries to flare back out. This is especially the case in Libya, where we insist on keeping a cartoon view, while they are in the brutal reality over there. So, the cheering masses heralding the end should expect surprises.

Stability can be maintained through a relatively fair and equitable compromise solution I can hardly see the rebels pulling off. Or with massive force, drone patrols, etc. Might take a generation or three for the old nationalism to finally peter off.

But I guess 6 million in a desert strip south of Italy are easier to patrol than 25 million in Mesopotamia or the Afghan Himalayas. That might be the thinking.
 
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