Moderated Global Warming Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
Until you demonstrate something that substantively and meaningfully alters the mainstream climate science understandings, there isn't much to discuss.

Just that the bias in temperature is significantly higher than the change being measured. A first year science student's very first lab is determining the error in measurement and the statistical significance. A 10 degree error trying to measure 0.1 degree change makes it statistically impossible to determine.

It's meaningful, to scientists.
 
You STILL don't understand what happens when the mean value shifts, do you - you get a greater number of extreme events. Funnily enough that's being seen:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/2010-2011-Earths-most-extreme-weather-since-1816.html

Ahh, NotSoSkepticalScience.com, showing they're not so skeptical. From the link: Unprecedented heat scorched the Earth's surface in 2010, tying 2005 for the warmest year since accurate records began in the late 1800s.

Let's think about this for a second. Today, in 2011, we've got a confirmed, peer reviewed scientific study, showing how there's as high as a 10C bias in the measurement, but you still believe that the temperature record going back to the late 1800's is accurate enough to determine a 1 degree difference in temperature?

How exactly do you hand wave all of this away is what I'm wondering? There's absolutely no pause, no concern, no stop to check your data and figure out what if any effect this may have had around the world over the last 120 years or so. Nope, it's just deny, deny, deny.

There's your climate science in a nutshell, study the positive bias and ignore the negative, no matter how great that bias may be. It's just sad how unfaltering the belief in warming is. It's certainly not worth more than a single thread in a skeptical website like the JREF. There isn't a shred of skepticism in this whole forum when it comes to global warming.
 
More bias, and guess what, it's positive.

Hey guess what, more positive bias, this time in the Arctic :rolleyes:

Erroneous Arctic Temperature Trends in the ERA-40 Reanalysis: A Closer Look


Decadal or multidecadal Arctic temperature trends calculated over periods that include 1997 are highly inaccurate, particularly below 600 hPa. It is shown that ERA-40 is poorly suited to studying Arctic temperature trends and their vertical profile, and conclusions based upon them must be viewed with extreme caution

Funny, I'm the only one reporting on these biases in the peer reviewed scientific literature. I guess I'm the only one reading this stuff.
 
Bias, bias everwhere

More bias, this time it's closer to the middle.

Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends

Comparison of observed temperatures with NARR shows that the most poorly sited stations are warmer compared to NARR than are other stations, and a major portion of this bias is associated with the siting classification rather than the geographical distribution of stations. According to the best‐sited stations, the diurnal temperature range in the lower 48 states has no century‐scale trend.

70.8% of the stations have a bias greater than 2C, 6.2% of which are greater than 5C :jaw-dropp

I see Anthony Watts was an author on this paper. I suppose that means character assassination in lieu of scientific discussion?
 
The rate averaged over a century is going to give you a much lower number than the rate averaged since 1978. And that will be a lower number than predictions of the near future.

The prediction is pretty much a hockey stick graph, and so trying to represent that with any sort of a linear approximation is a fool's errand.
 
More bias, this time it's closer to the middle.

Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends

Comparison of observed temperatures with NARR shows that the most poorly sited stations are warmer compared to NARR than are other stations, and a major portion of this bias is associated with the siting classification rather than the geographical distribution of stations. According to the best‐sited stations, the diurnal temperature range in the lower 48 states has no century‐scale trend.

70.8% of the stations have a bias greater than 2C, 6.2% of which are greater than 5C :jaw-dropp

I see Anthony Watts was an author on this paper. I suppose that means character assassination in lieu of scientific discussion?
You do know that diurnal is the daily tempertaure difference?

70.8% of the stations have a bias greater than 2C, 6.2% of which are greater than 5C - but
  1. the bias has no effect on temperature differences at each station !
  2. US tempertaures are not global temperatures !
  3. this has no relevance on all of the actual global temperature sets, e.g. those from satellites :jaw-dropp!
Basically the paper is putting better numbers on what everyone already knows.

 
Funny, I'm the only one reporting on these biases in the peer reviewed scientific literature. I guess I'm the only one reading this stuff.
Funny, the reason seems blinding obvious.
Other people in this thread know that the Arctic, Antarctic and the US are not the entire world and that subject of this thread is global warming :eye-poppi.
 
Just that the bias in temperature is significantly higher than the change being measured. A first year science student's very first lab is determining the error in measurement and the statistical significance. A 10 degree error trying to measure 0.1 degree change makes it statistically impossible to determine.

It's meaningful, to scientists.
Which is why they record temperature anomaly not direct temperatures - you're not doing so good with following even the basic science and statistics involved.
 
None of which has been attributed to Global Warming, Why? Because weather is not climate.

If you're going to present examples of weather as climate the least you can do it convert to 1962 dollars and express it on a per capita basis. Do you know how much damage the same tornado did in 1920? The exact same tornado in the exact same path? I'm going to leave it to you to think about for a second. Hopefully you'll see why the cost of natural disasters is on the rise, and it doesn't have anything to do with global warming.
Where does 1920 come into it? From the linked article (http://daviddegraw.org/2011/08/unpr...f-2011-leads-to-record-265-billion-in-losses/)

...Altogether, the loss amount was more than five times higher than the first-half average for the past ten years.
...

Just a bit more than the rate of inflation!
 
I don't know what you mean?

Obviously not.

Unless a soure of bias is newly introduced or varies over time, then a time series of temperatures all with that same bias will still reveal a trend.

I had decade in mind when I was writing that. It's kind of irrelevant, I was just trying to put it into context. It's hard to measure something as small as temperature change with instrumental error that large.

Not if the instrumental error remains the same over time.

If this Antarctic instrumental error (which you'll agree applies only in certain circumstances, and at most half the time) really introduces wild inacurracies we would see equally wild variations in Antarctic annual average temperatures, but we don't.

No it isn't, I know how inaccurate the measurements are and how little change they're trying to measure. It's nothing new to me.

Of course not, it's the sort of thing you'll see constantly chewed-over in your comfort-zone. That and snide innuendos about the warmist bias of climate scientists.

You'll have noticed that in the abstract you're so entranced by (which no doubt features very prominently on WattsUpMyButt and ClimateFraudit), there is mention of adjustments being made to take account of the particular circumstances that apply. They may be inadequate, but they clearly exist. The most obvious adjustment is to reject measurements that suddenly spike upwards by 8-10C.

Exactly, land based measurements are useless.

From apparent errors in particular circumstances in the Antarctic (which is hardly representative of the global) you hurle away the burden of all land-based measurements. That must be an enormous relief to you, given what they're pointing to.

Talking about any change prior to satellite measurements is just as pointless.

Then lets never speak of them again. No more "0.5C since 1880", because that's way before the satellite era.

No not always ...

And yet you said "the bias in temperature measurements is always positive". Why are you lying to us?

once in a while there are fractional errors that turn out to be positive, but they are few and far apart. It's just lazy and a clear indication of the confirmation bias inherent in the current studies.

Calling the scientists who actually do the work lazy is typically low of you. It's your confirmation bias, backed-up by the echoing voices in your comfort-zone, that leads you to throw out data which affronts you and accuse scientists of manufacturing a warming (which is what you are doing). In fact scientists work extremely hard to get their measurements right.

In very few cases resulting in very small changes.

Whatever happened to Anthony's Watts's Picture Gallery Project? The one which was going to demonstrate how the UHI which he had discovered was going to prove all those scientists to be lazy and biased? Guess it didn't work out.

They come up infrequently and they are discussed openly in all the cases I've seen.

Now you're making stuff up. Or you were lying when you said "the bias in temperature measurements is always positive". Why are you lying to yourself?

Do you have an example of a 10 degree positive bias?

Do you? Occasional 10C errors in measurements are not a bias, they are errors which are easily identified and rejected.

Fat chance of that. They're always small and they're almost always a result of over compensating for the positive bias in measurement!
"Well we're going to show about 2 degrees warmer than it actually is"
"So adjust down 2 degrees"
"Hey, guess what, we only OVERESTIMATED the temperature, again, by 1.5 degrees"
That's called bias. The bias is almost always positive. You don't get brownie points for underestimating your over estimate. :rolleyes:

I guess if I'm going to have a serious discussion about the paper and the bias I'll have to wait for the propaganda machine at RealCrapClimateScience.com to turn out another expose in how to handwave away reality.

You make some stuff up and then support yourself on it. Meanwhile the world warms, the ice melts, and satellite data confirms surface measurements.
 
Funny, the reason seems blinding obvious.
Other people in this thread know that the Arctic, Antarctic and the US are not the entire world and that subject of this thread is global warming :eye-poppi.

So we'll just discard those, they aren't part of the global average. :boggled:

Science doesn't work like that. Good science at least, junk science might.
 
70.8% of the stations have a bias greater than 2C, 6.2% of which are greater than 5C - but
  1. the bias has no effect on temperature differences at each station !

  1. Yes it does. The bias isn't consistent from day to day and month to month. You obviously didn't read the paper to understand the sources of the bias.

    [*]US tempertaures are not global temperatures !
    Yes they are. So are Canada's and South America's and Asia,even little old Australia. They're all global temperatures. (cuz they're all part of the globe)

    The moon's temperature, not global. The sun temperature? Not global.

    [*]this has no relevance on all of the actual global temperature sets, e.g. those from satellites :jaw-dropp!
    Yes they do. You're obviously unaware of how the temperatures on the planet are currently being measured.
Basically the paper is putting better numbers on what everyone already knows.


Yes, what they know but don't like to admit.

Deny, deny, deny.
 
Measurements began in 1880. Do the math.

I'm really beginning to lose faith in this forum, the simplest things always present the most confusion.

The source you quote says "This value is 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average," from which you seem to be trying to interpret "0.5oC increase over the last 130 years" Read what is actually stated. I'm really losing faith in some in this forum, the simplest issues of basic education and fundemental science and math understanding seem to present the most confusion.
 
None of which has been attributed to Global Warming, Why? Because weather is not climate.

If you're going to present examples of weather as climate the least you can do it convert to 1962 dollars and express it on a per capita basis. Do you know how much damage the same tornado did in 1920? The exact same tornado in the exact same path? I'm going to leave it to you to think about for a second. Hopefully you'll see why the cost of natural disasters is on the rise, and it doesn't have anything to do with global warming.

You mean factors like 1920 experienced only two major outbreaks of tornado-spawning super-cell storms which generated 31 significant, 14 violent and 28 killer weather events, with a total of some 600 fatalities and around 2500 injuries in a much smaller range, whereas 2011 has thus far generated 800+ significant, violent, and killer weather events, more than 20,000 injuries and some 600+ fatalities, at a little over half way through the year.

Of course, it is evident that emergency medical care and technology have advanced greatly to "weather" the obvious climatic increases in destructive force and range of phenomena with only marginal increases in fatalities. What is not evident, however is that the increases in modern damage expenses are solely due to inflated property values.
 
Just that the bias in temperature is significantly higher than the change being measured.

Please provide documented and compelling supportive evidence which clearly specifies that which you assert.

A first year science student's very first lab is determining the error in measurement and the statistical significance. A 10 degree error trying to measure 0.1 degree change makes it statistically impossible to determine.

please provide evidence which supports your assertions that all equipment being used in the effort to detect and measure global temperatures display a 10 degree bias error.

Please provide evidence that 0.1 degree of change is relevent to the issue at hand, Antarctic temperature change, or the general topic, global average temperature change.

It's meaningful, to scientists.

A curious qualification.
 
Obviously not.

Unless a soure of bias is newly introduced or varies over time, then a time series of temperatures all with that same bias will still reveal a trend.

Yes, and if you read the study you'd know the cloud cover and wind creating the bias isn't by any stretch of the imagination constant with time. It varies, a lot.


If this Antarctic instrumental error (which you'll agree applies only in certain circumstances, and at most half the time) really introduces wild inacurracies we would see equally wild variations in Antarctic annual average temperatures, but we don't.

This doesn't make sense. It's not half of the time and by "averaging" you introduce the bias.

Of course not, it's the sort of thing you'll see constantly chewed-over in your comfort-zone. That and snide innuendos about the warmist bias of climate scientists.

The bias is well established, as is the mediocre effort to make adjustments after the fact.


You'll have noticed that in the abstract you're so entranced by (which no doubt features very prominently on WattsUpMyButt and ClimateFraudit), there is mention of adjustments being made to take account of the particular circumstances that apply. They may be inadequate, but they clearly exist. The most obvious adjustment is to reject measurements that suddenly spike upwards by 8-10C.

Except they haven't, and in more locations than just the Antarctic.


From apparent errors in particular circumstances in the Antarctic (which is hardly representative of the global) you hurle away the burden of all land-based measurements. That must be an enormous relief to you, given what they're pointing to.

Yes, because the bias is 100 times larger than everything else being measured. It's called "too many deviations from norm" :D


And yet you said "the bias in temperature measurements is always positive". Why are you lying to us?

Again, "so small in relation as to be insignificant". It's like rounding off a decimal.


Calling the scientists who actually do the work lazy is typically low of you. It's your confirmation bias, backed-up by the echoing voices in your comfort-zone, that leads you to throw out data which affronts you and accuse scientists of manufacturing a warming (which is what you are doing). In fact scientists work extremely hard to get their measurements right.

And still the bias is in the direction of the funding. Hot Hot Hot.


Whatever happened to Anthony's Watts's Picture Gallery Project? The one which was going to demonstrate how the UHI which he had discovered was going to prove all those scientists to be lazy and biased? Guess it didn't work out.

I don't know, I've seen that site few times, all it's got is a scenery type picture at the top of the page.



Now you're making stuff up. Or you were lying when you said "the bias in temperature measurements is always positive". Why are you lying to yourself?

It's not a lie, as I mentioned the negative bias is just a result of super heated positive bias. 10C!, that's hot, that's like 300 years of business as usual global warming.


Do you? Occasional 10C errors in measurements are not a bias, they are errors which are easily identified and rejected.

Yes, that's why it takes a study to find them. :rolleyes:


You make some stuff up and then support yourself on it. Meanwhile the world warms, the ice melts, and satellite data confirms surface measurements.

If satellite data is confirming surface temps over Antarctic, the Arctic and the US, it needs recalibrating. Just saying.
 
Which is why they record temperature anomaly not direct temperatures - you're not doing so good with following even the basic science and statistics involved.

Nonsense,

For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 14.5°C (58.1°F) was the warmest January-July period on record.

The highlighted part isn't a bias, it's the actual combined measured temperature. You simply aren't following this discussion if you think otherwise.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom