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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Bearing in mind your UFOs didn't land and start eating... isn't it possible that geese fly over the area to get from one place to the other?

Perhaps they tunnel or walk to those areas? Wouldn't that be more plausible than flying? If they tunneled or walked, nobody would mistake them for an alien spaceship. They would have to do it at night, that way nobody would put red marks on the map in those areas.
 
First, if I believe the case has no plausible mundane explanation I have a right to say so – especially if I explain the reasons for my coming to that belief.
You can say it is implausible all you want but you presented it to this forum to be evaluated.
Right. My conclusion is that the case defies plausible mundane explanation. Perhaps however you (or someone else) can come up with a plausible mundane explanation?

If the forum considers the explanations plausible, then you are going to have to accept it.
I said plausible in case you missed it. That means it has to fit with and explain the evidence. It has been demonstrated that your “Geese” hypothesis does not fly (Cape Otway has no geese). And if your “satellite” hypothesis had any veracity – with your expertise and interest in the field - I am almost certain you would have pointed us toward potential candidates by now.

The problem is that you are too close to the sighting. It is your personal sighting and you have convinced yourself that you could not have made a mistake (Remember Feynman's quote about yourself being the easiest person to fool).
I have related the case as it occurred. It is supported by three witnesses (including myself). It is the age old story. The UFO debunker sees such a case, can’t explain it, and therefore immediately “It cannot be, therefore it isn’t”. LOL.

Well, we are going to have take your word for it that they oscillated.
Sure.

However, I have shown that independent satellites can cross the same area of sky appearing to move in formation on a regular basis.
If you have I must have missed it. Perhaps you would care to post that information again? Cape Otway, 11:45 at night, December, 2008.

So it wasn't unique but you got excited about it?
Oh it was unique alright. And yes it did cause a stir in the conversation at that point. Some quickening of the pulses so to speak.

Yet, you wrote it down in your UFO journal but never bothered to check up on it when you got to an internet connection?
Yep.

Is this what you call curiosity?
Nope.

Weren't you interested in checking up on your sighting or weren't you really interested in finding a potential solution?
At the time I had no idea that there was any method of checking up on the sighting.

BTW, you would not have a scan of that journal/document to present, would you?
No.

Be careful, I wouldn't want you to smudge the ink because it might be considered "evidence".
Once I had transcribed it I threw it away. I did not consider it as “important evidence”. I really did not think that much about it.

Amazing that you referred to it as "JUST ANOTHER UFO SIGHTING".
I have had more than one - and have experienced many “strange” things in my life. This was merely one of the less startling among them.

How many have you had over the years?
Seven of the UFO variety, but only three of those I would consider to positively defy plausible mundane explanation. The others I can rationalise as “It simply must have been…(whatever).

You want me to relate the other two? They are very interesting cases.

How fortunate that you can see so many unidentifieds and I haven't see any after all my years of astronomcial observations.
Yes (and that would be “have seen”). But “fortunate”? …I don’t know about that.

Perhaps I am unlucky or maybe I have learned to turn my UFOs into IFOs by looking up for potential solutions.
Many (if not most) people have never seen a UFO, indeed many UFO proponents have never seen a UFO. So I wouldn’t feel too badly about it.

It is also interesting that you characterise it in terms of “lucky” and “unlucky” – as if it is a fortunate thing to see a UFO. Those who have seen them would beg to differ. I would count yourself lucky not to have seen a UFO AstroP. Be careful what you wish for! LOL.

Apparently, you aren't interested in researching anything beyond what these UFO websites have told you based on what we have seen here.
Sure, whatever you say…

Well, we finally discovered the date and location after a little bit of teeth pulling.
Yep, and the location falsifies the two principal competing mundane hypotheses (geese and satellites).

We also discovered you don't seem interested in following up your observations.
I wasn’t interested at the time AstroP – indeed was unaware that one could…

It is amazing how some scientists just have no curiousity about these things.
It is, isn’t it. But perhaps it has something to do with protecting their professional careers against the concerted ridicule and abuse dished out by organisations such as the JREF?

For somebody who is interested in these aerial anamolies you seemed to lack knowledge in things like what types of birds are in your area and the satellites that are visible in your skies.
Oh but I do have that knowledge – it is just that you cannot acknowledge that I do. I know there are no geese in the area (never have been, never will be) and I know there are no satellites that fit the description. You don’t seem to know that yet – or if you do, simply cannot bring yourself to acknowledge it.
 
Perhaps they tunnel or walk to those areas? Wouldn't that be more plausible than flying? If they tunneled or walked, nobody would mistake them for an alien spaceship. They would have to do it at night, that way nobody would put red marks on the map in those areas.

Perhaps you should look at that map again (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cape_barren_Goose.png) ...no need to tunnel through the Otways, the red areas avoid the Otways altogether. Indeed it is telling that there are no red areas to the north of the Otways - yet there are pasture lands to the north... Just a wild guess, but perhaps mountains and rainforest have something to do with the distribution on the mainland?
 
I know you hate Wikipedia... I'm beginning to understand why.
It keeps informing us you're wrong about stuff.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadubanud#Society

So no geese, not ever not a single one ever?
Bearing in mind your UFOs didn't land and start eating... isn't it possible that geese fly over the area to get from one place to the other?
Perhaps before European settlement there were coastal fringe grazing lands available for them - but not any more. And you will also notice that the area on the map showing the Gadubanud people's territory extends well to the west of Cape Otway ...and there are flat grazing lands out there.
 
Once I had transcribed it I threw it away. I did not consider it as “important evidence”. I really did not think that much about it..

So, what you are saying is that you are telling us all of this from memory and not based on any notes at the time. How can you be so certain of all these details then. An old chinese proverb states that the palest ink is better than the best memory. Since your memories of this are over two years old, it is likely there are errors in your recollections.

To top it off, we have no existing evidence that this even happened. You did not report it and you wrote it down but threw the document away. There are no independent UFO reports of the event and there is absolutely no evidence that you saw it as you described. A perfectly plausible explanation for this whole case is you just made it up. Prove me wrong.

Oh but I do have that knowledge – it is just that you cannot acknowledge that I do. I know there are no geese in the area (never have been, never will be) and I know there are no satellites that fit the description. You don’t seem to know that yet – or if you do, simply cannot bring yourself to acknowledge it.

You have failed to demonstrate any knowledge on the subject. I have had to explain to you about how satellites angular speed varies as it crosses the sky. I had to describe to you how some satellites do travel in formation. I had to point out that satellites can travel in polar orbits and that many satellites do so. I also pointed out that your obsevation was not a true south to north direction! You have demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge on all of this.

Now you tell us that these Geese don't ever fly over the cape even though they HAVE to fly over the cape to get to the red areas on the map. I did not see you state the UFOs were on the ground. They were simply overhead flying, which means your claim about there being no geese in the area is completely invalid.

For somebody who continues to claim scientific credentials (even though we now know that is something of an exaggeration), you really don't know much at all. All of this pretending to know things makes your credibility drop. So why should we trust you when you claim to have seen all these strange things?
 
Five generations of living in the area and an intimate knowledge of the land and its wildlife.


Knowledge isn't inherited. And you've already demonstrated several times that you don't have the expertise to venture a qualified opinion about birds. Your continued insistence won't change that.
 
Five generations of living in the area and an intimate knowledge of the land and its wildlife.

well excuse me, but your testimony that there are no geese in that area is laughable in the light of zoology reports that say the opposite, if youre bringing you're family into it, who you haven't even asked then thats just insulting, at what point did you consult with your great great grandfather about the local bird populations.

what you mean really, is that you don't want to believe that there are geese in the area and you didn't bother to check the map link

so here just for you
the red areas show goose populations
the green dot is cape Otway
800px-cape_barren_goose.jpg

how can you possibly deny this.
just another lie from you isn't it Ramjet
you wouldn't know the truth if it kicked you in the kibid
:D
 
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Once I had transcribed it I threw it away. I did not consider it as “important evidence”. I really did not think that much about it…
So, what you are saying is that you are telling us all of this from memory and not based on any notes at the time. How can you be so certain of all these details then.
Once I had transcribed it…

To top it off, we have no existing evidence that this even happened. (…) Prove me wrong.
LOL. Yeah right.

Oh but I do have that knowledge – it is just that you cannot acknowledge that I do. I know there are no geese in the area (never have been, never will be) and I know there are no satellites that fit the description. You don’t seem to know that yet – or if you do, simply cannot bring yourself to acknowledge it.
You have failed to demonstrate any knowledge on the subject. I have had to explain to you about how satellites angular speed varies as it crosses the sky. I had to describe to you how some satellites do travel in formation. I had to point out that satellites can travel in polar orbits and that many satellites do so. I also pointed out that your obsevation was not a true south to north direction! You have demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge on all of this.
If you could have pointed toward candidate satellites to support your hypothesis – then you would have done so.

Now you tell us that these Geese don't ever fly over the cape even though they HAVE to fly over the cape to get to the red areas on the map.
Get your facts straight before posting again please. I stated that they do not fly over the Otways (meaning the mountain range). Not only that, they do not even have to fly over the cape itself to “get to the red areas”. And, if you had read very carefully you would also have noted I did not say Cape Otway was the precise location, just “near enough” for the purposes. Oh ...yeah, right, sure …I am “deliberately hiding things again”! LOL.
 
If you could have pointed toward candidate satellites to support your hypothesis – then you would have done so.


You haven't given him enough information to do so. Do you realize how difficult it is to project all the possible combinations of satellites that might be visible together at the same time in the sky, in such a broad region, over the span of a month, several years ago?


Have a look at this video, if you'd like a clue:



Rramjet said:
First, if I believe the case has no plausible mundane explanation I have a right to say so – especially if I explain the reasons for my coming to that belief.


You can say it is implausible all you want but you presented it to this forum to be evaluated. If the forum considers the explanations plausible, then you are going to have to accept it. The problem is that you are too close to the sighting. It is your personal sighting and you have convinced yourself that you could not have made a mistake (Remember Feynman's quote about yourself being the easiest person to fool). This means your objectivity to what is implausbile and plausible is lost.


Plausibility is an opinion, a subjective value judgment. Plausibility cannot be measured on any objective scale. What one person finds plausible, another may reject as implausible. Any two people might have very different opinions about whether something is plausible, and neither of them be reliably proven right or wrong in their assessment. A hundred different researchers could assess the same body of cases and come to a hundred different conclusions as to which cases "defy plausible mundane explanation" and which don't.

Your hypothesis about "Some UFO stories defy plausible mundane explanation" makes about as much sense as hypothesizing that Michael Bay's next movie will contain a satisfactory quantity of explosions or tomorrow will turn out to be a nice day.

That is why your hypothesis is unfalsifiable. It's merely a matter of opinion, not provable either way. Setting yourself up as the sole arbiter of what is "plausible" is an arrogant, dishonest, pseudoscientific means to assume a pretend authority for your own personal feelings about UFOs.

By the way, it seems incongruous that your standards for "evidence" are so lenient, while at the same time your standards for "plausible explanations" can be so ridiculously high. I wonder if some kind of extreme bias might be the cause of such an inconsistency...

Rramjet, you can copy and paste as many definitions as you like, but that does not address this valid criticism I have just made.
 
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well excuse me, but your testimony that there are no geese in that area is laughable in the light of zoology reports that say the opposite,
What “zoology reports?

what you mean really, is that you don't want to believe that there are geese in the area and you didn't bother to check the map link

so here just for you
the red areas show goose populations
the green dot is cape Otway
You mean this link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cape_barren_Goose.png)?

Funny how there are no red areas over Cape Otway. No geese over cape Otway? No geese over Cape Otway. And the map shows that to be the case.

(Funny how the “green dot” on your representation of the map obscures that fact isn’t it? :cool:)
 
You haven't given him enough information to do so. Do you realize how difficult it is to project all the possible combinations of satellites that might be visible together at the same time in the sky, in such a broad region, over the span of a month, several years ago?
A month? I have given you the precise date and time! It does not surprise me that you missed it… oh well, better luck next time. And as for “broad region"? Then that gives you more scope (more latitude) to get your satellite hypothesis up doesn’t it? I mean it works to your advantage, not the against it.

Plausibility is an opinion, a subjective value judgment.
Plausible:having an appearance of truth or reason; seemingly worthy of approval or acceptance; credible; believable” (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/plausible).

If you propose an explanation that fulfils those criteria, I will accept it. Can you do so?
 
Get your facts straight before posting again please. I stated that they do not fly over the Otways (meaning the mountain range). Not only that, they do not even have to fly over the cape itself to “get to the red areas”. And, if you had read very carefully you would also have noted I did not say Cape Otway was the precise location, just “near enough” for the purposes. Oh ...yeah, right, sure …I am “deliberately hiding things again”! LOL.


You have now likely removed all doubt that you are intentionally lying...

... but there were no geese. No geese live in the area and none migrate over the area. Never have and never will. For that matter, there is nowhere for any migrating bird to have come from but the open ocean... unless perhaps they were Emperor Penguins.

Some of us already knew it, of course.

Regarding your alleged sighting, alleged because there really isn't any reason to accept that any such incident occurred at all, it doesn't matter what you say about birds. It doesn't matter if your sighting was at Cape Otway or if it was actually nearer Apollo Bay. Your consideration of the bird issue is irrelevant. You have clearly shown that you don't understand bird behavior and that you aren't able to properly interpret a bird range map. Your qualifications to speak with any expertise on that matter have been challenged, and you have failed completely to demonstrate that you have any such qualifications.
 
Once I had transcribed it….

Transcribed it to where? Do you have a scan of that document? I hope that ink doesn't get smudged.

If you could have pointed toward candidate satellites to support your hypothesis – then you would have done so..

I already pointed out how it was possible for four satellites to create the illusion of a formation from a brief sample of Heaven's above. I also pointed out that you have already stated you will refuse to accept satellites as a plausible explanation. Since you have already made up your mind on the matter, I really don't see the point of obtaining the thousands of TLE's for December 2008 and then run them through Orbitron to see if I get a match. If you were really interested, you would have stated "maybe" and then I would have made the effort.

Get your facts straight before posting again please. I stated that they do not fly over the Otways (meaning the mountain range). Not only that, they do not even have to fly over the cape itself to “get to the red areas”. And, if you had read very carefully you would also have noted I did not say Cape Otway was the precise location, just “near enough” for the purposes. Oh ...yeah, right, sure …I am “deliberately hiding things again”! LOL.

Boy, you really are pushing it aren't you? You are now changing what you stated when you originally stated:

especially when they don't consider the topography of the Cape Otway area and consider that geese fly to the mainland to graze on pasture - and the Cape Otway area is mountainous and rainforested.

Now you seem to be moving your location. Hmmmm....didn't I predict you might do something like that?
 
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What “zoology reports?
the ones made by zoologists who say that youre wrong

Funny how there are no red areas over Cape Otway. No geese over cape Otway? No geese over Cape Otway. And the map shows that to be the case.
The map shows breeding locations, how do you think they get around ?
for you to be right they'd need to walk from one site to another

(Funny how the “green dot” on your representation of the map obscures that fact isn’t it? :cool:)
the only thing thats obscured here is any trace of your intellect. The green dot, was placed for clarity, anyone is free to look at the original, I'll even post them together for you right here

800px-Cape_barren_Goose-1.png
800px-cape_barren_goose.jpg


so what youre now trying to claim, is that its not you who's been caught lying about your evidence again and again in this thread, but me, who's being dishonest by placing a green dot to show where cape otway is in relation to geese nesting sites for the benefit of anyone not familiar with the area.

Its a cape, rramjet, do you know what a cape is, it isn't a town, its a stretch of coastline.

but again, your attempts at dishonesty over some Geese is now available for all to see
and its pathetic, like your evidence
:p
 
If you propose an explanation that fulfils those criteria, I will accept it. Can you do so?

Yes I can. I find it plausible that you never experienced such an event. There is nothing to support it. It is just your word and nothing else, and there is evidence that you do tend to "exaggerate" claims. That makes it plausible that you would make something up.
 
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