In this post, I attempt to tie the
Opening Post to the issue of
molten metal.
The
OP is framed as
the legal defense in a ficticious criminal case presenting evidence to cast
reasonable doubt on the culpability of certain Al Qaeda operatives. This culpability rests in the follwoing assertion: 19 members of Al Qaeda acted out a plan conceived by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, planned with the help of a few others, and sponsored and approved by Osama Bin Laden, to hijack four civilian airliners and pilot them into four buildings. Al Qaeda is thus accused of conspiring to hijack planes (a federal crime) in four cases, and murder (a federal and state crime) in several hundred cases.
The legal defense team's goal would be to show that these Al Qaeda operatives did not hijack and crash planes and thus relieve them of culpability as per the legal accusation.
The OP is outspoken about it not going to rely on an alternative story:
Much of this thread has circled around the issue of
molten steel. So let me quote what the OP said about molten steel:
I submit that any reports of molten steel after the collapses do not cast any doubts on the legal culpability of the 19 hijackers and their co-conspirators: The argument does not even address the matter of hijackings and crashes. What is the jury supposed to think about this issue of molten steel? It means nothing more and nothing less that there may have been molten steel at Ground Zero. Without a theory that ties molten steel to the deeds of the accused, this issue does not belong in the court room. It is very much like introducing reports of dildos found in the rubble: You would not expeczt dildos in an office building, so...???
However, tmd wants us, (or) the jury, to think that
- molten steel, as reported, is impossible or at least prohibitively unlikely, to form on Ground Zero unless intentionally created by someone
- reports of molten steel are reliable: That the witnesses who reported molten steel did in fact see molten steel
- 1.+2. mean that someone must have created molten steel intentionally, or must have put steel-melting stuff there
- the same means that created the observed amounts of molten steel were used to help demolish the towers
- No Al Qaeda operative hijacked any of the planes that crashed into the towers because someone made steel melt on Ground Zero
There is a lit wrong with this reasong:
- We can't fail to notice that this is an alternative theory! tmd told us that he did not assume the burden of presenting an alternative theory, so he would not also have the burden of proving it. But if that is his intention, he should not use an alternative theory. If he does, he must also prove it is.
- #1 is not proven (even though most here agree that bulk amounts of steel melting for "natural" reasons is very unlikely)
- #2 is not proven (I'll get to that later)
- #3 is not conclusive; even if steel melting is highly improbable: If molten steel is indeed observed, that changes the probability for natural occurrence drastically, as anyone who ever heard of understood Bayesian probability will appreciate.
- #4 is pure conjecture. No one has yet been able to tie both events together in one internally consistent theory (I'll get to that later)
- #5 is an outright Non-Sequitur, a logical fallacy
We see that the "molten steel" argument hinted at by the legal defense operates on unproven premises, and employs several inconclusive steps of reasoning. It is broken in every single link, beginning with the first, ending with the last.
Conclusion: The evidence presented by the defense counsellor is dismissed as there is no logical or factual connection to the case at hand.
Now let us inspect more closely the theory that "reports of molten steel mean towers were intentionally demolished", without thinking any longer about hijacked planes and Al Qaeda, in other words, totally off topic to this thread:
The theory would hold water if all of the following were true:
- There are in fact witness reports of molten steel
- The witnesses did in fact mean "steel", and not "metal", and they did in fact mean "molten", and not "glowing" or "bent" or anything of the sort
- Those valid witnesses had a valid analytical method at their disposal to correctly identify an observed material as being steel and as being liquid
- The witnesses did in fact employ that valid method
- There exists no "natural" reason for steel to melt in the conditions found at Ground Zero
- The only alternative explanation is thermite
- Thermite does in fact explain all (or most) of the confirmed reports of molten steel
- There further exists a single theory that explains reports of molten steel after 9/11 and explains how the towers were demolished on 9/11
- This theory makes falsifiable predictions
- Attempts have been made to falsify these predictions
- These attempts have failed
- As a bonus: Any evidence exists that there was indeed thermite present
Step 1 is rather trivial: Yes, we have all heard and read from witnesses who claimed the presence of molten steel. We must guard however against those truthers who employ reports of "molten
metal", or "
red-hot steel" in a way that suggests a corroboration of "molten"+"steel"
Step 2 is tricky and contested: As EDX has shown repeatedly, it is quite normal for witnesses of large fires to speak of "molten steel" when in fact they mean "softened and bent steel" or "glowing metal", etc. One would have to chack with these witnesses to find out what they really meant. Also, some
Step 3 is not fact for most, if not all, genuine witnesses of molten steel: It is clear that hardly anybody has the experience and training to tell molten steel from molten other metal, or even molten steelk from glowing oxidized steel. The defense team would have to point out which of their witnesses have this kind of experience and training; does a structural engineer have this expertise? We have structural engineers on this very board, and they would deny they can do that. We have heard from an actual metallugist, Sunstealer, who clearly does have the required experience and training to identify metals in their various states, and he has unequivocally testified that it is
not possible to do that analysis by sight alone, even with the best of relevant expertise.
Step 4 is trivial now: Since the only proper way to identify a material as both steel and liquid is to actually analyse it: For example, do some sort of spectroskopy, or measure the melting point; and since nothing of the sort has been done by any of the known witnesses for molten steel,
there exists no proof that molten steel was actually observed at Ground Zero by any one witness.
Step 5 is non-trivial and has not been conclusively shown by any truther. However, I would be willing to just concede this claim.
Step 6 is non-trivial (there certainly are other possibilities; human ingenuity knows few bounds). However, I am willing to concede that thermite at least is one possible (in principle) alternative explanation: Thermite can melt steel.
Step 7 is not fact. Even if there were confirmed reports of molten steel (there are none, see step 4), thermite is an unlikely candidate. Here is why: Any observed molten steel must be on the surface - it is thus not insulated and will cool rapidly. As the Wikipedia article on
thermite welding explains, the liquid iron cools so fast that a train can run over a track freshly welded by thermite after 45 minutes. Thus any molten steel that was melted by thermite had its thermite reaction take place a very short time before the observation was made. However, such a reaction itself was never observed, even though it releases very bright, even dangerous amounts of light, including UV light. In addition, neither thermite itself nor its reaction products (slags of iron and aluminium oxide) have been found. The reaction would suddenly introduce great heat to the vicinity and very likely incinerate any unburnt other material; such outbursts of flames would have sparked as much attention as the flow of liquid steel. Also, there is no explanation yet of what would ignite the thermite weeks after the event, but minutes before the observation. It seems that almost all reports of allegedly molten steel describe a bulk property of the portion of the debris in question: It was generally quite hot
Step 8: Such a theory does not exist. The problem here is mainly that charges of pounds and more of thermite rigged to the intact tower would get destroyed and dispersed during the collapse. There are very few ways out of this dilemma: One would be to posit extremely large charges, another to posit extremely large overall amounts. Another problem is quite trivial: If there was a plan to destroy the towers with thermite charges, then the planners would have tried to use all the charges during the collapse initiation phase; any unburned charge would have reduced the chance of success, or raised the proportion of unnecessary redundancy. Ideally, NO thermite is left after collapse initiation, and ALL molten steel has resolidified
minutes later (as molten steel would disperse just like dust and mix with more than enough cool material). So again, the way out is to posit extreme amounts of thermite on top of what's sufficient to do the demolition. Then, again, we have the problem of how to burn the thermite such that molten steel weeks later is the result: You either have noticeable reactions for unknown reasons later, or the stuff burns continually. The latter is impossible. Here is why: One gram of thermite contains a theoretical maximum of 3.9kJ of energy (heat). If you let that burn over a period of, say, 2 weeks, or 1,209,600 seconds, that's a power of 3,900J/1,209,600s/gram, or 0.003W/g, or 3.2W/kg. A large dog (15kg) produces about twice as much heat per kg of his own weight (a dog produces as much heat as a 100W light bulb, or about 100W/15kg = 6.7W/kg).
Dogs are twice as able to melt steel as concentrated thermite would be if you managed to let it keep burning for 2 weeks.
Step 9: Without a theory, it is not clear which predictions can be made. At a bare minimum I would expect to find: Traces of thermite, or reaction products; Members of structural steel that show signs of one end having been severed by melting; observations of very bright white light as thermite reactions take place; findings of serious amouns of resolidified steel. AFAIK, none of those predictions have come true; all are falsified. This alone breaks the theory
Step 10+11: Truthers have not exposed themselves to this kind of scrutiny. No truther theory has stood the test of scientific rigour
Step 12: The only purported incidence of positive proof for thermite is the paper by Harrit e.al. at Bentham publishers. It has been thoroughly debunked based on its own data: It drwe unwarranted conclusions; better conclusions must be drawn from the data; these point towards paint, not thermite.
To summarize: Truthers who think reports of molten metal are indicative of intentional demolition of the towers have a vague theory in mind that no one has so far fully spelled out; but of rigid necessity, that theory has unproven premises, has logical and factual gaps, and is not supported by any evidence at all. The conclusions truthers wish to draw from such a theory are thus invalid for a multitude of reasons.
Such a theory, even if it existed and had merits, does nothing to cast reasonbable doubts on the accusation that Al Qaeda operatives planned and carried out four plane hijackings and hundreds of cases of murder.