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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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The set of plausible mundane explanations is a very restricted set. All those things that cannot “fly” are ruled out for a start (leaving only those things that could plausibly have been in the air at the time and place).

Like oil well fires?

Then all one has to do is determine if other descriptive characteristics match any known flying objects – shape for example:

You mean like blimp shapes?

If there is not sufficient information, then either that is how the case must be labelled – or it is admitted that plausible mundane explanations do exist.

And that describes pretty much all the cases you have been presenting and also the conclusion that I have reached. Not enough information!

No, the original source is the only thing that counts (or a verified transcript of the original source). If you don’t begin with the original source you are very likely to pick up erroneous information about the case without even knowing you have done so.

The stop linking to tinfoil sites then. You have been guilty of exactly this since the start of the thread.

First, just because it is possible for eyewitness testimony to be inaccurate, does not mean that in any particular instance it will be.

However, some conclusions can be drawn based on such testimony.

And he goes on to repeat the same old claim without any evidence whatsoever.

If we had just one report – then it might easily be dismissed. But of course we have thousands of ostensibly reliable reports made by ostensibly reliable witnesses.

You start with the assumption that all those unidentified objects are connected in some way. Very unscientific. Or is this your null hypothesis?

There has to be a reason why any perception or observation might be considered erroneous – and if we can find no factors that would provide that reason – then we work on the principle that visual perception is accurate unless any of the (following conditions) apply.

So all eyewitnesses describe correct physical characteristics unless you can find a reason why they wouldn't (which you never seem to be able to do). Fascinating opinion.

It’s not rocket science, but it does take some knowledge of the factors involved (and of course I am attempting, despite the opposition from people like AstroP to bring those factors to people’s attention).

You mean those sweaping generalizations you keep repeating? Maybe you should try to be more specific. You know...present it like a trained scientist would?
 
Now while you conceivably might have some quarrel with Baker (who was he, what was his expertise?) Do you really have any quarrel with the expertise of the Navy or Air Force?.

I believe Baker was associated with NICAP or, at least, had a strong interest in UFOs. He was part of Douglas aircraft.

The Navy and Air Force were analyzing something they had never analyzed before. The Robertson panel mentions talking to a LT Neasham and a Mr. Woo (amazing but that is his name). While they may have had experience analyzing film for battle damage, intelligence, or recon work, what was their expertise in analyzing this type of film? Based on what the Robertson panel notes, they were not exactly proficient at doing this sort of thing. They pointed this out and mentioned that several of the conclusions were determined to be inaccurate according to the panel.

Once again, if you have any data from the film that falsifies the Sea gull hypothesis, feel free to present it. I have yet to see you make a good argument against sea gulls using actual data from the film.
 
Ostensible:

The very first and primary defintion encountered (and of course the definition I mean the word to be read as):

APPARENT, SEEMING

Of course it does not surprise me that you would totally ignore the primary meaning of the word to instead indulge in the obfuscation of a secondary meaning that suits your own particular agenda... that is after all precisely how the debunker mindset works isn't it? Never tackle the substance of the debate if it can be avoided with obfuscation...? :cool:
Talking of which I notice you didn't address my first two points but went straight for the rebuttal of what was a joke.
But if you'd like to discuss the meaning of "apparent" and "seeming" I suppose we could... That's not really going to get you any further forward than "pretending" though.
 
Astrophotographer is a military trained scientist whose internet writings on the UFO phenomena are rational and well reasoned.

Ouch. Before Rramjet jumps on this, I never claimed to be or have been a practicing scientist. I just want to make it clear before somebody starts repeating this. I was the senior enlisted supervisor (E-8) for the Nuclear engineering department for a Submarine (I also served as a technician and a technician supervisor on the other nuclear subs I served upon). I received training as a nuclear operator, which was very extensive training (it took over two years to complete the entire program for my rating in electronics). I don't own a degree and was never an actual officer (Officer paygrade).
 
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Ufology
hows that "moment skyward" thing youre working on going ?
;)
shhh mums the word
I have to admit that, given the arguments from incredulity and the failure to admit error with regards to fallibility of memory, I would have thought the same. However, based on writing style, I have to say that this is a different dude.

Plus my brother and his wife had seen a real UFO.
Wow. A real UFO. You don't say.

...cereologists...
:dl:
 
Only in so far as conclusions which presuppose the existence of entities which have never been demonstrated to exist are even less justifiable than other conclusions.
I agree. While the ETH may exist as a plausible alternative in the face of a lack of plausible mundane alternatives – we do not have any direct evidence that would currently allow a positive conclusion about it.

And the conclusion is never that a particular mundane explanation is definitely the correct one, just that it's the most likely.
Most often one cannot even go as far as that – one is generally stuck with plausible.

The point under discussion was whether the sheer number of unreliable reports makes dismissing them unacceptable. And it doesn't.
I agree. However reliable reports are a different matter. Those cannot be so easily dismissed.

For example the psychology, history and even the evolutionary roots, chemistry and physics of religious experience have been well documented. We know what causes them and we can apply those causal explanations to all cases of religious experience. We cannot say the same for UFO experiences.
I'm pretty sure we can, actually.
You mean you don’t really know. Your mere statement of the unfounded hypothesis there does not magically confer veracity on that hypothesis.

However, religious experiences are not able to be tracked on radar, or photographed or filmed, nor do they leave physical trace evidence.
Again, I'd say they're pretty much on a par.
Really? Are you contending that religious experiences can be tracked on radar, film and photographs and leave physical trace evidence? I would like to see the evidence for that please.

The validity of your supposed radar/photo/physical trace evidence has been utterly demolished on this very thread.
That is a mere statement of faith-based belief. There are many who would disagree.

And I've seen photographs showing Jesus on a toasted cheese sandwich which look much more convincing than the average UFO photograph.
If you have seen Jesus on a toasted cheese sandwich I would really like to see you justify how you came to the belief that it was actually Jesus.

Our pattern seeking brains never stop seeking patterns. Sorry, but that's just a fact. And the more unfamiliar what they're struggling to make sense of is, the more likely they are to make a mistake in their interpretation of it.
Oh, so you can explain your Jesus sighting in that way. Very well, perhaps you can then explain the Fortenberry/Nash sighting in that way?

(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-177)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-200)

No?
 
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I agree. While the ETH may exist as a plausible alternative in the face of a lack of plausible mundane alternatives – we do not have any direct evidence that would currently allow a positive conclusion about it.
Well, no. :) You're conflating the words possible and plausible again. Typical pseudoscientific error so don't feel too badly you've done it so many times.

Most often one cannot even go as far as that – one is generally stuck with plausible.
Such as oil well fires.

I agree. However reliable reports are a different matter. Those cannot be so easily dismissed.
Actually, they can. Since anecdotes are unfalsifiable, they are useless to real scientists for validating extraordinary claims.

For example the psychology, history and even the evolutionary roots, chemistry and physics of religious experience have been well documented. We know what causes them and we can apply those causal explanations to all cases of religious experience. We cannot say the same for UFO experiences.
Why not? They present exactly the same way. Look at your religious like belief.

You mean you don’t really know. Your mere statement of the unfounded hypothesis there does not magically confer veracity on that hypothesis.
LOL.

However, religious experiences are not able to be tracked on radar, or photographed or filmed, nor do they leave physical trace evidence.
Nor have ET. And you forgot FLIR again. LOL! Only a dishonest pseudoscientist would continue to forget FLIR.

Really? Are you contending that religious experiences can be tracked on radar, film and photographs and leave physical trace evidence? I would like to see the evidence for that please.
Really? Are you claiming ET has been tracked on radar, film and photographs and leave physical trace evidence? And you forgot FLIR again. LOL! I'd like to see such evidence of "aliens". It sure hasn't been presented here.

That is a mere statement of faith-based belief. There are many who would disagree.
Name them.

If you have seen Jesus on a toasted cheese sandwich I would really like to see you justify how you came to the belief that it was actually Jesus.
Sounds like physical trace evidence of Jesus to me. Why do you deny physical trace evidence of Jesus?

Oh, so you can explain your Jesus sighting in that way. Very well, perhaps you can then explain the Fortenberry/Nash sighting in that way?
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-177)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-200)
No?
Throwing another one of your embarrassments against the wall? Yes?

The null hypothesis is:

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."​
Will you be presenting evidence to falsify that? What do you believe your latest embarrassment to be?
 
I believe Baker was associated with NICAP or, at least, had a strong interest in UFOs. He was part of Douglas aircraft.
Maybe, but do you really know? – What we do know that Hartmann uses Baker's analysis in his write up in Condon (http://files.ncas.org/condon/text/case49.htm) – so at the very least Hartmann considered Baker to have some expertise in the matter.

And as he was really the only one of whom it is reasonable to contend may have analysed a copy – then we can also assume the Robertson panel viewed Baker’s analysis and not the Navy’s or the Air Force analysis.

The Navy and Air Force were analyzing something they had never analyzed before.
They had never analysed a film before? It is comments like these from you that make me despair of getting any sense from the JREF community at all.

The Robertson panel mentions talking to a LT Neasham and a Mr. Woo (amazing but that is his name).
Only “amazing” if your were born in an introspective part of the country and had no experience of foreign heritage surnames.

While they may have had experience analyzing film for battle damage, intelligence, or recon work, what was their expertise in analyzing this type of film?
Oh, so now they are experienced in film analysis! But you are grasping at straws AstroP. Could they correctly use a densitometer? Of course they could. Could they analyse flight paths? Of course they could. Could they assess angular velocity? Of course they could. Once again you are merely attempting to obfuscate the evidence by calling into question the expertise of what probably were the most expert film analysis people in the world at the time. But of course you must resort to such implausibility’s in order to maintain your belief system.

Based on what the Robertson panel notes, they were not exactly proficient at doing this sort of thing.
Now that is a completely unfounded assertion - and you should be aware by now that the mere statement of unfounded assertion does not somehow magically confer veracity on that assertion.

We were actually discussing who it was that might have assessed a copy of the film. Clearly the Navy and the Air Force had access to the original – so it is implausible to suggest they would have analysed a copy. We are really only left with Baker in that respect – and his conclusions are in line with the previous Navy and Air Force analyses.

They pointed this out and mentioned that several of the conclusions were determined to be inaccurate according to the panel.
It is only the Robertson Panel who comes to such conclusions – and they conducted no analysis of their own. They were merely speculating about what had gone before.

I would defer to the experts in such matters – I find it strange that you do not …actually, in order to maintain your beliefs of course you do not. For you, experts are only expert if they support your own opinions.

As Dr Swords notes: “… one feels that it is appropriate to disagree with these allegedly competent professionals, who unlike ourselves actually worked on the primary copy at the time, with some humility.” (http://www.nicap.org/utah8.htm)

Oh and as a matter of related interest:
Colonel XXXXXX, Executive Officer to Major General John A. Samford, Director of Intelligence, Air Force, advised on October 23, 1952, that another recent extremely credible sighting had been reported to Air Intelligence. A Navy photographer, while traveling across the United States in his own car, saw a number of objects in the sky which appeared to be flying saucers. He tool approximately thirty-five feet of motion-picture film of these objects. He voluntarily submitted the film to Air Intelligence who had it studied by Air Technical Intelligence Center. Experts at the Air Technical Intelligence Center have advised that, after careful study, there were as many as twelve to sixteen flying objects recorded on this film; that the possibility of weather balloons, clouds or other explainable objects has been completely ruled out; and that they are at a complete loss to explain this most recent credible sighting. The Air Technical Intelligence Center experts pointed out that they could not be optical illusions inasmuch as optical illusions could not be recorded on film.

Colonel XXXXX advised that Air Intelligence still feels that the so-called flying saucers are either optical illusions or atmospheric phenomena. He pointed out, however, that some Military officials are seriously considering the possibility of interplanetary ships.
” (http://www.nicap.org/utah5.htm)​

Once again, if you have any data from the film that falsifies the Sea gull hypothesis, feel free to present it. I have yet to see you make a good argument against sea gulls using actual data from the film.
The conclusions of the experts who examined the film are that the “birds” hypothesis does not fly. As I am not an expert in film analysis, I find myself therefore having to defer to the experts who actually examined the film.

Ouch. Before Rramjet jumps on this, I never claimed to be or have been a practicing scientist. I just want to make it clear before somebody starts repeating this. I was the senior enlisted supervisor (E-8) for the Nuclear engineering department for a Submarine (I also served as a technician and a technician supervisor on the other nuclear subs I served upon). I received training as a nuclear operator, which was very extensive training (it took over two years to complete the entire program for my rating in electronics). I don't own a degree and was never an actual officer (Officer paygrade).
I would not have commented, there was no need, but now it has been raised ...In other words a rated electronics engineer (with no formal qualification apart from the rating) who worked in that capacity on nuclear submarines. So since you are so hot on criticising the expertise of qualified scientists to speak on the issue in an area of their own expertise…
 
The null hypothesis is:

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."

Will you be presenting evidence to falsify that?
Okay. Let’s test that hypothesis - but first of course we must put it into the form of testable (falsifiable and null) hypothesis:

If the UFO debunkers are correct and UFO reports principally arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect there to be no difference on defined characteristics (such as shape, size, speed, colour, etc) between “known” (explained) reports and “unknown” (unexplained) reports.

That is, if all reports arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect the descriptive characteristics of the ostensible UFOs to be be evenly distributed between all reports. Yes?
 
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That is, if all reports arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect the descriptive characteristics of the ostensible UFOs to be be evenly distributed between all reports. Yes?

are you being deliberately obtuse, what descriptive characteristics do a flock of birds, the planet venus, oil rig fires, stealth bombers, and a blimp have in common. They have all at one time been mistaken for UFOs, did you miss the pluralisation in "mundane explanations" deliberately ?

really Ramjet, youre scraping the bottom of the desperation barrel now
:rolleyes:
 
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are you being deliberately obtuse, what descriptive characteristics do a flock of birds, the planet venus, oil rig fires, stealth bombers, and a blimp have in common. They have all at one time been mistaken for UFOs

really Ramjet, youre scraping the bottom of the desperation barrel now
:rolleyes:
Well he's actually through the bottom of the barrel having spent the last few weeks scraping this particular one. Despite these things being pointed out to him on numerous occasions, he still insists on repeating this ridiculous notion.
 
are you being deliberately obtuse, what descriptive characteristics do a flock of birds, the planet venus, oil rig fires, stealth bombers, and a blimp have in common. They have all at one time been mistaken for UFOs, did you miss the pluralisation in "mundane explanations" deliberately ?

really Ramjet, youre scraping the bottom of the desperation barrel now
:rolleyes:
Let me help you out there Marduk.

In the statistical analysis of the hypothesis proposed, we take a shape (say “seagull shaped”) and look to see if it is evenly distributed between all reports. If all UFO reports arise from misidentified mundane objects, there is no reason to suppose such a shape will not be evenly distributed between explained and unexplained reports (after all, according to the debunkers they are all misidentified mundane objects…). Unless of course you can think of a reason why the descriptive characteristics would not be evenly distributed…

…oh and if you are tempted to say that some reports are not as reliable as others, then we can test that also.

If reliability were a factor in distributed characteristics, then we would expect the more reliable reports to contain less unexplained cases.
(or the null equivalent for testing purposes of course – that is: there should be no difference in the ratio of explained/unexplained reports considering the factor of reliability) or perhaps you would prefer to simply test: The more unreliable the reports, the more unexplained cases there will be).
 
Okay. Let’s test that hypothesis - but first of course we must put it into the form of testable (falsifiable and null) hypothesis:

If the UFO debunkers are correct and UFO reports principally arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect there to be no difference on defined characteristics (such as shape, size, speed, colour, etc) between “known” (explained) reports and “unknown” (unexplained) reports.

That is, if all reports arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect the descriptive characteristics of the ostensible UFOs to be be evenly distributed between all reports. Yes?

<snork>

Why do you believe that the correctly worded one I provided is not testable? And why in the world would you think yours is? Can you really not see how idiotic your pseudoscientific one is? Or you actually do know it is and you're being deliberately obstructionist so that you can hang onto your delusion?

So, let's put the real null hypothesis back on the table:

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."​
About four fewer assumptions than yours.
 
Let me help you out there Marduk.

In the statistical analysis of the hypothesis proposed, we take a shape (say “seagull shaped”) and look to see if it is evenly distributed between all reports. If all UFO reports arise from misidentified mundane objects, there is no reason to suppose such a shape will not be evenly distributed between explained and unexplained reports (after all, according to the debunkers they are all misidentified mundane objects…). Unless of course you can think of a reason why the descriptive characteristics would not be evenly distributed…

…oh and if you are tempted to say that some reports are not as reliable as others, then we can test that also.

If reliability were a factor in distributed characteristics, then we would expect the more reliable reports to contain less unexplained cases.
(or the null equivalent for testing purposes of course – that is: there should be no difference in the ratio of explained/unexplained reports considering the factor of reliability) or perhaps you would prefer to simply test: The more unreliable the reports, the more unexplained cases there will be).

ah I see, I was right, you are being deliberately obtuse,
thanks
:rolleyes:
 
(shrugs) All I can say at this point is that science obviously has no hold over people who reject science and scientific expertise.

Oh ...and of course, unsurprisingly I guess, it seems my opponents would rather indulge in irrelevent incivility than address the substance of the debate...
 
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<snork>

Why do you believe that the correctly worded one I provided is not testable? And why in the world would you think yours is? Can you really not see how idiotic your pseudoscientific one is? Or you actually do know it is and you're being deliberately obstructionist so that you can hang onto your delusion?

So, let's put the real null hypothesis back on the table:

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."​
About four fewer assumptions than yours.
(shrugs) All I can say at this point is that science obviously has no hold over people who reject science and scientific expertise.

Oh ...and of course, unsurprisingly I guess, it seems my opponents would rather indulge in irrelevent incivility than address the substance of the debate...

LOL. Was that easier than addressing the argument?

So, back to the real world and out of Rramjet pseudoscienceland, here is the falsifiable scientific null hypothesis:

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."​
All it takes is only one confirmed ET. Don't you have the evidence that would validate your belief? If not, why do you cling to your belief?
 
(shrugs) All I can say at this point is that science obviously has no hold over people who reject science and scientific expertise.


As someone who's been more of an observer in the UFO threads, it strikes me as quite funny and ironic that this post would come from you. :D
 
(shrugs) All I can say at this point is that science obviously has no hold over people who reject science and scientific expertise....
You've no idea of how ironic that statement is do you ?
(
Oh ...and of course, unsurprisingly I guess, it seems my opponents would rather indulge in irrelevent incivility than address the substance of the debate...

You think this is a debate then ?
or that anything you've claimed here has any substance ?


are you aware of DOCs 504 page "Evidence for why we know the New Testament writers told the truth"
http://www.internationalskeptics.co...ghlight=Evidence+Testament+writers+told+truth

now weather you agree with the sentiment or not, what does it say about DOC continuously posting inane garbage in a vain attempt to keep his massive thread on the first page
1. rational
2, obsessive
nosce te ipsum
;)
 
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In light of the recent uncivil obfuscations, it once again becomes necessary to reiterate a few things to clarify my position:

The cases I have been presenting defy plausible mundane explanation.

Interestingly the debunkers conclude therefore that can only mean ET.

But I must state that is an unwarranted conclusion. We have no direct evidence for ET.

However, it must be noted that in the absence of plausible mundane explanations and considering the fact that science does not preclude ET visitation and in consideration of the evidence (ostensible “nuts and bolts” craft, intelligent control and associated being) then the ETH becomes a plausible explanatory hypothesis.

Once again however it must be reiterated that this does not mean the ETH is the explanation – looks can be deceiving after all – merely a plausible alternative.

Now the UFO debunkers have contended there is no film evidence.

I have presented the following case:

Tremonton, Utah, UFO Colour Film (02 July 1952)
(http://www.nicap.org/utahdir.htm)
Video including the 1950 Montana film
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kwsvnmwks&feature=channel_page)
Blue Book
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?pagecode=MAXW-PBB11-411)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB11-419)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB11-437)
FBI
(http://www.nicap.org/utah5.htm)
Condon
(http://files.ncas.org/condon/text/case49.htm)
Swords
(http://www.nicap.org/utah8.htm)

Against which the UFO debunkers have launched an (in my opinion) unwarranted attack the credibility of the Navy and Air Force experts in their analyses of the film.

They also cite the Robertson Panel who also speculated about the validity of the analysis – but of course they never analysed the film themselves – merely provided some speculative opinion. Most rational people would defer to the scientific analysis of experts in their own field – but of course the debunkers do not do this – instead they prefer speculative opinion over science in this case (even while demanding the opposite of UFO proponents).

Another caase under discussion is the

Fortenberry/Nash DC-4 UFO sighting (14 Jul 1953)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-177)
(http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page.aspx?PageCode=MAXW-PBB12-200)

(posted by ufology)

The debunkers have put no argument against this case except to contend that because it is possible for eyewitnesses to be mistaken, then they are mistaken in this (and every) case.

Of course that is illogical nonsense.

Finally, in the face of implications that no such exist, I have proposed a testable null hypothesis:

If the UFO debunkers are correct and UFO reports principally arise from misidentified mundane objects, then we would expect there to be no difference on defined characteristics (such as shape, size, speed, colour, etc) between “known” (explained) reports and “unknown” (unexplained) reports.

Here the UFO debunkers dismiss it out of hand. They are simply afraid of scientific, falsifiable null hypotheses – and judging from the posts in this thread following my initial posting of that hypothesis – have merely attempted to deny and ridicule that hypothesis away (wish it into a cornfield I believe is the popular debunker saying)…

Of course there is one poster who has an alleged null hypothesis

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."

Which of course is not a null hypothesis at all – and also the existence of hoaxes and delusions, etc immediately falsifies it.

But of course the poster of this hypothesis is attempting to get at the ETH. However, considering that we do not have proof of the ETH, in that regard, the absence of proof for the ETH does not mean the above hypothesis is true either.
 
Of course there is one poster who has an alleged null hypothesis

"All UFO sightings are the result of mundane explanations."

Which of course is not a null hypothesis at all – and also the existence of hoaxes and delusions, etc immediately falsifies it.


Why is that obviously not a proper null hypothesis?

And why are hoaxes, delusions, and such other mundane explanations, actually not mundane explanations?

Your logic may be obvious to you, but it's not so to everyone else.
 
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