Continuation Part 3 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[bucketoftea]

Once again the guilters who like Novelli's comment don't grasp that anything that decreases the likelihood of accidental contamination explaining the bra clasp result proportionally increases the likelihood of deliberate falsification.

Have you grasped that it also proportionally increases the likelihood that Sollecito did indeed deposit his genetic material there himself during the murder or subsequent staging?

 

[theRealBob]

And it touched specifically the hooks, transferring DNA there but nowhere else? How probable is it?


Walking around and handling objects indiscriminately, without changing protective gear does.

The best way to get DNA on the bra-clasp is to have a cop, or someone aligned with the prosecution ask him a few more questions in jail while holding the too small to notice bra-clasp, then accidently bump into Raff while rubbing it against him. They had six weeks just after the eruption of the murder and beginnings of the investigation to do so.

That would also explain the other unidentified males' DNA on it, which has surprised all of us the whole time.

There was too much staging in the bra-clasp's collection for it to be believable. they just wanted an item to nail Raff, and decided to make a movie of this already certain event....

Funny that Comodi cannot see what I think is clear to Hellmann - contamination on those two and only those pieces of evidence, pieces that share the peculiar quality of making completely no sense in the narrative of the crime, means only one thing - evidence tampering.

Quite right.

Don't worry about machine control stories, or no tests in the last 6 days (which is probably a lie).
If the six day story was true, but the knife was the 197th MK murder item tested that day (with everyone's DNA profiles clutched dearly in Steff's little hand), then the absence of previous tesing days beforehand is meaningless.
The lab did test a few hundred samples relating to this case by the way.
Also, I'd still say that on her performance lately, Commodi is lying about the 6 day thing ...

Go for evidence tampering. That will fit the rather loose facts.

 

[Dan O.]

But merely reading what's being written about the Knox/Sollecito case - let alone posting - is as much as I can stretch to right now. However, since things are bound to get very quiet here over the next six weeks or so, I might take the opportunity to get more up to speed.

I suggest you both head over to where I keep the Kercher wiki. This is where I construct the time lines, cross reference the evidence, build lists of every name mentioned in 16000 pages of scottish trial transcripts (oops, that's not kercher, must be from some previous investigation). It's a massive undertaking for one individual but would be a simple and enjoyable exercise for a larger group. And what we all get is a massively useful searchable resource of condensed facts.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Have you grasped that it also proportionally increases the likelihood that Sollecito did indeed deposit his genetic material there himself during the murder or subsequent staging?

Sure, but it has a much larger effect on the relative probability of accident versus fraud than it does on the relative probability of Raffaele's guilt versus innocence.

If we somehow proved tomorrow with 99.999...9% certainty that Raffaele's DNA was on the bra clasp, and did not get there by accidental contamination, that would prove that either Raffaele did it or the police deliberately framed him.

The total lack of any other evidence of his presence, combined with the total lack of even a single remotely plausible narrative that explains that lack of evidence and the presence of his DNA on the bra clasp, plus the computer evidence that he was at home until at least 21:26 when Meredith had almost certainty already been murdered, adds up to a very high degree of certainty that Raffaele was not involved in Meredith's murder.

I think that if the guilter agenda includes defending the reputation of the Perugian police, as it certainly seems to do for some curious reason or another, guilters should be very careful not to close off their own lines of retreat. If it turns out Raffaele is innocent and Amanda is innocent, you really want to have some story to tell as to how the DNA of two innocent people was found on that bra clasp and that knife other than a deliberate frame job...

 

[Ammonitida]

Have you grasped that it also proportionally increases the likelihood that Sollecito did indeed deposit his genetic material there himself during the murder or subsequent staging?

I think that would be true if there was other tangible evidence linking him to the crime scene. But all we have to connect Sollecito to the crime is a clasp which was found and bagged under questionable circumstances. In a case like this, it's the totality of the evidence that you have to look at.

1) The evidence of an intruder break-in.

2) The truckload of incriminating evidence linking Rudy -- a virtual stranger and burglar -- to the murder.

3) The lack of such evidence linking the other two defendants to the murder.

4) among several other things but I think the above three stand out the most

Considering the above, the DNA on the clasp is either a fluke contamination or a plant by someone associated with the prosecution. The latter seemed unlikely to me until yesterday when Comodi provided apparently false information to the court regarding certain control tests. If she knowingly provided false documentation......

 

[theRealBob]

If we somehow proved tomorrow with 99.999...9% certainty that Raffaele's DNA was on the bra clasp, and did not get there by accidental contamination, that would prove that either Raffaele did it or the police deliberately framed him.

Another way to get Raff's DNA onto the bra-clasp is to test another household item commonly used by him, say a bowl for instance, and then state that this object was the bra-clasp when tested, because it does show his profile on it, There were stacks of things from Raff's place that were screened (with no defence personnel present, even though True Justice For My Website has been claiming in the last few days that one did attend)..

That would explain the fairly inexplicable presence of other people's DNA on the tested item.

It would also explain why the bra-clasp was deliberately ruined before the experts could re-test it.

I've read comments, from Frank's last post I think, that the experts say it isn't particularly conclusive that it is Raff's DNA profile anyway...

 

[Onofarar]

From what I understand about this case, no one has been able to demonstrate that Raffaele's knife inflicted any of the wounds on the victim. In fact, on some of them, that knife has been excluded 100%. My questions are -- just how many wounds were found on Meredith and how many of them could not have come from his knife?

3 and 2

 

[Onofarar]

And this has been independently reported elsewhere too. If true, it suggests only two possibilities:

1) the Perugia court system is incapable of accurately archiving and/or retrieving documentation submitted to the court by law enforcement officials - a situation which would have potentially serious repercussions.

2) Comodi was being.....economical with the truth...... when she claimed that the negative control charts had been lodged with the courts.

I wonder which one of the two it could be.............

I have indicated previously that under estimating Comodi is a mistake. She is devious and cares nothing for the truth.

 

[Onofarar]

The pro-guilt commentaries are sounding more and more like Brezhnev-era Pravda news stories! "Wheat Production At Record Levels: People Give Thanks To Supreme Soviet For World Leadership In Agricultural Productivity". (Note the capitalisation of every word hehe)

This is over. As I said before, I don't really care one way or the other from an emotional point of view, but I do trust my own judgement. And my judgement is that acquittals will ensue for both Knox and Sollecito by the end of October. I certainly care that the imperfect Italian criminal justice system will have seen two ultimately-acquitted people languish in prison for four whole years, in the prime of their lives. And it's been an incredibly interesting study in over-zealous prosecutors and pliable judges (and the perils of selecting inappropriate defence lawyers).

But now, finally, justice will be done. Contrary to what you might read elsewhere, the independent DNA report is essentially inviolable in its reliability. Of course it's correct to say that its importance will be weighed in Hellmann's court, and that it's not automatically accepted by the court. But every indication (including yesterday's debate) indicates that the opinions of Conti and Vecchiotti are robust and accurate. Most of the pro-guilt crowd don't understand (or don't want to understand) that the prosecution arguments on how/why the DNA got onto the knife and clasp are not rendered impossible by the report - but that's not the point. The point is that there were so many massive errors in the forensic process that numerous other possibilities are eminently feasible. In other words, the knife and clasp are unreliable, and therefore inadmissible. And that - I believe - is how Hellmann's court will rule in its deliberations.

I also think that the defence lawyers will - this time around - be able to put forward compelling arguments regarding every other piece of potentially-incriminating evidence (mixed DNA in bathroom, "staged" break-in, bathmat partial print, Quintavalle, etc). And I think that Hellmann has already indicated that he is capable of decent logical reasoning, in the way that Massei self-evidently was not. For all these reasons, I am now highly confident that Hellmann's court will make the correct decision in a few months' time - and that decision will be to acquit Knox and Sollecito of all charges.

Well said, Amen and acquittal can't come soon enough!

 

[theRealBob]

I think that would be true if there was other tangible evidence linking him to the crime scene. But all we have to connect Sollecito to the crime is a clasp which was found and bagged under questionable circumstances. In a case like this, it's the totality of the evidence that you have to look at.

1) The evidence of an intruder break-in.

2) The truckload of incriminating evidence linking Rudy -- a virtual stranger and burglar -- to the murder.

3) The lack of such evidence linking the other two defendants to the murder.

4) among several other things but I think the above three stand out the most

Considering the above, the DNA on the clasp is either a fluke contamination or a plant by someone associated with the prosecution. The latter seemed unlikely to me until yesterday when Comodi provided apparently false information to the court regarding certain control tests. If she knowingly provided false documentation......

The lack of a believable narrative for the murder involving those three is another important clue too. It's case-defining...

 

[Chris_Halkides]

four routes

This is what I feared though, *another* contamination argument. It's unfortunate enough that we have to invoke "contamination" to explain away the clasp, but now the knife blade too? Ick. If Hellmann accepts that it's her profile on the blade, then hopefully he considers the totality of the evidence too -- like the lack of blood as others have mentioned, the fact that it was excluded as the weapon of damage for many of the wounds on Meredith, that it doesn't match the bloodstain knife imprint, etc.

Ammonitida,

There are four basic routes by which DNA can be deposited. Primary transfer, secondary/tertiary transfer, contamination, and evidence-tampering. I happen to think that contamination is the most likely explanation for the knife profile and that secondary/tertiary transfer or evidence tampering are the two most likely explanations for the clasp. With respect to the knife, the most important thing to note is the lack of blood, and the with respect to the clasp, the most important thing to note is the presence of other alleles that are not Sollecito's and are certainly not stutter peaks.

 

[theRealBob]

From what I understand about this case, no one has been able to demonstrate that Raffaele's knife inflicted any of the wounds on the victim. In fact, on some of them, that knife has been excluded 100%. My questions are -- just how many wounds were found on Meredith and how many of them could not have come from his knife?

It's still seen as a hugely defining pointer towards guilt on TJFMW that the experts agreed that the wounds could only have been caused by more than one attacker.

The truth is the cops just sprayed that rubbish a lot, and very loudly, in the early days of the case to the press and anyone else who would listen. And R & A were tucked away in jail from the word go.

The experts, including the prosecution's ones stated that there was no particular evidence in favor of there being more than one attacker. Read the Massei fable. It's all in there including discussion on the possible ownersip of the knife wounds..

The 43 wounds first announced by the police, in court eventually became 23. Just like dropping one attacker out.

 

[JREF2010]

I have indicated previously that under estimating Comodi is a mistake. She is devious and cares nothing for the truth.

"is devious and cares nothing for the truth".

I thought that was Rudys description?

 

[Ammonitida]

I have indicated previously that under estimating Comodi is a mistake. She is devious and cares nothing for the truth.

That's one of the reasons why I'm not so optimistic about the future outcome. She may have knowingly provided the court with false information yesterday. If she's willing to go that far to secure Knox's conviction, then Knox is in real trouble. Perhaps the next time she pulls out "new" evidence, it won't be an obvious pile of BS like the "control documents" and will deceive Hellman.

 

[JREF2010]

Ammonitida,

There are four basic routes by which DNA can be deposited. Primary transfer, secondary/tertiary transfer, contamination, and evidence-tampering. I happen to think that contamination is the most likely explanation for the knife profile and that secondary/tertiary transfer or evidence tampering are the two most likely explanations for the clasp. With respect to the knife, the most important thing to note is the lack of blood, and the with respect to the clasp, the most important thing to note is the presence of other alleles that are not Sollecito's and are certainly not stutter peaks.

I'm trying to read more on the clasp. Frank had the C&V charts with arrows for the new alleles. They were excluded by Stefanoni, but several far over 50rfu, a couple I think 200rfu.

Stefanoni included 20rfu for Merediths DNA.

So do the new alleles change the profile to someone other than Raffaele or is it these alleles that bring in "unknown profiles of someone"?

yes, Stefanoni's own testing was negative for blood. I cant think of anything that can prevent the knife from going to the evidence garbage-pile.

 

[Fine]

WOW! let's go with that. The idiot handling the clasp allowed the thumb on the glove that he has been holding the hooks of the clasp by to get so soiled that it is visibly darker than the rest of the glove.


No Fine. you are seeing only what you expect to see. You play that flash video again and again and each time you see the same thing. That's the way the mind works. It isn't going to reinterpret what it has already decoded. You have to find a different perspective to get new data so a fresh interpretation can be formed. That is why I downloaded the video and stepped through that piece one frame at a time. There is no "err maybe an artifact" about it. The clasp is seen in each and every frame from when the light of the flashlight is upon it to where it is placed on the floor next to the "Y" marker (except for the few frames where another person is bending down in front of the camera probably to place that "Y" marker on the floor).

I'm not asking you to believe me. I'm telling you what I know and how I know it. It's up to you to confirm or disprove it if you wish. Simply denying it will not lead to a further understanding of the truth.

______________

Dan,

Well, yeah, apparently that's exactly what the other person was doing, placing the "Y" marker on the floor. Here's the missing video segment showing the time when the bra clasp was first picked up. At that point in time, the "Y" marker was absent. See: VIDEO. (Later in this video you can see Meredith's bra and panties being professionally stuffed into plastic bags.)

///

 

[Chris_Halkides]

not a simple yes or no

I'm trying to read more on the clasp. Frank had the C&V charts with arrows for the new alleles. They were excluded by Stefanoni, but several far over 50rfu, a couple I think 200rfu.

Stefanoni included 20rfu for Merediths DNA.

So do the new alleles change the profile to someone other than Raffaele or is it these alleles that bring in "unknown profiles of someone"?

JREF2010,

I posted a long comment on the clasp about three weeks ago, and you can also check my blog for two articles. Here is a link to a different blog on the DNA evidence in this case. The answer to your question is not straightforward, but I would say that even if one allows that it is Raffaele's DNA on the clasp, the presence of other alleles is devastating to the prosecution's case. If their DNA ended up on the clasp innocently, why not Raffaele's?

 

[mdana]

I notice that I am confused.

I had previously said that I did not expect Novelli to defend Stefanoni in court. Even though this is not a statement from testimony (no one but Conti and Vecchiotti testified yesterday, as far as I know), I think it still counts as a significant surprise with respect to that expectation.

My probability of Knox and Sollecito's guilt has just gone up by a factor of 2 (from "below 1/1000" to merely "below 1/500"). If Novelli gives testimony defending Stefanoni, it could go up by an order of magnitude, potentially reaching 1/100. My probability of Knox and Sollecito's acquittal by the Hellmann court, meanwhile, has gone down from 80% (after reading Sfarzo's latest) to 70%, where it currently sits. (As you can see, I have -- or rather had! -- slightly more respect for Novelli than I expect the court to: my odds of innocence were cut in half, but my acquittal odds were multiplied by a factor of 7/12.)

(1) Multiplication will result in decrease if the "multiplier" is less than 1. (As 7/12 is, for example.)

(2) Be careful not to confuse probability and odds. A probability of 70% corresponds to an odds ratio of 7/3; 80% probability corresponds to an odds ratio of 8/2, or 4/1. And 7/3 divided by 4/1 is 7/12. Hence my 4/1 odds ratio (80% probability) was multiplied by 7/12 to obtain 7/3 (70% probability).

Hence my next post.

Never mind you wrote percentages, and I read those as odds. You were stating 1-4 to 1-2.33

I see odds in terms of payouts, and I found your original post to be confusing. If it were something everyone (for example, a football fan subset) was familiar with like the odds of the NY Jets winning the AFC East, then it would be easier to follow your post. However, when you introduce new information, such as your idiosyncratic weighting of certain factors, it is best for the reader to not be forced to switch back and forth between equivalent but not exactly the same types of numbers. You go from odds ratios to percentages back to odds ratios, causing needless confusion, IMO. I am working under the impression you want the reader to understand the points you are trying to make.

I really enjoy this forum. However, I find those with stronger math and science skills or background too often not being able to make their cases to a wider audience, due to confused and imprecise writing or overestimating others familiarity with mathematical/scientific concepts.

 

[mdana]

He feels it is voodoo science and keystone *cop* forensics, in my opinion.

And you are correct, *common sense* as well as other evidence indicates the knife is not the murder weapon.

I have been working under the impression that AK jumped on her personal trampoline and landed on her waterbed (which both conveniently disappeared since 11/02/07) as she savagely put the knife to MK (half way of course). I don't see how you can jump to some half-baked conclusion it is not the murder weapon. -Sarcasm Off

 

[mdana]

4) The testimony of Quintavalle: The prosecution alleges that Quintavalle's testimony is reliable and accurate, and apparently Massei's court somehow accepted this. Quintavalle says that Knox came into his shop at 8am on the morning after the murder, and browsed in the cleaning products area. Since Knox claims she was in bed at Sollecito's apartment until around 10am, Quintavalle's testimony would be very damaging if true. But according to Quintavalle's employee, when the police visited shortly after the murder, Quintavalle didn't recall seeing either Knox or Sollecito - despite even being shown photos of the two. He only came forward with his story a year after the murder, at the "request" of a newspaper journalist. The rational explanation is that Quintavalle is either honestly confused (maybe he's retrospectively convinced himself that he really did see Knox that morning), or he's simply a liar. Either way, the way his testimony came to light clearly significantly affects its reliability and veracity to the degree that it's probably useless.

Was he paid for his original interview with the reporter? I thought I read that earlier this year, but I can't locate the source. If so, there is a monetary incentive.

-edited