UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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You may not be religious but as you say on your website "The paranormal has been a part of my life-experience all the way from childhood to the present.". Even prior to 1974 you had had experiences that you had interpreted as being extraordinary, according to your website. Therefore, it would be natural for you to interpret subsequent unusual events through the filter that you had already developed.


He claims to have been raised in a household where the notion of aliens visiting Earth was simply accepted as reality. So the above connection you made between the faith and zeal of alien belief and religious belief is not without a solid foundation.
 
He claims to have been raised in a household where the notion of aliens visiting Earth was simply accepted as reality. So the above connection you made between the faith and zeal of alien belief and religious belief is not without a solid foundation.
Ah. I must've have missed that bit where ufology admitted to coming from a religious pro-alien family.

Do you see, ufology, there are countless people who will admit to have "never believed in god/been religious" until they have an experience that they can't explain. Sometimes, it's the timing in their lives, that leads them to a conclusion about the sighting/vision based on some sort of deity, sometimes it's just because they were (sub-consciously) seeking some sort of purpose around which to build their lives. Many reasons.

I'm not saying these circumstances apply to you necessarily, but one doesn't have to consider oneself to be of a religious nature to have a Pauline-like conversion on the road to Damascus Calgary.
 
It's amaziing to see how the skeptic's perception of human ability changes to suit their biases.


As GeeMack pointed out, this is a strawman argument. Nobody here ever argued that human ability changes with regard to UFOs. Your argument is based on conflating a single individual's perceptions with the cooperative ingenuity and hard work of entire societies of individuals.

There's a huge difference between the two, which also can serve to illustrate an important difference between real science and pseudoscience.


If it is about a UFO sighting, humans are frail fallible creatures with senses and brains so poor they can't count on them to recall anything accurately and are fooled easily into believing almost anything.


Human senses, cognition and especially memory are certainly fallible, especially where eyewitness accounts are concerned. Nowhere is this more evident than in the legal profession, which relies on eyewitness accounts by necessity on a daily basis. This lecture given to a body of Stanford law students by a psychologist and a legal professor, is a very good treatment of the subject.


When it suits their bias the other way, for example when addressing supporters of ancient astronaut theories, suddenly even really primitive people are these brilliant smart creatures with incredible minds that can figure out almost anything and are constantly underestimated.


When you talk about "really primitive people," you're in fact talking about modern humans, a.k.a. homo sapiens. Despite their lack of accumulated technology that we enjoy today, the ancients were regular people just like you and me. Their brains may have been somewhat differently developed as a result of living in very different types of environments, but we know by their writings and the artifacts they left behind that they possessed similar powers of abstract thinking, an equally strong curiosity about the Universe around them, and a desire for order and regularity in their lives, just as we do.

Though their reasoning skills lacked many of the scientific methods that we rely on today, the ancients were still pretty adept at figuring things out. They may not have possessed our modern building materials or the sophisticated math of today's structural engineers, but they had basic measurement skills, geometry, arithmetic. What they lacked in powered machinery, they made up for with human and animal muscle power augmented by basic tools like the inclined plane, the wheel, the lever, the screw, the pulley, etc. Considering the complexity of the things they built, that's enough information to adequately extrapolate how they might have done it without needing to assume the existence of supernatural or extraterrestrial involvement. In some cases, we even have historical accounts of the construction of early buildings, so we can extrapolate their methodology from that.


Now where all this ties into science, is that science is not an individual effort either. It's not just one dude (or a thousand dudes, for that matter) seeing something, taking notes on it and then declaring it to be the truth to anyone who'll listen.

Science is a concerted effort among a community of educated specialists across a wide range of fields who all have agreed to conduct their work according to a certain set of rules. These rules are universal to all sciences, and these rules define not only the collection, measurement, parsing, and organization of data, but also the forming of hypotheses, the design of experiments, the extrapolation of results, the publication of results, and the testing and verification of those results by independent researchers. Like the ancients who worked together in an organized fashion to achieve great goals, science benefits from concerted, organized cooperation.

But scientific cooperation is not self-reinforcing. It's very competitive, sometimes to the point of being adversarial. Scientists challenge one another constantly. Vigorous effort is applied to try and falsify claims, to expose faults and inconsistencies. That effort, a.k.a. "critical thinking," is applied at every step of the scientific method. Scientists question their own procedures and results just as critically as they question those of others. It's the same kind of thing we do here at the JREF; we constantly challenge one another to weed out faulty logic and unfounded assumptions. It's not easy, and sometimes people get butthurt about it, but the ability to withstand criticism, acknowledge one's own errors, and move forward are traits that earn respect from one's peers.

On the other hand pseudoscientists, like religious types, share a common belief in unproven ideas, and everything they do seeks to reinforce those ideas rather than challenge them. That's why they'll accept any anecdote at face value, no matter if there's zero objective evidence to support it, as long as it fits into their preconceived belief system. That's why pseudoscience, like religion, never makes any progress in its ability to make predictions about reality. It's based in avoidance of reality.
 
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When I first posted this answer, I made it perfectly clear that it was based on speculation for technology that we don't know is feasible yet. I also cautioned that it would be used outside that context as a criticism. So the criticisms you see from other posters here are made outside that context and are a misrepresentation of my initial post.

As for what physicists know about gravity, you can learn as much yourself in fairly short order because they don't really know that much. It is still an unexplained force of nature, and its properties ( how to relate to it mathematically ) are based on easy to understand ideas that are based on the quatities of mass in a given area of space and the distances from that mass.

The biggest differences in the theories are based on Newtonian vs General Relativity. In general relativity gravity is a result of the spatial geometry, so it's not that hard to imagine that if it were possible for an object to use some kind of device to affect the spatial dimensions around itself, that it could simply create a gravity well nearby for it to fall into, and by constantly projecting that gravity well ahead of itself, it would be drawn in that direction. Because such as system wouldn't actually be moving the air out of its way in a conventional sense, the conditions that create a conventional shock wave may never form.

Similarly, even if we use Newtonian physics, and some some kind of "garvitational force" generator were possible, a similar kind of compression and decompression between the air molecules could be made to take place that might negate the kind of compression wave required to form a sonic boom. After all in a gravitational field, atoms are bunched together closer near the source of gravity and spread farther apart in weak field or at a distance.

Anyway ... sure, take this to a real physicist and ask them to speculate on the validity of these ideas. Also don't forget to use your own mind. And here is a link to a former NASA engineer with some ideas on how a UFO propulsion system might work.

j.r.

What I meant was that I am not able to do the field equations to see if there is any situation where only a single object gets accelerated, and not everything near it too. Which inside the atmosphere would instead of silencing a sonic boom, cause a lot of extra noise. As well as strong gales etc. But thanks for the highschool physics refresher.
 
Oh dear.... that wasnt a highschool physics refresher, or much of any physics refresher. Pseudophysics refresher, yes, but to be fair he did claim it was just speculation. Its an unwanted diversion from the topic/s at hand, and serves no useful purpose.
 
You may not be religious but as you say on your website "The paranormal has been a part of my life-experience all the way from childhood to the present.". Even prior to 1974 you had had experiences that you had interpreted as being extraordinary, according to your website. Therefore, it would be natural for you to interpret subsequent unusual events through the filter that you had already developed.

Is this a fair comment?


It is a bit incomplete ... let me fill it in a bit. I grew up reading and learning more about science than UFOs. Not only was I learning science in school, I was given science books at home and I found it fascinating. Plus my dad was a geologist and a skeptic. He kept me in line when it came to the paranormal, and showed me how some of Von Danikens claims were probably the result of natural geological formations. I was also watching the space race unfold, which was real science. The idea that space travel was possible was being shown to me on live TV. National Geographic specials became a houshold ritual and years later I loved the Cosmos series with Sagan. I still love the science shows.

On the other side of the equation my first real book on UFOs was The Report On Unidentified Flying Objects, by Edward Ruppelt. If you are familiar with that, you know that he was the first head of Project Blue Book and presents a well balanced view based on official USAF reports. Plus my brother and his wife had seen a real UFO. I was used to watching the aircraft out near our airport and had been to a couple of air shows. What they described didn't fit the description of any aircraft and shouldn't have been able to do what they described.

I was also a star Trek kid. So for me it is true that given my upbringing, it was natural for me to accept that space travel was real and other civilizations could exist, and therefore UFOs could exist, and since USAF pilots had seen UFOs, and people I knew and trusted had also seen one, I just accepted they were real. But that didn't mean I was ( or am ) prone to simply jumping to unfounded coclusions. I know the difference between real science and science-fiction.

j.r.
 
...given my upbringing, it was natural for me to accept that space travel was real and other civilizations could exist, and therefore UFOs could exist, and since USAF pilots had seen UFOs, and people I knew and trusted had also seen one, I just accepted they were real. But that didn't mean I was ( or am ) prone to simply jumping to unfounded coclusions.


Your statements on these forums are adequate indicators of that.


I know the difference between real science and science-fiction.


I'm willing to believe you may think you do.
 
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Oh dear.... that wasnt a highschool physics refresher, or much of any physics refresher. Pseudophysics refresher, yes, but to be fair he did claim it was just speculation. Its an unwanted diversion from the topic/s at hand, and serves no useful purpose.


I was asked to speculate on a possibility and did so out of respect for the person who had asked.

j.r.
 
Hi again Ufology/j.r

Wow this thread is cracking along fast. I'd dearly love to be more involved, but just dont have the free time at mo.

Thanks for answering my ufo magnet Q. Someone who posts a lot, but not here at present, had some fair sounding stories early this year, and he/she subsequently said they were "a ufo magnet" and "wherever I go, ufo's and strange things seem to follow". I abandoned the thread at that point.

I wasnt previously aware that you have had a lot of "strange" experiences - was under the impression it was a one off. That was one of my first questions to you.
Now, you must be able to understand how that appears to me - it pushes my skepti-meter right up into the red danger zone(well - the username was a tip off too).
I have no prob believeing that some ppl see some phenomena that defy explanaton.
I had a relative who saw something pretty far out many years ago, I have no doubt many would call it a spaceship, but he never did. He didnt talk about it much, didnt know what to make of it, and certainly didnt want what he had seen widely known, for fear of ridicule. Just one of those "oh well" things, onwards with life. Who knows what it was, whatever it was or wasnt its not worth letting it rule yr life.
So yeah - some of those one off things I do believe, but not stories from random ppl.

Also - a comment you made - yes - there is a thread around (buried) where the regulars here relate their stories, which is interesting. Some were resolved in surprising ways, but from memory only one left it as "I have no idea what it was or could have been" type thing.

The analogy that has been made to religion is a very good one, and also a very powerful tool in demonstrating how ones beliefs can appear to others, and why others find ones beliefs and 'evidence' unbelievable and insufficient. I know you are not religious, and think this analogy is not a good one, and thats cool, but can I invite you to give me a few examples of some other thngs you dont beleve in - eg - ghosts, bigfoots, whatever you like, really, and we can try an exercise.

Back to your sighting.
The girl with you at the time... did she see it all, and what did she make of it?
Do you know if there were any installation type things in the general area? I mean substatons(power), relays(prob microwave phone relays given the date), ariels(transmit/receive), basically anything a charge could build up on, then discharge in an interesting way. Could explain repeated figure of 8's. Discharge racing around an antenna complex.
And the size of the glowing thing - was it big enough and bright enough (with its own light I presume) to be visible at 25km (ish ISH) max?
More to come, gotta do stupid jobs.
Ps - are u able to link to a google map, with maybe a mark or two denoting the basics. A map I can do stuff with, not that other little one u posted earlier.
cheers.
 
What I meant was that I am not able to do the field equations to see if there is any situation where only a single object gets accelerated, and not everything near it too. Which inside the atmosphere would instead of silencing a sonic boom, cause a lot of extra noise. As well as strong gales etc. But thanks for the highschool physics refresher.


You are correct. You can't do the equations and neither can I. It's all just speculation, but it's not that hard to visualize. I can visualize your bad outcome as well ... but that wouldn't make a great design would it? I was asked how it could be possible ... not the reverse.

j.r.
 
Your statements on these forums are adequate indicators of that.


The above is an unfounded proclaimation and has no weight.


You still haven't answered to the last huge collection of examples I provided as evidence of your vague, exaggerated or unprovable claims, over-reliance on confirmation rather than rigorous attempts at refutation, and general absence of systematic, rational processes for developing theories.

You also never acknowledged all the numerous glaring logical fallacies I pointed out in the "Critical Thinking in Ufology" thread before it got closed, either.

The vast majority of JREF forums members who've been following these threads will understand exactly what I'm talking about.

The only person who stands to benefit from my exhaustive efforts would be you, and you obviously don't give a shadow of a damn. So why should I continue wasting my own time retreading all these arguments and cataloging your numerous errors for you to ignore them?

Put in a little token effort yourself. Go back and reread the threads, and this time, maybe try paying attention to what the other people in the thread are telling you about the problems with your arguments.
 
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I was asked to speculate on a possibility and did so out of respect for the person who had asked.

j.r.
Ufology - yeah I know. My reply was to the person who asked, then thanked for the 'highschool physics refresher". I did acknowledge that you intended it as speculation only. However I do stand by that its not useful to the discussion, but it is your right to post, not mine. In my opinion it served no useful purpose, that is.
 
The statement above is a misrepresentation, see my post here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=7421334&postcount=487

for the non-fiction version.


Well that is conceptually like I said...

[...] and people I knew and trusted had also seen one, I just accepted they were real.

So you were brought up in a situation where people around you, people you knew and trusted believed in aliens, and consequently you just assumed they were real. Just exactly like the zeal and faith involved in religions. People who are convinced they've seen aliens, when dozens of common man made or natural explanations could just as easily apply, are already believers. Pretty much like nobody sees visions of the Virgin Mary if they're not already believers. It's faith. With aliens just like with religion. Only with religion there are honest ones who don't screw around telling tales hoping other people might believe in their nonsense, too. They admit it's faith and leave it at that.
 
Back to your sighting ...


Q. The girl with you at the time... did she see it all, and what did she make of it?
A. No, the two girls and I saw it the first time. One of them and I saw it the second time. But they had both dozed off for the last two sightings of the object. As for what they made of what we'd seen, they were as amazed as I was. But I had some background knowledge on UFOs and that's why I forced myself to stay awake all night.

Q. Do you know if there were any installation type things in the general area? I mean substatons(power), relays(prob microwave phone relays given the date), ariels(transmit/receive), basically anything a charge could build up on, then discharge in an interesting way. Could explain repeated figure of 8's. Discharge racing around an antenna complex.
A. Interesting approach. P. Klass ( UFO debunker ) had the same theory for UFOs and ultimately abandoned it because it couldn't be shown to be an adequate explanation. There weren't any lines at the height the object rose to. In the dawn, I would have been able to see the tower if there had been. Also no storms or electrical activity.

Q. Are u able to link to a google map, with maybe a mark or two denoting the basics
A. I'll probably put a more detailed account together using Google Earth to get more precise measurements when I get more time. I also think there is a post here somewhere with a mapped line of sight mark on it too already.

j.r.

NOTE: I've come up with theory that is probably as plausible as Klass' plasma discharge theory, but it would require science that I don't think we had back then. It could probably be done with technology we could build today though, and possibly explain some of the hard to resolve crop circle formations, particularly those that have suggested some sort of radiation exposure.
 
You are correct. You can't do the equations and neither can I. It's all just speculation, but it's not that hard to visualize. I can visualize your bad outcome as well ... but that wouldn't make a great design would it? I was asked how it could be possible ... not the reverse.


What you can imagine has no bearing on reality. If that was supposed to be connected to your claim that aliens exist, it fails. If not, it's unrelated to the topic.

But to bring everyone up to speed, you've admitted there are several possible mundane explanations for your alleged sighting, explanations which are equally or better supported than the notion that you saw aliens. And you've admitted that there is no objective evidence to support your alleged sighting. From a skeptical point of view, considering truth and reality, your argument has failed. And without objective support, it can't be resurrected.
 
Q. The girl with you at the time... did she see it all, and what did she make of it?
A. No, the two girls and I saw it the first time. One of them and I saw it the second time. But they had both dozed off for the last two sightings of the object. As for what they made of what we'd seen, they were as amazed as I was. But I had some background knowledge on UFOs and that's why I forced myself to stay awake all night.

Q. Do you know if there were any installation type things in the general area? I mean substatons(power), relays(prob microwave phone relays given the date), ariels(transmit/receive), basically anything a charge could build up on, then discharge in an interesting way. Could explain repeated figure of 8's. Discharge racing around an antenna complex.
A. Interesting approach. P. Klass ( UFO debunker ) had the same theory for UFOs and ultimately abandoned it because it couldn't be shown to be an adequate explanation. There weren't any lines at the height the object rose to. In the dawn, I would have been able to see the tower if there had been.

Q. Are u able to link to a google map, with maybe a mark or two denoting the basics
A. I'll probably put a more detailed account together using Google Earth to get more precise measurements when I get more time. I also think there is a post here somewhere with a mapped line of sight mark on it too already.

j.r.

NOTE: I've come up with theory that is probably as plausible as Klass' plasma discharge theory, but it would require science that I don't think we had back then. It could probably be done with technology we could build today though, and possibly explain some of the hard to resolve crop circle formations, particularly those that have suggested some sort of radiation exposure.


Nothing objective at all. Anecdote after anecdote. Your argument has failed. Your claim to have seen aliens can be rationally, reasonably dismissed as nonsense.

Oh, and crop circles now?
:dl:
 
As for what other people have seen, if they are religious, it would be natural for them to interpret such a sighting to some deity. I'm not religious though, so I simply see it as some kind of object that fails to conform to anything we know of ... therefore it is alien...

Surprisingly, you got this right. Well done.
 
My point was about discrepancy of the shape described and the shape drawn.
No it wasn’t, your point was about attempting to reinterpret the drawings as representing a blimp – which of course was a deliberate distortion of reality and a scurrilous attempt to obfuscate the evidence.

The witnesses described the object and included the phrase “circular like a coin or pancake” to distinguish it from other conceptualisations of circular, such as “circular like a cylinder” or “circular like a sphere”. It was an impressionistic statement and did not mean that the object was a perfect replica of either a coin or a pancake.

Now, having come to the realisation that your “drawings represent a blimp” obfuscation can no longer be maintained, you are now disingenuously attempting a further obfuscation by contending there is a discrepancy between the descriptor “coin” (or “pancake”) and what was drawn.

This is not the fair-minded, rational analysis of someone who wants to enlighten us as to the evidence or the facts in the case – or to advance the cause of knowledge about the case – rather it is simply, once again, a scurrilous, agenda driven attempt to “muddy the waters”, to make it difficult to discern fact from falsehood, to obfuscate

other readers (lurkers) will realise exactly why I didn't go to any more trouble than was necessary to make my point about how a draftsman would draw an unambiguous pancake/coin with a fin on it as opposed to an ambiguous blimp like outline with some rough shading on it.
Other readers will realise that the draftsman (for irrefutably that is what he was) drew two sophisticated representations of the object, including as much detail about the object as he could, in order that the viewer might understand what the object looked like and how it moved. Your sketches on outline do nothing to represent the object to the viewers – indeed it positively misrepresents the observed object – containing a flat top and bottom and having the vertical edge of the “fin” sloping the wrong way. Your drawings are a misrepresentation – in other words yet another attempt to obfuscate the evidence in the case.

I wasn't doing a replica of the drawing
We know what you were doing – attempting once again to obfuscate the evidence.

…done by the non drafts person.
That statement is a lie. The AFOSI report lists his occupation as a draftsman.

Then of course Ehocking points out
A second time.
So there was a typo in Dr Maccabee’s report and Mr B should have been Mr D in that instance. Who cares – The AFOSI report lists his occupation as a draftsman.

How could I?
Indeed, perhaps you could not.

it's so geometrically inaccurate
What does that mean? I have explained that the bottom of the object was not flat but curved, and that is clearly represented in the drawings - thus the bottom of the object is not represented by a “perfect” elipse in the first drawing. Only someone who did not understand how three dimensional objects can be represented on a two dimensional surface could make such a mistake – OR someone intent on an agenda driven obfuscation of the evidence.

…and franky I doubt if the artists parents would even stick it on their refrigerator.
Lovely. Your gratuitous ad hominem there merely represents another illegitimate and emotive attempt to obfuscate the evidence.

My point was about how a draftsman would draw a pancake/coin shape unambiguously. Which I succeeded in doing.
We know what your “point” (your motivation) was Stray Cat – and it certainly was not to clarify and enlighten.

Your inability to explain your methodology properly is the problem.
What “methodology”? It is a matter of principle. Either we can accurately determine the size of an object without depth cues (such as observations of an object made against the background of a clear blue sky) or we cannot. The well documented principles of perception inform us that without depth cues, we cannot accurately estimate size.

I simply don’t understand what you do not understand about that.

You have made determinations without supporting documentation even though you claim that there is.
The principles of perception are well documented and I informed you that a search of the term “principles of perception” will provide you a wealth of “documentation” on the subject. Clearly you have yet to take advantage of any of that documentation to expand your knowledge of the subject. May I suggest you actually do so before commenting again?

For instance, what evidence (in the form of documentation or experiments) do you have that supports the idea that estimates will be more accurate because:

"In that case there were multiple eyewitnesses and the object was moving toward, across and away from their fields of vision.”

“Two of the witnesses also utilised binoculars. We also know the power of those binoculars and the type of details that were able to be discerned (wrinkled, dirty skin for example). “

“they also has reference to the terrain surrounding them…”


So here is what I actually stated in context:
In that case there were multiple eyewitnesses and the object was moving toward, across and away from their fields of vision. Two of the witnesses also utilised binoculars. We also know the power of those binoculars and the type of details that were able to be discerned (wrinkled, dirty skin for example). (and) they also had reference to the terrain surrounding them…

All of those visual cues taken singly will not be able to provide a particularly reliable size estimate. However, when taken together they provide a better representation than any single factor could – especially considering they had reference to the surrounding terrain. Nevertheless the size of the object as reported by the witnesses ranged from 25 feet to 65 feet – it is also interesting to note that the witnesses aided by binoculars both estimated around 30 feet, while the witnesses unaided by binoculars estimated around double that.
That you have simply ignored my explanation does not surprise me in the least. The point of the explanation is to demonstrate that depth cues were available to the witnesses.

It is NOT possible to make accurate estimates of size/speed/distance of an UNKNOWN object in a clear blue sky. Backing up this statement are the following quotes from UFOlogists:
So on the one hand you say that I have not demonstrated my principles to be applicable or even true, yet you now quote “ufologists” (whatever that term may mean to you) to show that they are applicable and true…

…and yet is that not merely a fallacious “appeal to authority” – I have pointed you toward the scholarly and well documented articles that describe and delineate the principles of perception - and you simply quote some “ufologists” merely stating that those principles can apply? Since when have you begun to take “ufologist’s” word on anything?

If you have any documentation that states otherwise. You have yet to present it.
I was the one who proposed that the principles of perception could be used to assess the reliability of UFO reports. YOU were the one arguing that we could not …and NOW you want to imply that somehow the opposite was the case? Your disingenuousness is breathtaking.
 
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