FACTS are something that can not be denied and they require proof. Provide direct quotes from your sources of how to employ your methodology. You claim you have a methodology to determine the reliablity of a UFO report and the witnesses. However, I have yet to see you demonstrate that you can do this using real data.
If you keep misinterpreting/misrepresenting my claims then you will never understand them AstroP.
I claimed that the perceptual and cognitive factors that lead to misinterpretations are well documented and that we can use that knowledge to assess UFO reports for reliability.
I have provide two examples from real cases - Rogue River case size estimates and the Campeche/Mexican DoD psychological priming - to demonstrate how we can use the above mentioned factors to tease information out of those cases that indicate a truth about those cases that is not immediately obvious merely from reading the report.
In the Rogue River case we know that size estimates against a featureless background are not going to be able to be reliably made - as there are no depth cues. Accordingly we note that the various witnesses do report differing sizes. The first thing to note is that means when the witnesses reported the incident, collusion was likely not then a factor (otherwise they would have “got their story straight” before reporting the incident). In multiple eyewitness cases such as this where hoax has been claimed, this then is a point of evidence against the hoax hypothesis. The distance estimates also vary among the witnesses. Now one could say that the variance in distance and size estimates means that the witnesses are not reliable – however because we understand the perceptual factors involved we would
positively expect a variance in those estimates between witnesses if they were telling the truth – and we do indeed observe a variance as the perceptual factor predicts we should – the alternate, hoax, predicts that there would be no difference because they would have – as mentioned - got their story straight before reporting. That’s how it works AstroP.
In the Campeche incident we have an example of confirmation bias. The radar was telling them that UFOs were present, so of course unidentified lights seen outside the plane are going to be construed as confirmation of the radar. They had their UFOs. That’s how it works AstroP.
Then there is the margin for error, which you found so important in Kecksburg. What is your potential for error in making a mistake in your analysis of a reports reliability? Surely, a scientist would be able to determine how accurate such a methodology is. If you can't do this, then it is subjective and not objective. It is not a fact, it is your opinion. It allows for personal bias to affect the analysis.
If you have any objection to my assessments above, then you will be able to show by evidence or logical argument that they are somehow flawed.
As for Kecksburg, I merely noted that the calculated trajectory could have been in error in a number of ways that had not been accounted for by the people calculating that trajectory. Once those error factors are accounted for, the author’s could not possibly be certain that their particular trajectory was precisely accurate. They
should have stated that there was an error margin around that calculated trajectory – but of course they did not because those error margins were large enough to allow the “Kecksburg trajectory” to also be valid.
If you have an objection to that argument then I am sure you will be able to show by evidence or logical argument how it might be flawed or otherwise in error.
You pointed towards sources but have you really read them? Listing a bunch of books you googled on the web is not the same thing as researching it and providing relevant quotes
That is simply a false statement. I told you that the influential perceptual factors may be found listed in any psychology 101 textbook and that the cognitive heuristics and biases may be found by exploring the works of some particular authors who have published some seminal papers on the topic (namely Kahneman and Tversky). Such is common knowledge AstroP.
Feel free to present your actual source material (direct quotes and not just a listing of books) you claim that supports what you are stating. Otherwise, you appear to be just making it up as you go along.
Type in “
principles of perception” into your search engine and similarly type in “
heuristics and biases” – and you will find a wealth of information in what is listed as a result.
Once you have done that, you can present case examples of actual UFO events where you can demonstrate if a report is reliable or not. However, it can not be one of the cases you have already presented. Let's try some raw reports and then let you assess the reliability of the reporting witnesses and the report. If your methodology is as good as you claim, you should have no problem identifying the reports that are misperceptions and the ones that are real "UFOs" (aliens/objects unknown to science/whatever you want to call them).
I claim that there are UFO cases which simply defy mundane explanation – nothing more, nothing less.
I have already provided you some examples from real cases to demonstrate the principle behind my claims. I hardly think the principle behind my claims can be questioned. In each case however there will be a different set of factors at play and each case will of course have to be assessed on its own merits.
However, here is a case where UFO debunkers have had a go at using various perceptual and cognitive principles to claim a flock of birds was the answer:
Tremonton, Utah, UFO Colour Film (02 July 1952)
(
http://www.nicap.org/utahdir.htm)
Video including the 1950 Montana film
(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9kwsvnmwks&feature=channel_page)
See some of the debunker analysis here (
http://www.nicap.org/utah1.htm) for example where Hartmann uses the principle of the minimum resolution of the eye. Though he does not “quantify” that resolution – that is the principle nevertheless – and that is that while the eye may perceive an object, if the distance/size ratio is of a certain proportion then the resolution of the eye will miss the details – such as wings... and he did not have to “quantify” that principle or ratio for us to understand his argument. Others have suggested against that that the motion of the objects is too uniform for it to have been birds and that there are no irregularities of light and shadow on the objects as they travel - which there would have been if birds wheeling in flight was the answer… so while Hartmann’s argument is valid (as an argument from principle), it does not square with the facts of the case.