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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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So why don't you keep an open mind to the possibility there are errors in the data from these observations, which does happen (i.e. it is real that human beings make mistakes in observation and perception)? Isn't that more likely than "other realities we are not aware of"? It sounds like you are an advocate of "wishful thinking".
You repeat this argument that eyewitnesses can be mistaken so they are mistaken over and over – even when it has been pointed out to you many times that just because eyewitnesses can be mistaken, does not mean that they are mistaken.

Each case must be assessed on its own merits. The perceptual and cognitive factors that lead to misperceptions are well documented. We can examine each case to see if any of those factors might have played a role. If such factors are present that would indicate that the report is unreliable, then we call the case for precisely what it then is – unreliable and therefore possibly a case of misinterpretation. If however it is determined that those factors have not played a significant role (or indeed there are converging and independent lines of evidence) – then we can reasonably assess the descriptive characteristics of that case for what it might be showing us.

Quite simply, each case must be assessed on its own merits and we cannot therefore simply apply a blanket generalisation that just because it is possible for eyewitnesses to be in error, then therefore they are (or are likely to have been) in error in any specific case under examination.

Now if you think that is not a reasonable counter to your own argument, then of course you will be able to point out the reasons why you hold that belief. Merely ignoring that refutation of your own argument, to later repeat (and repeat and repeat) the same old line – as if it did not have a counterargument - is disingenuous.

Have you any reasons to reject my counter to your argument – or do you just maintain your rejection as a faith-based belief? In other words, can you demonstrate by evidence or logical argument that you are not simply indulging in “wishful thinking”?
 
You repeat this argument that eyewitnesses can be mistaken so they are mistaken over and over – even when it has been pointed out to you many times that just because eyewitnesses can be mistaken, does not mean that they are mistaken.

<snip>


No.

It's you, Rramjet, who is ignoring that to demonstrate that eyewitnesses can be mistaken is to demonstrate that they may or may not be mistaken in any given case and you have no way of knowing either way, without corroborating evidence.
 
You repeat this argument that eyewitnesses can be mistaken so they are mistaken over and over – even when it has been pointed out to you many times that just because eyewitnesses can be mistaken, does not mean that they are mistaken.

Witnesses make mistakes for various reasons. There is always the potential for error. This potential can not be quantified no matter how much you claim they can. Suggesting that it was impossible for a witness to be mistaken simply because you want it be so (i.e. you have no confirming evidence that suggests they were accurate) is the real pseudoscience here.
 
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Witnesses make mistakes for various reasons.
I agreed with you (at least by implication) – adding:
The perceptual and cognitive factors that lead to misperceptions are well documented.


There is always the potential for error.
Again, agreed – but I also added:
…just because eyewitnesses can be mistaken, does not mean that they are mistaken.


This potential can not be quantified no matter how much you claim they can.
I claimed:
We can examine each case to see if any of those factors might have played a role. If such factors are present that would indicate that the report is unreliable, then we call the case for precisely what it then is – unreliable and therefore possibly a case of misinterpretation. If however it is determined that those factors have not played a significant role (or indeed there are converging and independent lines of evidence) – then we can reasonably assess the descriptive characteristics of that case for what it might be showing us.
However, since you object, let me provide an example if you don’t believe me. A witness estimates the size of an observed object and duly reports that size. It is later determined (by further interview or from evidence in the case report itself) that the witness was actually observing the object against the background of a clear blue sky. The conclusion we must then come to, given the documented perceptual research, is that the size estimate is likely to be unreliable – and that therefore we cannot use the size as a basis to justify certain conclusions.

You say: “ This potential can not be quantified no matter how much you claim they can.” Yet I have just demonstrated by example how the process of assessing reliability in UFO reports can work when perceptual factors are properly accounted for. We can of course apply that same methodology to other perceptual and cognitive factors.

Suggesting that it was impossible for a witness to be mistaken is the real pseudoscience here.
I stated:
Quite simply, each case must be assessed on its own merits and we cannot therefore simply apply a blanket generalisation that just because it is possible for eyewitnesses to be in error, then therefore they are (or are likely to have been) in error in any specific case under examination.
…and
The perceptual and cognitive factors that lead to misperceptions are well documented.
Which of course puts the lie to your contention there AstroP.

I asked if you had any evidence or logical argument that would support my counter to your own argument that just because it is possible for eyewitnesses to be mistaken, therefore they are (or are likely to be) mistaken. So far you have not presented any. Can you?
 
You say: “ This potential can not be quantified no matter how much you claim they can.” Yet I have just demonstrated by example how the process of assessing reliability in UFO reports can work when perceptual factors are properly accounted for. We can of course apply that same methodology to other perceptual and cognitive factors.

You misunderstand. How can you quantify it? You just stated research states that such estimates are unreliable. How reliable/unreliable are they? 50%, 100%, 25%, 200%? That is what I mean by "quantified". The margin for error is unknown and you can't determine it because it changes with each person.

BTW, are you now stating that the estimates made of distance, size, speed at Rogue river are "unreliable" because they were made of an unknown object in a clear sky? If not, perhaps you can describe how you quantified their reliability using this documentation to support your claim.

Which of course puts the lie to your contention there AstroP.

You can keep calling me a liar but that kind of comment reflects more on you than me.

The perceptual and cognitive factors that lead to misperceptions are well documented.

You have yet to present these documents and how you use them to quantify and verify witness perception/misperception. You say it as if it were true but I have yet to see you demonstrate it in practice.
 
Because witness reports can be wrong, we need to establish the truth of their claims through other evidence in order to accept their claims (especially the extraordinary ones).

By merely showing that a witness report is not wrong because of some previously-understood methods by with a witness report is wrong does not show that it is correct, because there could be other, unknown or unimagined ways in which the witness report is wrong.

Eyewitness testimony is one of the poorest types of evidence. Our minds are so subject to bias, inattention, etc., etc., etc. How do you think people were talked into mistakenly remembering that their parents had raped them repeatedly in their youth?

Physical evidence, on the other hand, can be repeatedly examined by multiple independent observers, and when they come to a consensus, that leads to a stronger conclusion that eyewitness testimony.
 
Once again, according to the available evidence, nobody has seen an alien craft, so pointing out that I haven't seen one isn't much of an explanation for anything.

And flippance doesn't really do justice to the disdain I feel for the baseless assertions of people who insist that others take their flying saucer claims seriously.


Anyway, you appear to have overlooked the rest of my post.

You may as well address it now, because I'll just keep bringing it up until you do.


What you really mean to say is that according to the available evidence that you believe is reasonable to accept as true, nobody has seen an alien craft. Other than that, there is plenty of evidence.

As for what you think my capacity is for eliminating known natural and manmade objects by matching them to what I saw, you are simply wrong. You'd know that if you had seen it, but you didn't, yet you think you can somehow get inside my head and tell what how I arrived at my conclusion.

You presume far too much.

j.r.
 
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What you really mean to say is that according to the available evidence that you believe is reasonable to accept as true, nobody has seen an alien craft. Other than that, there is plenty of evidence.

As for what you think my capacity is for eliminating known natural and manmade objects by matching them to what I saw, you are simply wrong. You'd know that if you had seen it, but you didn't, yet you think you can somehow get inside my head and tell what how I arrived at my conclusion.

You presume far too much.

j.r.

But you are presuming your own omniscience!

Mr Aberhaten here is an actual Pharoah from Pi-Broadford, so I'd be careful who I was accusing of presumption if I was you...
 
What you really mean to say is that according to the available evidence that you'll believe, which short of getting yourself a ticket on a mother ship cruise, you will simply dismiss, nobody has seen an alien craft. Other than that, there is plenty of evidence.


Your dishonest misrepresentation of the skeptical position is, well, dishonest. It does bring back a question which was asked before but which was met with your abject ignorance. Do you not realize you're being dishonest?

As for what you think my capacity is for eliminating known natural and manmade objects by matching them to what I saw, you are simply wrong. You'd know that if you had seen it, but you didn't, yet you think you can somehow get inside my head and tell what how I arrived at my conclusion.


Well we do know that your arguments built upon dishonesty appear to know no bounds. Since we have no way of knowing if you're telling the truth, but have much evidence to suggest you may be lying, that in itself allows for skeptics to dismiss any anecdote you might offer.

But to go more directly to your implied claim to have the ability to imagine, consider, and eliminate every conceivable possible mundane explanation for your alleged sighting? It's completely ludicrous. You haven't even shown that you can imagine some common mundane possibilities for some of the anecdotes discussed in these threads. To claim your imaginative ability goes beyond "OMG... aliens!" would require an extreme stretch of your credibility. It just isn't there.

You presume far too much.


No. The evidence clearly supports the position that you don't have the ability to imagine, consider, and eliminate every conceivable possible mundane explanation for your alleged sighting.
 
What you really mean to say is that according to the available evidence that you believe is reasonable to accept as true, nobody has seen an alien craft. Other than that, there is plenty of evidence.


Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Got some?


As for what you think my capacity is for eliminating known natural and manmade objects by matching them to what I saw, you are simply wrong. You'd know that if you had seen it, but you didn't, yet you think you can somehow get inside my head and tell what how I arrived at my conclusion.


How many items are on your list of known natural and manmade objects?


You presume far too much.

j.r.


Right now I'm presuming that your list is short a few items.

We shall see.
 
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Extrardinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Got some?
How many items are on your list of known natural and manmade objects?

Right now I'm presuming that your list is short a few items.

We shall see.


Not sure Sagan would approve of the typo there in his quote. So you go from saying there is no evidence to only the evidence good enough is the evidence you know we don't have ... then you leap to the conclusion that all other evidence is worthless. I think we've been down this road enough times.

As for my list of natural and manmade objects, how about you find me one that can cover 25 kilometers in about 1 second from a dead stop, at an altitude of about 300 feet. Let me know when you come up with one. Oh yes and this was in 1974.

j.r.
 
...
As for my list of natural and manmade objects, how about you find me one that can cover 25 kilometers in about 1 second from a dead stop, at an altitude of about 300 feet. Let me know when you come up with one. Oh yes and this was in 1974.

j.r.

How did you measure the size and distance of this thing you saw?

I will assume for the moment that you just guessed (feel free to prove me wrong). What you might have seen is a smaller object which was closer to you than you guessed, in which case it didn't cover that huge distance in one second.


How did you rule out this possibility?
 
Not sure Sagan would approve of the typo there in his quote. So you go from saying there is no evidence to only the evidence good enough is the evidence you know we don't have ... then you leap to the conclusion that all other evidence is worthless. I think we've been down this road enough times.


Well he's dead, so I doubt he cares much. Fixed now anyway.

Now have a look at the syntax of your own second sentence above because I'm not going to risk an answer on it at the moment. I think there's a fallacy lurking in there.


As for my list of natural and manmade objects, how about you find me one that can cover 25 kilometers in about 1 second from a dead stop, at an altitude of about 300 feet. Let me know when you come up with one. Oh yes and this was in 1974.

j.r.


Is that all? Geeze Louise, I see those all the time. I have the same evidence as you too.

Imagine that!
 
What I'm talking about is, somebody asked you a valid question about a logical flaw in your methodology, and you respond with a one-two punch of faulty logic: a totally irrelevant (red herring) tall tale about a UFO, and a challenge to dismiss it (argument from incredulity).

That's what I find worthy of ridicule, your total irrationality. It's like trying to carry on an adult conversation with a 9-year-old.

I've tried to engage you on an intellectual level, I've tried being amicable, I've tried dispassionately addressing the logical problems with your arguments. It's not that you're incapable of understanding, it's that you don't care to. Your main interest is preserving your belief in this space alien goofiness, so I guess the only option left is ridicule.
 
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I asked if you had any evidence or logical argument that would support my counter to your own argument that just because it is possible for eyewitnesses to be mistaken, therefore they are (or are likely to be) mistaken. So far you have not presented any. Can you?
I can. If “aliens” were actually visiting us, they would have been detected by now with far better “instruments” than humans…

United States Space Surveillance Network
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Space_Surveillance_Network

Game. Set. Match.
 
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