2011 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

[lomiller]

lomiller, looking at those uiuc charts, the NW Passage seems to be almost open. I do not recall it being this close in prior years.

We were discussing the NWP being clear in late August in last year’s version of this thread but my recollection is that it took quite some time to get from conditions similar to what we see now to ice free conditions.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I usually check out the maps at Cryosphere Today (University of Illinois)
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Ice in Hudson Bay has been declining rapidly in the last week, The maps are not as far apart as you think. The one with more ice looks like it’s just a few days older.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=08&fy=2011&sm=07&sd=10&sy=2011
It’s harder to see in the lower resolution map, but there was a pretty big area of Hudson Bay that was “blue” (~20% ice coverage) just a few days ago and that does count as extent. What I suspect you will see is the melt slow now that Hudson Bay is nearly ice free, but there is still a big area of rapidly melting ice SW of Greenland. (This is what Hudson bay looked like on the larger map just a few days ago.)

The image was for July 12^th and so the daily figures. Besides MASIE's is multisensor so the source of that image is one of many inputs. So, no, not a few days older. I had to go back some 20 days to find similar images for Hudson Bay. I couldn't follow those images to a source in order to check how they were coloured. I wonder if the changes in data correction made this year are not playing some tricks. Until 2010 we were seeing some bumps in June 1^st and October 15^th because of adjustments made to compensate fresh water pools on floes and a general gliding effect on sensors coming from melting surfaces everywhere. The images you suggested might have no corrections at all, so they can show almost no ice in Hudson Bay and an opening NW passage. To confirm suspicions -not causes- here is the average temperature for 1^th to 9^th July

and we have a cold island in Hudson Bay. How could it be if not from abundant sea ice? Don't forget Foxe Basin has been five degrees warmer and images show it 20-40% full of ice.

By the way, that image shows little differences with 2007's and 2010's what is not a surprise when ice is melting. But what is new is the fragmented zone below 275 °K, or to put it right, the core zone around the pole and above 275 °K. That is consistent with a much more fragmented ice sheet when compared with previous years.

Help me to understand if there is some problem with the reanalysis tool or my use of it, as it astonished me knowing that some regions above latitude 45 -not even Spain or Montana is there- with average for 9 days above 300 °K. I suppose is some error in scaling or the system is giving highs or is biased some way. I suppose the colouring and the labeling don't match.

 

[aleCcowaN]

September Sea Ice Outlook: July Report by SEARCH at ARCUS site (Arctic Research Consortium of the United States)

New adjusted predictions with a median of 4.6 million square kilometers (including one "heuristic" -an Internet poll at Watts' cave with less imdb effect, I admit-, now reduced to 5.1 millions).

Interesting what stated by the heuristic forecast of Canadian Ice Service: "Since Arctic multi-year ice (MYI) did not experience free passage through Nares Strait throughout the winter of 2011 as it did in 2007 and 2010, a normal concentration of MYI currently exists in the Lincoln Sea area and north of Ellesmere Island at the beginning of July 2011. This factor may be just enough to prevent record-breaking minimum ice concentrations and extents in the Arctic Ocean in 2011". (They predict 4.7 ± 0.2)

 

[aleCcowaN]

First tweak: MASIE reduced their extent from 8,490,688.89 km² in July 12^th to 8,128,143.75 km² in July 13^th. They still have 370,000 km² in Hudson Bay, and the images don't match much better.

I'm now waiting for the other tweaks, most of them upwards, and finally those typical elbows in our favorite galloping horse showing a moderated trend from July 10^th on that we failed to see in previous images (It was always there, they'd swear)

 

[CapelDodger]

A couple of days ago, similar criticism got me the label of diehard malafide denier from one of the writers in one egregious site devoted to promote healthy skepticism and good information. I hope this won't repeat here, because those creatures matching that label will continue to be clueless may I critique or not, what begs the question of how many clueless creatures are this side of the border. Sad but true.

I greatly appreciate the Devil's Advocate effort you put in .

Knee-jerks crop up in any company, I'm afraid. Death to the pigeon-holers!

 

[CapelDodger]

Interesting what stated by the heuristic forecast of Canadian Ice Service: "Since Arctic multi-year ice (MYI) did not experience free passage through Nares Strait throughout the winter of 2011 as it did in 2007 and 2010, a normal concentration of MYI currently exists in the Lincoln Sea area and north of Ellesmere Island at the beginning of July 2011. This factor may be just enough to prevent record-breaking minimum ice concentrations and extents in the Arctic Ocean in 2011". (They predict 4.7 ± 0.2)

These guys must be worth listening to. That said, the use of "normal" is a bit problematic. Things have been changing too rapidly recently for "normal" to be applied, IMO.

 

[Trakar]

I greatly appreciate the Devil's Advocate effort you put in .

Knee-jerks crop up in any company, I'm afraid. Death to the pigeon-holers!

But my patella always spasms when there are delicious holey-pigeons to be had!

 

[BenBurch]

But my patella always spasms when there are delicious holey-pigeons to be had!

Oooh... Squab!

 

[Trakar]

Oooh... Squab!

With a spritz of citrus and a good mushroom sauce on a bed of wild rice!

(sorry for the slight diversion...back to the disappearing ice up north!)

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2011194.terra.4km.jpg

I like the modis images, clicked down to 1km pixels, it provides amazing views.
While I generally eschew blogs, this NASA ICESCAPE cruise/mission blog is definitely interesting: http://blogs.nasa.gov/cm/newui/blog/viewpostlist.jsp?blogname=icescape

 

[BenBurch]

I really hope we can re-state the ice cover upwards, because the slope of the extent line in the NSIDC chart is alarming right now.

 

[Mr Clingford]

Ijis is back up to date and this year is still parallel inside 2007.

 

[aleCcowaN]

MASIE is now converging and they show 7.9 million square kilometres for day 14^th, IJIS 7.5 million and our favourite figure 7.6 million. But maps show either an ice-free or a 270,000 km2 ice-covered Hudson Bay.

I'm sure the Bay is to blame in the end. (Where's The Spirit of Saint Louis when we need it to go and take a look? I know ... the Smithsonian ... those darn bureaucrats!)

Knee-jerks crop up in any company, I'm afraid. Death to the pigeon-holers!

But my patella always spasms when there are delicious holey-pigeons to be had!

Oooh... Squab!

With a spritz of citrus and a good mushroom sauce on a bed of wild rice!

Thanks all of you for that. It kept me a while in a bilingual dictionary but it was worth to learn some new vocabulary in a witty way.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Hudson Bay according to the Meteorological Service of Canada (for Hudson Bay divisions, this map) ice coverage on July 15^th 2011

James Bay (southern half) : Open water
James Bay (northern half) : Open water
Belcher (southern half) : Open water except 1 tenth of first-year ice in the western section.
Belcher (northern half) : Open water
South Hudson (eastern half): Ice pressure warning in effect. Open water within 25 miles of the shore except 6 tenths of first-year
ice elsewhere. Strong ice pressure developing in the pack ice this
evening and persisting on Saturday.
South Hudson (western half): Ice pressure warning in effect. Open water within 25 miles of the shore except 6 tenths of first-year
ice elsewhere. Strong ice pressure developing in the pack ice this
evening and persisting on Saturday.
York (eastern half) : Open water within 30 miles of the coast except 4 tenths of first-year ice elsewhere.
York (western half) : Open water except patches of 2 tenths of first-year ice in the extreme eastern section.
South-central Hudson (eastern half): 4 tenths of first-year ice.
South-central Hudson (western half): 4 tenths of first-year ice.
Churchill (eastern) : Open water
Churchill (western) : Open water
Arviat (eastern) : Open water
Arviat (western) : Open water
Central (eastern) :Open water in the northern section except 4 tenths of first-year ice elsewhere.
Central (western) : Open water except patches of 2 tenths of first-year ice in the eastern section.
Puvirnituq (southern half): Open water within 30 miles of the coast except 3 tenths of first-year ice elsewhere.
Puvirnituq (northern half): 2 tenths of first-year ice except 7 tenths of first-year ice in the eastern section.
Coats (southern ice): 4 tenths of first-year ice.
Coats (northern half): Open water.
Rankin (southern half): Open water.
Rankin (northern half): Open water.
Roes Welcome (southern half): Not available until further request
Roes Welcome (northern half): Not available until further request
Baker: no forecast on ice

Who do you think is right? MASIE with their 270,000 Km² of sea ice yesterday matching approximately what the forecast describes today? Or the satellite derived images others provide with an ice-free Hudson Bay (or just a few thousands of square kilometers of ice)?

 

[Trakar]

...Thanks all of you for that. It kept me a while in a bilingual dictionary but it was worth to learn some new vocabulary in a witty way.

Apologies for the distraction,...I just enjoy food, and often forget to eat until its brought to my attention by colleagues and friends who notice that my discussions all start revolving around menu items...

Bilingual dictionary, witty, sounds like the tools of a cunning linguist, ...oops, different distraction!



So, If I'm understanding things correctly, part of the reason (mechanically speaking) that the 2007 ice levels dropped so low (aside from background warming issues) is that areas like the Fram and Nares Straits were cleared of blocking ices and the chunks and flotsam of smaller floes were free to be flushed out of the greater arctic basin.

Have I got this even approximately right?

If so, then despite the rather delayed thaw this year, we could be looking at a record or near record year given the current levels and trends and the fact that at least the Fram Strait seems to be open and flowing with floes of rotten ice.

 

[BenBurch]

2007 also had wind aggregating ice, hence creating more open water.

 

[aleCcowaN]

So, If I'm understanding things correctly, part of the reason (mechanically speaking) that the 2007 ice levels dropped so low (aside from background warming issues) is that areas like the Fram and Nares Straits were cleared of blocking ices and the chunks and flotsam of smaller floes were free to be flushed out of the greater arctic basin.

Have I got this even approximately right?

The Canadian Ice Service was talking about MYI not passing through Nares during last Winter, thus there's a good stock of it allegedly preventing a record melting. Compared to 2007 we are not having now any extraordinary development in the Atlantic nor strong winds are expected in East Siberian Sea and neighbouring seas. The main reason ice volume is dropping and hence ice extent are higher Arctic temperatures during Winter: extent recovers but thickness not -ice is a very good insulation-. These graphics may show you what I mean. My prediction was 4.55 million square kilometres and I see no reason yet to change it. The risk is we are entering a volatile time, but I trust we have enough MYI yet tampo... preventing any sudden melting. I'm pretty sure in a few years Arctic sea ice will be gone during September, but a system so self-regulated and complex surely will have a narrow chaotic transition, so I'm expecting the Northern Lights to perform a show but on the surface in a dramatic fashion during a El Niño event, El Travesti, El Cthulhu or whatever. But Nature's PR agents are dormant now and I don't expect any other record than minimum volume and minimum MYI kept. The show will start when the amount of MYI is negligible and a warm Northern Winter should be followed by an abnormal Northern Summer. The secret is hidden in R'lyeh, you know .

 

[George 152]

If you really want you can go on a tour through the North West Passage.
See http://www.gonomad.com/tours/0612/northwestpassage.html

 

[Trakar]

The Canadian Ice Service was talking about MYI not passing through Nares during last Winter, thus there's a good stock of it allegedly preventing a record melting. Compared to 2007 we are not having now any extraordinary development in the Atlantic nor strong winds are expected in East Siberian Sea and neighbouring seas. The main reason ice volume is dropping and hence ice extent are higher Arctic temperatures during Winter: extent recovers but thickness not -ice is a very good insulation-. These graphics may show you what I mean. My prediction was 4.55 million square kilometres and I see no reason yet to change it. The risk is we are entering a volatile time, but I trust we have enough MYI yet tampo... preventing any sudden melting. I'm pretty sure in a few years Arctic sea ice will be gone during September, but a system so self-regulated and complex surely will have a narrow chaotic transition, so I'm expecting the Northern Lights to perform a show but on the surface in a dramatic fashion during a El Niño event, El Travesti, El Cthulhu or whatever. But Nature's PR agents are dormant now and I don't expect any other record than minimum volume and minimum MYI kept. The show will start when the amount of MYI is negligible and a warm Northern Winter should be followed by an abnormal Northern Summer. The secret is hidden in R'lyeh, you know .

LOL, or "Relex" as we of the hidden hordes are wont to refer to the home of our submerged emerald walls!

Regardless, I understand the warmer winters, in much the same manner as the warmer nights, what I am more curious about are the physical/mechanical processes and situations that result in the reduced ice states. Someday we might explore the micro-scale thermodynamic issues of melting "rotten" ice versus melting MYI floes, but right now I'm really just trying to grasp how important issues like arctic basin flushing due to wind and currents are in their potential impact on creating an ice-free Arctic Sea.

I apologize for forcing you to english, especially my version of english which even my friends and colleagues have trouble with, but I assure you my Spanish and Portugese are much, much worse, and unless you are more comfortable with Latin, Algonquian or Lakotan,...we are stuck with English, bear with me and I will strive for more clear communications,...in future exchanges.

Your fluency is impressive, I just keep forgetting that you aren't a native english speaker!

 

[Trakar]

If you really want you can go on a tour through the North West Passage.
See http://www.gonomad.com/tours/0612/northwestpassage.html

Thank-you for the link!
I have been thinking about an arctic visit for a while now, and may try to set up a trip through the NW passage next summer, it'd be a nice chance to write a few personal perspective articles and pieces (tax write-off for a vacation).

 

[aleCcowaN]

... what I am more curious about are the physical/mechanical processes and situations that result in the reduced ice states. Someday we might explore the micro-scale thermodynamic issues of melting "rotten" ice versus melting MYI floes, but right now I'm really just trying to grasp how important issues like arctic basin flushing due to wind and currents are in their potential impact on creating an ice-free Arctic Sea.

I think they're considering MYI as evidence of ice stocks. I also think that all of that rotten ice and melting MYI and all of it rushing through straits may be epistemologically equivalent to our moms saying "don't scratch it, or it won't heal". I'm afraid so, then I won't ask. I think some forecasts are made by opening the window and waving an arm outside after having moistened a finger with saliva ... probably the middle one.

About winds, I gonna track pressures and post here any recent development.

I apologize for forcing you to english, especially my version of english which even my friends and colleagues have trouble with, ...

I'm here to practise my English, so don't hold back. About comprehension I score the same in beginner tests or highly formal. Most ideas are already in my mind. I only need to find the labels to them. Grammar is beyond my abilities so, why I would care?