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Sagan’s “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” is nonsense. Here’s why

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I replied that it would depend on whether the implications of the claim mattered to me or not - and that if they did, then I would require the same high standard of evidence no matter what claim the stranger made ("I went to the store" or "I was abducted by aliens") – I really don’t see how you could have missed the concluding statement “ then certainly I would require the same high standard of evidence for both (claims).”…

Rramjet, I don't believe that you can show that your standard of evidence above is reasonable. What would convince a reasonable person would be if you could define both (1) the general types, amounts, and relative reliability of evidence that would suffice to reasonably believe both stories (going to the store, being abducted by aliens) as well as (2) representative specifics? Such as:

General type, amount, reliability:
A. One photo, looks real enough, could have been photoshopped
B. Eyewitness corroboration by one reasonably trustworthy person

Representative specifics:

The stranger shows a picture of him at the store. A widely respected judge is in the photo and vouches for the stranger being at the store.

The stranger shows a picture of him being led away by beings with big eyes and grey heads. A widely respected judge is also in the photo (or not, if that's your preference) and vouches for the stranger being led away by these beings.

if this is not a good example, please offer another one. If it is, I would believe the stranger's going to the store story, but not (yet) his abducted by aliens story. Would you?
 
Rramjet, I don't believe that you can show that your standard of evidence above is reasonable. What would convince a reasonable person would be if you could define both (1) the general types, amounts, and relative reliability of evidence that would suffice to reasonably believe both stories (going to the store, being abducted by aliens) as well as (2) representative specifics? Such as:

General type, amount, reliability:
A. One photo, looks real enough, could have been photoshopped
B. Eyewitness corroboration by one reasonably trustworthy person

Representative specifics:

The stranger shows a picture of him at the store. A widely respected judge is in the photo and vouches for the stranger being at the store.

The stranger shows a picture of him being led away by beings with big eyes and grey heads. A widely respected judge is also in the photo (or not, if that's your preference) and vouches for the stranger being led away by these beings.

if this is not a good example, please offer another one. If it is, I would believe the stranger's going to the store story, but not (yet) his abducted by aliens story. Would you?

You have simply shifted the standard of evidence on the judge. In “I went to the store” you accept his credibility, whereas in “I was abducted by aliens” you simply don’t accept his credibility.

What basis have you for shifting the standard of evidence in that way? You seem to be saying that you only trust the credibility of the judge in some contexts, but not others – that he is telling the truth in one context, but lying in the other…

So why do you believe the “widely respected” judge in one context but not the other?
 
Going to the store is normal. A huge majority of people do that. It's expected that most people go to a store sometimes

There is no evidence that anyone has ever been abducted by aliens. There isn't any evidence that aliens can abduct people. There is not even any evidence that there are aliens.
 
Going to the store is normal. A huge majority of people do that. It's expected that most people go to a store sometimes

There is no evidence that anyone has ever been abducted by aliens. There isn't any evidence that aliens can abduct people. There is not even any evidence that there are aliens.

There is no proof that anyone has ever been abducted by aliens. There isn't any proof that aliens can abduct people. There is not even any proof that there are aliens.

Not that I'm arguing that there are aliens, even if it suits your purpose to insist I am. I'm merely pointing out the most common cause of an extraordinary failure to find agreement here - the confusion between 'evidence' and 'proof'.
 
There is no proof that anyone has ever been abducted by aliens. There isn't any proof that aliens can abduct people. There is not even any proof that there are aliens.

Not that I'm arguing that there are aliens, even if it suits your purpose to insist I am. I'm merely pointing out the most common cause of an extraordinary failure to find agreement here - the confusion between 'evidence' and 'proof'.

Mathematicians prove things. I prove identities in Trigonometry. Science doesn't prove anything.

EDIT: Science gathers evidence and makes the best matched conclusion. If there is no evidence in favor of a claim, then the conclusion is that the claim is false. There is no evidence in favor of alien of abductions. Alien abductions are false until evidence shows the opposite.
 
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I have a question. At what point do a board members go from legitimate poster to full blown troll? I'm not implying anything about any specific member, I'm just curious as to whether rules about it exist on the site, or if mods eventually step in at some point. I know every message board site has its own rules and operating procedures, so I was curious as to how discussions like this fit into them on here.
 
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You have simply shifted the standard of evidence on the judge. In “I went to the store” you accept his credibility, whereas in “I was abducted by aliens” you simply don’t accept his credibility.

What basis have you for shifting the standard of evidence in that way? You seem to be saying that you only trust the credibility of the judge in some contexts, but not others – that he is telling the truth in one context, but lying in the other…

So why do you believe the “widely respected” judge in one context but not the other?

Rramjet, thank you for your substantive response, I hope we are both moving the can further down the road. Allow me another good kick at it:

Background knowledge is the crucial difference that lets us readily accept the judge's word in the one scenario but far less so the other. To spell it out: We know stores exist but we don't know that aliens exist.

In your terms, I suppose we can consider that the evidentiary bar for the store and for the alien stories are equally high: but what you're failing to understand is that the work of getting over the bar is aided greatly by the background knowledge that stores exist. We're very near the bar already before the stranger even says a word. We don't have to do the heavy lifting of proving that stores exist - we already know it. But we don't know aliens already exist (at least not anywhere near the surety with which we know stores exist). That's why we need more for the alien story than for the store story - there's more to demonstrate because we already know stores exist.
 
It's even more extraordinary when you consider that the bulk of those pages is made up of insanely long screeds by just one poster saying "I don't like ECREE" over and over again.

That's why I asked about the board's policy on people who could be viewed as (and I'm not saying anyone is) or deemed ultimately to be a troll.
 
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Going to the store is normal. A huge majority of people do that. It's expected that most people go to a store sometimes


[Rramjet]

LOL So now the existence of stores is decided by a popular vote, is it?​
[/Rramjet]


There is no evidence that anyone has ever been abducted by aliens. There isn't any evidence that aliens can abduct people. There is not even any evidence that there are aliens.


But there's a whole thread full of evidence for aliens right in this very sub-forum.

Never mind. I checked, and apparently it's just a joke thread title. There's no actual evidence after all.
 
So Rramjet might consider the situation in these terms: the amount, quality, etc. of evidence needed to believe that the stranger was abducted by aliens is far beyond that needed to believe that the stranger needed the store if the background knowledge of the store story (stores exist, people regularly go to them) is not counted (because it's very deep background knowledge).

Perhaps this is a way in which Rramjet's view and the view of ECREE supporters might be reconciled.
 
That's why I asked about the board's policy on people who could be viewed as (and I'm not saying anyone is) or deemed ultimately a troll.


There's no rule against trolling, no matter how sustained and obvious it is, largely because of the difficulty of defining what constitutes trolling.

As it happens, I'd be willing to bet that I myself, a veritable paragon of on-topicness, have been reported on more than one occasion in this very thread by a certain flying saucer proponent for trollery most foul, but the show goes on.

As another example of the extremes to which a completely fact- and substance-free premise can be taken, consider that the Evidence for why we know the New Testament writers told the truth. - Part 1 thread in HL&A went to 504 pages without the presentation by the OP of a single piece of evidence.

The thing is though, both that thread and this have served a great educational purpose, whatever their original intent. And apart from the many sidebar issues that have been raised here, at the end of the day the big winner is ECREE itself, for as a wise man some clown once said:



What I really like is that thanks to Mr Rramjet we no longer need to use the full phrase. The acronym ECREE has entered the lexicon big-time, and the simplicity, symmetry and economy of Mr Sagan's words have thus been greatly enhanced.

Yay for Mr Rramjet! (the hero of our nation)
 
Rramjet, thank you for your substantive response, I hope we are both moving the can further down the road. Allow me another good kick at it:

Background knowledge is the crucial difference that lets us readily accept the judge's word in the one scenario but far less so the other. To spell it out: We know stores exist but we don't know that aliens exist.

In your terms, I suppose we can consider that the evidentiary bar for the store and for the alien stories are equally high: but what you're failing to understand is that the work of getting over the bar is aided greatly by the background knowledge that stores exist. We're very near the bar already before the stranger even says a word. We don't have to do the heavy lifting of proving that stores exist - we already know it. But we don't know aliens already exist (at least not anywhere near the surety with which we know stores exist). That's why we need more for the alien story than for the store story - there's more to demonstrate because we already know stores exist.
We were talking about the evidence for the claims “I went to the store” and “I was abducted by aliens”. You have shifted the debate to talking about evidence for the claims “Stores exist” and “ET exists”. In that context:

The evidence for a store is the physical evidence that they exist. You can touch them. You can physically walk into them and interact with them.

We don’t have that evidence for ET. However, if we did, it would be precisely the same standard of evidence that we have for the store. In both cases it would be physical evidence.

Getting back to the original claims, we can see that for the first claim (I went to the store) we don’t need the evidence for the store itself – because we already accept that evidence exists – so all we need do is assess whether the judge has the credibility to stand as a witness we can believe.

When it comes to the second claim (I was abducted by aliens) we do need evidence for the alien itself – evidence we don’t have – but if we did we would accept the same level of evidence as we did (do) for the store – that is physical evidence – but has anything changed about our assessment of the credibility of the judge?

Surely our assessment of the credibility of the judge is not dependent on context…? Either we assess the judge to be able to tell us the truth in all circumstances or we do not. Surely we cannot “pick and choose” the judge’s credibility based merely on our own belief systems. Surely it is illegitimate to say “I don’t believe that claim, so the judge must be lying”? Perhaps you can say (as you do) that the judge must be lying because we don’t have evidence for aliens - I would contend that is illegitimate, but that is a separate argument…

The whole point is that our belief in either claim is predicated on sufficient evidence either way. There is nothing extraordinary about the nature of that evidence. The evidence we would accept for both the store and the alien is physical evidence (nothing extraordinary about that) and the credibility of the judge will be based on other types of evidence (not extraordinary either).

So it becomes legitimate to ask, why you might want “extraordinary evidence” for a belief in one claim and not the other, when clearly we can arrive at a belief in either claim without resorting to extraordinary evidence.
 
We were talking about the evidence for the claims “I went to the store” and “I was abducted by aliens”. You have shifted the debate to talking about evidence for the claims “Stores exist” and “ET exists”. In that context:

The evidence for a store is the physical evidence that they exist. You can touch them. You can physically walk into them and interact with them.

We don’t have that evidence for ET. However, if we did, it would be precisely the same standard of evidence that we have for the store. In both cases it would be physical evidence.

Getting back to the original claims, we can see that for the first claim (I went to the store) we don’t need the evidence for the store itself – because we already accept that evidence exists – so all we need do is assess whether the judge has the credibility to stand as a witness we can believe.

When it comes to the second claim (I was abducted by aliens) we do need evidence for the alien itself – evidence we don’t have – but if we did we would accept the same level of evidence as we did (do) for the store – that is physical evidence – but has anything changed about our assessment of the credibility of the judge?

Surely our assessment of the credibility of the judge is not dependent on context…? Either we assess the judge to be able to tell us the truth in all circumstances or we do not. Surely we cannot “pick and choose” the judge’s credibility based merely on our own belief systems. Surely it is illegitimate to say “I don’t believe that claim, so the judge must be lying”? Perhaps you can say (as you do) that the judge must be lying because we don’t have evidence for aliens - I would contend that is illegitimate, but that is a separate argument…

The whole point is that our belief in either claim is predicated on sufficient evidence either way. There is nothing extraordinary about the nature of that evidence. The evidence we would accept for both the store and the alien is physical evidence (nothing extraordinary about that) and the credibility of the judge will be based on other types of evidence (not extraordinary either).

So it becomes legitimate to ask, why you might want “extraordinary evidence” for a belief in one claim and not the other, when clearly we can arrive at a belief in either claim without resorting to extraordinary evidence.

Huh?

Nothing you said addresses the issue of background knowledge and how it helps us get up to the bar (almost without us knowing it), which my post was founded on. Why ignore what I post?
 
So Rramjet might consider the situation in these terms: the amount, quality, etc. of evidence needed to believe that the stranger was abducted by aliens is far beyond that needed to believe that the stranger needed the store if the background knowledge of the store story (stores exist, people regularly go to them) is not counted (because it's very deep background knowledge).

Perhaps this is a way in which Rramjet's view and the view of ECREE supporters might be reconciled.

Rramjet, if you have an ounce of conscience that operates purely inside your self - your own inner voice - then listen:

In the above I gave you (and I) a way out - a way to resolve this issue that does not prove anyone wrong, and yet is not intellectually dishonest on either of our original sides.

Can you try to find your way to honestly - within your own private conscience - agree?

Do you want to try?
 
Rramjet, if you have an ounce of conscience that operates purely inside your self - your own inner voice - then listen:

In the above I gave you (and I) a way out - a way to resolve this issue that does not prove anyone wrong, and yet is not intellectually dishonest on either of our original sides.

Can you try to find your way to honestly - within your own private conscience - agree?

Do you want to try?


Wall o' Waffle™ explaining why your question has no meaning in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .
 
So to adjust the test case a little:
case 1 - my friend says he went to the store
case 2 - my friend claims to have made water flow uphill, solved world hunger, developed a cure for cancer, won the Nobel prize 26 times this year and brought peace to the Middle East in 5 minutes and persuaded all of Scientology that Ron Hubbard was a liar.

You say both of these require the same level of evidence or not?
 
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