Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Kevin_Lowe]

So you think I'm basing my opininons on Google and a library card?

Sorry, gotta go and do an actual post mortem now, 'cos that's (part of) what they pay me for.

Rolfe.

That said, I think Google and a library card (combined with basic scientific and statistical literacy) have been unfairly maligned.

When it comes to relatively simple problems like whether it's possible for a normal, healthy young woman who has a meal of pizza around 6pm to have 500mL of food in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum at 11:30pm you can get to exactly the right answer using nothing more than Google and access to the on-line scientific literature.

"Google and a library card" was an ad hominem attack meme made up by guilters to try to discredit the TOD argument on the implied basis that we couldn't possibly have demolished their entire case with such simple tools. The fact that lionking is still repeating it even after Rolfe has confirmed that we were exactly right is... well, actually it's totally predictable.

 

[theRealBob]

From TJFMK's musings on the Massei musings

Massei cites compelling evidence of recent sexual activity having the characteristics of non-cooperation on the part of the female participant. Non-spermatic biological material belonging to Rudy Guede was discovered during the course of a gynecological examination of the corpse. This, in conjunction with a distinct pattern of abrasions, was interpreted by the court as being strong evidence of sexual violence.[157-158]

What kind of logic links this to a female student flatmate ?????????

 

[Rolfe]

That said, I think Google and a library card (combined with basic scientific and statistical literacy) have been unfairly maligned.

When it comes to relatively simple problems like whether it's possible for a normal, healthy young woman who has a meal of pizza around 6pm to have 500mL of food in her stomach and nothing in her duodenum at 11:30pm you can get to exactly the right answer using nothing more than Google and access to the on-line scientific literature.

"Google and a library card" was an ad hominem attack meme made up by guilters to try to discredit the TOD argument on the implied basis that we couldn't possibly have demolished their entire case with such simple tools. The fact that lionking is still repeating it even after Rolfe has confirmed that we were exactly right is... well, actually it's totally predictable.

That's actually perfectly true. And in fact I do use the internet quite a lot to find good references for information I need. (Last week a client phoned me and asked whether it was Eimeria zuernii, wihch we had identified in one of her patients, that was the coccidian which had been shown to persist on pasture over-winter. While she was still on the phone, I tracked down a pdf of a recent publication covering up-to-date research on all aspects of coccidiosis, and was able to answer her question. No, the one she was thinking of was Eimeria alabamensis.)

None of us has a library to match the internet. What we do have, in addition to extra resources through institutional subscriptions and so on, is the know-how to hunt down the relevant references, and to sift the credible from the dross.

But honestly, this stomach transit time in Homo sapiens thing is so bloody elementary, the references were only confirming basic knowledge. And anyone with a bit of intelligence and an internet connection should be able to figure it out. As people obviously did, and all credit to them.

Rolfe.

 

[zeb]

I looked it up for you here.

I guess Sherlock wants us to believe the two and half hour prolonged torture session with a scream at the end that is based on no evidence. Other than that it is the "no one can know anything if they weren't there".

Sherlock, why don't you just try and convince us that the sky is green? It would probably be less boring.

 

[Danceme]

He also seems genuinely puzzled by the washing machine business, but since that never took place it's no wonder.

I think he misunderstood what clothes his friend was talking about and he thought it meant the actual clothes she had been wearing that evening, not that she had a load of completely different clothes in the washer. I think he was genuinely confused by this because of course he knew exactly where Merdith's clothes were.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Also, Rolfe it might amuse you to know that back in 2009 Stilicho was happily arguing that the JREF forumites must all be wrong because you personally had not weighed in on the autopsy evidence.

Link, search for "Rolfe".

"When someone of that stature avoids the thread then I know something is terribly wrong".

Oh well. So much for that argument. I wonder if Stilicho's professed respect for your professional opinion actually extends to respecting it? As opposed to ignoring it completely when it conflicts with his pre-existing views, I mean, which is what he currently seems to be doing.

 

[Danceme]

To add: According to one of the prominent pro-guilt commentators who seems to have a hotline to Vogt and Latza Nadeau (which are interesting links in themselves...), the latter "journalist" apparently seems certain that the "hair" was lost by the forensics team. This must have occurred prior to any testing, since even if the hair had been lost after it had been matched (or not matched) to Knox, this information would have been of use to the court.

So, if Latza Nadeau is correct, then we can chalk up yet another example of world-class procedure from the "crack" forensics team in this case. It clearly can't be used as evidence in this case if it was lost before testing: even if it could be visually identified as a long human hair, it could belong to many other people besides Knox - including first responders or members of the forensics team themselves. What a fiasco.

Wow, it was a little disconcerting to see Meredith's lifeless hand with the blond hair in it. Barbie was right after all when she wrote of that in her book, unlike what we have been told over and over, that it was a kinky black hair.
Why were we led to believe it was a black man's hair by Charlie and Bruce, the only ones who had access to those kind of pictures?

Eta: current pmf thread, pictures posted by Jools June 21, 3:15pm and 6:11pm.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

I don't recall that

Why were we led to believe it was a black man's hair by Charlie and Bruce, the only ones who had access to those kind of pictures?

Eta: current pmf thread, pictures posted by Jools June 21, 3:15pm and 6:11pm.

Danceme,

I don't recall Charlie's ever discussing the hair. Are you sure?

 

[Chris_Halkides]

static about low template DNA analysis

LondonJohn,

RoseMontague found a good quote with respect to low copy number (LCN) DNA profiling. “’LCN is not just about turning up the dial in the DNA lab, or about a tweak to the DNA system,’ says Bedford, ‘it is a reworking of the the whole process.’”

Mark Waterbury wrote, “LCN work fundamentally changes the nature of the entire system, not just the lab work—but throughout the process of collection, handling, processing, and interpretation of results.” (Monster of Perugia, p, 96, highlighting mine). Elsewhere (p. 157) he discussed how static charges and Van der Waals attractive forces can make small particles transfer from one object to another and stick to the latter object. The number of cells that would need to be transferred by such mechanisms is very small, about ten or so. Do the problems of contamination and secondary transfer plague the work done in the low template range to a greater degree than standard DNA profiling? The requirement for positive pressure air hoods, UV lighting, and other measures in the Crown Forensic Service’s guidelines would suggest that contamination is more prevalent when the amount of DNA is very low. If the particulate travels described by Dr. Waterbury get worse with smaller particles (perhaps on the basis of greater surface-to-volume ratios assuming identical shapes), then this would be one explanation for the need for greater precautions when performing true LCN.

The collection and handling of the knife all happened prior to Dr. Stefanoni’s audible (American football term), her decision to work in the low template range by a new procedure. I would argue that aspects of its handling were not exemplary even if one were only doing standard DNA profiling.

 

[Kaosium]

Wow, it was a little disconcerting to see Meredith's lifeless hand with the blond hair in it. Barbie was right after all when she wrote of that in her book, unlike what we have been told over and over, that it was a kinky black hair.
Why were we led to believe it was a black man's hair by Charlie and Bruce, the only ones who had access to those kind of pictures?

Eta: current pmf thread, pictures posted by Jools June 21, 3:15pm and 6:11pm.

Is there a better picture of this? I logged in to see it, and all I saw was about a 1"X2" little picture and I saw maybe a dark thin thing in a bag, but no blond(e) hair.

As for the black hair, I think that was something Frank noted originally way back in his archives when the police were talking about their first clues, before they even arrested Amanda. He mentioned it later as well, though I don't know if it would be available in the restored archives or not.

 

[Draca]

Here's the photo - Warning: I've added a spoiler for those who do not want to see it.

I wonder who in the guilter community has access to this film. Could journalists like Barbie or Andrea really have been given access to this video? According to PMF Barbie saw the video.

Pretty crazy they would lose this hair. Don't understand that.

It ironically could have been Amanda's. Filomena or her boyfriend Giacomo Silenzi would also be likely.

If there were photos of the long rumored black hairs I would love to see the photo. I know the appeals discuss testing of hairs formations.

 

[Kaosium]

Really - so there is nothing in this world that could stop or slow down digestion when the attack first happened on Meredith, like stress, fear and anxiety and I dare anyone on this board to tell me how long the attack on Meredith lasted. How long from the first stab wound till the last one. No one knows except the ones responsible. Stomach contents and TOD mean nothing, stomach contents and time of attack on the other hand, probally do.

There's a point no method for estimating ToD means anything if you take it to that extreme. I don't think you're realizing that theory only narrowly focuses on one possible confounding factor without taking into account there would very likely be other evidence of it were that to be true.

It's kinda like saying (in another case) that they couldn't estimate the ToD from body temperature because we don't know for sure whether the victim was thrown in a freezer for hours in the middle of the night, or maybe in a sauna. There was no evidence that occurred, and the lack thereof ought to preclude it being considered.

Hell, even if you had it on videotape, the tape could have been altered, or the camera time changed between the filming of the death and the discovery by investigators.

 

[Kaosium]

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_401664e0164c1ee2ac.png[/qimg]

Here's the photo - Warning: I've added a spoiler for those who do not want to see it.

I wonder who in the guilter community has access to this film. Could journalists like Barbie or Andrea really have been given access to this video? According to PMF Barbie saw the video.

Pretty crazy they would lose this hair. Don't understand that.

It ironically could have been Amanda's. Filomena or her boyfriend Giacomo Silenzi would also be likely.

If there were photos of the long rumored black hairs I would love to see the photo. I know the appeals discuss testing of hairs formations.

It could have been Meredith's too, which is why it's not in evidence. They might have realized that at some point.

I currently have access to Red, Blond and Brown (but no grey!) hairs of the appropriate length. Samples were taken! A test was conducted! At approximately the same distance and simulating the lighting as best I could, I couldn't tell for the life of me which was which with any real confidence. I moved and changed the angle and light bounced off them different and they all looked like that one in the picture, part dark, part blondish. From the right angle I could tell, I dunno if I have the right angle on this one or not.

The 'second opinion' thinks it looks more blondish than anything, however I must add the caveat that the 'second opinion' misidentified the brown hair as the blond one in my little test. I apologize if I sound too cynical about fuzzy photographic evidence with poor lighting on the internet, I think I did this to you before. I do appreciate you finding that and blowing it up, Draca.

I have an idea, once Dan-O took the bathmat footprint to the S&T part of the forum and started a poll. If you were to include several different options, and make it so everyone that voted would have to be listed to try to minimize bias, you could see with what confidence people would say it was blond(e), another color or indeterminate.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_401664e0164c1ee2ac.png[/qimg]

Here's the photo - Warning: I've added a spoiler for those who do not want to see it.

I wonder who in the guilter community has access to this film. Could journalists like Barbie or Andrea really have been given access to this video? According to PMF Barbie saw the video.

Pretty crazy they would lose this hair. Don't understand that.

It ironically could have been Amanda's. Filomena or her boyfriend Giacomo Silenzi would also be likely.

If there were photos of the long rumored black hairs I would love to see the photo. I know the appeals discuss testing of hairs formations.

I would have guessed that the hair in the photo Draca posted was blonde, but with such a bright flash and a slightly fuzzy photograph I wouldn't have said I was certain by any means. If it looks darker in other photographs, as stated by Kaosium, I'd lean towards thinking it wasn't blonde at all.

Are there any decent-quality photographs of the hair?

Curiosity aside, I know from personal experience that long hair gets everywhere in a shared household. Much like DNA evidence, someone's hair where it has no excuse for being is strong evidence that they were present, but someone's hair or DNA in a place where it has a perfectly good excuse for being proves nothing. If the hair belongs to a housemate rather than Rudy it's of limited evidentiary value, since there are all sorts of ways it could have gotten to Meredith's corpse other than being pulled off the head of a murderer.

 

[Chris C]

Wow, it was a little disconcerting to see Meredith's lifeless hand with the blond hair in it. Barbie was right after all when she wrote of that in her book, unlike what we have been told over and over, that it was a kinky black hair.
Why were we led to believe it was a black man's hair by Charlie and Bruce, the only ones who had access to those kind of pictures?

Eta: current pmf thread, pictures posted by Jools June 21, 3:15pm and 6:11pm.

And yet the hair wasn't used against knox in trial. Guess it wasn't hers.

 

[Draca]

It could have been Meredith's too, which is why it's not in evidence. They might have realized that at some point.

The 'second opinion' thinks it looks more blondish than anything, however I must add the caveat that the 'second opinion' misidentified the brown hair as the blond one in my little test. I apologize if I sound too cynical about fuzzy photographic evidence with poor lighting on the internet, I think I did this to you before. I do appreciate you finding that and blowing it up, Draca.

The photo was the one posted on PMF. Looking at it again without the word - blonde - prejudicing my perception. It's probably Meredith's own hair.

Realizing that, it's not really that interesting. The forensic team probably tested it and found it a match for MK. Although, if they lost it that wouldn't shock me. Either way.....

One very good reason to believe it is Meredith's hair is that she had hair yanked from her scalp that was found on the floor. If MK was crawling on the floor by the wardrobe she could have easily gotten some of her own hair on her hand.

 

[komponisto]

No blond hair

A few days ago, "Michael" (the founder of PMF) corrected Harry Rag (!) on this supposed "blond hair" (emphasis added):

Just to correct you on one misfact in one of your earlier posts in this section. There were no blond hairs in Meredith's hand. There were no hairs at all. There was a textile fibre, possibly wool, but no hair. I know where you got the blond hair thing from, but it isn't correct. My guess is it was a translation mistake.

(The blog post from which this comment is taken, and the author's own comments, are a wonderful example of sanity and resistance to a PMF/TJMK onslaught.)

 

[TheNooch]

How can anyone actually believe that Amanda Know would kill another?

 

[TheNooch]

How can anyone actually believe that Amanda Know would kill another?

I mean she doesn't look like a killer to me.

I once saw a video of Charles Manson, and Amanda Knoz is no Charles Manson.

 

[Mary_H]

Is there a better picture of this? I logged in to see it, and all I saw was about a 1"X2" little picture and I saw maybe a dark thin thing in a bag, but no blond(e) hair.

As for the black hair, I think that was something Frank noted originally way back in his archives when the police were talking about their first clues, before they even arrested Amanda. He mentioned it later as well, though I don't know if it would be available in the restored archives or not.

Here is the article that was in the London Times on November 13, 2007. Personally, I have always believed it, and believe it's why they went after Patrick in the first place. Why they wanted to cover it up afterward, I don't know.