Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[shuttlt]

But the 90-odd data points show a very good fit to a bell curve, with well-defined percentile stages. And you're correct to say that I extrapolated the curve out the the sort of times suggested by Massei's court. I did so by simply fitting the study curve to the right hand side of a standard normal curve*. The extrapolation to the t = 150 minutes mark is fairly accurate: 150 minutes sits at the 98% point. You're also right to say that assigning numbers at the very narrow tail end of the curve is somewhat arbitrary - but only because the numbers are so very small at that point. Actually, the extrapolation of a 99.995% point at t = 240 minutes is probably conservative - it might be as high as 99.998% (implying that only 1 in 50,000 people has a lag period of this length or longer).

* Even though the report's authors make the point of saying that the T(lag) curve for solid food does not follow a normal curve pattern, what they mean by this is that it's an asymmetrical bell curve - i.e. the left side of the curve (i.e. to the left of the median) is "squashed" relative to the right side. But both sides of the curve do follow a normal curve pattern, so as long as one deals with each half of the curve separately, one can treat it as a normal curve.

Is it necessarily normally distributed all the way to t=240? Lots of things are normal within a range and then not when you go outside it - height, mortality etc...This isn't to argue that on the face of it the digestion of the meal isn't good evidence for innocence. Claims like 1 in 50,000 seem to me to be adding more certainty than the study warrants.

 

[shuttlt]

if the DNA goes too, then all that is left is the wierd behaviour, and that is nowhere never enough to convict.

Hopefully if the DNA goes the case does likewise. At least that would bring some kind of resolution to things.

 

[Kaosium]

As ALT notes, these are directly from the article halides sent us to
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Quote:
They are emotionally and financially devastated, says Kris Johnson, who taught Amanda English at Seattle Prep, the exclusive Jesuit high school which costs about $ 20,000 a year. She is number one on Marriot’s approved list.
Quote:
Madison Paxton is the kosher friend, the one that the careful Marriot casting has approved.
___________________________
WOW, just wow !


Indeed, I also suspect the good Dr is having second thoughts about where he sent us.

How does anyone save a communications engineer or self published author successfully 'spin' the above direct quotes from the writer of the article himself, much less the incredibly incriminating later commenters.

After all, the endlessly regurgitated talking point here is that Marriott does nothing except 'schedule' a few media requests for Curt and Edda.

In reality,these are little other than US media Dog and Pony shows with obedient anchors reading from the PR provided script of questions.
But woe be to the opposition poster who leads that cheer on this fact based playing field of mobile goalposts.

Thankfully, halides1's link did that for us.
Thanks in advance

Gee, Pilot, I just had an opportunity to read this whole thing, I kinda just skimmed it in the flurry of posts yesterday. I found something interesting, and like a cat who caught their first rat I bring it to lay at your feet!

Why don't we take a look at where some of that 'information,' which I'm not sure whether I should 'dis' or 'miss,' might have come from?

One who definitely doesn’t tolerate it, breaking the city chain of solidarity is Peggy Ganong, a doctoral student in French at the university, a translator who has lived for 20 years in Paris, she is the spoiler who has taken up the task to dismantle the “consensus machine” on her internet forum perugiamurderfile.org. “I don’t know if the girl is guilty I only know that this rabid activity of image management to bleach her reputation is not convincing, actually, it is suspicious”

[Amanda’s] family - that between airplanes, lawyers, press offices appears to have spent more than $ 1,000 000, and claims it is deep in debts - is only partially responsible for the operation, as several local potentates whose path have crossed Amanda’s in the classrooms of the Jesuit high school have taken action to defend the future possible convict. It seems that Amanda was very fond of the daughter of judge Michael Heavy. He was the first one to write an outraged letter to the Italian magistrates and to inspire the group Friends of Amanda, together with Tom Wright, a tycoon with interests in the movies industry whose children were at Seattle Prep.

“In order to defend the reputation of an institution that prepares the local ruling class” Ganong explains, “they have organized fund raisers to pay some of the costs necessary to sell the image of the typical naive American girl which, regardless of how things went, it’s totally false”.

From the TV show on the page before:

PEGGY: “One of the things that aroused my suspicions was that the family issued a press release the day after the arrest. I found it strange- and interesting. And then I discovered that a Public Relations firm was recruited to manage the Amanda image - a firm known to use techniques, I don’t want to say unethical, but let’s say unconventional, in order to reach their objective.”

“I think that the incredibly one-sided coverage of the case in the American media is the result of this massive PR activity that cost more than a million dollars. What Marriott and the family have done was to say from the moment that the tabloids demonized Amanda, we’ve painted her as an angel. That’s why they’ve constructed an image of a typical American girl, which is probably just as false as the demonized image of her, which the tabloids have perpetuated.”

Boy does that highlighted name look familiar! I think I've seen it before, but you know how I am with names sometimes. Hrm...let me see, maybe it was on something known as the 'Strange Dave' show? I think she said she ran a messageboard too! I also recall her being awfully evasive as to whether Amanda might be innocent on that show, and it's not like that Dave guy was demure in his interrogation techniques. As a matter of fact I had the urge to reach through my screen and bounce his head off his desk a few times he was annoying me so.

I wonder what the date of that radio show would have been? It seems to me that I recall it being just about the same time as this article, but I could be mistaken. Oh, look, I just found it, lemme link it and youtube conveniently shows the date, it's before! Isn't that interesting! That's a long youtube, so I don't want to watch it again to try to find the part where (I seem to recall) she gave me the impression that 'anything was possible' more or less summed up in her mind the probability of Amanda being innocent. Maybe the fact I'd read that messageboard extensively colored that impression somewhat, and given the nature of the discussion she was moderating at the time and her comments there, I'd lay odds she thought it more probable the moon was made of green cheese. That wouldn't be 'mindreading' though, that would be putting it into proper context.

What I find the most interesting is how it seems it's perfectly OK to condemn parents trying to defend their child from a bizarre conviction for going to the media and using a PR firm, yet here is someone talking with one of the top newspapers in Italy being rather...economical...with the truth. I see this $1,000,000 figure here and I remember where it came from. A bunch of 'intrepid investigators' employing techniques passed down from the three blind mice pulled it out of their asses! It ranks right up there with Bruce Fisher being a cameraman in Seattle, Steve Moore investigating financial crimes in the Pacific, and LondonJohn really being an infiltrator from Texas attempting to destroy them.

So in other words, Pilot, you just posted a couple quotes from some reporter who'd been fed a 'load of crap' about how media and PR interacts in the US and you extrapolate that into some bizarre 'dog and pony show' conspiracy? Is it any surprise they think Madison might look better on TV than the guy with the paper clip in his lip? That they'd suggest they not talk to media that is likely to take their comments out of context and use it in a smear like the Daily Mail did repeatedly?

This also says the family issued a 'press release' the day after Amanda was arrested, from someone spewing Marxist rhetoric who believed this was all about the reputation of Seattle Prep? Pilot, you honestly take this nonsense seriously?

This simply for laughs:

“We are not in Wisconsin, Kansas, Georgia nor in any other puritan area of the US. The middle class here is liberal, open, cosmopolitan.... Amanda was practicing yoga, she played soccer and was studying abroad. Not really typically American, but rather a Seattle behavior”, Charles Mudede from the weekly magazine the Stranger explains: “But it was more convenient to present her like a standard girl because this would have triggered national solidarity and the suspicion derived from the ignorance that America nurtures towards everything situated outside its border”.

Wisconsin puritan? What on earth is he talking about? He must 'think' I'm on a one man mission to dispel that notion!

 

[pilot padron]

Yes, well said, but *what* was said

For Seattle she is normal. Doesn't flush the toilet with pee (mellow yellow, shows environmental consciousness and saves water, pisses off English people), smokes pot provided by boyfriends, doesn't actually drink too much, has a "unique" personality (required), follows her own drummer (required), lives life for the moment, engages in yoga moves spontaneously. Thinks the cops are good guys and you should try to help them out. There is really nothing about this girl that looks strange from the Seattle perspective. People are not the same around the world. She is now a hardened Italian who would RUN from the cops just like any Italian would.

Well said.

Agree, Rose.

As another who appreciates coherent use of words to logically present a point, I share your Kudos.
That point was indeed well presented.

But it you read *what was said* in addition to *how well it was said*, then from my perspective of believing Knox had a distinct role in the death of Meredith Kercher, the 'well said' argument leads to this conclusion:

People from Seattle are unique in that they all have a special blend of quirkiness

Amanda Knox is from Seattle and she murdered her roommate

Therefore people from Seattle are more likely to murder their roommates.

 

[Kaosium]

Until the reports on the DNA are introduced I'm still on the fence about the whole thing. I believe that the case for not-guilty is stronger than the case for guilty, and certainly makes more sense, however if the DNA report comes back and vindicates the work done by the police, then at that point AK and RS have a lot of explaining to do.

To me the DNA evidence is the strongest, the lamp, the break-in, the change of stories, the weird behaviour can be explained innocently, but if the finding is that the DNA results are confirmed and no likihood of contamination then that places them in the room at some point either during or after the muder.

What makes you think that even if they can establish that was Meredith's DNA on the blade, and Raffaele's on the bra clasp, that it got there as a result of them being involved in the murder? It would seem to me they are far more likely to be the result of contamination or secondary transfer, if not slight of hand.

 

[Kaosium]

Agree, Rose.

As another who appreciates coherent use of words to logically present a point, I share your Kudos.

That point was indeed well presented.

But it you read *what was said* in addition to *how well it was said*, then from my perspective of believing Knox had a distinct role in the death of Meredith Kercher, the 'well said' argument leads to this conclusion:

People from Seattle are unique in that they all have a special blend of quirkiness

Amanda Knox is from Seattle and she murdered her roommate

Therefore people from Seattle are more likely to murder their roommates.

Huh, funny we can read the same words and come to vastly different conclusions. I thought he was saying what's pretty typical in Seattle might come across as strange to an Italian or English girl. I too have found people behave differently in disparate locations.

Did you know in some places they eat kittens and bunnies?

 

[pilot padron]

Why we we sent there, then ??

Gee, Pilot, I just had an opportunity to read this whole thing, I kinda just skimmed it in the flurry of posts yesterday. I found something interesting, and like a cat who caught their first rat I bring it to lay at your feet!

So in other words, Pilot, you just posted a couple quotes from some reporter who'd been fed a 'load of crap' about how media and PR interacts in the US and you extrapolate that into some bizarre 'dog and pony show' conspiracy?
This simply for laughs:

“We are not in Wisconsin, Kansas, Georgia nor in any other puritan area of the US. The middle class here is liberal, open, cosmopolitan.... Amanda was practicing yoga, she played soccer and was studying abroad. Not really typically American, but rather a Seattle behavior”,

1) Per haps you are recalling the name Ganong from the frequent vile and despicable personal attacks levied against her by personages so inherently antagonistic and factless that they are deleted from most venues they attempt to spew their peculiar brand of hatred on, and even must resort to self publishing to get a book in print

But, I digress about Ms Ganong and 'self publishers'; on to the main portion of your argument

2) halides1 has been one of the most vocal in championing the charade that Marriott does nothing more than act as a scheduler for the Edda and Curt 'acts' on US TV.
Many others acknowledge that Marriott is indeed an impenetrable gate guard for any and all media family access, and in fact does *lots* more.
In fact Marriott 'showcases' the 'lots more' he himself does for Knox on his self promotional sales oriented web page.

3)The point was halides1 incredibly sent us to a page that cast even more doubt on his charade about Marriott that is IMHO agenda driven and absurd.
If the reporter is in your view is 'full of crap', that is only additional emphasis for my point that halides sent us where he probably now wishes we all did not go.
The page admittedly contains divergent views about the case.
Many of which certainly are not in lock step with the 'popular' views here
Still another reason for my surprise at being sent there by halides1

4) RE: quirky Seattle; please note above reply to Rose

 

[platonov]

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.

I disagree, I've seen the curve for t(lag) compared to that of the height of human males. Off the top of my head the probability that Meredith survived until 9PM is about 3%, roughly the chance a human male is taller than 6'2". That's not an outlier, it's just unlikely. The outliers would be the ones over 8', which it appeared you were asking for. I think there's a world of difference.

I believe I've seen that too, Kaosium

I've even seen lone wolves doing stats on the back of napkins in burning Italian restaurants suddenly apply 25% corrections to previously very precise results [like p=0.999 @ 170 mins] when the defence appeal docs bill arrives.
I've seen arguments stretched and twisted till they groaned so that an upper bound of 9.20 pm is always the result regardless of any other data.

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe.
(Hell - I'm not sure I even believe them myself)

And I am expecting to see even more

 

[PhantomWolf]

What makes you think that even if they can establish that was Meredith's DNA on the blade, and Raffaele's on the bra clasp, that it got there as a result of them being involved in the murder? It would seem to me they are far more likely to be the result of contamination or secondary transfer, if not slight of hand.

Perhaps you need to reread what I actually said.

 

[RoseMontague]

The girls testimonies pulled from Massei and Micheli

Dinner at Robyn and Amy’s house:
Robyn – perhaps around 6:00 p.m.
Amy – 5:30 - 6:00 p.m.
Sophie – “without time to clarify where the four friends had begun to eat”

Micheli: (P.=Sophie Purton)

On 17 November, P. made a new statement to the magistrate proceeding, without confirming the first statements to clarify the time at which the four friends began to eat in the house of A. and R. (Perhaps 18:00, or even earlier) but corrected the time that was returned in Via del Lupo, remembering that they were still 20:55.

Il 17 novembre, la P. rendeva una nuova deposizione al magistrato procedente, confermando le prime dichiarazioni senza tuttavia poter precisare meglio l’orario in cui le quattro amiche avevano cominciato a mangiare nella casa di A. e R. (probabilmente le 18:00, o forse prima): correggeva invece l’ora in cui era rientrata in Via del Lupo, ricordando che erano ancora le 20:55.

 

[RoseMontague]

Perhaps you need to reread what I actually said.

I noticed you indicated the lamp as one of the things that point to guilt. Do you think that the prosecution has proven when it got there and who brought it into Meredith's room?

 

[Kaosium]

1) Perhaps you are recalling the name Ganong from the frequent vile and despicable personal attacks levied against her by personages so inherently antagonistic and factless that they are deleted from most venues they attempt to spew their peculiar brand of hatred on, and even must resort to self publishing to get a book in print

Do you honestly believe that happened in a vacuum?

2) halides1 has been one of the most vocal in championing the charade that Marriott does nothing more than act as a scheduler for the Edda and Curt 'acts' on US TV.

Because that's about all it amounts to. Otherwise just think about it: don't you suppose you could have figured out the guy who took the staple gun to his face might come across poorly compared to the studious girl with glasses? Or that talking to the Daily Mail, Mirror and Sun might have simply led to yet more quotes out of context so they could smear their daughter? Or are you saying you're just not that bright?

I know I could have told them sending Curt Knox into a 'debate' with Ann Coulter on a complex issue like this was likely to get him his ass kicked on national television and was a real bad idea.

I'm sure the Marriott group appreciates all the word of post advertising you guys do for them though!

Many others acknowledge that Marriott is indeed an impenetrable gate guard for any and all media family access, and in fact does *lots* more.

Yeah, but they either believe or listen to the one who thought it was all about the reputation of Seattle Prep so the 'ruling class' wouldn't be embarrassed. What do you think of that one by the way?

All I can say now is I understand better the deep suspicion of 'Ks'...

In fact Marriott 'showcases' the 'lots more' he himself does for Knox on his self promotional sales oriented web page.

We went over that once and I wasted a lot of time typing out a post that explained it and days later Kermit kooked out on the CPJ website. Hrm...maybe I didn't waste my time! Perhaps it was part of my sinister plot!

3)The point was halides1 incredibly sent us to a page that cast even more doubt on his charade about Marriott that is IMHO agenda driven and absurd.
If the reporter is in your view is 'full of crap', that is only additional emphasis for my point that halides sent us where he probably now wishes we all did not go.

He can answer this for himself, all I can say is I'm damn glad he did, I'd seen that somewhere a long time ago and had forgotten it. There's some great material there...

The page admittedly contains divergent views about the case.
Many of which certainly are not in lock step with the 'popular' views here
Still another reason for my surprise at being sent there by halides1

You really want to 'win' one badly, don't you?

It looks to me like he understood better what it revealed. He's a real bright guy and subtle too...

4) RE: quirky Seattle; please note above reply to Rose

Yes, I know, we all do. All roads lead to 'AmandaDidIt!'

I think Spartacus was just trying to explain things are a bit different in Seattle than they are in Italy or England and what comes across strangely there is not uncommon in Grungeville. I suspect the purpose was not to absolve her of murder in a single post.

 

[Kaosium]

Perhaps you need to reread what I actually said.

Fair enough, I shouldn't have typed contamination. However what I was wondering is why you thought that 30 picograms mixed in with two or more other people's DNA on that tiny clasp, and 10 picograms of Meredith's on a knife in Raffaele's drawer that doesn't match two of the wounds and the outline, necessarily 'proves' they were in that room during the murder or were otherwise involved.

 

[PhantomWolf]

I noticed you indicated the lamp as one of the things that point to guilt.

Some people think that.

Do you think that the prosecution has proven when it got there and who brought it into Meredith's room?

I think it's irrellevant to the case because it can't be shown who put it there.

 

[shuttlt]

Fair enough, I shouldn't have typed contamination. However what I was wondering is why you thought that 30 picograms mixed in with two or more other people's DNA on that tiny clasp, and 10 picograms of Meredith's on a knife in Raffaele's drawer that doesn't match two of the wounds and the outline, necessarily 'proves' they were in that room during the murder or were otherwise involved.

Given that Amanda and Raffaele are assumed to be innocent, they are surprising findings though, aren't they?

 

[PhantomWolf]

Fair enough, I shouldn't have typed contamination. However what I was wondering is why you thought that 30 picograms mixed in with two or more other people's DNA on that tiny clasp, and 10 picograms of Meredith's on a knife in Raffaele's drawer that doesn't match two of the wounds and the outline, necessarily 'proves' they were in that room during the murder or were otherwise involved.

If the Independant experts say that from their viewing of the evidence that this is their conclusion, I'd have to agree with them based on their evaluation of the evidence, unless there was good reason to reject their findings.

 

[RoseMontague]

Agree, Rose.

As another who appreciates coherent use of words to logically present a point, I share your Kudos.
That point was indeed well presented.

But it you read *what was said* in addition to *how well it was said*, then from my perspective of believing Knox had a distinct role in the death of Meredith Kercher, the 'well said' argument leads to this conclusion:

People from Seattle are unique in that they all have a special blend of quirkiness

Amanda Knox is from Seattle and she murdered her roommate

Therefore people from Seattle are more likely to murder their roommates.

Sorry Pilot, I guess I missed my chance when I failed to attend the Mignini school of logic.

It is possible, to begin with on the knife. The knife was in the room, means it was used. If the knife is the murder weapon, the knife was in the room.

Still time to register at the Massei College of Reason:

Now, concerning how this knife could have found itself in the house at Via della Pergola when Meredith was killed, and in the custody of Amanda, the following must be observed: Amanda had with her a very large handbag, as Romanelli declared (page 51, hearing of 7 February 2009); in this handbag there could have been found a place for the knife in question. Amanda, in her various movements [about town], as for example to take herself to the le Chic pub situated in Via Alessi, could have found herself walking alone, even late into the night, on roads that could have seemed not very safe for a girl to be on at night time. It is thus possible and in fact probable, considering the relationship that Raffaele Sollecito had with knives (he never separated himself from his knife, as has been seen), that Amanda, advised and convinced by her boyfriend, that is Raffaele Sollecito, to take this knife with her, if not only to make her feel more secure, and that, if necessary, it could have served as a deterrent against possible ill-intentioned persons that, at night and on her own, she may have encountered. Furthermore, since it was a kitchen knife, Amanda, were she to be checked, would have been able to easily explain why she was carrying it.

 

[RoseMontague]

Given that Amanda and Raffaele are assumed to be innocent, they are surprising findings though, aren't they?

After seeing the video of the collection of the bra clasp, I am not at all surprised. They could obviously see Raffaele's DNA on it, before it was even tested. Must have been a couple ounces of DNA, at least.

I don't believe Meredith's DNA was ever on the knife and I believe the experts will confirm that.

 

[shuttlt]

After seeing the video of the collection of the bra clasp, I am not at all surprised.

You would have expected the DNA resoluts to have come out as they did? You would have expected Raffaele's to be the next most common DNA on the clasp after Merediths? You would have expected Meredith's DNA to be identified on the knife?

 

[RoseMontague]

You would have expected the DNA resoluts to have come out as they did? You would have expected Raffaele's to be the next most common DNA on the clasp after Merediths? You would have expected Meredith's DNA to be identified on the knife?

I am not surprised at the findings on the bra clasp. If I had seen that video in real time I believe I would have predicted the result of a testing would be something incriminating. I am certain that Meredith's DNA was not on the knife blade.