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Shoo-in Republican loses over Tea Party

It was all about the Ryan plan to abolish Medicare. Corwin voted for it. She went down.

Americans love their universal health care (as they should).
 
wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years.

and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again.

:)
 
Send campaign donations to a Democrat you like and a teabagger. That ought to teach them.
 
With about 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Hochul had 48 percent and Corwin 42 percent. Also on the ballot was a Democrat-turned-Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, who polled 9 percent.
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So we are not to pay any attention to this says Republican leadership. Humm.

Still, this seems like it must be something of a disappointment, losing a traditionally Republican seat. Pesky sex scandals.
 
To my thinking, the key to understaning would be what happened to the Davis numbers. Was he on the way down to 9% or going up, pulling votes from Corwin? If going up and drawing votes from the more moderate positioned Corwin - I'd agree with the Republicans. But if votes were shifting to Corwin from Davis - that's gotta be bad. Says that Corwin was not moderate enough fast enough to win.

If both Corwin and Davis were dropping, well, that's not rocket science.
 
So, a 3 way race is more complex, but not all that complex.
Davis the Tea Party candidate dropped dramatically but even a more moderately positioned Corwin could not pick them up.
Kathy Hochul (D) – 42 (+11)
Jane Corwin (R) – 38 (+2)
Jack Davis (Tea) – 12 (-9)
Ian Murphy (G) – 1 (no change)

...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul. Hochul’s favorable rating is 55%, with Corwin at 43% (Davis is down to 28%). So in this red district, Hochul is still holding a lead with just days to go, with an edge over independents and holding more of her own party than Corwin.

And there’s evidence in the poll that the focus on Medicare is really helping her. Accoding to the poll, 21% of likely voters say Medicare is the most important issue in the race. And 74% of those voters favor Hochul.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/05/21/ny-26-hochul-maintains-lead-even-as-davis-fades/
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There were some fine ads running, I assure you. Most of the anti-Hochul ones were desperately trying to tie her to Pelosi. That didn't scare the powerful 'old coot' vote in Buffalo as much as 'worthless medicade'.
 
...So most of Davis’ support has moved not to Corwin, but to Hochul.
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That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two.
 
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Puppycow said:
That may be true, but it could also be that moderate Corwin supporters and undecideds moved to Hotchul and Davis’ support moved to Corwin. Or a combination of the two.
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I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing?
That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving...
 
Kopji said:
I suppose I disagree, why would Davis's supporters move to Corwin, who represented much the same thing?
That's why I looked to Davis's numbers. I presume that being the Tea Party guy he would represent the 'change' being promoted in medical care. His numbers dropped dramatically but did not show up in Corwin. Corwin went up a little, but not enough. Maybe that was her moderates leaving...
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Because voters vote strategically. The polls showed that Davis wasn't going to win, and that the democrat might win, so they switched their vote to the establishment republican.
 
I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012.
 
Lurker said:
I predict FoxNews will totally ignore this event. Now, if the Republican had won then they would be promoting it as a bellweather for 2012.
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My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.
 
A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".
 
gnome said:
A problem is that the Republicans haven't even tried (as far as I can tell) to argue how senior citizens are to cope if the voucher isn't for enough money. Not even a token "the competition for voucher money will drive prices down" promise. So it basically sounds like, "Hey Grandpa, screw you!".
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They can't think of a way to cope. I'm surprised they haven't just come up with a way out there lie about how it would work.
 
Tricky said:
My guess is that they will use it as a scary story about how underhanded Dem campaigning is to try to scare old people with Medicare. Or they may harp on the fact that the votes are being (already) contested. But some sort of spin is guaranteed.
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Dem House Win Kills Entitlement Reform Hopes
By Chris Stirewalt
Published May 25, 2011
FoxNews.com
(...)
The 26th District, which covers suburban Buffalo and Rochester, is loaded with elderly voters. That’s what makes it so Republican, but also why it is fertile territory for “Mediscare” tactics.”
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/25/dem-house-win-kills-entitlement-reform-hopes/
 
Thunder said:
wow, the seat has been in GOP hands for 40 years.

and now the Democrats have it. and now the House is one seat closer to having a Democrat majority again.

:)
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I understand that the seat is going to get redistricted out of existance next term.
 
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