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Obama's Middle East Speech

Puppycow

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The other side of this seems to be that, while the speech may piss off Israel and its supporters, the Arabs are far from satisfied.

And, it's unlikely to lead to anything concrete anyway. The Palestinians and Israelis have never been farther apart. There is no serious "peace process," and nothing Obama says can change that. The only effects of this speech will be domestic political effects, and he may have to "walk back" some of the things he said. So why give any speech at all in the first place?
 
Ed Morrissey at Hot Air, while panning the speech as presenting nothing new:

Er … no, he didn’t. He said that the settlement should “be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps.” That’s been the US position for quite a while.
 
Ed Morrissey at Hot Air, while panning the speech as presenting nothing new:

So if, indeed, the US position hasn't changed, then why give a speech at all? I see no upside. He's injected himself into a news cycle that was pretty bad for republicans (Newt's self-immolation) and painted a great big target on himself.
 
So if, indeed, the US position hasn't changed, then why give a speech at all? I see no upside. He's injected himself into a news cycle that was pretty bad for republicans (Newt's self-immolation) and painted a great big target on himself.
No, Newt's nonsense was bad for .... newt.....
Maybe two not sharpest tools in shed
 
Jeffrey Goldberg says that Obama's speech was a pro-Israel speech:

Republicans are misreading Obama's speech for short-term political gain. But they're doing the cause they ostensibly support -- Israel -- a disservice in the process. Because President Obama's speech was enthusiastically pro-Israel. I don't mean pro-Israel merely in the "he's speaking hard truths the Israelis must hear about the occupation if their country is to survive as a Jewish democracy" sort of way. I mean, it was pro-Israel in a red-meat I-heart-Israel, damn-Hamas, Iran-can-go-to-hell, Israel is the eternal Jewish state sort of way.
 
Funny, back in 2005, George W. Bush said that the US position was that the borders of the two states should be based on the 1949 armistice lines.

Any final status agreement must be reached between the two parties, and changes to the 1949 Armistice lines must be mutually agreed to. A viable two-state solution must ensure contiguity of the West Bank, and a state of scattered territories will not work. There must also be meaningful linkages between the West Bank and Gaza. This is the position of the United States today, it will be the position of the United States at the time of final status negotiations.

Where was the outcry about throwing Israel under the bus then? The ZOA outrage? The pundits on news shows talking about a radical anti-Israel shift in US policy?
 
I saw the speech and i don't think it was anti-israel at all. It essentially consisted of: both sides need to start talking again, Palestinians can't expect israel to take them seriously when they elect hamas and refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the state of israel, and israel needs to back off on occupation and settlements.

Some jewish groups are so pro-israel that they act like israel is immune from criticism, I am a pro-israel jew that does not think that.

I think that Obama mostly said what he had to say in the speech. On arab states he can only go so far in criticizing our allies for their anti-protest violence but he did point out that the US supports democratic movements and oppose violent suppression of peaceful protest whether they occur in a allied nation or an enemy nation. He also pointed out that while we have the same wish for every arab nation, we know that every nation has its own situation and thus we cant treat them all the same way (saudi arabia can't be approached the same way we would syria because the saudis could cause havok on western economies if we pissed them off too much).
 
I suspect that Obama may have just lost his next election. As reasonable as that idea is, it is politically suicidal.

Bush started out suggesting something like that, and got so much pressure he completely reversed course.
 
I just hope he manages to get negotiations started again.

I think the UN should probably go ahead an grant Pakistan statehood (despite Israel's objections) and then at least begin to resolve the various conflicts that are obstacles to a more or less permanent peaceful solution.
 
Bush started out suggesting something like that, and got so much pressure he completely reversed course.

Uh, no, Bush explicitly stated that was the US position (and, in fact, made a worse comment, by saying 1949 instead of 1967), a year after he supposedly wrote a letter guaranteeing that Israel wouldn't have to return to the 1967 borders (which the letter didn't actually say). 1967 borders with land swaps was even directly promised by Secretary of State Rice at the Annapolis Conference, less than a year before Obama won the presidential election.

The Christian Science Monitor has a good take on how Obama's statements simply reiterate a 20-year-old position held by multiple presidents of both parties.

EDIT: The ADL seems to be pretty happy with Obama's speech. If this speech costs Obama the election, as you say, it won't be because he threw Israel under the bus with a radical shift in US policy.

It'll be because people are telling blatant lies about the speech.
 
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Er, the "1949 armstice lines" are the 1967 lines. Those were the borders from the 1949 armistice until the the 1967 war.

When someone says the "1948 lines" (as opposed to 1949 lines), on the other hand, it can mean one of two things, depending on context:

1). The same as the 1949 or 1967 lines, meaning the lines at the end of the 1948 war which were later made (semi-) official due to the 1949 armstice; or

2). The borders agreed by the committee before the 1948 war, which, for instance, do not include the Negev desert within Israel.
 
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um.....a peace deal based on the 1967 borders with a 5% to 10% land swap, is what folks have been talking about for the last 20 years. hell, even Olmert offered this when he was still PM.

why are the right-wing Zionists acting all surprised?
 
I suspect that Obama may have just lost his next election. As reasonable as that idea is, it is politically suicidal.

why? what did he say that is soo new?

his statement falls completely in line with the Geneva Accords, the Taba Accords, and even what former Prime Minister offered the Palestinians.

clearly, right-wing Zionists are making a fuss over nothing.
 
Er, the "1949 armstice lines" are the 1967 lines. Those were the borders from the 1949 armistice until the the 1967 war.

I know. That's what makes all this alarmist hand-wringing about Obama throwing Israel under the bus by supporting negotiated borders based on "1967" or "pre-1967" lines so insane.

At worst, Obama is merely re-iterating something that had been the consistent position of the Bush Administration (and, in fact, had been the US position for years). So why are Republicans and even the Simon Wiesenthal Center reacting like Obama just essentially declared he wanted Israel destroyed? And, in the case of the American Spectator, actually explicitly declared that?
 
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The Israeli press -- quite apart from its desire to bash Netanyahu in every opportunity -- is worried about two things.

1). This ignores the constant Palestinian refusal to accept Israel's existence, including the "moderate" PLO (although, to be fair, Obama mentioned -- negatively -- Hamas and Fatah's cooperation), which is the real root of the conflict.

2). Above all, it ignores Bush's 2004 address of guarantees that the USA will not demand Israeli withdrawals to the 1967 lines as part of the "payment" for Israel leaving Gaza. So Israel fears that Obama's demand for withdrawals to those lines with American "security guarantees" means in reality the same thing such US "guarantees" from 2005, or for that matter the "guarantees" given, say, to the non-Communist Polish government in exile, or the South Vietnamese.

To illustrate, let us take a possibility: that the Muslim brotherhood takes over Egypt and abrogates the peace treaty with Israel, for which Israel gave up the entire Sinai peninsula. Would Obama stand by America's guarantees to Israel during the 1979 peace process? Or would he do so only if it is expedient? I think we all know the answer is the latter, not because Obama is some monster or the USA 1979 guarantess were given in bad faith, but because that's the way political reality often works.

Israel surely has history on its side when it is extremely wary of giving up territory based on the world's, or the USA's, or any foreign power's, guarantees of its safety, however honestly meant. In fact I can't think of a case in history where such a thing did work.
 
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2). Above all, it ignores Bush's 2004 address of guarantees that the USA will not demand Israeli withdrawals to the 1967 lines as part of the "payment" for Israel leaving Gaza. So Israel fears that Obama's demand for withdrawals to those lines with American "security guarantees" means in reality the same thing such US "guarantees" meant for, say, the non-Communist Polish government in exile, or the South Vietnamese.

Except, as I've noted before, post-2004 Bush was saying pretty much the same thing that Obama just said.

I already quoted what he said in 2005.Here's what he said in January, 2008 (while in Jerusalem, no less):

The point of departure for permanent status negotiations to realize this vision seems clear: There should be an end to the occupation that began in 1967. The agreement must establish Palestine as a homeland for the Palestinian people, just as Israel is a homeland for the Jewish people. These negotiations must ensure that Israel has secure, recognized, and defensible borders. And they must ensure that the state of Palestine is viable, contiguous, sovereign, and independent.

It is vital that each side understands that satisfying the other's fundamental objectives is key to a successful agreement. Security for Israel and viability for the Palestinian state are in the mutual interests of both parties.

Achieving an agreement will require painful political concessions by both sides. While territory is an issue for both parties to decide, I believe that any peace agreement between them will require mutually agreed adjustments to the armistice lines of 1949 to reflect current realities and to ensure that the Palestinian state is viable and contiguous. I believe we need to look to the establishment of a Palestinian state and new international mechanisms, including compensation, to resolve the refugee issue.

Israeli withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967, with a negotiated border based on mutually-agreed-upon changes to the pre-1967 borders. Bush even hits the same point Obama just did, about Israel having to be secure but Palestine having to be viable.

How is Bush's 2005 and 2008 statement that Israel should have a secure and defensible border based on mutually-agreed territory swaps based on pre-1967 lines any different from Obama's statement yesterday hat Israel should have a secure and defensible border based on mutually-agreed territory swaps based on pre-1967 lines?
 
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Israel surely has history on its side when it is extremely wary of giving up territory based on the world's, or the USA's, or any foreign power's, guarantees of its safety, however honestly meant. In fact I can't think of a case in history where such a thing did work.

I don't disagree with that at all.

I just want to know why what Obama said is a cause for concern and even accusations that the US has sold out Israel, while there was no such concern expressed when Bush was saying essentially the exact same thing (at least, not in the US and not among the Israeli government at the time).

EDIT: I especially don't understand this newfound concern that Obama is demanding that Israel return to the 1967 borders as a condition for peace negotiations, with some nebulous "security guarantees" from the Americans. Obama's speech, in fact, makes it very clear that the 1967-based borders will come as a result of negotiations, not before, and that any changes to those borders would have to be agreed upon by both sides. He also makes it very clear that Israel should be expected and able to defend its own security as it sees fit, without having to rely on an outside power like America. He even says that any Israeli military withdrawal is conditional on a demonstrated ability for Palestine to maintain security against terrorists and weapons crossing the border into Israel.

The United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognised borders are established for both states. The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, and reach their potential, in a sovereign and contiguous state.

As for security, every state has the right to self-defence, and Israel must be able to defend itself – by itself – against any threat. Provisions must also be robust enough to prevent a resurgence of terrorism; to stop the infiltration of weapons; and to provide effective border security. The full and phased withdrawal of Israeli military forces should be coordinated with the assumption of Palestinian security responsibility in a sovereign, non-militarised state. The duration of this transition period must be agreed, and the effectiveness of security arrangements must be demonstrated.

In fact, the closest thing to a flat statement that Israel must withdraw from the occupied territories came from Bush's 2008 statement in Jerusalem, quoted above. Were Israeli newspapers fearful about being forced by America into indefensible borders then, Skeptic? Because the people over here that are now saying that Obama wants to force Israel to do that were saying nothing of the kind back then (and that's an honest question, by the way...I've already told you I have little knowledge of Israel's newspapers).

Everyone's treating Obama's speech as some kind of radical shift in American policy, when as far as I can tell, he's making the exact same statements Bush has made since at least 2005 (when, despite his supposed 2004 letter of guarantee, he made no mention of that when repeatedly calling for a negotiated border based on the 1949 armistice line).
 
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Israel surely has history on its side when it is extremely wary of giving up territory based on the world's, or the USA's, or any foreign power's, guarantees of its safety, however honestly meant.

How many attacks from the Egyptian military has Israel suffered since giving back the Sinai in 1981?
 

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