Continuation Part 2 - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Chris C]

Thanks for the link!

A breath of fresh air. Finally someone shows the case as it is. Not some unsolved mystery where "we'll never know what really happened" but a painfully obvious one.
The real question in this case is what led the system to such a terrible trainwreck, destroying of two innocents' lives and torturing all the involved families for years.

What I found interesting about the program was Mignini's admission that there is a lack of evidence.

He states something along the lines of: (translated by the producers of the show)

"Listen, I am very sincere. So if I made certain requests, it was because I was absolutely sure they were responsible. Otherwise if I had any doubts, I would have asked for acquittal for lack of evidence."


He just admitted that there was lack of evidence and the only reason he didn't ask for acquittal was because he thought they did it.

 

[snook1]

Thanks for the link!

A breath of fresh air. Finally someone shows the case as it is. Not some unsolved mystery where "we'll never know what really happened" but a painfully obvious one.
The real question in this case is what led the system to such a terrible trainwreck, destroying of two innocents' lives and torturing all the involved families for years.

It is rare for this crap of a site to post worthwile videos, but this time, they made it. Indeed, the show is not like all the other ones, where the case is being presented as mysterious and unsolved. The case is solved, there's no mystery. It's a pity though that Perugian authorities for some (well known) reasons refuse to set Amanda and Raffaele free.

@Chris - that's interesting, not sure if I interpreted his words the same way, but definitely interesting.

 

[RoseMontague]

What I found interesting about the program was Mignini's admission that there is a lack of evidence.

He states something along the lines of: (translated by the producers of the show)

"Listen, I am very sincere. So if I made certain requests, it was because I was absolutely sure they were responsible. Otherwise if I had any doubts, I would have asked for acquittal for lack of evidence."


He just admitted that there was lack of evidence and the only reason he didn't ask for acquittal was because he thought they did it.

That is a good point, I also did not read it that way the first time. I wonder if he meant it that way?

 

[zeb]

Have looked at both bags in said pics, I think the one on the floor thats laying down is not a laptop bag.
As some one said before me, laptop bags are black, green,red, or what ever plain colour.
But I have never seen one that matches the hand bag.
I sure the girls who read this web site, would love to get a laptop bag that goes with their shoes and hand bag and every colour out fit that they wear.
But at this moment this is not the case.
Sorry to say the bag on the floor looks like it is made for shopping and not for a lap top.

 

[Chris C]

That is a good point, I also did not read it that way the first time. I wonder if he meant it that way?

Why wouldn't he mean it that way. He said he was being sincere. He is telling the reporter that if he wasn't convinced of Knox's guilt he would have asked for acquittal because there isn't enough evidence to convict. Which basicly means he is saying that Knox/Sollecito should be acquitted.

I wonder what the guilters think about Mignini admitting there wasn't enough evidence to support a guilty conviction and that was using the bra clasp, the knife, and curatolo.

 

[simper]

Due to my ignorance of this case I cant really argue with you on most of the issues you raised and I agree with you that "There is no such things as "the western justice system".

"To be guilty she has to be 97-98% certain of being deeply involved in the murder."

"No, she has to be guilty beyond reasonable doubt."


How can someone be convicted beyond reasonable doubt without a 97-98% level of certainty that they are guilty?
QUOTE]

 

[daydreamer]

Why wouldn't he mean it that way. He said he was being sincere. He is telling the reporter that if he wasn't convinced of Knox's guilt he would have asked for acquittal because there isn't enough evidence to convict. Which basicly means he is saying that Knox/Sollecito should be acquitted.

I wonder what the guilters think about Mignini admitting there wasn't enough evidence to support a guilty conviction and that was using the bra clasp, the knife, and curatolo.

It is my recollection that when the verdict was announced in the first trial, Mignini said " That means the evidence is all good." (Or something to that effect). I don't have a cite for that, maybe someone with better search skills than mine can find the source. I always thought that was a very strange comment for a prosecutor. It seems he had some doubts himself.

 

[Antony]

What I found interesting about the program was Mignini's admission that there is a lack of evidence.

He states something along the lines of: (translated by the producers of the show)

"Listen, I am very sincere. So if I made certain requests, it was because I was absolutely sure they were responsible. Otherwise if I had any doubts, I would have asked for acquittal for lack of evidence."


He just admitted that there was lack of evidence and the only reason he didn't ask for acquittal was because he thought they did it.

Not necessarily. This seems more or less equivalent to saying, "if I didn't have the evidence to absolutely sure, then I would have asked for an acquittal".

(I'm not saying that Mignini had any evidence, because it's becoming more and more clear that he didn't - just that he's not necessarily saying that he didn't.)

 

[christianahannah]

Have looked at both bags in said pics, I think the one on the floor thats laying down is not a laptop bag.
As some one said before me, laptop bags are black, green,red, or what ever plain colour.
But I have never seen one that matches the hand bag.
I sure the girls who read this web site, would love to get a laptop bag that goes with their shoes and hand bag and every colour out fit that they wear.
But at this moment this is not the case.
Sorry to say the bag on the floor looks like it is made for shopping and not for a lap top.

But there are laptop bags which match the designer handbag of your choice (possibly even shoes, but of that I have no personal knowledge). I do not know if this was the case in 2007 but definitely is now. And even if not a designer bag, laptops can be carried in much more imaginative ways and prettier designs than black, green, red, or whatever plain color available (the latter of which are what men probably prefer).

I don't know if either bag pictured was used to carry a laptop or camera. There are two other bags featured in the video/photos - one on Filomena's bed and one on the desk chair. Don't know about those either.

 

[christianahannah]

Oggi has an interview of Raffaele.

52 Delitto di Perugia - Intervista esclusiva a Raffaele Sollecito: "Mi chiederanno scusa"
di Giangavino Sulas

http://www.oggi.it/in_edicola/

Excerpt from Corriere del Mezzogiorno.it

http://corrieredelmezzogiorno.corri...olce-ma-non-mi-ha-plagiato-190611480854.shtml

 

[Antony]

Due to my ignorance of this case I cant really argue with you on most of the issues you raised and I agree with you that "There is no such things as "the western justice system".

To be guilty she has to be 97-98% certain of being deeply involved in the murder.

No, she has to be guilty beyond reasonable doubt.

How can someone be convicted beyond reasonable doubt without a 97-98% level of certainty that they are guilty?

I think PhantomWolf is saying that "reasonable doubt" is something that has a qualitative meaning, not a quantitative one, so it's not helpful to put a probability figure on it, particularly when probability is something that is so poorly understood by the average member of the public.

It's the difference between something unlikely and something implausible. After all, "unlikely" things happen every day.

 

[Antony]

It is my recollection that when the verdict was announced in the first trial, Mignini said " That means the evidence is all good." (Or something to that effect). I don't have a cite for that, maybe someone with better search skills than mine can find the source. I always thought that was a very strange comment for a prosecutor. It seems he had some doubts himself.

I think this quote comes from when the judge decided that Amanda and Raffaele should not be granted bail while awaiting trial. Mignini is reported as having hugged Maresca (the ambulance-chasing lawyer for the Kercher family), because "it meant the evidence was good".

 

[Antony]

It is rare for this crap of a site to post worthwile videos, but this time, they made it. Indeed, the show is not like all the other ones, where the case is being presented as mysterious and unsolved. The case is solved, there's no mystery.

The mystery is that TJMK should host this video at all. Maybe they thought it would contain a message that it doesn't. One wonders how long it'll continue to be available from that website.

It's a pity though that Perugian authorities for some (well known) reasons refuse to set Amanda and Raffaele free.

Are the reasons well-known? It's easy to imagine what they might be, but I doubt whether anyone representing the Perugia authorities would articulate them - at least not the ones that seem apparent to us.

 

[RWVBWL]

Oggi has an interview of Raffaele.

52 Delitto di Perugia - Intervista esclusiva a Raffaele Sollecito: "Mi chiederanno scusa"
di Giangavino Sulas

http://www.oggi.it/in_edicola/

Excerpt from Corriere del Mezzogiorno.it

http://corrieredelmezzogiorno.corri...olce-ma-non-mi-ha-plagiato-190611480854.shtml

Greetings everyone...
I just returned from the beach -(watched some dolphins breach - my new avatar happened a few hours ago, saw a leapard shark feed, pelicans hunt by dive bombin' and a few bro's rode some fun waves, it sure is a bitchin' day in L.A.!), it's my b-day, and I'm sittin' here with a Jack+Coke reading about a guy whose innocence and unjust conviction I believe in 1000, yes 1000%. I have never before argued or publicly discussed on an internet forum anyones incarceration, but for some reason this case bothers the heck outta me. Every single day...

Thanks ChristianaHannah!
I just translated this thru Google, which gives me an idea of what Raffaele is saying:
Murder in Perugia, Sollecito is optimistic
"Amanda is sweet, but I was not plagiarized"
The former university giovinazzese confessed to the weekly
And attacks: 'I am innocent and I apologize "

"BARI - "If I am acquitted, thanks to those who tell you first? But by whom? Who should I say thank you after almost four years in prison as innocent? Many they should apologize. " He told the Weekly today, on sale from tomorrow (also www.oggi.it) Raffaele Sollecito, who is facing the appeals process for the murder of Meredith Kercher, in Perugia.

"I am innocent" - "Amanda has been dragged into this situation like me, in the same way. She is unrelated to the facts that we are charged as much as I am. The evening and the night Meredith was killed, she and I were at my house. We are not leaving. Never had suspicions about her, why not have them, "says Raffaele. Who rebels against the image that has been sewn on, that of a weak boy, who became brainwashed by Amanda ... "I think I'm an honest guy, good and sincere. In this ridiculous story the only person who has made "plagiarism" was Amanda (during interrogation, ed), but not his fault. Neither I nor Amanda are weak boys. Fragile resounding yes, with the pain in time ... and there dismembered Amanda is just a sweet girl, beautiful, sensitive, nice, sunny and a bit 'weird. Definitely special. Light years away from a personality queen bee ... Amanda and I write frequently for a few months. After our arrest reports had been broken. This drama has in some ways closer than ever. "

APPEAL - Sentenced to 25 years in first grade, Sollecito says he is optimistic for the outcome of the appeal: "I've always been optimistic. I always had faith that the truth would emerge. Today I am even more optimistic. " And the parents of Meredith does know: "How long I'll stay in jail and Amanda there will be no justice for us or for your daughter."

I hope that Judge Hellmann has the balls to set Raffaele and Amanda free!...

 

[simper]

I think PhantomWolf is saying that "reasonable doubt" is something that has a qualitative meaning, not a quantitative one, so it's not helpful to put a probability figure on it, particularly when probability is something that is so poorly understood by the average member of the public.

It's the difference between something unlikely and something implausible. After all, "unlikely" things happen every day.

But "reasonable doubt" must surely have a quantitative value even if most people regard it as having a qualitative meaning? A high proportion of miscarriages of justice are a result of people not understanding probability so I think for that reason putting a figure to reasonable doubt is extremely usefull.

"It's the difference between something unlikely and something implausible. After all, "unlikely" things happen every day."

The cot death miscarriages are a good example of convictions that happened because people didnt understand that highly unlikely things happen every day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark

 

[Danceme]

The plaid burberry bag is a laptop bag. You can google "plaid laptop bag" and find it in images.

 

[LondonJohn]

The plaid burberry bag is a laptop bag. You can google "plaid laptop bag" and find it in images.

No, the Burberry bag is not a laptop bag. One can indeed buy a Burberry laptop bag, and I presume that counterfeiters also make laptop bags using fake Burberry plaid; but the bag photographed in Filomena's room is most assuredly not a laptop bag. It bears no relation whatsoever to any of the Google images - except for in the pattern of the material. It's also demonstrably far too small to contain a laptop.

This is what the official Burberry laptop bags look like:

http://www.polyvore.com/burberry_slim_laptop_bag/thing?id=8533166

http://www.thebaglady.tv/2008/10/burberrybag_cha.html

By contrast, the bag with Burberry print in Filomena's room is a small handbag. It is not a laptop bag.

ETA: the quality of the piping and the strap stitching on the "Burberry" bag photographed in Filomena's room lead me to strongly believe that it was a counterfeit Burberry....

 

[Antony]

But "reasonable doubt" must surely have a quantitative value even if most people regard it as having a qualitative meaning? A high proportion of miscarriages of justice are a result of people not understanding probability so I think for that reason putting a figure to reasonable doubt is extremely usefull.

Useful to who? See your own example, of the Sally Clark case.

"It's the difference between something unlikely and something implausible. After all, "unlikely" things happen every day."

The cot death miscarriages are a good example of convictions that happened because people didnt understand that highly unlikely things happen every day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark

Yes, I've heard of this case, and "putting a figure to reasonable doubt" was decidedly useful to the prosecution. What they did was take the probability of 1 SIDS case in a family (1 in 8500), and claim the probability of 2 cases was 1 in 73 million (8500 x 8500) - based on the fallacy that the 2 deaths could be regarded as independent. (Of course nobody used the same logic to put a figure of extreme unlikelihood of a mother killing 2 of her own children.)

So I think your example is a strong argument for not trying to define "reasonable doubt" by a figure representing probability.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

I think PhantomWolf is saying that "reasonable doubt" is something that has a qualitative meaning, not a quantitative one, so it's not helpful to put a probability figure on it, particularly when probability is something that is so poorly understood by the average member of the public.

It's the difference between something unlikely and something implausible. After all, "unlikely" things happen every day.

Putting a number on things keeps people honest, and if people were rational they would be able to put a figure on "beyond reasonable doubt" anyway. Bayes' Theorem isn't just a good idea, it's the law. A rational belief comes inextricably linked with a p value.

 

[LondonJohn]

Useful to who? See your own example, of the Sally Clark case.



Yes, I've heard of this case, and "putting a figure to reasonable doubt" was decidedly useful to the prosecution. What they did was take the probability of 1 SIDS case in a family (1 in 8500), and claim the probability of 2 cases was 1 in 73 million (8500 x 8500) - based on the fallacy that the 2 deaths could be regarded as independent. (Of course nobody used the same logic to put a figure of extreme unlikelihood of a mother killing 2 of her own children.)

So I think your example is a strong argument for not trying to define "reasonable doubt" by a figure representing probability.

I agree - and this was a misleading comparison from the start. The definition of "beyond a reasonable doubt" does NOT mean something along the lines of "well, you're allowed to have a "reasonable" level of doubt about the defendant's guilt and still find them guilty, but any more than that and you should acquit". This is a massively common misconception of what "beyond a reasonable doubt" means.

In fact, "beyond a reasonable doubt" means "to the exclusion of all doubt that is based in reason", or "beyond all doubt that a reasonable person might have". In other words, the instruction to the juror is that (s)he must be certain in his/her own mind that the defendant is guilty, barring any and all doubts that are based in reason.

For example, an "unreasonable" doubt in the case of a man shooting another man in a bar (and seen by multiple witnesses aiming and firing the gun at close range) might be that by some extraordinary coincidence a) the defendant missed his target with his aimed shot from close range, while at the same time b) some other person, unseen by everyone in the bar, fired a gun at the very same moment, hitting the victim. This "doubt" would be generally viewed as unreasonable, and would therefore not constitute grounds for acquittal.

Essentially, the word "reasonable" is a very troublesome and oft-misinterpreted word in the instruction "beyond a reasonable doubt" - mainly owing to the manner in which that word is most commonly used nowadays. We say that England have a "reasonable chance" of winning the Rugby World Cup, or that it's "reasonably likely" that Greece will default on its state debt. But that's NOT what the word means in "beyond a reasonable doubt". Many judges both here and in many US states prefer to give juries instruction that they should be certain that the defendant committed the crime if they vote to convict - otherwise they should, in law, vote to acquit.

Therefore, if one is seeking to quantify the doctrine of "beyond a reasonable doubt", one should in fact be 100% certain of guilt before voting guilty. There should be literally no doubt (doubt, that is, which is based on reason).