Implications of Scottish Independence

[commandlinegamer]

Some things might survive the transition easier than others: we have separate education and legal systems. But what of the big questions:-

Monarchy: do we tell Brenda to take a hike?

Defence: do we retain common armed forces with England, Wales and Northern Ireland? If not how do we divvy up the nukes, subs, fighter jets, etc?

International standing: what happens to the UK seat on the Security Council of the UN. Do Scotland and the rest of the current UK become simply ordinary members?

Economics: Presumably we have our own central bank? Will we retain parity on tax rates with the rest of the UK to make trade easier?

Oil: who gets whatever is left of our North Sea reserves?

And most importantly: will we still be able to watch Doctor Who at the same time as the rest of Britain if we ditch the Beeb up north?

 

[Rolfe]

http://manifesto.votesnp.com/independence

This does seem a bit like reinventing the wheel, but carry on....

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

OK, I'll take one point. I'm no monarchist, but I agree that beginning independence while retaining the Queen as titular head of state (similar to Canada and Australia etc.) is worth a try. So long as it doesn't cost too much.

It might turn out to be OK, and we certainly won't get the chance to invite her back if we tell her to take a hike right now, so why not? We can always decide to vary our relationship with the monarchy at a later date if we so choose. I think there's a clause in the Declaration of Arbroath that allows this.

Rolfe.

 

[little grey rabbit]

If you just want to underdo the Act of Union then you are still a monarchy - as you started out as different kingdoms under the same monarch.

It seems that the last election in Canada saw the end of a viable Free Quebec movement, so the road to independence will be very difficult.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

What is it about having a UK parliament which hamstrings the economy of Scotland?

 

[stokes234]

One of the more unfortunate implications is that you may be condemning the rest of britain to tory governments for the foreseeable future. Apparently, england on its own has only ever voted in a labour government twice in the history of the party. Not sure about the england+wales stats, though wales can't really bail out of the union because we don't have any oil to fund us.

 

[Rolfe]

Well, I feel that democracy shouldn't be hindered. If England doesn't want a Conservative government, it only has to stop voting for the party. It's not up to Scotland to stand in the way of the wishes of the majority of English voters, and to use that as a reason for blocking independence is deeply dishonest in my opinion.

Rolfe.

 

[stokes234]

Well, I feel that democracy shouldn't be hindered. If England doesn't want a Conservative government, it only has to stop voting for the party. It's not up to Scotland to stand in the way of the wishes of the majority of English voters, and to use that as a reason for blocking independence is deeply dishonest in my opinion.

Rolfe.

My fear is that by scotland abandoning the uk, you turn the rest of the british democracy into the old "two wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner". It might be in the interest of the majority tory voters, but my worry is that those majority tory voters then exploit that majority to leave the poorer areas of britain to rot by removing welfare, public sector spending etc, while the relatively wealthy areas prosper from the lower taxes.

I'm not attempting to be dishonest here. I'm suggesting that it is possible that as a result of scottish independence, the remaining poorer areas of britain get screwed over. As a welshman, I fear that.

 

[Architect]

Time for the Welsh to vote accordingly then, sir, and make their way in the same direction.

 

[Rolfe]

My fear is that by scotland abandoning the uk, you turn the rest of the british democracy into the old "two wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner". It might be in the interest of the majority tory voters, but my worry is that those majority tory voters then exploit that majority to leave the poorer areas of britain to rot by removing welfare, public sector spending etc, while the relatively wealthy areas prosper from the lower taxes.

I'm not attempting to be dishonest here. I'm suggesting that it is possible that as a result of scottish independence, the remaining poorer areas of britain get screwed over. As a welshman, I fear that.

I'm sorry, but tough. You are suggesting that Scotland should sacrifice its own interests to provide a measure of protection for English voters - against themselves! We've had that from Labour for years. Oh, we can't have independence because it would be selling out the English working class.

If the English working class want a Labour government they can put down their Sun newspapers and stop voting Tory. Don't rely on someone else to do it for you.

Rolfe.

 

[Sunstealer]

Can the English have a vote for independence?

Can the English vote for Scottish independence?

Will the Big Yin (Billy Connolly) be president or king?

Jesting aside I don't think there are many implications as far as England or the rest of the UK are concerned anymore so than the UK is concerned by an independent Canada or Australia in the long run, or Sweden is by Finland or Germany is by Denmark. Scotland can still be part of the Commonwealth if it's people choose.

Borders and trade would continue as they are, as Scotland would remain in the EU. Scotland would have to pay it's way in defence if part of NATO and an agreement would have to be reached with regards Defence. Oil and gas fields would be divided by whatever coastal international standard or agreement is applicable. (Maybe the English will bomb Aberdeen given BP's interests!) If Scotland adopted the Euro it wouldn't be a biggie (try paying using a Scottish £10 note south of Carlisle!) and already have RBS/Clydesdale although there would need to be a bit of a fudge on the RBS issue. Infact keeping the pound sterling would seem a rational transitional if not long term measure. There would be a bit of a messy disentanglement (if that isn't an oxymoron) with regards to the State/Union/civil servants/structure/infrastructure, etc, but that's been done before in other less friendly break ups , but there isn't any reason why bi-lateral agreements couldn't be amicable on things such as defence etc - the US and Canada manage it. Not sure about electrical power, but Europe already has a distribution network whereby countries trade power so no problem there.

How did the breakup of Czechoslovakia go? The Czechs and Slovaks seemed to have managed it.

The BBC would just change it's name and there's already BBC Scotland etc. The union flag would have to change.

I think there would be more pressing implications north of the border. New political parties would have to be formed. Would the SNP actually continue in it's current form? Would there be an independent, completely Scottish Labour party? Having lived in Glasgow would there be a party wanting reunification? Would there be significant sectarian strife? (I doubt that last one btw) I'm trying to disregard the issue of North Sea oil/gas because it always clouds the debate.

Once independence is granted from the people, in what direction do they want to go?

For example would Scotland want it's own fishing rights or would it be bound by existing treaties?

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Some things might survive the transition easier than others: we have separate education and legal systems. But what of the big questions:-

Monarchy: do we tell Brenda to take a hike?

Defence: do we retain common armed forces with England, Wales and Northern Ireland? If not how do we divvy up the nukes, subs, fighter jets, etc?

International standing: what happens to the UK seat on the Security Council of the UN. Do Scotland and the rest of the current UK become simply ordinary members?

Economics: Presumably we have our own central bank? Will we retain parity on tax rates with the rest of the UK to make trade easier?

Oil: who gets whatever is left of our North Sea reserves?

And most importantly: will we still be able to watch Doctor Who at the same time as the rest of Britain if we ditch the Beeb up north?

Well personal opinion rather than legal argument but here goes...

1. I think we would need to have a referendum as to whether we wished to have the Queen as our HoS or go for the option of becoming a Republic. Personally I would favour the latter but doubt the majority would. I'm unsure constitutionally what immediate impact withdrawing from the Union would have on the Queen's status.

2. We would need to have a separate Scottish Defence Force. We could not legitimately claim to be an independent nation if we didn't I think. I would expect to get our fair share of the assets of the Army, Navy and Air Force or appropriate compensation for them from the remainder of the UK. The interesting debate will be what is fair. I would also hope we would scale back our involvement in overseas conflicts to something approaching zero and get rid of Trident etc. I wouldn't see an issue with having British troops continue to be stationed in Scotland for strategic or practical reasons.

3. Couldn't really care less what happens to the UK seat on the UN Councils. There would still be a UK just Scotland wouldn't be in it so I don't think it would necessarily mean they lose any standing. At least not immediately. Scotland would become an 'ordinary member'

4. Economics - probably the thorniest issue. I would hope we would take a breath before deciding anything. Certainly wouldn't jump straight into the Euro at this juncture. Think we should have a very close look at what the Swiss are doing and see if we can learn something. I would hope we could make our taxes lower than England to attract people and investment north, it's going to be tough for us to do anything significantly different from the rest of the UK higher or lower though. I think having higher taxes than the UK would be a disaster for Scotland.

5. Who gets it? We do. At least the bits that are in our waters. And we get the Crown Estates and the money from offshore renewables too. And fishing rights. And everything else.

6. I hope BBC Scotland doesn't get broken up but simply renamed. It really is a wonderful service. STV on the other hand...not so much. Hopefully we can take their license away.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

It might be in the interest of the majority tory voters, but my worry is that those majority tory voters then exploit that majority to leave the poorer areas of britain to rot by removing welfare, public sector spending etc, while the relatively wealthy areas prosper from the lower taxes.

I'm afraid that is what the majority of the country seem to want though. Your voice is a minority.

Given that the choices are limited but fairly clear:

1. Put up with it.
2. Try to change it from the inside.
3. Try to extract your area from it.
4. Find somewhere to live that better reflects your ideologies.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

What is it about having a UK parliament which hamstrings the economy of Scotland?

Anyone like to answer the above question? I'd have thought it would be easy given the number of times SNP propaganda implies being part of the UK holds back the economy of Scotland.

Would Scottish people still vote for independence if it was predicted to damage their economy? I.e., what value does independence from the rest of the UK have in and of itself? 1% of GDP? 10%?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

<snip>

5. Who gets it? We do. At least the bits that are in our waters. And we get the Crown Estates and the money from offshore renewables too. And fishing rights. And everything else.

In. Your. Dreams.

6. I hope BBC Scotland doesn't get broken up but simply renamed. It really is a wonderful service.

<snip>

I'd imagine the BBC in Scotland would either be scaled down or become a subscription service.

 

[commandlinegamer]

I'm afraid that is what the majority of the country seem to want though. Your voice is a minority.

Given that the choices are limited but fairly clear:

1. Put up with it.
2. Try to change it from the inside.
3. Try to extract your area from it.
4. Find somewhere to live that better reflects your ideologies.

Which is why in another thread I semi-seriously suggested that Scots offer English regions the option to join us.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Anyone like to answer the above question? I'd have thought it would be easy given the number of times SNP propaganda implies being part of the UK holds back the economy of Scotland.

Would Scottish people still vote for independence if it was predicted to damage their economy? I.e., what value does independence from the rest of the UK have in and of itself? 1% of GDP? 10%?

Well I would have thought the issue is lack of control of our economy and the inability to allocate our resources where we see fit in important areas.

Take for example the recent imposition of additional taxes on oil companies. This will have a disproportionate impact on the economy of the North East of Scotland. This may well be balanced out at a UK level by benefits elsewhere but they are unlikely to accrue disproportionately in Scotland.

Take another example of offshore wind energy in Scotland. I know Alex Salmond has been trying desperately to bring a large wind turbine manufacturer to Scotland and he's been struggling. Part of the reason for the struggle is that the UK government would prefer to see these operations sited elsewhere and part of the reason is that we don't have any powers to vary our tax structures to encourage businesses to set up in Scotland.

We would like to build on our strengths as a green economy with expertise in renewable energy but we aren't and haven't been able to take control of things like feed-in tariffs that are necessary to promote it.

These are just some examples. Every area and industry will have their own examples.

It's hard to put a number of the extent to which Scotland is hamstrung by being part of the UK because we really have no idea of what we might be capable of given control of our own destiny.

Economies are dynamic things. I don't think it's sensible to say 'Independence would cost you 1% of GDP is it worth it' or to say 'Independednce would gain you 2% of GDP let's go for it'. What you gain is control. If it means you are worse off short term then it also puts the power in your hands to address those problems.

There are many small countries in Europe, many of them situated right next to large countries. How often have you heard citizens of Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic or whoever say 'I think we should hand our sovereignty and control of our economy over to Germany because we'd be better off'?

It's an argument that makes no sense to me that somehow Scotland is better off letting someone else make our decisions for us.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

or become a subscription service.

It already is

As for your 'In Your Dreams' comment. We have the nuclear subs. I think if you want them back you better be a bit more bloody accommodating

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Which is why in another thread I semi-seriously suggested that Scots offer English regions the option to join us.

It's an interesting thought experiment anyway.

Would Scots welcome northern England into the New Caledonian Republic?

My initial reaction is that I wouldn't.

 

[Rolfe]

I think Scotland gave up trying to assimilate the north of England somewhere around the 14th century.

Rolfe.