No Fly zones over Libya?

[Caustic Logic]

Quackdaffis' G-2 Galeb was threatning civilians more than the rebel MiG. It's called combined arms. Deal with it

McHrozni

Could be. I see that craft does/can have machine guns and bombs, and was supposedly supporting ground missions (with recon or weapons I don't think we know), so surveillance pure and simple wasn't the right word.

Anyway, it's clear the slant going on here. One was threatening the other side in the civil war (the Quackdaffi regime), and the other was just targeting the other side in a civil war (the civilians we're helping to conquer Libya). One is overmatched on the ground, but the other is in turn far overmatched in/from the air, steadily changing the ground situation.

Therefore, I really think all this "civilian" drivel is getting a wee bit old. Cease-fire and no-fly should apply to all who have the power to shoot or fly, ideally. Including the uber-crusader good guy outsiders (team us). Ideally, mind you.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Slightly better jet comparison graphic.

I can see how Mig-23 is possible, but I doubt it. The inner wing notch could be there at this resolution, or not. The "shoulder" width could go either way. to the 23 or 27 (it was rotated a bit, so this might be deceptive).

But structurally, the 23's wings seen a bit long, relative to the jet that crashed, while its horiz. tail-fins are a tad too short. The 27 fits both quite well. And the apparent "shoulder spike" (I know, fancy technical language) visible on the right side fits only with the 27 (again, rotated so app. out of place). Maybe an artifact, something broken in the shooting. But seeing how the wings and tailfin fit, I think that "spike" just clarifies this is a Mig-27 or something built exactly the same.

And for some reason, no one on the rebel side has acknowledged that yet. Some insisted it was a Mirage, and not any Mig. Others have said it was a Mig-23, but none have given the right model. Strange.

 

[McHrozni]

Could be. I see that craft does/can have machine guns and bombs, and was supposedly supporting ground missions (with recon or weapons I don't think we know), so surveillance pure and simple wasn't the right word.

Let's assume it was there purely for surveillance and nothing else. It therefore carried images of defences of Misrata, that would allow Quackdaffis' forces to conduct an offensive in the city, possibly taking it, or at least advancing a few blocks, endangering civilians.
If it was used in a ground support capacity, the situation is even clearer.

The rebel MiG, on the other hand, just took off and wasn't a threat to anything in any capacity, if it landed immediately. Which it did. There was no reason whatsoever to shoot it down.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

And for some reason, no one on the rebel side has acknowledged that yet. Some insisted it was a Mirage, and not any Mig. Others have said it was a Mig-23, but none have given the right model. Strange.

Why is this in any way relevant? It's pretty clear it was a rebel plane. The rebels even admitted it was their own plane. Why does it matter if it was a MiG-23, MiG-27 or Mirage F1? We know all three planes were present in the Libyan military and there is no reason to suspect it came from out of the country, regardless of it's type. Is there any other reason to nitpick about it's model?

McHrozni

 

[Caustic Logic]

Why is this in any way relevant? It's pretty clear it was a rebel plane. The rebels even admitted it was their own plane. Why does it matter if it was a MiG-23, MiG-27 or Mirage F1? We know all three planes were present in the Libyan military and there is no reason to suspect it came from out of the country, regardless of it's type. Is there any other reason to nitpick about it's model?

McHrozni

It may well not mean anything, but I find it odd that the rebel side responsible for that jet is less able than I am to find out just what model it was. I sometimes hold oddities like this aside to see if they make any more sense in light of further info.

 

[Darth Rotor]

IIRC, the Mig 27 is the Mig 23 adapted to the Ground Attack role ... but it's been a few years since I was in the loop on that antiquated aircraft.

 

[McHrozni]

It may well not mean anything, but I find it odd that the rebel side responsible for that jet is less able than I am to find out just what model it was. I sometimes hold oddities like this aside to see if they make any more sense in light of further info.

Two days ago I red in a BBC article that a would-be rebel managed to shoot himself to death while trying to unjam his gun. Not being able to figure out the exact type of the aircraft doesn't seem to be particularily far off from that.

McHrozni

 

[Caustic Logic]

IIRC, the Mig 27 is the Mig 23 adapted to the Ground Attack role ... but it's been a few years since I was in the loop on that antiquated aircraft.

Interesting semi-reliable tidbit. It appears to be modified enough it's a different jet, shape-wise. I would guess shorter wings and a bit more tailfin help in thicker air? Whatever this jet was doing, it seems to be ground attack. And by what you say, they used a model that was ideal for that. But if they knew that when deciding, it hasn't gotten through to the public that I know of. They come across looking clueless.

The other thing about this jet is who shot it down. When it was briefly presumed to be a government craft, it was also presumed rebels on the ground had hit it. But the rebels said, along with confirming it as one of their Mirages or a Mig-23, that Gaddafi shot it down. But I still suspect it was friendly fire, or even some unlucky "celebratory gunfire." (kidding on that one).

ETA: Or someone trying to unjam an anti-aircraft gun.

 

[McHrozni]

Interesting semi-reliable tidbit. It appears to be modified enough it's a different jet, shape-wise. I would guess shorter wings and a bit more tailfin help in thicker air? Whatever this jet was doing, it seems to be ground attack. And by what you say, they used a model that was ideal for that. But if they knew that when deciding, it hasn't gotten through to the public that I know of. They come across looking clueless.

The rebels are clueless for the most part. It's not an organized force by any stretch of imagination.

The other thing about this jet is who shot it down. When it was briefly presumed to be a government craft, it was also presumed rebels on the ground had hit it. But the rebels said, along with confirming it as one of their Mirages or a Mig-23, that Gaddafi shot it down. But I still suspect it was friendly fire, or even some unlucky "celebratory gunfire." (kidding on that one).

ETA: Or someone trying to unjam an anti-aircraft gun.

The rebels stated they shot it down by accident. I don't see why we shouldn't take their word for it, since they had no reason to falsely claim they have done so when they haven't and had a reason to lie and claim it wasn't them if it was (in order to present an image of competence).

McHrozni

 

[Darth Rotor]

Interesting semi-reliable tidbit.

I didn't want to, but I went to wikipedia. My memory is good enough.

The Mikoyan MiG-27 (NATO reporting name "Flogger-D/J") is a variable-geometry ground-attack aircraft, originally built by the Mikoyan design bureau in the Soviet Union and later license-produced in India by Hindustan Aeronautics as the Bahadur ("Valiant"). It is based on the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 fighter aircraft, but optimized for the air-to-ground role.

Unlike the MiG-23, the MiG-27 did not see widespread use outside Russia, as most countries opted for the MiG-23BN and Sukhoi Su-25 instead.

It currently only remains in service with the Indian, Kazakh and Sri Lankan Air Forces in the ground attack role. All Russian and Ukrainian examples have now been retired.

What you might be seeing is SU-25 or MiG23BN. IIRC, Muhamar had some Su-25's in his Air Order of Battle.

 

[Caustic Logic]

I didn't want to, but I went to wikipedia. My memory is good enough.

What you might be seeing is SU-25 or MiG23BN. IIRC, Muhamar had some Su-25's in his Air Order of Battle.

The 27 seems a rare model then, and not the thing to expect. Huh. It does look just like one, and someone had IDd it that way to the Telegraph. But anything else that looks just the same. I did another image search. The SU-25 is way off in most ways. (and I'm not even considering size here, just shape). The Mig-23BN, image I found, is actually a great fit. Other than the "shoulder spike" (or is that a missile?) Why would they make a Mig-23 shaped so different from the other and just like the 27, I wonder?

Anyway, no fly zone, more bombing now, yadda yadda...

 

[Darth Rotor]

The 27 seems a rare model then, and not the thing to expect. Huh. It does look just like one, and someone had IDd it that way to the Telegraph. But anything else that looks just the same. I did another image search. The SU-25 is way off in most ways. (and I'm not even considering size here, just shape). The Mig-23BN, image I found, is actually a great fit. Other than the "shoulder spike" (or is that a missile?) Why would they make a Mig-23 shaped so different from the other and just like the 27, I wonder?

Anyway, no fly zone, more bombing now, yadda yadda...

If memory serves, it was a bit like the way various mods of various US aircraft had slightly different shapes. The 23 was meant to be either dual role or ground attack ... but it's been so many years, I can't say with the certainty I had in 1986 or so, when I was very up to date on such things.

If you look at a MH-60S and a MH-60R helicopters, they are both basically the S-70 airframe, but quite a lot is different. Mission driven variation.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Just an update, it seems the rebels are gaining ground on pro-Gaddafi troops in Misrata:

In recent days, the rebels' drive to push Gaddafi's men out of the city centre gained momentum.

Rebels took control of the main hospital, the last position of Libyan troops in the centre of Misrata, said a city resident. Throughout Sunday, government forces fired more than 70 rockets at the city, he said. Another Misrata rebel said there had been 300-400 Gaddafi fighters in the main hospital and in the surrounding area that were trying to melt into the local population.

"They are trying to run away," he said of the soldiers. "They are pretending to be civilians. They are putting on sportswear."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/uk...ZHm87ABpW6SwERE9A?docId=N0078411303510477046A

I heard a NATO commander saying that the siege of Misrata was equivalent to a knife fight in a phone booth.

But good news here!

 

[egslim]

Just an update, it seems the rebels are gaining ground on pro-Gaddafi troops in Misrata:

And 48h later a new report:

MISRATA, Libya—Col. Moammar Gadhafi's forces launched a surprise ground and artillery attack Tuesday against this city's port, threatening Misrata's sole lifeline to the world just two days after rebels drove the last government forces out of the city.

Seems they were merely regrouping.

 

[Darth Rotor]

And 48h later a new report:
Seems they were merely regrouping.

Lovely weather for a tennis match this week, eh?

So the government has returned service from the rebels, and it looks to be hard shot down the line ...

 

[BeAChooser]

So the government has returned service from the rebels, and it looks to be hard shot down the line ...

Now the question is what will be the return service for NATO's attempt on Gadhafi.

What's that old saying about killing kings?

 

[egslim]

Now the question is what will be the return service for NATO's attempt on Gadhafi.

What's that old saying about killing kings?

If Gadaffi is smart about it, not much. The only way he can win is if he lasts longer than NATO is willing to continue the operation. That means he should avoid provoking NATO.

 

[BeAChooser]

So how's Obama's Libyan war going? Hmmmm?

And why no outrage from Obama over what's happening in Syria? Afterall, the Syrian army is brutalizing civilians, shelling residential neighborhoods with artillery and tanks, and arresting thousands. More civilians have been killed to date by Syrian security forces than were killed by Ghaddafi before our intervention. Human rights groups say as many as 750 have been killed. And the last time the world did nothing in Syria (in 1982), Assad killed 10000-20000 people. So it's not like this guy doesn't have a *history*. Shouldn't Obama be more concerned? Or is it just politically inconvenient? Or is Assad on the same side as the rebels in Libya and that explains the difference in policy? Hmmmmmm?

 

[Darth Rotor]

So how's Obama's Libyan war going? Hmmmm?

And why no outrage from Obama over what's happening in Syria?

As I understand the declension of personal political pronouns on this one, since the Arab League isn't kvetching about what's going on in Syria, and not asking the UN to do something about it, the White House isn't offering up any support to the downtrodden in Syria.

(That Syria is now and again a proxy and lacky for Iran has, of course, nothing to do with all this ... )

 

[geni]

So how's Obama's Libyan war going? Hmmmm?

Pretty good today. The Misrata rebels were able to make some advances and Gaddafi's forces were not able to withdraw in good order.

Which means either the rebel advance was well coordinated which even for the Misrata lot seems unlikely or Gaddafis logistics and C&C systems are starting to crack.

On other other hand NATO appears to have forgotten the lessions of the Biafran war and the sri lankan civil war and failed to take out slow flying prop driven planes.