The Massei/Mignini Conspiracy Theory

[platonov]

Ah, I remember the good old days when Alt+F4 was arguing

<snip>

Funny that , when I point out the many errors in your arguments you are silent.

Now you want to discuss Alt+F4 posts.

Not kosher

 

[platonov]

JREF 'code' in on conspiracy

And I am betting a snarky response to this comment will be forthcoming soon thereafter.

I posted it 2 hours ago (its only visible now)

 

[RoseMontague]

Ah, I remember the good old days when Alt+F4 was arguing until she was blue in the face the exact opposite. According to her there simply wasn't enough time between 9:05 or so when Meredith probably got home, and 10:00pm or so by which time Rudy had probably left the building, for him to rape and murder her, search her room for stuff, wash himself off partially in the shower and do everything else he had to have done.

According to her, the pro-innocence case was obviously false because there wasn't enough time for Rudy to do everything.

Now we've got Platonov arguing that the pro-innocence case is obviously false because there's too much time there and Rudy hasn't done enough to fill it up.

Now I'm not arguing that Platonov is responsible for whatever Alt+F4 makes up, or vice versa. They are both their own people and responsible only for the silliness of the ideas they themselves articulate.

However I don't think you could ask for a better demonstration of confirmation bias in action than the fact that each of them have separately convinced themselves that their time estimate must be correct, just on the basis that it suits their prejudices to believe it.

It's good that you bring this up. I believe the strategy here of those that believe in guilt (with the possible exception of a very few posters) is simply to attack the arguments of those that believe in innocence. It doesn't matter if one says there is not enough time and another too much time the point is simply to disagree with and disparage anything said by someone on the side of innocence.

 

[platonov]

It's good that you bring this up. I believe the strategy here of those that believe in guilt (with the possible exception of a very few posters) is simply to attack the arguments of those that believe in innocence. It doesn't matter if one says there is not enough time and another too much time the point is simply to disagree with and disparage anything said by someone on the side of innocence.

Really.

Funny that , when I point out the many errors in your arguments you are silent.

Now you want to discuss Alt+F4 posts.

Not kosher

How

 

[platonov]

Instead of backing up Kevin Lowe's avoidance (for obvious reasons) of my arguments ........

Deal with this post from above - if you have anything other than 'could' to respond to one of the several points.

As has been explained several times...

It is really difficult to conceive a ToD of 9.05 or 9.15, as per KL & LJ, and now you.

AND correlate this with RG hanging around till 10.13 *

AND yet failing to wipe his prints

OR flush

OR check the other rooms for cash/ jewelry

OR why he fled straight from the bedroom with blood on his shoes.

OR where the phones were between 10.13 & 12.15

AND Leaving aside all the other evidence - the staged break-in for example.

* Even if we allow that those pings were made as the phone left the cottage which is not what the evidence shows.

NOR indeed why the defence originally went for a 9.30 - 10.30 ToD. Unless both RG (by hanging around for an hour or 3, to cast suspicion on AK and RS, then leaving in a hurrrry) and the defence are in on the conspiracy

 

[Kaosium]

As has been explained several times...

It is really difficult to conceive a ToD of 9.05 or 9.15, as per KL & LJ, and now you.

AND correlate this with RG hanging around till 10.13 *

AND yet failing to wipe his prints

OR flush

OR check the other rooms for cash/ jewelry

OR why he fled straight from the bedroom with blood on his shoes.

OR where the phones were between 10.13 & 12.15

AND Leaving aside all the other evidence - the staged break-in for example.

* Even if we allow that those pings were made as the phone left the cottage which is not what the evidence shows.

NOR indeed why the defence originally went for a 9.30 - 10.30 ToD.

Unless both RG (by hanging around for an hour or 3, to cast suspicion on AK and RS, then leaving in a hurrrry) and the defence are in on the conspiracy

I will allow that, Platonov, I agree that Rudy being there for a hour and a half (~8:40-10:10 PM or so) and Meredith being attacked around 9:00 PM and officially dying around 9:15-9:30 raises some questions, notably the ones you've brought up. However, being of rational mind I try to figure out what piece of the puzzle could be missing, rather that accept an entirely implausible scenario imagined by a judge forced to due to his leniency to cobble together a story from a kook prosecutor relying on an utterly incompetent 'investigation' and primitive forensic technicians.

One thing I've often wondered about is why does anyone assume just because he didn't make a mess that Rudy Guede didn't actually look in all the rooms for cash/jewelry? A number of times I've seen it posted that because the drawers weren't all opened up and things strewn everywhere that means Rudy didn't even look. I dunno about anyone else, but were I robbing a place I would take care not to disturb anything unnecessarily. For one thing it might make noise, for another it might leave more traces, and all things considered I'd rather the occupants thought some stupid kid threw a rock through their window until they noticed things missing, at which time they might not even call the police; perhaps either not putting it together confidently enough or having resigned themselves to it at that point. Thus Rudy could well have given those rooms the once over, not found anything especially fungible and valuable enough to be worth stealing, and then taken his dump. After that, Meredith came home and he became panicked and less careful, but before that he was trying to avoid making it especially noticeable, outside the rock.

The dump in the toilet is not especially relevant in my view. Some people forget to flush, and he wouldn't necessarily remember later. The fact the footprints lead straight from the bedroom to the door suggests the last thing he might have done is gone back to survey his 'work' and then covered her and fled in horror. Perhaps he had more planned but just couldn't stick around and fled, I can see that happening.

My understanding of the phones is that the 10:13 PM connection was to a tower that didn't serve the cottage that time of day generally, and required the phone to be practically held outside the window to make a connection. I don't know what you're referring to regarding the phones between 10:13 and 12:15, but I'm sure you'll eventually not tell me in your imitable style.

However something occurred to me, what was the route between Rudy's place and where he went dancing to attempt to establish an 'alibi?' He might have had the phones with him in hopes of selling them quickly and had indeed fled the cottage at ~9:30 but on his way to the disco it rang and he threw them then? What time did the woman he almost ran down say it was again?

ETA: Alessandra Formica apparently said it was about 10:40, it was actually her boyfriend that was bumped into, and they saw the people around the broken down car calling, presumably the tow truck. Hrm...that doesn't add up either, but compared to Massei's timeline anything looks good. That also might not have been Rudy, of course.

 

[PhantomWolf]

Who needs forensics (or other evidence) - she was wearing her 'jacket'

Good way not to convince people that you are correct and AK is guilty.

 

[Dan O.]

*The evidence shows the phone could have been at Merediths's and also could have been on the way to where they were eventually dumped.

I've already shown that SMS service doesn't need to use the best tower for its location but will use the last tower that the phone had registered with if it is still able to connect. I'd want to do some more research to verify this but GPRS may also use the last working tower and not register to a new tower until messages stop getting through. This would mean that the phones could already be in the garden at or before 22:13.

 

[tsig]

I will allow that, Platonov, I agree that Rudy being there for a hour and a half (~8:40-10:10 PM or so) and Meredith being attacked around 9:00 PM and officially dying around 9:15-9:30 raises some questions, notably the ones you've brought up. However, being of rational mind I try to figure out what piece of the puzzle could be missing, rather that accept an entirely implausible scenario imagined by a judge forced to due to his leniency to cobble together a story from a kook prosecutor relying on an utterly incompetent 'investigation' and primitive forensic technicians. One thing I've often wondered about is why does anyone assume just because he didn't make a mess that Rudy Guede didn't actually look in all the rooms for cash/jewelry? A number of times I've seen it posted that because the drawers weren't all opened up and things strewn everywhere that means Rudy didn't even look. I dunno about anyone else, but were I robbing a place I would take care not to disturb anything unnecessarily. For one thing it might make noise, for another it might leave more traces, and all things considered I'd rather the occupants thought some stupid kid threw a rock through their window until they noticed things missing, at which time they might not even call the police; perhaps either not putting it together confidently enough or having resigned themselves to it at that point. Thus Rudy could well have given those rooms the once over, not found anything especially fungible and valuable enough to be worth stealing, and then taken his dump. After that, Meredith came home and he became panicked and less careful, but before that he was trying to avoid making it especially noticeable, outside the rock.

The dump in the toilet is not especially relevant in my view. Some people forget to flush, and he wouldn't necessarily remember later. The fact the footprints lead straight from the bedroom to the door suggests the last thing he might have done is gone back to survey his 'work' and then covered her and fled in horror. Perhaps he had more planned but just couldn't stick around and fled, I can see that happening.

My understanding of the phones is that the 10:13 PM connection was to a tower that didn't serve the cottage that time of day generally, and required the phone to be practically held outside the window to make a connection. I don't know what you're referring to regarding the phones between 10:13 and 12:15, but I'm sure you'll eventually not tell me in your imitable style.

However something occurred to me, what was the route between Rudy's place and where he went dancing to attempt to establish an 'alibi?' He might have had the phones with him in hopes of selling them quickly and had indeed fled the cottage at ~9:30 but on his way to the disco it rang and he threw them then? What time did the woman he almost ran down say it was again?

ETA: Alessandra Formica apparently said it was about 10:40, it was actually her boyfriend that was bumped into, and they saw the people around the broken down car calling, presumably the tow truck. Hrm...that doesn't add up either, but compared to Massei's timeline anything looks good. That also might not have been Rudy, of course.

Yep, nothing but pure rationality there.

 

[Kaosium]

Yep, nothing but pure rationality there.

How would you describe them then? I'd say the evidence suggests Mignini is a kook, as you can read about in the links in the OP. The 'investigation' can be charitably described as incompetent, because there's sure worse words I could use. They definitely arrested the wrong guy in the first instance, unless you still think Patrick Lumumba was involved, and it took them two weeks to admit to it even with people coming forward within days to proffer an alibi and the forensics showing nothing of any of them at the scene. The number of mindless errors are legion. Like misattributing the shoeprints to Raffaele because they couldn't spot the pattern, failing to canvass the area, and getting almost nothing right in their statements to the press.

The Scientifica Polizia? Have you seen what they did to that place? Draca puts it 'Dumb and Dumber trash a crime scene!' and that's the best description I've seen. They let the towels rot, they just left the purse and jacket there with blood all over them, and I'm sure you've seen the video of the bra clasp 'collection.'

Even if you think them guilty, you ought to realize the police bungled the 'investigation' and 'evidence' collection so badly there's little chance they won't be acquitted in the end. What to you would be a 'rational' way of describing their performance?

 

[Draca]

Oggi Sep 2009 - CCTV Rudy Guede

Oggi Sep 2009
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.php?uo=dSQmRIlC78sRlil3Iid+J4h4l5k2TGxc

Here's an Oggi article from Sep 2009 that gives times for Rudy Guede arriving twice on the CCTV camera. The first time stamp is 19:41 which with the slow clock would actually be 19:51 - 53. The second time stamp is at 20:10 which would be 20:20 - 20:22. There is something about 19:51 in the article but I don't know what it says? I would love a translation.....

Rudy arrives first at 7:51 p.m.
Then arrives again at 8:20 p.m.

Is there any film of him going back the other way between those times?

Rudy Guede said he was there at 8:30 p.m. I don't know how long it would take him to climb in through the window, but if looks like he may have been at the flat for about 20 minutes before Meredith Kercher came home.

Why do you think he would leave and then come back ??? Any ideas?

 

[LondonJohn]

You'd think that the fact she was still wearing her jacket would have been a big red flag to the police that their TOD was out. For what valid reason would she still have been wearing her jacket inside two and a half hours after getting home? Everything points towards her dying very shortly after 9pm.

Ah: the "official guilter comeback" to this one is that the cottage was cold the following morning, meaning that it was cold the night before, meaning that Meredith kept her jacket on for over two hours after getting home in order to keep warm.

Of course, the objective, rational reason why the cottage was cold is that Meredith had no time to put any heating on, since she was most likely confronted within a minute or two of coming home. And that's the same reason why she hadn't yet taken off her jacket. And, in addition, we know that she'd borrowed an academic book which she'd said (IIRC) she would return the following day. Yet this book was still in her bag when her body was discovered the following day. She appears to have made no attempt to read the book in this supposed two-hours-plus that she was lounging around, and nor did she use her computer, nor did she call her mother back after the 8.56pm call didn't even connect to the network, nor did she text any UK friends (as was her custom).

Meredith Kercher was confronted shortly after she returned home at just before 9pm, and she was dead by 9.30pm. That's where all the available evidence leads.

 

[LondonJohn]

Oggi Sep 2009
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.php?uo=dSQmRIlC78sRlil3Iid+J4h4l5k2TGxc

Here's an Oggi article from Sep 2009 that gives times for Rudy Guede arriving twice on the CCTV camera. The first time stamp is 19:41 which with the slow clock would actually be 19:51 - 53. The second time stamp is at 20:10 which would be 20:20 - 20:22. There is something about 19:51 in the article but I don't know what it says? I would love a translation.....

Rudy arrives first around 7:51 p.m.
Then arrives again at 8:20 p.m.

Is there any film of him going back the other way between those times?

Rudy Guede said he was there at 8:30 p.m. I don't know how long it would take him to climb in through the window, but if looks like he may have been in the flat for about 20 minutes before Meredith Kercher came home.

Why do you think he would leave and then come back ??? Any ideas?

I think he left to get something to eat (the kebab). He may have originally gone to the house to see if the boys below were in - either to shoot hoops or smoke week. But maybe he left when he saw that nobody was home in either part of the house.

Perhaps while he was having his kebab, he formulated the plan to break in to the house, seeing as nobody was home. He couldn't easily have broken into the boys' house, since there were bars on all the windows and doors, so maybe the girls' cottage was his only option.

If he returned to the cottage at around 8.20-8.25, I suspect he'd have spent a good 5-10 minutes casing the house, and a further 5 minutes or so walking round to find his optimum point of entry. If he threw the rock at around 8.40, I think he'd then have retreated to the undergrowth for another 5 minutes or so, to check whether there was any reaction from inside the house. So by the time he was actually inside the house, it would have likely been around 8.45-8.50pm. If he had an urge to open his bowels shortly after getting into the house, this means he would have been in the bathroom at around 8.50-9.00pm - exactly the time when Meredith arrived home.

 

[tsig]

How would you describe them then? I'd say the evidence suggests Mignini is a kook, as you can read about in the links in the OP. The 'investigation' can be charitably described as incompetent, because there's sure worse words I could use. They definitely arrested the wrong guy in the first instance, unless you still think Patrick Lumumba was involved, and it took them two weeks to admit to it even with people coming forward within days to proffer an alibi and the forensics showing nothing of any of them at the scene. The number of mindless errors are legion. Like misattributing the shoeprints to Raffaele because they couldn't spot the pattern, failing to canvass the area, and getting almost nothing right in their statements to the press.

The Scientifica Polizia? Have you seen what they did to that place? Draca puts it 'Dumb and Dumber trash a crime scene!' and that's the best description I've seen. They let the towels rot, they just left the purse and jacket there with blood all over them, and I'm sure you've seen the video of the bra clasp 'collection.'

Even if you think them guilty, you ought to realize the police bungled the 'investigation' and 'evidence' collection so badly there's little chance they won't be acquitted in the end. What to you would be a 'rational' way of describing their performance?

The defense attorneys on the appeal that is taking place right now don't seem to be arguing this.

 

[Kaosium]

The defense attorneys on the appeal that is taking place right now don't seem to be arguing this.

Yeah, they are, read between the lines of the appeal.

They're just doing it in formal Italian legalese.

 

[RoseMontague]

Yeah, they are, read between the lines of the appeal.

They're just doing it in formal Italian legalese.

I agree and I pointed out several examples of this on the main thread. Rather than directly accuse LE of misconduct or incompetence, they point it out in a way that would lead the judge to make an obvious conclusion or call for further investigation.

 

[RoseMontague]

I've already shown that SMS service doesn't need to use the best tower for its location but will use the last tower that the phone had registered with if it is still able to connect. I'd want to do some more research to verify this but GPRS may also use the last working tower and not register to a new tower until messages stop getting through. This would mean that the phones could already be in the garden at or before 22:13.

Yes,
Raffaele's appeal points out that signal strength is not the only factor in determining which tower handles the call.

(the defense consultant) · carried out field strength measurements of the signals emitted by the cell phone network, taking care to also acquire the elements transmitted by the cell phone network which condition the choice of which cell will be connected with, with reference to the selection criteria adopted by the cell phones (objective criteria fixed by binding Technical Regulations – ETSI Standards – knowledge of which was given to the Court, and which clearly indicate that the choice of cell is not solely a function of the field strength measured by the cell phone);

This is worth looking into, imo.

 

[Kaosium]

I agree and I pointed out several examples of this on the main thread. Rather than directly accuse LE of misconduct or incompetence, they point it out in a way that would lead the judge to make an obvious conclusion or call for further investigation.

I suppose they know how to avoid calunnia charges. I can't say I care much for that particular 'custom.' Unless you end up with a broken spine when they try to say you 'suicided,' there appears to be minimal oversight and just suggesting impropriety in court can get ~6 years added to you sentence.

I suppose the latter is better than the broken spine.

 

[Kaosium]

I think he left to get something to eat (the kebab). He may have originally gone to the house to see if the boys below were in - either to shoot hoops or smoke week. But maybe he left when he saw that nobody was home in either part of the house.

Perhaps while he was having his kebab, he formulated the plan to break in to the house, seeing as nobody was home. He couldn't easily have broken into the boys' house, since there were bars on all the windows and doors, so maybe the girls' cottage was his only option.

If he returned to the cottage at around 8.20-8.25, I suspect he'd have spent a good 5-10 minutes casing the house, and a further 5 minutes or so walking round to find his optimum point of entry. If he threw the rock at around 8.40, I think he'd then have retreated to the undergrowth for another 5 minutes or so, to check whether there was any reaction from inside the house. So by the time he was actually inside the house, it would have likely been around 8.45-8.50pm. If he had an urge to open his bowels shortly after getting into the house, this means he would have been in the bathroom at around 8.50-9.00pm - exactly the time when Meredith arrived home.

There's something else I've been contemplating, let me run it past you. What if Rudy 'knew' through his contacts with the boys downstairs that most of, if not all, the girls would be gone most that night? They had Meredith tending the pot plants, thus might have discussed with her the plans of the others over the holiday, and known Amanda was staying with Raffaele. Rudy happens to pick this up from them, perhaps on the court when they're discussing their own plans, and decides to pay the cottage a visit as it's a pretty good target at that moment.

Thus Rudy might be expecting that Meredith would be gone longer, as I recall she called it an early night as she was still kinda recovering from the night before. Therefore he wasn't really in a hurry when he got there thus helped himself to some refreshment and relieved himself when Meredith unexpectedly came home and tragedy ensued. Afterward, knowing that none of the other girls would be home, he has no reason to be in a particular hurry either, but eventually goes back into the murder room and gets spooked and flees in panic.

 

[Katody Matrass]

*The evidence shows the phone could have been at Merediths's and also could have been on the way to where they were eventually dumped.

Exactly. This simple fact dismantles P's argument completely.
Have a nice Saturday, people