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Post-revolution polls in Egypt

Undesired Walrus

Penultimate Amazing
Undesired Walrus
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Apr 10, 2007
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Turns out that contrary to most people's fears, the secular Wafd party would emerge as the most popular party if elections were held today, gaining 23% of the vote. The Muslim brotherhood would get 12%.

These were taken place from March 9th-20th.
http://www.ipacademy.org/images/pdfs/egypt-poll-results-april2011.pdf

Amr Moussa would win by a landslide (37%) and El Baradei would only get 2%.

The 'most decisive issue' in the upcoming elections would be Democracy at 29%, followed by Islam at 16%.

63% favour keeping the peace with Israel.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
63% favour keeping the peace with Israel.
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Since jobs and poverty were central to the discontent with Mubarak's regime, it would make sense that the people would like to see the tourist trade rebound, since it involves the most income for the least amount of resources.

It is hard to lure tourists to a country that is at war with a neighbor who has better weaponry and logistical capabilities.

There were a lot of highly-educated people at the forefront of the protests, many of whom would love to see a peaceful period in the immediate future. They should know that war is not really that good for an ecconomy.
 
A cold peace is better than none at all. Doesn't fix the dismal view the Egyptian public has of Jews overall and the overwhelming majority who view Israel as an enemy state.

And still, between 100k-200k+ Israelis visit Egypt/Sinai per year. I hope this keeps on going.

As for the highly educated and the education barrier solving these negative views towards Israel or anti-Westernism in general, its a myth. Often those involved in terrorism related activities, they come from educated backgrounds.
 
If this post were 'post Mubarak pols in Egypt' I'd give this a hearty belly laugh.

El Baradei would only get 2%.
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A pol wannabe, and something about a man getting no respect in his native land ... :D
 
The thing is that even if 90% of Egyptians support liberal democracy (which they don't) but 10% are ruthless people with guns then the 10% will win. We saw that in Lebanon where Hezbollah crushed the March 14th movement and became the power behind the throne.

Ruthless guys with guns get their way. That's how politics works in that part of the world. That's why liberalism failed to take root in the Arab world. Liberals, by definition don't car-bomb and assassinate their rivals.

Remember that Egypt is a very poor, backwards and deeply conservative place with a lot of systemic problems (to put it lightly). The hip Facebook youth are only the tiniest fraction of the population.
 
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Virus said:
The thing is that even if 90% of Egyptians support liberal democracy (which they don't) but 10% are ruthless people with guns then the 10% will win. We saw that in Lebanon where Hezbollah crushed the March 14th movement and became the power behind the throne.
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Errr you really don't understand lebanon do you?

I would suggest North korea or Pol pot as better examples.

Oh and 10% of the egyptian population is 7.9 million people. That many ruthless people with guns is quite an army.

Ruthless guys with guns get their way. That's how politics works in that part of the world. That's why liberalism failed to take root in the Arab world. Liberals, by definition don't car-bomb and assassinate their rivals.
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You should probably look into some of the european civil wars. Or indeed some european terrorist groups.

Remember that Egypt is a very poor, backwards and deeply conservative place with a lot of systemic problems (to put it lightly). The hip Facebook youth are only the tiniest fraction of the population.
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The youth in general are a massive fraction and conservative islam just makes their life difficult. The hip Facebook youth at least have a theoretical prommise of a better life.
 
North Korea and Communist Cambodia is a model for Lebanon? Don't be ridiculous Geni.
 
Moussa was head of the Arab League. He's a radical Arab Nationalist.
 
It seems you feel compelled to find the negative in almost everything relating to the Arab world. It was only a few weeks ago you stated that the Muslim Brotherhood would win by a landslide in free and fair elections. Aren't you happy you were wrong?
 
Virus said:
North Korea and Communist Cambodia is a model for Lebanon? Don't be ridiculous Geni.
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Okey now you are just trolling. There is absolutely no way you could have read my mention of those two countries as anything other than ones that are a better example of a violent 10%.

I note you don't respond to my post but since that would require you to actualy know something about war and conflict that is not unexpected.
 
geni said:
Errr you really don't understand lebanon do you?
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Lebanese politics you mean? What's so difficult to understand about how disfunctional and corrupt the Lebanese government really is and how Hezbollah does hold excessive sway over Lebanese politics down the barrel of a gun, or, erm....car/suicide bombs.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
It seems you feel compelled to find the negative in almost everything relating to the Arab world. It was only a few weeks ago you stated that the Muslim Brotherhood would win by a landslide in free and fair elections. Aren't you happy you were wrong?
Click to expand...
Perhaps the concept of 'democracy' should be compared to previous polls that have been provided on these post-Mubarak threads.

And how long you would last in Cairo/Luxor/etc. calling an Egyptian an Arab :p
 
Poll: Most Egyptians favor annulling peace with Israel
Most Egyptians are in favor of annulling a peace treaty with Israel, according to a Pew Research Center poll released on Monday.

The US-based think tank polled 1,000 adults throughout Egypt between March 24 and April 7, finding that only 36 percent would maintain peace. The percentage of Egyptians who support annulling the treaty (54%) does not vary amongst those who sympathize with Islamic fundamentalists and those who do not. However, those with lower incomes are less likely to support the peace with Israel than those with higher incomes.
...
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Even more variation....
 
bigjelmapro said:
Lebanese politics you mean? What's so difficult to understand about how disfunctional and corrupt the Lebanese government really is and how Hezbollah does hold excessive sway over Lebanese politics down the barrel of a gun, or, erm....car/suicide bombs.
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Hezbollah are rather larger than 10%. In fact they are the largest single group in lebanese politics. They can get a legitimate plurality and it won't take much of a democratic shift to get a majority.
 
And the big winner in the first Egyptian elections are... the Muslim Brotherhood and the ultra-conservative Nour Party!
Unofficial initial results from the first two days of Egypt's parliamentary elections pointed to a dominant showing for Islamist candidates, fulfilling most analysts' expectations that conservative religious politicians could have the upper hand in next year's drafting of a new Egyptian constitution.

Initial tallies put the powerful Muslim Brotherhood's political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, or FJP, in a leading position, followed by the Nour Party, which represents the ultraconservative Salafi school of Islam, according to an FJP news release.

An FJP official said the party's vote-counting observers expect the group to win as much as 50% of the vote. A Nour Party spokesman said the early returns point to a Salafi capture of about 10% to 15% of seats in the incoming parliament.

The Egyptian Bloc, a liberal list of parties dominated by the left-leaning Social Democrat Party and the pro-market Free Egyptians Party, appeared to be coming in third. Official early results are expected to be announced on Thursday, according to a statement by the High Elections Commission.
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Yeah, I really see a secular democracy coming from this bunch crafting the constitution. :(
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Turns out that contrary to most people's fears, the secular Wafd party would emerge as the most popular party if elections were held today, gaining 23% of the vote. The Muslim brotherhood would get 12%.

These were taken place from March 9th-20th.
http://www.ipacademy.org/images/pdfs/egypt-poll-results-april2011.pdf

Amr Moussa would win by a landslide (37%) and El Baradei would only get 2%.

The 'most decisive issue' in the upcoming elections would be Democracy at 29%, followed by Islam at 16%.

63% favour keeping the peace with Israel.
Click to expand...
My oh my, how things change in 8 months!
 
As the linked article notes, there are a number of reasons for that change, and the early results aren't exactly unexpected (for the most part, anyway).

What worries me, though, is the surprising success the salafist party had in Alexandria. That's where my family lives.
 
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