American astrologer Predicted Japan Earthquake

[Sherman Bay]

He forecasted the Japan quake, named the date, country and magnitude.

OK, I'll play along. He forecasted the Japan quake, named the date, country and magnitude. He was right.

He also forecasted many other events that didn't happen. More didn't than did. It looks a lot like random guessing.

Why are you impressed with something that could be done by random guessing?

 

[maggot9779]

OK, I'll play along. He forecasted the Japan quake, named the date, country and magnitude. He was right.

He also forecasted many other events that didn't happen. More didn't than did. It looks a lot like random guessing.

Why are you impressed with something that could be done by random guessing?

I'm afraid you are wasting your time. Astro seems to have fled the thread. Atleast until another of the "predictions" come true so he can say "Ah-ha!!"

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

2011/03/10 17:08:36 6.6 BALI SEA
2011/03/11 05:46:24 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:15:40 7.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:25:50 7.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 07:18:48 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/22 09:44:30 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/24 13:55:12 6.8 MYANMAR
2011/04/03 20:06:42 6.7 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

March
10
1118
19
20
21
28

April
1
2
3
4
6

Hits: 1
Misses: 16

 

[carlitos]

Squeegee, was today's quake a hit?

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Squeegee, was today's quake a hit?

I hadn't seen it yet but, yes, the quake today is a hit, given that I'm being generous and counting quakes off the coast of Japan as being quakes in Japan. That makes the current count:

2011/03/10 17:08:36 6.6 BALI SEA
2011/03/11 05:46:24 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:15:40 7.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:25:50 7.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 07:18:48 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/22 09:44:30 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/24 13:55:12 6.8 MYANMAR
2011/04/03 20:06:42 6.7 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
2011/04/07 14:32:42 7.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
March
10
1118
19
20
21
28

April
1
2
3
4
6
7
Hits: 2
Misses: 16

 

[Peter Fisher]

Hits: 2
Misses: 16

The claim made by Theodore White was: "My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude". Have I missed something? You are not including the events that match 6.6 upwards.

 

[jsfisher]

The claim made by Theodore White was: "My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude". Have I missed something? You are not including the events that match 6.6 upwards.

The match needs to be for the right location (Japan) and one of the specified dates.

Welcome to the forum, by the way. Great name.

 

[Peter Fisher]

The match needs to be for the right location (Japan) and one of the specified dates.

But he didn't specify a quake magnitude specifically for Japan; he rumbled on about activity around the Ring of Fire in vague terms

• During the entire month of March 2011 we can expect to hear of powerful earthquakes along the 'Ring of Fire.'
  
• In March, look first to Asia for seismic action in the northern hemisphere - China and Japan, then to the Philippines, along to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, to British Columbia, Canada, then to California in the United States, stretching down to Mexico and into South America.

Welcome to the forum, by the way. Great name.

Thanks.

On another note, he's highlighted Significant Dates: April 1,2,3 and asterisked: *April 4, *April 6,7.

Scroll down the page and he shows a chart for, "New Moon: Sunday, April 3, 2011 - California" and says that it, "shows all the astrological signatures of an active seismic month."

Moving on to today we find a statement, "The dates of *April 7,8,9,10 are particularly highlighted in my earthquake forecast for southern California and the U.S. west coast." Has he messed up his forecast for April 7 since the Mag 7.1 earthquake has appeared in Japan instead of California? Only a few more hours left for us to see if anything else materializes in his favor.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

But he didn't specify a quake magnitude specifically for Japan; he rumbled on about activity around the Ring of Fire in vague terms

• During the entire month of March 2011 we can expect to hear of powerful earthquakes along the 'Ring of Fire.'
  
• In March, look first to Asia for seismic action in the northern hemisphere - China and Japan, then to the Philippines, along to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, to British Columbia, Canada, then to California in the United States, stretching down to Mexico and into South America.

The earthquakes I haven't highlighted/counted as hits were ones which occurred either on a date he didn't specify, or in a place he didn't specify. So the Japanese earthquakes on the 22nd March don't count because, although he specified Japan, he didn't list 22nd March. On the other hand, the April 3rd earthquake south of Java doesn't count because, although he predicted April 3rd, he didn't list Indonesia as a location.

You'll also note that I've highlighted 3 Japanese earthquakes but only counted them as 1 hit. This is for two reasons - firstly, they all took place on the same day and, secondly, the 2nd and 3rd of those quakes were aftershocks from the first quake. I have debated about whether to count this as 3 hits or one, but I think that one is the most reasonable.

On another note, he's highlighted Significant Dates: April 1,2,3 and asterisked: *April 4, *April 6,7.

Scroll down the page and he shows a chart for, "New Moon: Sunday, April 3, 2011 - California" and says that it, "shows all the astrological signatures of an active seismic month."

Moving on to today we find a statement, "The dates of *April 7,8,9,10 are particularly highlighted in my earthquake forecast for southern California and the U.S. west coast." Has he messed up his forecast for April 7 since the Mag 7.1 earthquake has appeared in Japan instead of California? Only a few more hours left for us to see if anything else materializes in his favor.

I would tend to give him the hit for this, although I thank you for bringing it to my attention, as this was not in the OP and therefore not information I was working off. Again, I've got 2 reasons for giving him the hit. Firstly, the way that is worded leaves it slightly ambiguous as to whether he's saying that the quakes on those dates will be significant for California and the West Coast alone, or whether they'll be significant for all the places he has named, but especially significant for California and the West Coast. That alone makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt, which leads me nicely on to point two. As I've said previously in the thread, I'm trying to be as fair as possible and potentially even skewing the results in favour of the astrologer. I'm supremely confident that even by doing so his results will end up being weak. Certainly nowhere near 88.9%. At the moment his accuracy rate is 12.5%.

 

[Astro Teacher]

The claim made by Theodore White was: "My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude". Have I missed something? You are not including the events that match 6.6 upwards.

I noticed it too. It's like most of them don't want to believe anything but earthquake predictions, according to most scientists, are impossible to make, yet Theodore White has predicted a number of earthquakes along the ring of fire already, including the ones he called from 6.6 to 7.9+ magnitude that's not being counted.

The false skeptics complain these are 'misses' as if he hasn't already done enough already! He even mapped out the regions.

Maybe they can do better but I sure haven't seen anything from them but stupid comments, but he is already predicted a number of these earthquakes when he wrote "My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude" so yes, he has MORE hits than just 2, you're right.

2011/03/10 17:08:36 6.6 BALI SEA 2011/03/11 05:46:24 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:15:40 7.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:25:50 7.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 07:18:48 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 09:44:30 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/24 13:55:12 6.8 MYANMAR 2011/04/03 20:06:42 6.7 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA 2011/04/07 14:32:42 7.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

 

[wollery]

I noticed it too. It's like most of them don't want to believe anything but earthquake predictions, according to most scientists, are impossible to make, yet Theodore White has predicted a number of earthquakes along the ring of fire already, including the ones he called from 6.6 to 7.9+ magnitude that's not being counted.

The false skeptics complain these are 'misses' as if he hasn't already done enough already! He even mapped out the regions.

Maybe they can do better but I sure haven't seen anything from them but stupid comments, but he is already predicted a number of these earthquakes when he wrote "My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude" so yes, he has MORE hits than just 2, you're right.

2011/03/10 17:08:36 6.6 BALI SEA 2011/03/11 05:46:24 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:15:40 7.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:25:50 7.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 07:18:48 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 09:44:30 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/24 13:55:12 6.8 MYANMAR 2011/04/03 20:06:42 6.7 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA 2011/04/07 14:32:42 7.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

So what you're saying is that he predicted earthquakes of magnitude 6.6 or greater anywhere around the ring of fire on a multitude of dates over a two month period.

That's like predicting that people who go swimming will get wet.

Pathetic.

 

[Astro Teacher]

So what you're saying is that he predicted earthquakes of magnitude 6.6 or greater anywhere around the ring of fire on a multitude of dates over a two month period.

That's like predicting that people who go swimming will get wet.

Pathetic.

This astrologer has predicted major earthquakes, named the region, countries and magnitudes during only two months with specific dates and that is exactly what we are seeing. And it isn't common either.

Oh, I forgot, it's just 'guessing.' That way, you can feel safe and secure and say it's nothing at all that we see these large quakes everyday. Yeah, that's the ticket.

What's 'pathetic' Wollery is that you can even think to compare predicting earthquakes, something very difficult to do, with people getting wet while swimming?

 

[wollery]

This astrologer has predicted major earthquakes, named the region, countries and magnitudes during only two months with specific dates and that is exactly what we are seeing. And it isn't common either.

Oh, I forgot, it's just 'guessing.' That way, you can feel safe and secure and say it's nothing at all that we see these large quakes everyday. Yeah, that's the ticket.

What's 'pathetic' Wollery is that you can even think to compare predicting earthquakes, something very difficult to do, with people getting wet while swimming?

No, he named several countries, a huge range of magnitudes and a large proportion of all possible dates chosen from those two months. He did not say that there would be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan on March 11.

You are counting any earthquake above a 6.6 anywhere on the ring of fire as a hit. That is something that happens every four days on average on the ring of fire. So to make predictions for a large number of dates and a large range of magnitudes over the entire ring of fire area gives you an almost 100% chance of making several hits. Statistically speaking about 1/4 of his dates should be hits, just from pure random chance! Pick 20 dates and at least five of them should be "hits".

If you want to impress anyone here tell him to pick a single country or relatively small region, a single date and a small magnitude range. Then get back to us.

 

[Pixel42]

You are counting any earthquake above a 6.6 anywhere on the ring of fire as a hit. That is something that happens every four days on average on the ring of fire. So to make predictions for a large number of dates and a large range of magnitudes over the entire ring of fire area gives you an almost 100% chance of making several hits. Statistically speaking about 1/4 of his dates should be hits, just from pure random chance! Pick 20 dates and at least five of them should be "hits".

If you want to impress anyone here tell him to pick a single country or relatively small region, a single date and a small magnitude range. Then get back to us.

This has been explained to Astro Teacher several times by several different people but he seems incapable of grasping it. Either he is one of those unfortunate people who can't understand simple maths no matter how clearly it is explained to them or he is deliberately closing his mind to the explanation so that he can maintain his irrational beliefs. In either case there seems little point in explaining it to him again.

 

[ynot]

This has been explained to Astro Teacher several times by several different people but he seems incapable of grasping it. Either he is one of those unfortunate people who can't understand simple maths no matter how clearly it is explained to them or he is deliberately closing his mind to the explanation so that he can maintain his irrational beliefs. In either case there seems little point in explaining it to him again.

He won’t understand or accept any of that either. Unfortunately “open-minded” beliefs are really very closed-minded.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

He even mapped out the regions.

He did. He gave a specific list of countries. This is why I'm not counting the earthquakes outside of the countries he mentioned. The same goes for ones which occur on dates other than those he specified.

I will happily count these as hits if you will retract your statements that White has predicted specific places and specific dates. But if you want to maintain the claim that he predicted specific places and dates, then you have to discount earthquakes which occur in places and times other than those specified.

 

[ynot]

He did. He gave a specific list of countries. This is why I'm not counting the earthquakes outside of the countries he mentioned. The same goes for ones which occur on dates other than those he specified.

I will happily count these as hits if you will retract your statements that White has predicted specific places and specific dates. But if you want to maintain the claim that he predicted specific places and dates, then you have to discount earthquakes which occur in places and times other than those specified.

A specific earthquake claim provides a specific place, magnitue and date. White provides absolutely none of these. Astro T’s statement that White has provided a single specific claim is therefore totally incorrect regardless of how many “hits” he gets from his lolly scramble offering.

 

[Laton]

This astrologer has predicted major earthquakes, named the region, countries and magnitudes during only two months with specific dates and that is exactly what we are seeing. And it isn't common either.

Oh, I forgot, it's just 'guessing.' That way, you can feel safe and secure and say it's nothing at all that we see these large quakes everyday. Yeah, that's the ticket.

What's 'pathetic' Wollery is that you can even think to compare predicting earthquakes, something very difficult to do, with people getting wet while swimming?

He predicted earthquakes along the ring of fire http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire

In a 40,000 km (25,000 mi) horseshoe shape, it is associated with a nearly continuous series of oceanic trenches, volcanic arcs, and volcanic belts and/or plate movements. The Ring of Fire has 452 volcanoes and is home to over 75% of the world's active and dormant volcanoes.[1] It is sometimes called the circum-Pacific belt or the circum-Pacific seismic belt.
Eruption of Mount St. Helens on July 22, 1980.

About 90% of the world's earthquakes and 80% of the world's largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire.

Emphasis mine.

Predicting an earthquake there is about as impressive as predicting a car crash on a freeway.

 

[Sledge]

Astro Teacher: do you understand why people are saying this wasn't a hit?

 

[maggot9779]

Astro, since you seem to be back, can you tell me, from White's prediction, where and what magnitude an earthquake will be on April 15th?