The Massei/Mignini Conspiracy Theory

[platonov]

A quote wrapped in a cite inside a turnip draped in a transparent petticoat.

I don't see a quote from one of Meredith's friends testimony putting the mealtime at 7PM but as I stated I am interested in seeing it. I make no claim that I am perfect or that it is not possible I missed reading a quote from one of them putting the mealtime at 7PM. At this point I consider your claim to be unsupported and I have no intention of looking further.

Your 'slip' is not just starting to show - its now practically indecent


I repeat ....
If you don't know anything about the case why are you posting here ? ... as opposed to the Cartwheel thread.

Unless you wish to posit a conspiracy theory - Do you ?

 

[Chris_Halkides]

note from the underground

If you don't know anything about the case why are you posting here ? ... as opposed to the Cartwheel thread.[/I]

platonov,

How do you square a 7:00 meal time with the length of the movie they watched, which is 123 minutes?

 

[RoseMontague]

Your 'slip' is not just starting to show - its now practically indecent


I repeat ....
If you don't know anything about the case why are you posting here ? ... as opposed to the Cartwheel thread.

Unless you wish to posit a conspiracy theory - Do you ?

Amy Frost: Massei

As far November 1 was concerned, she remembered that Meredith had arrived about half past four and that they had started eating the pizza they had prepared at around half past five or six.

I have now provided the quotes regarding the testimony of Amy, Robyn, and Sophie. Is there a friend I missed?

You should be aware by now that I am very interested in getting the facts straight. I don't appreciate the snarky comment.

 

[platonov]

platonov,

How do you square a 7:00 meal time with the length of the movie they watched, which is 123 minutes?

Silence infidel !

 

[platonov]

platonov,

How do you square a 7:00 meal time with the length of the movie they watched, which is 123 minutes?

Although .....

Using IMDB to do gastric analysis and solve crimes online - man that was good.

Even the truthers would be proud of that one

 

[platonov]

Amy Frost: Massei



I have now provided the quotes regarding the testimony of Amy, Robyn, and Sophie. Is there a friend I missed?

You should be aware by now that I am very interested in getting the facts straight. I don't appreciate the snarky comment.

Ha !

I am unaware of any such activity or operation.....

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Past a certain point I tend to conclude that a poster is simply not interested in rational discussion and put them on my ignore list.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Garner support

Although .....

Using IMDB to do gastric analysis and solve crimes online - man that was good.

platonov,

You do me too much honor. All I did was to show how someone else's claim was almost certainly wrong.

 

[platonov]

Past a certain point I tend to conclude that a poster is simply not interested in rational discussion and put them on my ignore list.

crickets eh



That possible 7pm meal start time is certainly best ignored [as was the 5.30 - 6.00 on other occasions]

But this is certainly is not my approach - either in CT or Cartwheel world.
If it were think, of all the wondrous arguments I would have missed - why, it would defeat the very purpose of (my participation in) these threads.

 

[platonov]

platonov,

You do me too much honor. All I did was to show how someone else's claim was almost certainly wrong.

Never meant to imply it was your work - thought it was Kevin Lowe or Dan O whoever ? It was delicious stuff all the same.

What does this mean - are you negating sworn testimony by using this IMDB research ??

 

[RoseMontague]

Past a certain point I tend to conclude that a poster is simply not interested in rational discussion and put them on my ignore list.

The only indication that I see of a meal time of 18:30-19:00 in Massei is Introna on page 177(PMF trans). This is contradicted by Introna himself on page 132(PMF trans). Robyn puts it around 6PM, Sophie 6PM or earlier, and Amy 5:30-6:00PM, so I believe that Introna is either mistaken or Massei relates this incorrectly on the 18:30-19:00 time on page 177.

It is interesting that Raffaele's appeal uses the 18:30-19:00 as well at one point so it is very possible that I have missed something somewhere. I just don't see anything from any of the friends that were there that indicates this later meal time. From this standpoint I do appreciate platonov bringing this up and there is some mystery as to why the use of the later meal time in Raffaele's appeal.

 

[platonov]

Groundhogs in 'no towers' claim.

The only indication that I see of a meal time of 18:30-19:00 in Massei is Introna on page 177(PMF trans). This is contradicted by Introna himself on page 132(PMF trans). Robyn puts it around 6PM, Sophie 6PM or earlier, and Amy 5:30-6:00PM, so I believe that Introna is either mistaken or Massei relates this incorrectly on the 18:30-19:00 time on page 177.

It is interesting that Raffaele's appeal uses the 18:30-19:00 as well at one point so it is very possible that I have missed something somewhere. I just don't see anything from any of the friends that were there that indicates this later meal time. From this standpoint I do appreciate platonov bringing this up and there is some mystery as to why the use of the later meal time in Raffaele's appeal.

Really - why thank you.

It was already brought up ~126 times on the cartwheel threads and ignored [for obvious reasons].
I anticipate that when its brought to the attention of those using the Gastric analysis/ Lone Wolf /Dead by 9.15 argument, for the 128th time you will be just as appreciative.

I live in hope

 

[RoseMontague]

Really - why thank you.

It was already brought up ~126 times on the cartwheel threads and ignored [for obvious reasons].
I anticipate that when its brought to the attention of those using the Gastric analysis/ Lone Wolf /Dead by 9.15 argument, for the 128th time you will be just as appreciative.

I live in hope

I live in hope as well platonov. Sometimes I think you make excellent points but they are made in ways that I personally do not comprehend until several pages of back and forth.

The problem with an earlier mealtime (5:30-6:00) is the chances of some of the stomach contents not having moved on by 9:00-9:30+ grow even more remote. I do understand this point. It is certainly not nearly as remote as 11:30. If the mealtime is actually 6:30-7:00PM then the odds are better for a TOD around 9:30 but still very remote for 11:30+.

However, from the information I have seen Meredith's friends seem to be in agreement of a 6PM or even earlier meal time.

 

[babycondor]

Really - why thank you.

It was already brought up ~126 times on the cartwheel threads and ignored [for obvious reasons].
...

The most obvious reason to ignore it would be that it was directly contradicted by the eyewitness testimony of the friends who dined with Meredith that evening. None of them said the meal began at 7:00.

 

[platonov]

Conspiracy widens

The most obvious reason to ignore it would be that it was directly contradicted by the eyewitness testimony of the friends who dined with Meredith that evening. None of them said the meal began at 7:00.

That was fast

So the RS defence team (and expert witness) & Massei & by implication AK's defence team are now in on the conspiracy.
[Lets ignore the ugly fact they have access to the actual testimony]

Excellent -- now we are making progress.

 

[RoseMontague]

The most obvious reason to ignore it would be that it was directly contradicted by the eyewitness testimony of the friends who dined with Meredith that evening. None of them said the meal began at 7:00.

It seems to me that platonov is arguing in favor of Raffaele's appeal on the 6:30-7:00PM meal time.

However, it is possible from a scientific point of view to further restrict such a range using the gastric contents, in terms of size (500 cc.) and composition (pastry, mozzarella, vegetables, apple slices), and comparing this with the last meal eaten by the victim as reported by witnesses: the time of death would in this way be placed, based on forensic criteria of maximum reliability (on account of the individual and converging viewpoints of the various consultant and experts), at a distance of 2-3/3-4 hours from the start of the consumption of the last known meal (18.30-19.00 on 1.11.2007) and thus at about 21.30-22.00.

 

[RoseMontague]

That was fast

So the RS defence team (and expert witness) & Massei & by implication AK's defence team are now in on the conspiracy.
[Lets ignore the ugly fact they have access to the actual testimony]

Excellent -- now we are making progress.

I agree. Robyn, Amy, and Sophie must have all changed their testimony at some point and the appeal's estimate of the TOD fits perfectly with platonov's claim. I just don't understand why the various reports cite their testimony from before they changed it and not after. Go figure.

 

[platonov]

Conspiracy widens further

I agree. Robyn, Amy, and Sophie must have all changed their testimony at some point and the appeal's estimate of the TOD fits perfectly with platonov's claim. I just don't understand why the various reports cite their testimony from before they changed it and not after. Go figure.

Obviously Robyn, Amy, and Sophie are now also in on the conspiracy.

I don't have any claim per se - I'm just enjoying the ballet of crickets, scantily clad turnips and movies while waiting for London John to respond with his stats.

Like all good scientists Kevin Lowe wisely refuses to sully google gobbldygook a 'beautiful theory' with any ugly facts.

 

[LondonJohn]

Obviously Robyn, Amy, and Sophie are now also in on the conspiracy.

I don't have any claim per se - I'm just enjoying the ballet of crickets, scantily clad turnips and movies while waiting for London John to respond with his stats.

Like all good scientists Kevin Lowe wisely refuses to sully google gobbldygook a 'beautiful theory' with any ugly facts.

I'm not sure exactly what you're waiting for. You seem keener on agitation than engaging in a rational discussion. Why is that, I wonder?

As I said before, my reply on this topic was to set the mathematical record straight regarding conditional probabilities - specifically to refute Stilicho's risible insistence that the defined bell curve for t(lag) meant that Meredith had to have died well before 9pm.

If you notice in my post, I put the word "approx" next to each percentage. This stands for the full word "approximately". This is because I was on my way out when I wrote the post, and didn't feel like referencing the percentile points which I had previously used. They are not far off, but I see that you seem to be getting some perverse pleasure out of highlighting the discrepancies.

Therefore, for your benefit, I shall reconstruct my original post, but substituting the percentile probabilities from my earlier post into the equations. Of course, the point I was illustrating remains exactly the same, but since you seem to want total parity of actual numbers, I'm happy to oblige.

So:

If all we knew was that Meredith's last meal started at around 6.30pm:

a) Prob she died before 9pm = 98%
b) Prob she died between 9pm and 9.20pm = 1.9%
c) Prob she died between 9.20pm and 10pm = 0.09%
d) Prob she died later than 10pm = 0.01%


Now, if we add in the condition that she definitely didn't die before 9pm:

a) Prob she died before 9pm = 0%
b) Prob she died between 9pm and 9.20pm = 95%
c) Prob she died between 9.20pm and 10pm = 4.5%
d) Prob she died later than 10pm = 0.5%

Of course, the caveat to all of this is that the bell curve isn't exceptionally precisely defined at such a far end of the curve. This of course is why I originally introduced a +/- 25% error to those numbers. However, even when such a large error factor is applied, it's patently clear that the overwhelming likelihood is that Meredith died well before 10pm, and that it's virtually impossible that she died later than 11pm (or at the very least was violently attacked any later than 11pm).

 

[LondonJohn]

I agree. Robyn, Amy, and Sophie must have all changed their testimony at some point and the appeal's estimate of the TOD fits perfectly with platonov's claim. I just don't understand why the various reports cite their testimony from before they changed it and not after. Go figure.

What I read from Sollecito's appeal document is that the pizza part of the meal took place between around 6.30pm and 7pm (meaning, of course, that the start of the meal was around 6.30pm). This tallies very well with the length of the movie they subsequently watched, since IIRC they testified that Sophie and Meredith left immediately as the film finished.

And a start time of 6.30pm also fits with what the medical/scientific literature tells us about t(lag) spreads: Meredith's t(lag) on that evening was at the far end of the bell curve - but not extraordinarily so. What's patently obvious is that there's essentially no way that she was killed (or even first confronted/attacked*) any later than 11pm, and there's only a very small chance that she died any later than 10pm.

* Incidentally, I know some people have tried to "finesse" the timings by adding in the obfuscatory issue of the impact of fear/trauma on digestion. It's well-known scientifically that extreme fear can cause the digestive process to slow down - but NOT to stop. The only time that the digestive process totally grinds to a halt is essentially the time just preceding death, when all the body's vital systems start to shut down. In Meredith's case, it's likely that her digestion stopped some 5-10 minutes maximum before her actual brain stem death. And of course for a ToD of 11.40pm to be in any way feasible, we'd have to pretend that Meredith were held in constant extreme trauma and fear for pretty much the whole time between 9pm and 11.40pm (remember, the digestive process would only have SLOWED during this time, rather than stopping totally). And this of course is total nonsense.