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The Massei/Mignini Conspiracy Theory

They based it on magic. Thats how police departments work, didn't you know? All around the world police departments stare into crystal balls, and a genie pops up and gives them the answer!

No, as a matter of fact it's not how they work. That's part of my point, this is an extremely unusual way of conducting an 'investigation.' I happen to know that, however all I can hope for is that either common sense or logic would suggest to you that if the police actually worked that way they probably shouldn't.

Or, maybe, you know, the police did what police do, and investigated the crime. They looked at the evidence, and tried different scenerios to see how they fit. You may disagree with the approach the police had, but it is the same approach nearly every single police department uses when investigating a crime.

When the police properly investigate a crime they produce evidence that supports their theories. That is something notably missing in this instance, which makes the last two sentences rather curious.

Again: you have leaped from the scenerio we were discussing: how the police got from A to B, to how did those who think she was guilty got from A to B. It is very difficult to have a conversation when we are always talking about different things.

That would probably be because I have difficulty with the proposition that someone could look at what they did and conclude 'that must be proper police work.' What causes you to draw that conclusion?


She had placed herself at the crime scene. Remember: the fact that her statement was later thrown out of court has no bearing on the knowledge the police had at the time she made it. I have acknowledged several times that the confession may have been coerced. We are simply talking about how the police got from A to B. You are viewing this with nearly four years of hindsight. At the time the police were working the clues as they discovered them.

I very much understand what you mean here, and what I am trying to illustrate is their 'story' of how they got from A to B doesn't make any sense whatsoever. There's something very important missing from their version of events, notably why that statement convinced them that Amanda actually was at the crime scene and kinda remembers Patrick was with Meredith when it happened, thus justifying the arrest of her, Patrick and Raffaele and racing through the streets of Perugia with sirens blaring concluding with the police chief announcing 'case closed.'

When I started following this case, I thought that Amanda was innocent. After having read the "cartwheels" thread, I am firmly convinced she is guilty. Isn't it amazing how two people can look at the very same facts and come to different conclusions!

I find it absolutely fascinating. What three things make you firmly convinced she is guilty, and what exactly do you think she is guilty of? I ask the latter as I don't expect anyone to have to defend the crime as prosecuted, but allow that some might think her guilty of some association with it.


Well, here is the statement again for everyone to read:

wish to relate spontaneously what happened because these events have deeply bothered me and I am really afraid of Patrick, the African boy who owns the pub called “Le Chic” located in Via Alessi where I work periodically. I met him in the evening of November 1st 2007, after sending him a reply message saying “I will see you”. We met soon after at about 21.00 at the basketball court of Piazza Grimana. We went to my apartment in Via della Pergola n. 7. I do not clearly remember if Meredith was already at home or if she came later, what I can say is that Patrick and Meredith went into Meredith’s room, while I think I stayed in the kitchen. I cannot remember how long they stayed together in the room but I can only say that at a certain point I heard Meredith screaming and as I was scared I plugged up my hears. Then I do not remember anything, I am very confused. I do not remember if Meredith was screaming and if I heard some thuds too because I was upset, but I imagined what could have happened.-

Well holy crap.

Amanda just admitted to being at the crime scene and claimed Patrick was the killer!

Did she?

By what basis do you claim that this is a "ridiculous 'statements?" Why on earth, if you were the police, would you dismiss this statement? You have already conceded that you believe if the police coerced Amanda they did it unintentionally. So how on earth could you dismiss this statement, and why wouldn't you act on it as soon as possible?

1. Why did she meet Patrick at the basketball court? Why is that information missing, it would seem crucial to determining if the crime was premeditated. Questions would have been asked on this point and should be reflected in the statement, are we to conclude this is something she doesn't remember, like other things below?

2. She doesn't know if Meredith was there when they arrived and isn't sure of where she was (in the cottage) at the time, nor is there any estimate whatsoever of how long they were in the room together, which is pretty damned important information. Even a general phrase such as 'short time' or 'a little while' would be helpful, after all they're going to want to determine just what time the murder happened, and certainly would have pressed her on that point. Especially as they know at this juncture that Meredith returned to the cottage around 9 PM which is when her account starts.

3. "Then I do not remember anything, I am very confused."--What on earth does this mean? She doesn't remember the murder? Red flag.

4. She doesn't remember if Meredith was screaming or if she heard thuds and imagines what happened. Huh? What's that negative information doing in the statement? Is this girl coherent? Red flag.

You'd obviously investigate this of course, but to close the case on this basis is bizarre--unless they previously suspected Patrick Lumumba and her statement just corroborated that. If that's the case they might have pressed her on the issue of Patrick, past the point of her able to handle it in the condition she was in. They were telling her Raffaele said she left, that they had 'hard evidence' she was at the scene, that she must have witnessed it and 'repressed' the memory, and then threatened her with 30 years in jail, to never see her mother again, and then started hitting her. She probably just freaked out in her state. What was she supposed to conclude other than the police must be right?


I do my best to make sure everything I say is as true and as accurate as possible. When you start to say I am suggesting something, it is much much easier to rely on what I actually said. If I have said anything that you can prove to be incorrect I will happily concede.

I feel the same way. :)



There is no such thing as common knowledge of this case. On this very board alone there are three massive threads with thousands of posts and hundreds of links. Sometimes a request for a cite is just a request for a cite. If I were to ask you to provide me a list of all things that are "common knowledge" for this case, how long would that list be? If I asked stilicho what was common knowledge of the case, do you think his list would be the same or different to you?

As you might have noted it would include the existence of that statement as he offered his own interpretation of its meaning between my post and yours. That was what I was getting at.


I appreciate that and apologize for how I came across. I may have come off snarkier than I intended. Had a bad morning down under... :( Having said that, I reserve the right to use snark later on in this post! ;)

No problem, I am not exactly unfamiliar with the concept of 'snark.' ;)


I would actually love to see the primary source here. I do appreciate you linking to the Mirror article: but looking at some of the quotes from other participants it seems apparent that many of them have been translated, so I would love to see the original statement in context. But no matter.

Oh, it certainly could be rendered differently, but the essence stays the same and the context is after doing the 'victory lap' through Perugia and announcing "Case Closed."

Do you know what di Felice is describing here? Proper police work. That's how they really do it, they corroborate information and they insist during the interrogation that the results match as best as is humanly possible. In this case they thought so, they actually believed they had good reason to conclude Patrick was the murderer based on a number of indications revealed earlier in this thread, it just so happened they were errors due to confirmation bias and just plain misleading coincidences.

Incidentally, I initially assumed Amanda was probably guilty. Even after I came to the conclusion she was innocent, I still maintained for a while that police had simply made a mistake. However I came to eventually realize that was unsupportable in face of the evidence that the police were covering up the mistakes made during the interrogation, scapegoated Amanda for the arrest of Patrick Lumumba, and then lied about it in court in order to maintain the illusion that Amanda had just accused him to save herself or throw them off the track. There's a number of reasons I came to that conclusion, this is just one of them.

If you add the suspicion they had of Patrick Lumumba previous to the interrogation of Amanda Knox back into the puzzle that explains an awful lot. It shows why they set up the twelve cop overnight session, the 'vague and confused' statements, and then the dramatic arrest of Patrick Lumumba and the colorful transit through town and announcing the case was closed. They actually believed they had their three murderers, that's why they wouldn't let up on Amanda and then were happy with those pathetic statements, they probably were sure the forensics would show them their traces at the scene, thus it would hardly matter the 'confession' was weak tea.
 
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Now then. Now then. Now then.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Stilicho LondonJohn would never try to deliberately mislead people on this whole "Time of Death using stomach/intestine autopsy findings" issue. I can therefore only conclude that he doesn't have even a rudimentary grasp of conditional statistical analysis, since these two (deliberate misleading or sheer lack of understanding) are the only two possibilities at play here.

Well there is a third possibility, the 'literature' has been falsified in the interim - A NEW Conspiracy theory !!! :jaw-dropp

Previously you posted ad nauseum and at great length that there was a probability of 99.9% that ToD was before 9.20 & 98 % before 9.00.

See Link Link & previous posts.

Now suddenly its b) Prob that she died between 9.00pm and 10.00pm: 96% (approx)

We had a previous funnier example of this kind of 'numeracy' - here

The 'I dont know about that but you would definitely save a quarter' episode.


Perhaps you would like to check your stats or 'the literature' again :)
['foolish consistency' and all that]

That 99.9% statistic is not mine - it is Platonov's. It is incorrect - he/she also misunderstood (or chose to misunderstand) the nested conditional probability analysis.

But yes, it's true that I used 96% v 98% in earlier posts. The bell curve is necessarily difficult to extrapolate with extreme accuracy beyond the 90% mark, unless one has literally tens of thousands of data points to fit to the curve. However, this absolutely does not invalidate the underlying theory. And this theory suggests that it's vastly more probable that Meredith died between 9pm and 10pm than it is that she died later than 10pm - GIVEN THAT SHE WAS STILL ALIVE AT 9PM.

My post was made in order to illustrate how and why Stilicho is so incorrect in continuing his misleading assertion that the bell curve suggests that Meredith was almost certainly dead by 8.30pm. At least I hope he understands a little more about conditional statistical analysis now.
 
Now then. Now then. Now then.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Stilicho LondonJohn would never try to deliberately mislead people on this whole "Time of Death using stomach/intestine autopsy findings" issue. I can therefore only conclude that he doesn't have even a rudimentary grasp of conditional statistical analysis, since these two (deliberate misleading or sheer lack of understanding) are the only two possibilities at play here.

Well there is a third possibility, the 'literature' has been falsified in the interim - A NEW Conspiracy theory !!! :jaw-dropp

Previously you posted ad nauseum and at great length that there was a probability of 99.9% that ToD was before 9.20 & 98 % before 9.00.

See Link Link & previous posts.

Now suddenly its b) Prob that she died between 9.00pm and 10.00pm: 96% (approx)

We had a previous funnier example of this kind of 'numeracy' - here

The 'I dont know about that but you would definitely save a quarter' episode.


Perhaps you would like to check your stats or 'the literature' again :)
['foolish consistency' and all that]

Platonov, it depends on when you assume she took her first bite, 6:00 PM, or 6:30 PM. It was somewhere in there, so it was 96-99% that she died in that time range on the far end of the curve depending on when she started eating.

Incidentally I just watched the movie again last night, it was still about what I expected. It wasn't actually all that good a movie, but it was paced nicely. They maintained some 'suspicion' for the mystery angle but I thought Hayden portrayed an innocent Amanda, and that was the main thing to me.
 
That 99.9% statistic is not mine - it is Platonov's. It is incorrect - he/she also misunderstood (or chose to misunderstand) the nested conditional probability analysis.

But yes, it's true that I used 96% v 98% in earlier posts. The bell curve is necessarily difficult to extrapolate with extreme accuracy beyond the 90% mark, unless one has literally tens of thousands of data points to fit to the curve. However, this absolutely does not invalidate the underlying theory. And this theory suggests that it's vastly more probable that Meredith died between 9pm and 10pm than it is that she died later than 10pm - GIVEN THAT SHE WAS STILL ALIVE AT 9PM.

My post was made in order to illustrate how and why Stilicho is so incorrect in continuing his misleading assertion that the bell curve suggests that Meredith was almost certainly dead by 8.30pm. At least I hope he understands a little more about conditional statistical analysis now.


False - the 99.9% figure is based on your 'stats' as the links clearly show, a child could follow it.

Now while I can forgive innumerate arguments such as these I cant forgive mendacious arguments - to suggest that platonov is the author of such piffle is is extremely mendacious and insulting.

Basta !

Still your attempt to reconcile a ToD of before 9 @ 98% with a ToD of before 10 @ 96% is kinda funny - not as funny as the 25% correction but such treats are rare :)
 
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Platonov, it depends on when you assume she took her first bite, 6:00 PM, or 6:30 PM. It was somewhere in there, so it was 96-99% that she died in that time range on the far end of the curve depending on when she started eating.

Incidentally I just watched the movie again last night, it was still about what I expected. It wasn't actually all that good a movie, but it was paced nicely. They maintained some 'suspicion' for the mystery angle but I thought Hayden portrayed an innocent Amanda, and that was the main thing to me.

Kaosium

It seems I spoke too soon in the last post.

If you cant see the contradiction between a ToD before 9 @ 98% with a ToD of before 10 @ 96%, both predicated on a meal start time of 6.30 I cant be of any further assistance.
Its complicated stuff like those windows of old etc ;)

But your assumption confusion re meal start times is interesting - No doubt you are unaware that the meal may have begun as late as 7 (as per testimony).
This has been pointed out to KL & LJ several times but is never incorporated into the highly scientific gastric analysis ..... to do so would have invalidated the Lone Wolf/Definitely dead by 9.20 arguments.

Still I was surprised the 7pm start time wasn't used to overcome later problems as opposed to the torturous innumerate nonsense LJ just posted.

But we all make our own beds :)

PS Was I right - she wont be released on the strength of the movie ?
Has the big hollywood blockbuster been 'greenlit' yet ?
 
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Kaosium

It seems I spoke too soon in the last post.

If you cant see the contradiction between a ToD before 9 @ 98% with a ToD of before 10 @ 96%, both predicated on a meal start time of 6.30 I cant be of any further assistance.
Its complicated stuff like those windows of old etc ;)

But your assumption confusion re meal start times is interesting - No doubt you are unaware that the meal may have begun as late as 7 (as per testimony).
This has been pointed out to KL & LJ several times but is never incorporated into the highly scientific gastric analysis ..... to do so would have invalidated the Lone Wolf/Definitely dead by 9.20 arguments.

Still I was surprised the 7pm start time wasn't used to overcome later problems as opposed to the torturous innumerate nonsense LJ just posted.

But we all make our own beds :)

We certainly do. And your argument is mendacious and incorrect. But then I think you might know that, since you've deliberately chosen to home in on semantic details rather than the overarching point I was originally illustrating.

Still, I'll be interested in seeing how you try to rationalise and self-justify if (when) Knox and Sollecito are released on appeal. And I believe that ToD may well form part of the appeal court's judgement - that is, if they even need to address it after the rest of the prosecution's case has crumbled away. Looking forward to your posts at that point :D
 
Kaosium

It seems I spoke too soon in the last post.

If you cant see the contradiction between a ToD before 9 @ 98% with a ToD of before 10 @ 96%, both predicated on a meal start time of 6.30 I cant be of any further assistance.
Its complicated stuff like those windows of old etc ;)


By the way, what you've done here is compare apples and pears. The original "ToD before 9pm = 98%" is based on the lack of the additional conditional information that Meredith in fact did NOT die before 9pm. This new knowledge changes this probability to "ToD before 9pm = 0%".

It's therefore entirely compatible with the conditional probability (given we know Meredith did not die before 9pm) that Meredith died between 9pm and 10pm of 96%. Sorry if you don't understand this though. I can explain it again if it would help...

PS what happened to the superfluous "signature" full stop....?
 
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We certainly do. And your argument is mendacious and incorrect. But then I think you might know that, since you've deliberately chosen to home in on semantic details rather than the overarching point I was originally illustrating.

Still, I'll be interested in seeing how you try to rationalise and self-justify if (when) Knox and Sollecito are released on appeal. And I believe that ToD may well form part of the appeal court's judgement - that is, if they even need to address it after the rest of the prosecution's case has crumbled away. Looking forward to your posts at that point :D


I've already dealt with the overarching point several times previously - your ToD arguments, like most of the arguments in Cartwheel world, are ill informed CT nonsense which have no bearing on the real world at all.
I thought that was taken as read :)

The sudden dearth of numbers in your response is a hopeful sign - Play to your strengths eh.

I presume as you have responded on behalf of Kaosium he will reciprocate [and at greater length no doubt].
 
game for a laugh

By the way, what you've done here is compare apples and pears. The original "ToD before 9pm = 98%" is based on the lack of the additional conditional information that Meredith in fact did NOT die before 9pm. This new knowledge changes this probability to "ToD before 9pm = 0%".

It's therefore entirely compatible with the conditional probability (given we know Meredith did not die before 9pm) that Meredith died between 9pm and 10pm of 96%. Sorry if you don't understand this though. I can explain it again if it would help...
PS what happened to the superfluous "signature" full stop....?


Nonsense, its all turnips.

Give it up sir - you should have stuck with the 25% correction. It was dumb but funny.

In any case in truther Cartwheel world is 'definitely dead by 9.20' now off the table ???
Or 'dead at 9.05' as KL's 'science' had it.

& Still ignoring the possible 7pm meal start time I see - funny science this is, ignore data that doesn't point to Lone Wolves.

Of course if you wish to explain, using your 'stats'.......

Given that the subject is alive at 9.00 and according to your post I linked to above there was a 95% probability of a ToD between 9.00 & 9.20 - How this rises to only 96% by 10.00 ?

....... Then be my guest - I'm game for a laugh ;)
 
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movie time

& Still ignoring the possible 7pm meal start time I see - funny science this is, ignore data that doesn't point to Lone Wolves.

platonov,

How do you square a 7 PM meal start time with the length of the movie that they watched?
 
...the list of unsubstantiated claims in this thread continues:
[table=head;sort=2]Poster|Post|Claim
platonov|649|the possible 7pm meal start time
[/table]
 
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When crickets meet turnips !

Nonsense, its all turnips.

Give it up sir - you should have stuck with the 25% correction. It was dumb but funny.

In any case in truther Cartwheel world is 'definitely dead by 9.20' now off the table ???
Or 'dead at 9.05' as KL's 'science' had it.

& Still ignoring the possible 7pm meal start time I see - funny science this is, ignore data that doesn't point to Lone Wolves.

Of course if you wish to explain, using your 'stats'.......

Given that the subject is alive at 9.00 and according to your post I linked to above there was a 95% probability of a ToD between 9.00 & 9.20 - How this rises to only 96% by 10.00 ?

....... Then be my guest - I'm game for a laugh ;)


crickets eh






4 to be precise :)
 
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How do you square a 7PM meal time with the testimony of Meredith's friends?


D'oh

It's based on the testimony of MK's friends :covereyes

No doubt you are unaware that the meal may have begun as late as 7 (as per testimony).


45k posts and while fixating on lone wolves doing swan lake and throwing turnips thru windows you seem to have missed the basic facts of the case. Yet Again.

Note - This is the CT forum, the cartwheel thread is thataway ---->
 
D'oh

It's based on the testimony of MK's friends :covereyes




45k posts and while fixating on lone wolves doing swan lake and throwing turnips thru windows you seem to have missed the basic facts of the case. Yet Again.

Note - This is the CT forum, the cartwheel thread is thataway ---->

You have a cite for the 7PM meal time testimony from Meredith's friends?
 
You have a cite for the 7PM meal time testimony from Meredith's friends?



45k posts and while fixating on lone wolves doing swan lake and throwing turnips thru windows you seem to have missed the basic facts of the case. Yet Again.

Note - This is the CT forum, the cartwheel thread is thataway ---->


ETA I do :)
 
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45k posts and while fixating on lone wolves doing swan lake and throwing turnips thru windows you seem to have missed the basic facts of the case. Yet Again.

Note - This is the CT forum, the cartwheel thread is thataway ---->

Massei:

He recalled the data from various testimonies, from which, as he observed, it emerged that at around 18:00-18:30 pm, Meredith began to eat a homemade pizza with various toppings (cheese, mozzarella, eggplant and perhaps also onions) and then ate apple crumble with ice cream.

Robyn Butterworth:

She did not really remember what time they had eaten, perhaps around six.

Sophie Purton: (Michelli)

On 17 November, P. made a new statement to the magistrate proceeding, without confirming the first statements to clarify the time at which the four friends began to eat in the house of A. and R. (Perhaps 18:00, or even earlier)

I don't see the testimony from Amy Frost quoted, perhaps it is in a different report? I see a mention of 18:30-19:00 also in Massei which is in conflict with the first statement I quoted. However the testimony is not quoted there either. I would be interested in seeing a quote from one of her friends with the 7PM.
 
see-thru petticoats

Massei:






I don't see the testimony from Amy Frost quoted, perhaps it is in a different report? I see a mention of 18:30-19:00 also in Massei which is in conflict with the first statement I quoted. However the testimony is not quoted there either. I would be interested in seeing a quote from one of her friends with the 7PM.


Keep looking ...

And when you find it post it on the Cartwheel thread and see if you can get a response on why .............

This has been pointed out to KL & LJ several times but is never incorporated into the highly scientific gastric analysis ..... to do so would have invalidated the Lone Wolf/Definitely dead by 9.20 arguments.


I'm guessing it will be ......crickets ............again :)

PS Your 'slip' is starting to show ;)
 
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Keep looking ...

And when you find it post it on the Cartwheel thread and see if you can get a response on why .............




I'm guessing it will be ......crickets ............again :)

I don't see a quote from one of Meredith's friends testimony putting the mealtime at 7PM but as I stated I am interested in seeing it. I make no claim that I am perfect or that it is not possible I missed reading a quote from one of them putting the mealtime at 7PM. At this point I consider your claim to be unsupported and I have no intention of looking further.
 

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