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American astrologer Predicted Japan Earthquake

From the USGS:

•Magnitude 6.8 MYANMAR March 24, 2011
•Magnitude 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 22, 2011
•Magnitude 6.3 VANUATU March 17, 2011
•Magnitude 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 11, 2011
•Magnitude 5.4 MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION March 10, 2011
•Magnitude 6.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA March 09, 2011
•Magnitude 7.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 09, 2011
•Magnitude 6.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS March 07, 2011
•Magnitude 6.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION March 06, 2011
•Magnitude 4.7 ARKANSAS February 28, 2011
•Magnitude 6.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND February 21, 2011
•Magnitude 4.1 ARKANSAS February 18, 2011
•Magnitude 6.6 OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE February 14, 2011
•Magnitude 6.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE February 11, 2011
•Magnitude 6.5 CELEBES SEA February 10, 2011
•Magnitude 7.2 SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN January 18, 2011
•Magnitude 7.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS January 13, 2011
•Magnitude 6.6 VANUATU January 09, 2011
•Magnitude 4.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA January 08, 2011
•Magnitude 7.1 ARAUCANIA, CHILE January 02, 2011
•Magnitude 7.0 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA January 01, 2011
 
Astro Teacher said:
Wrong. No it doesn't. Where is it written any earthquake prediction needs to have only one date? That's a question that needs to be answered.
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OK, conider it answered. On average here is a 110 year average for earthquakes on this mudball, per annum:

8 and higher 1
7 - 7.9 15
6 - 6.9 134
5 - 5.9 1319
4 - 4.9 13,000 (estimated)
3 - 3.9 130,000 (estimated)
1 -2.9 1,300,000 (estimated)

Norm
 
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Astro Teacher said:
The rest of what you said proves you haven't read his earthquake predictions. This is also the same astrologer who predicted El Nino and La Nina years before anyone else.
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The term "El Nino" has been in use for well over 100 years. Exactly how old IS your pet astrologer?

Or is this another case of predicting (or claiming a prediction of) something after it occurs?

ETA: And I don't suppose you'd have a link to a specific, verifiable prediction that was made before such an event, do you (he asked hopefully)?
 
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Astro Teacher said:
He forecasted the Japan quake, named the date, country and magnitude.
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He wrote (evidence exists he did so after the event) that an earthquake withing a certain range would occur on a variety of dates somewhere in the Ring of Fire. That's a correct statement, is it not? If not, where is the factual error? If it is correct, then the "prediction" is nothing more than a guess. (What happened with the tsunami part of it, by the way?)

Whether you want to believe it isn't even relevant.
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That's a very good thing for both of us, isn't it? Skeptics don't believe claims without evidence. You've fallen way short of the mark.

What's more telling is that, if astrology held any type of scientific rigor, there would have been a slew of astrologers correctly predicting earthquakes all the time. Not just one. In a poxy-looking weblog. There would be astrological journals where authoritative and skilled practitioners would publish peer-reviewed articles and other experts would chime in with doubt, praise or discussion. There would be, by now, a solid understanding of the mechanims of astrological prediction and a testable method of gleaning increasing levels of detail.

Am I getting through to you? Would this not be the case? Why isn't it? Why do you present such questionable data for your wild claim? Don't you have anything better or more convincing?

Anyway, if you don't care that we don't believe your "evidence", begone. We don't. Deal with it. Come back when you have strong evidence.
 
Right, so anyway, let's see just which "significant" earthquakes have happened since March 10th. I'll highlight those which can be fitted in to the "predictions".

2011/03/10 17:08:36 6.6 BALI SEA
2011/03/11 05:46:24 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:15:40 7.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/11 06:25:50 7.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/03/22 07:18:48 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/22 09:44:30 6.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2011/03/24 13:55:12 6.8 MYANMAR

[Edited to add]Significant dates so far, those which actually were significant highlighted:
March
10
1118
19
20
21
[/Edited to add]

So there you have it. There have been 7 significant (6.6+) quakes since March 10th. 3 of those fit the "prediction", and that is primarily because the second and third of those three are aftershocks of the first and occurred on the same day.

So, at best, these predictions are less-than-a-half to a fifth right, depending on how you decide to count it. Another way to look at it is that of the 6 days so far predicted to be significant only 1 is and 3 of the days predicted to be insignificant were actually significant. Which would make it 1 hit and 9 misses. So far. I feel a running tally coming on.
 
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Astro Teacher said:
The human ignoramus has a tendency to see the one or two or three consistent hits and attribute no significance at all to it, preferring to ignore the myriad other predictions that did come true.
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No, the human ignoramus has a tendency to see the one or two or three consistent hits and attribute immense significance to them, preferring to ignore the myriad other predictions that failed to come true.

The scientific method requires you to consider misses as well as hits.
 
BTMO said:
Ok, try this for specific.

I *guarantee* there will an earthquake of magnitude 4.0 ± 1.0 on March 30th ± 3 days (NZ local time) within 20 km of the city of Christchurch.

You'll note that this prediction is several orders of magnitude more specific than the one you started this nonsensical thread on. It names a specific week, a specific magnitude (within a range) and more importantly, a specific location within 20km - not pretty much the entire Pacific basin.

And just for fun, here is a link to a website so you can check in on those 6 days to see how powerful my predictive powers are. I think you will find it significantly more accurate than your nonsensical woo site.

http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/recent_quakes.html
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OOoohhh! Close - but I am not claiming this one. It was 60 km (vs god only knows how many thousands of miles for the astrologer...) from the point I predicted. Otherwise, it was a good match. Keep watching...
 
Astro Teacher said:
The Japan earthquake prediction was accurate, and dated that I read.

The other predictions of coming earthquakes includes places, specific dates and expected magnitudes of quakes.

How can you fake a prediction before any event? Either it happens or doesn't happen. That's plain common sense.

Where is it written you can ignore a prediction just because you don't believe anything?

Who cares if you don't believe? You wouldn't even comment if you didn't want to believe anything.

So what?

That's just plain common sense.
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Predicting an earthquake in an earthquake zone is no great feat. I notice that you cannot direct me to one of his predictions concerning a future event.
 
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This reminds me of cold reading. The psychic cycles through a list of, say, likely names and the mark picks one out. "She knew my mothers name!"

I'm fond of saying that the lottery is a tax on the statistically impaired, believers of this sort suffer from a similar affliction.
 
Theodore White:

(...)
Told I'm clairvoyant, I can only describe myself as a polymath who learned astrology as a child. I advanced to judicial astrology, interpreting Natal Horoscopes & Secondary Progressions. My expertise ranges from long-range climate/weather forecasting to economics to personal horoscope readings to the astrological world prophecies of Michel Nostradamus - all based on the principles of Mundane Astrology.
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http://accumetweather.blogspot.com/
 
Slimething said:
What happened with the tsunami part of it, by the way?
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and the trouble with the nuclear power plants?

It seems that without those two, the quake wouldn't have been overly problematic, precisely because it doesn't take much to "predict" earthquakes in the area.
 
We still have to touch upon the fact that there is no mechanism for astrology. The planets have no influence upon us,the whole thing is sheer nonsense.
 
I'm still waiting for Astro to give me a firm prediction from the far seeing wonder man about a future event. I am not holding my breath.
 
Astro Teacher said:
Wrong. No it doesn't. Where is it written any earthquake prediction needs to have only one date? That's a question that needs to be answered.

The rest of what you said proves you haven't read his earthquake predictions. This is also the same astrologer who predicted El Nino and La Nina years before anyone else.

Most of you have proven you can't read anything longer than a couple of lines. It proves many of you are not skeptics at all, just being lazy. No wonder real skeptics don't spend time on this forum.

Reading most of your comments you guys can't think for yourselves and never can admit when you are just plain wrong.

Real skeptics can admit these things and change. The false skeptics do not.
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Everything you say here may well be true. But its significance pales in comparision to the following: If Mr. White has the ability he claims, thousands of lives may be saved by his predictions. Thus if there's a prediction on his site that falls into this category, it must be made available to the widest number of people as quickly as possible.

Perhaps we are lazy as you charge, but that may be because we're disbelievers and don't know any better. But apparently you do know better. Therefore you must contemplate this: There are people alive today who may soon die because they are unaware of the information currently on Mr. White's site. If I were in your position -- privy to information that could potentially save thousands of people -- I wouldn't be wasting my time arguing about what does or doesn't constitute an accurate prediction for an event that has already happened. Instead, I'd be vastly more concerned about disasters that have yet to occur, and what I can do to prevent them.

So please answer, irrespective of your low opinion of us: Is there a prediction currently residing on Mr. White's site that is specific, unambiguous, and unlikely? Even if you expect that, in our ignorance and denial, we'll just ridicule the prediction, what does that matter when lives can be saved?
 
Marcus said:
This reminds me of cold reading. The psychic cycles through a list of, say, likely names and the mark picks one out. "She knew my mothers name!"
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This is way more ridiculous. This astrologer's version of a "psychic" reading would be: Your mother was born in a country where English is spoken. Her name is the same as that of the wife of a U.S. president or a relative of a British monarch.

Does someone want to talk about the logarithmic nature of the earthquake scale in order to explain that while 6.6 to 7.9+ sounds like a very precise "prediction," it in fact covers a ridiculously large range. In fact it is somewhat silly to call it a range because there is a plus sign after the second number. Also a second range is included in the prediction using weasel words: 8.9 to 9.2. In reality, he would have claimed a hit for anything between 6.6 and 9.5. How big is that range?
 
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