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No Fly zones over Libya?


Leaving aside the fact that it does indeed seem the "liberators" are nothing more than a few hundred, or a few thousand at the most, AK-47 waving thugs, the economic issues are interesting.

Libya was something of a local economic powerhouse - driving prosperity in Egypt and Tunisia as well as its neighbours to the south.

Even assuming Libya's assets are soon unfrozen and the oil soon begins to flow - which is a big assumption - both Egypt and Tunisia will have their own economies badly hit as migrant workers flood back home and remittances dry up. So will countries like Mali and Niger - leaving aside the numbers of their migrant workers who will be slaughtered as "mercenaries".

On the upside, the flag making factories in China got a big economic boost - but that stimulus was just a one off hit in January so as to be shipped in time to Benghazi in mid Feb.

Well done, Humanitarian Liberals - what a raging success you are presiding over.
 
Uh, funk de fino is Scottish.
But don't let that interfere with your little rant.

Scotland/England/America/France same thing. All corporate controlled "democracies" that rob from the poor and give to the rich and engage in wars on whims of fancy.
 
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Our old friend "Doctor in Misrata" is still feeling quite chirpy. Apparently Government forces having destroyed all the ambulances and flattened the centre city, are about to raze the hospital to the ground. Please send many many more airstrikes.

Reuters: Doctor in Misurata saying govt tanks are closing in on the hospital and shelling the area

#Gaddafi tanks are now bombing the #Misratahospital!!!!!! #Libya #feb17"
 
Which is great, except instead of putting more ducks in the air for the F-15s to shoot down, the people you fight now have moved on to tactics where air power is of little use. IED's, un-uniformed and city-fighting.
It's like having prepared an all-star team for a footbal match, only to find out your opponents switched to cricket.
F-15s can drop bombs too, and their mere presence keeps any sane opposing pilot on the ground.

Well, the modern professional national army is an historical and even geographical anomaly.
By definition, yes.

Something of the last few hundred years, and mainly a European phenomenon. Much of Africa never adopted it.

I even wonder how long it will last. With dirty wars where advanced weaponry is of little use, a need for large numbers of boots on the ground and a political climate where own casualties are a major issue, it makes more sense to use foreign mercenaries.
No, it doesn't. Nothing to prevent that from becoming a bloodbath, and if a bloodbath is what you want we can actually do that quite nicely with air power. you say "but the political climate won;t allow that", well it doesn't allow foreign mercenaries either.
 
Interesting article in NYTimes with a member of the rebel council.

It suggest that the Benghazians maybe happy to just to advance up to the edge of Sirt
Mr. Tarhouni said he was hopeful that the rebels would be able to retake Ajdabiya soon, and face less resistance from government troops as they progressed toward Surt, a Qaddafi stronghold. “If Ajdabiya is liberated, I think the dynamics will change,” he said.
Although he concedes that with only a 1000 fighters they will need extensive tactical air support to achieve this. If they move up to the outskirts of Sirt, they will by then control the lion's share of the oil reserves - although a considerable portion is also found in land from Tripoli.

Also interesting that Britain may have be withholding delivery of currency until the revolt broke out
Mr. Tarhouni, the finance minister, said cash was not a problem right now for the rebels because they had money from the central banks in Benghazi and other rebel-held cities. They have also been promised access to 1.4 billion dinars, or almost $1.1 billion, in currency that Britain printed for the Qaddafi government but had not yet delivered, he said.
I am not sure whether this represents effective theft or counterfeiting or both on behalf of the British government. I would have thought such action was illegal under international law. I know the British got very upset that the Germans set up counterfeiting factories in Sachsenhausen.

All told, it looks like we may be on the brink of seeing the 193rd UN member being formed. Expect a lot of commentary in coming days about how Libya was an artificial colonial creation anyway and many journalists showing off newly acquired classical knowledge telling us that back in Roman times one one was greek influenced and the other was phoenician and as such the division of the country is entirely logical and to be welcomed.
 
Yeah, but those are civilian structures, not military. City councils don't command offensives.

The Le Monde journalist in Benghazi indicates that the rebels do have a military HQ, staffed with some of the aforementioned defectors. What they do control and command over, I cannot be sure. They also made efforts towards forming a provisional governement, but yet again, I cannot claim to which extent it does control things.

I think that if the current stalemate continues, there will be a need for a political way out for all the actors, and that the insurgents will have to try to sort out the organisation problem one way of another. Maybe not for the best.
 
F-15s can drop bombs too, and their mere presence keeps any sane opposing pilot on the ground.
Actually it's mainly the superior radar-controlled command and control facilities that do so.

Did any USAF F-15 even make a kill in a dogfight, ever? Most are from AWACS-guided interceptions. Which any jet with an AMRAAM can perform.

By definition, yes.
My bad, I meant the professional, all-volunteer national army.

No, it doesn't. Nothing to prevent that from becoming a bloodbath, and if a bloodbath is what you want we can actually do that quite nicely with air power. you say "but the political climate won;t allow that", well it doesn't allow foreign mercenaries either.
Air power can kill people, but it can not hold ground. Only boots on the ground can. And while public calls for a bloodbath in another country are considered unacceptable, the evidence is Americans don't even care enough about it to know the order of magnitude of the number of foreign deaths their military actions caused. Bloodbaths are politically fine, as long as the media doesn't pay too close attention.

Now, about the political reality of foreign mercenaries. They're listed as contractors now, and contractors have been outnumbering the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan for years.

How many of those contractors are foreign mercenaries? I don't know, I haven't seen the figure for contractors broken down to country of origin and job-description.
But I do know that back in 2004: In February, Blackwater USA, a North Carolina-based Pentagon contractor, began hiring former combat personnel in Chile, offering them up to $4,000 a month to guard oil wells in Iraq. The company flew the first batch of 60 former commandos to a training camp in North Carolina. These recruits will eventually wind up in Iraq where they will spend six months to a year. And these weren't Blackwater's only foreign employees.
The political climate appears to be perfectly fine with foreign mercenaries, if it prevents casualties among US soldiers.
 
The Le Monde journalist in Benghazi indicates that the rebels do have a military HQ, staffed with some of the aforementioned defectors. What they do control and command over, I cannot be sure. They also made efforts towards forming a provisional governement, but yet again, I cannot claim to which extent it does control things.

I think that if the current stalemate continues, there will be a need for a political way out for all the actors, and that the insurgents will have to try to sort out the organisation problem one way of another. Maybe not for the best.
I think at the moment their HQ's main objective is to gain awareness about and control of its forces.

If Gadaffi lasts long enough, the country might split up. That would allow us to declare victory and go home. But I expect the rebels will try very hard to conquer the rest of the country.
 
I am having a little trouble understanding this new doctrine that people waving AK-47s are civilians that must be protected by air strikes. It seems that some civilians waving AK-47s are more equal than others

Full article
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...upposed-to-be-like-this-in-free-Benghazi.html

"They were beaten on their feet and the woman was slapped around the face until she admitted planning an attack on the mosque," said Basim Mohamed, muezzin at Quiche mosque.

Inside the car they say they found an AK-47 and 10 cartridges of ammunition. [Oh well, obviously anyone with a AK-47 deserves summary execution ......]

A frenzied mob formed outside the mosque as word spread that Gaddafi assassins had been cornered. It only dispersed when rebel gunmen arrived to take away the suspects to an uncertain fate.

It wasn't supposed to be like this in free Benghazi. After throwing off the shackles of Gaddafi's brutal rule, Libya's young opposition movement is rounding up suspected opponents and delivering its own brutal form of justice in a city living in fear that they have been penetrated by a fifth column of government loyalists.

Rebel leaders admit that dozens of Gaddafi supporters have been arrested or killed.
.....

Foreign workers fled the city long ago in fear of being mistaken for a government-hired mercenary.

.......



Mustafa Gerhiani, the urbane spokesman for the rebels' provisional government in the east, said there were several hundred government supporters in the city who had formed sleeper cells.

"We know where they live and many have been rounded up. There are people looking for them. A lot have been caught and killed," he said.

However, he added that some had been detained for their own protection and that the revolutionary council did not condone mob justice.

"But if they start shooting what can you do?"

Well, we now know you most certainly can't shoot back. I suppose you are meant to offer them tea and cake. Unless of course you are Israeli when it is quite OK to fire rockets at insurgeants hiding in civilian areas.

The New Humanitarian Doctrine is very hard to understand.
 
The political climate appears to be perfectly fine with foreign mercenaries, if it prevents casualties among US soldiers.

How about this interpretation:
Political climate is perfectly fine with foreign mercaneries, if it prevents casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Neither of which is the case in Libya, is it? All reports indicate the foreign mercaneries execute operations ordinary Libyans refuse to do, from executions of wounded to destruction of vital infrastructure.

McHrozni
 
It's wrong to say the campaign isn't hurting him. It is, his forces would be overruning Bhengazi if it wasn't for it. He is sitting on a huge pot of gold and savings which can last him for a long time, but not forever.

The strikes are not crippling however, that is true.

McHrozni

How much has he actually got, though?
I know a load of assets were frozen.
 
He can easily make this a very drawn-out conflict, unless some more steps are taken (e.g. arming and training the rebels).

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20046719-503543.html

(AP) Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged Wednesday that there is no clear end to the international military enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya, and says no one was ever under any illusion that the assault would last just two or three weeks.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...tripoli-hobbled-by-military-shortcomings.html

Opposition forces are outnumbered and lack adequate logistics and supply lines, U.S. Ambassador to Libya, Gene Cretz, told Congressional staff members yesterday, said a person at the briefing who spoke on condition of anonymity. … snip …

“The rebels are too disorganized to march on Tripoli and overrun it at any time soon,” Mats Berdal, a professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College in London, said in an interview.

… snip …

The rebels are a pretty disorganized pack and they were blinded by their early success,” Karl-Heinz Kamp, research director at the NATO Defense College in Rome, said in an interview. “My gut feeling is this could end in a stalemate.”

Make no mistake. A stalemate is a victory for Gaddafi over Obama and NATO.

Meanwhile ...

http://www.anhourago.co.uk/show.aspx?l=8324268&d=501

Libya rebels: Gaddafi could be right about al-Qaeda

… snip …

In fact, two documents strongly back Gaddafi on this issue.

The first is a secret cable to the State Department from the US embassy in Tripoli in 2008, part of the WikiLeaks trove, entitled "Extremism in Eastern Libya", which revealed that this area is rife with anti-American, pro-jihad sentiment.

According to the 2008 cable, the most troubling aspect "... is the pride that many eastern Libyans, particularly those in and around Dernah, appear to take in the role their native sons have played in the insurgency in Iraq … [and the] ability of radical imams to propagate messages urging support for and participation in jihad."

The second document, or rather set of documents, are the so-called Sinjar Records, captured al-Qaeda documents that fell into American hands in 2007. They were duly analysed by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy at West Point. Al-Qaeda is a bureaucratic outfit and the records contain precise details on personnel, including those who came to Iraq to fight American and coalition forces and, when necessary, commit suicide.

The West Point analysts' statistical study of the al-Qaeda personnel records concludes that one country provided "far more" foreign fighters in per capita terms than any other: namely, Libya.

The records show that the "vast majority of Libyan fighters that included their home town in the Sinjar Records resided in the country's northeast". Benghazi provided many volunteers. So did Dernah, a town about 200 kms east of Benghazi, in which an Islamic emirate was declared when the rebellion against Gaddafi started.

New York Times reporter Anthony Shadid even spoke with Abdul-Hakim al-Hasadi who promulgated the Islamic emirate. Al-Hasadi "praises Osama bin Laden's 'good points'," Shadid reported, though he prudently denounced the 9/11 attacks on the United States. Other sources have said that this keen admirer of Osama would be most influential in the formation of any provisional government.

The West Point study of the Sinjar Records calculates that of the 440 foreign al-Qaeda recruits whose home towns are known, 21 came from Benghazi, thereby making it the fourth most common home town listed in the records. Fifty-three of the al-Qaeda recruits came from Darnah, the highest total of any of the home towns listed in the records. The second highest number, 51, came from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. But Darnah (80,000) has less than two per cent the population of Riyadh. So Darnah contributed "far and away the largest per capita number of fighters".

As former CIA operations officer Brian Fairchild writes, amid "the apparent absence of any plan for post-Gaddafi governance, an ignorance of Libya's tribal nature and our poor record of dealing with tribes, American government documents conclusively establish that the epicentre of the revolt is rife with anti-American and pro-jihad sentiment, and with al-Qaeda's explicit support for the revolt, it is appropriate to ask our policy makers how American military intervention in support of this revolt in any way serves vital US strategic interests".

Now wouldn't it be ironic if Obama and NATO are helping al-Qaeda take over a country? :jaw-dropp
 
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/102656

Turkey has been reported to be delaying agreement on a Nato command structure for the no-fly zone over Libya.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has warned that the rules of engagement in Libya must be restricted to protecting civilians, enforcing the arms embargo and no-fly zone, and the provision of humanitarian aid.

This would exclude any further air strikes against Libyan leader Muammar Gadaffi's ground forces.

... snip ...

But in Paris French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe boasted that the international military operation may last days or weeks - but not months.

Others disagreed, with Russia's former ambassador to Libya Vladimir Chamov warning that Col Gadaffi could hold off coalition forces for months, still enjoys broad public support and will not step down.

The hostilities could turn Libya into a hotbed of instability resembling Iraq or Somalia, he said.

LOL! No, it wouldn't resemble Iraq.
 

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