GeeMack
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Sorry golfy, Anita Ikonen math doesn't fly here.
Maybe he can hear them thinking about how they heard his thoughts. Duh.
Assistance required for telepathy proof
- Thread starter golfy
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- polygraphs telepathy
Sorry golfy, Anita Ikonen math doesn't fly here.
Maybe he can hear them thinking about how they heard his thoughts. Duh.
Hitch
Muse
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My mind is blown. Does that mean if we use a device that's only 20% accurate (that is to say wrong 4 times out of 5) and we use it to predict coin tosses and it's right 50% of the time that our test is now 250% reliable?
Or are we just throwing around gibberish numbers?
And a stake in the million dollars could not make them honest?
There are lots and lots of people out there who are willing to believe in everything, and I do not see why you could not approach people who believe in psychics, and the like, and find somebody who would believe you, and be willing to write down your thoughts for, say, 100,000 dollars!
I think that your insistence that everybody would lie about this only reveals that you are aware that people actually do not hear your thoughts.
fromdownunder
Philosopher
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I tried this earlier in the thread, and specifically asked golfy to reply in thread when he was about to start sending, so that I could turn noisy things off and concentrate on his message. He never replied, and then simply responded that he was getting bored and was going to leave the thread.
So I can only guess that he needs this thread so badly that he is simply an attention whore who is willing to continue the discussion several years in, after specifically saying he was leaving the thread to do further research.
Trust me, for $US100,000, even at current exchange rates I will still give it a go. But golfy backed off.
Norm
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
So what does this mean from page 14?
My laptop arrived today and I have just tried it with the polygraph equipment and the poly is functioning as far as the GSR channel is concerned. I will test the other channels when I have time as I am quite busy at the moment. When I am satisfied that the poly is all OK I will then have to construct a test scheme on the poly machine and start testing. This may be quite a while in the future but the sooner I get it done the better.
Your lack of understanding makes things very difficult - how does a 20% accurate polygraph i.e. it gets one answer correct out of every 5, then get it right 50% of the time on predicting coin tosses? That would be it getting it right 50% of the time i.e. one right one wrong on average i.e. 50% accurate not 20% accurate. Duh!
I have done more research as well as my other job, running my own company. I now have demonstrated the cat ship test predicting correctly the RX’s word using a GSR. I am one step closer to proving telepathy. I’ll add more test results as I get them.
I am going to ascertain the accuracy of the GSR in numerous spoken word cat ship tests to see how accurate it is. If it is wrong most of the time then the test done with the Doctor is irrelevant. If it gets the answers correct 80% of the time than that would mean there is an 80% chance that the Doctor did hear my thoughts etc. Not predicting the actual accuracy – just updating on my next move towards proof.
golfy
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
Exactly what I mene is that you seem to have something that you claim is a polygraph that needs obsolescent hardware and software to run at all. You've only "tested" the GSR part of whatever it is, apparently by getting it to light up some LEDs, although without having any training or experience it's unlikely that even this meagre result has any significance.
You have yet to "construct a test scheme", whatever that means, you admit that it "may be quite a while in the future" before you can even start testing the equipment and you have no real way of doing so in any case because even if the bits and pieces that you're calling a polygraph work, you lack the expertise to interpret any of the results that might be produced anyway.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
There was a 50% chance of the Doctor correctly guessing the answer, even if she could not hear your thoughts.
Including an unreliable polygraph in the experiment just adds another possible way for the results to be misleading, making them even less reliable.
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Hitch
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So, you're changing your claim? You're no longer saying that you can telepathically send messages, but have a polygraph machine that can tell you what a person wrote down?
I have been reading through some posts and the one that stands out as making the most sense is one by Pixel42
I totally agree with the most of the above statements and agree that providing proof is the only way of demonstrating my claims.
By my assessment, which may be wrong, the Doctor can certainly hear my thoughts and I would almost but not quite, willing to drop everything that I am trying to prove if I was wrong about her. I am not basing my conclusion on just the GSR test, but when I think deliberate thoughts to her she responds in a predictable way to what I am thinking.
One example is she is a fairly attractive woman. If I complemented her on her looks, apart from what she said as a reply what would she do visually? Perhaps flush or smile with a small “You have made me feel good about myself” smile etc. I look for the visual responses as rarely do people respond to my thoughts directly.
I actually thought to her “You have a lovely shaped mouth, and pretty eyes. Very attractive.” At that point she tilted her head to the side and slightly back and then smiled sweetly. This to me is confirmation from years of experience of doing these types of visual “tests” that she can her my thoughts. I did a few other tests as well which I will not go through as they are all the same format – think words that should have a specific effect on the other person and study any changes in their demeanour after a period of observing them to see how they are before I think to them. Compare one with the other and make a conclusion.
When the GSR was only 3 lights on the “have you the got the same word” question and off the scale on the “have you the got a different word “ question, then it was no surprise to me at the time that the GSR responded with different indications to the two questions. The surprise was that the GSR readings were so extremely different. That made concluding which answer to go with to determine which word she had easy. Such disparity between readings in my opinion is far more than a 50% level.
I have arranged to do some tests this weekend using a cat ship test with the spoken word to work out a possible assessment of the GSRs accuracy in such a test environment.
If the outcome is it gets the correct answer 30% of the time, then it can be roughly assumed that the GSR is only 30% accurate in one test and therefore was indicating a 30% chance that the Doctor can hear me telepathically. If the GSR gets the correct answer 80% of the time, then it can be roughly assumed that the GSR is 80% accurate in one test and therefore was indicating a 80% chance that the Doctor can hear me telepathically.
That is how statistics work – 1 test x the accuracy of the expected. A coin toss would therefore be 1 x 0.5 = a 50% chance of being correct which as we know would be correct for a coin in one test. A poly is expected to be 80% accurate as research has shown so if a poly was used then it would be assumed that 1 test x the expected (0.8) would be 80% certainty that she can hear my thoughts.
A GSR is not a coin. It is know than people stress when trying to cover up the truth and stay calm when telling the truth. An instrument that measures this stress to base a conclusion on which word the Doctor has is therefore better than a coin – i.e. gives a greater assessment rate than a coin would – 51% or higher biased towards making an accurate assessment. It may be as high as 100% under certain circumstances. If the Doctor was retested with multiple cat ship and poly tests and it was found that she can hear my thoughts at a 99.99% certainty level, then the GSR initially used in the first test could be described as giving an accurate result based on its readings.
If a coin had done the thing, it would be well known that that was a meaningless result only indicated by pure chance – there is no reason to believe that telepathy can be proven by multiple coin tosses to predict answers. It can be safely concluded that you can determine if a person can hear me or not with multiple GSR tests.
Therefore this statement is wrong
I agree there is insufficient evidence to draw a water tight conclusion that I an telepathic but there is an interesting bias towards it, meaning the cat ship test did actually work as expected.
If I cannot conclude from the tests that have given results that show at greater than 50% certainly that I am telepathic, then you certainly cannot conclude from the tests that
I have shown the test results to a researcher in Cambridge UK and the response was “its good to see you are having some successful results!”
golfy
I totally agree with the most of the above statements and agree that providing proof is the only way of demonstrating my claims.
By my assessment, which may be wrong, the Doctor can certainly hear my thoughts and I would almost but not quite, willing to drop everything that I am trying to prove if I was wrong about her. I am not basing my conclusion on just the GSR test, but when I think deliberate thoughts to her she responds in a predictable way to what I am thinking.
One example is she is a fairly attractive woman. If I complemented her on her looks, apart from what she said as a reply what would she do visually? Perhaps flush or smile with a small “You have made me feel good about myself” smile etc. I look for the visual responses as rarely do people respond to my thoughts directly.
I actually thought to her “You have a lovely shaped mouth, and pretty eyes. Very attractive.” At that point she tilted her head to the side and slightly back and then smiled sweetly. This to me is confirmation from years of experience of doing these types of visual “tests” that she can her my thoughts. I did a few other tests as well which I will not go through as they are all the same format – think words that should have a specific effect on the other person and study any changes in their demeanour after a period of observing them to see how they are before I think to them. Compare one with the other and make a conclusion.
When the GSR was only 3 lights on the “have you the got the same word” question and off the scale on the “have you the got a different word “ question, then it was no surprise to me at the time that the GSR responded with different indications to the two questions. The surprise was that the GSR readings were so extremely different. That made concluding which answer to go with to determine which word she had easy. Such disparity between readings in my opinion is far more than a 50% level.
I have arranged to do some tests this weekend using a cat ship test with the spoken word to work out a possible assessment of the GSRs accuracy in such a test environment.
If the outcome is it gets the correct answer 30% of the time, then it can be roughly assumed that the GSR is only 30% accurate in one test and therefore was indicating a 30% chance that the Doctor can hear me telepathically. If the GSR gets the correct answer 80% of the time, then it can be roughly assumed that the GSR is 80% accurate in one test and therefore was indicating a 80% chance that the Doctor can hear me telepathically.
That is how statistics work – 1 test x the accuracy of the expected. A coin toss would therefore be 1 x 0.5 = a 50% chance of being correct which as we know would be correct for a coin in one test. A poly is expected to be 80% accurate as research has shown so if a poly was used then it would be assumed that 1 test x the expected (0.8) would be 80% certainty that she can hear my thoughts.
A GSR is not a coin. It is know than people stress when trying to cover up the truth and stay calm when telling the truth. An instrument that measures this stress to base a conclusion on which word the Doctor has is therefore better than a coin – i.e. gives a greater assessment rate than a coin would – 51% or higher biased towards making an accurate assessment. It may be as high as 100% under certain circumstances. If the Doctor was retested with multiple cat ship and poly tests and it was found that she can hear my thoughts at a 99.99% certainty level, then the GSR initially used in the first test could be described as giving an accurate result based on its readings.
If a coin had done the thing, it would be well known that that was a meaningless result only indicated by pure chance – there is no reason to believe that telepathy can be proven by multiple coin tosses to predict answers. It can be safely concluded that you can determine if a person can hear me or not with multiple GSR tests.
Therefore this statement is wrong
I agree there is insufficient evidence to draw a water tight conclusion that I an telepathic but there is an interesting bias towards it, meaning the cat ship test did actually work as expected.
If I cannot conclude from the tests that have given results that show at greater than 50% certainly that I am telepathic, then you certainly cannot conclude from the tests that
either as the result are insufficient evidece, not "Either way it's clear that golfy doesn't have any telepathic ability".
I have shown the test results to a researcher in Cambridge UK and the response was “its good to see you are having some successful results!”
golfy
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Hitch
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An alternate explanation is that at the time you asked the first question she was just a bit annoyed at your insistence on conducting your pointless little "test." Then later after you refused to listen to anything she was telling you, she was quite irritated by you. After that you got lucky.
No it does not stand, you just do not understand the test and are confused because there are only two answer choices.
The test relies on the other person lying. If they heard me telepathically and a 100% accurate poly was used, then the indication as the GSR gave of not lying on the first question and lying on the second question would be 100% accurate.
This would mean that she has lied at a 100% certainly level that she did not have the other word to the word that I have. You could therefore conclude with 100% accuracy that she has a different word to me – I have ship, therefore she has with 100% certainty cat. Therefore she can hear my thoughts with 100% certainty Pixel42.
Statistics 1 test x 100% accurate poly = 100% accurate indication.
Your premise is the same as this. If I asked you on a 100% poly if you were male and you said “No” and if you were female and you said “No” then if the poly predicted that you were female as you lied with 100% certainty on the first question (100% poly) that the results would indicate that you are female. You recon that the result would be indeterminate as 50% accurate i.e. after analysis of results the conclusion is that you could be either male or female – the test produced no meaningfull result conclusion. Total rubbish, the test concluded with 100% certainty that you were female in one test as it is a 100% poly that makes no mistakes
If an 80% poly was used then the test would produce an 80% indication that you were female.
golfy
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
. . . now . . . take away the number you first thought of . . .
Meh, you don't have a 100% poly, or an 80% poly.
In fact, at, the very least in the case of the 'test' you reckon you've done on this poor doctor, you didn't have a polygraph at all. Everything you've claimed so far is based on nothing more (and probably less) than one might expect to acheive with a $cientologist's e-meter.
RoboTimbo
Hostile Nanobacon
Wouldn't it be easier to get rid of the polygraph, which we know is unreliable, since golfy assumes everyone lies about reading his thoughts?
If they say they heard ship, the real answer is they heard cat.
If they say they heard ship, the real answer is they heard cat.
Akhenaten
Heretic Pharaoh
I think I was wondering about something similar (it's hard to tell with all the double-guessiing involved in these 'tests').
I want to know what happens to the ??% poly-thingy if someone writes down "pumpkin".