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Project Astrometria:Global Cooling until 2100?

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You are wrong again :jaw-dropp: 400% is not significant unless
  1. statistcially significant (the usual scientific meaning)
  2. or has a large effect (the usual meaning)
You have no statistics
You have no idea what the size of the effects of the change would be.
You are thus wrong.

You know the paper is still open for discussion, instead of challenging me, why don't you challenge the author?

pg. 32 of the supplement reads- "That explains why the estimates of the Earth’s incident solar radiation entropy flux under the two different assumptions show a significant difference in magnitude."

I'm guessing you won't. I'm guessing you're much like the 9/11 conspiracy nutters that constantly challenge expert opinion on the internet, but simply don't have the constitution to "put it in writing".

We all know why of course, because deep down they know the truth, the experts are right and they are just playing around on the internet.

Ball's in your court RC. Are you going to stand behind your...expert opinion, challenge the author's claim that the difference is "significant" or are you going to hand wave and parrot me instead?

Polly want a cracker? :rolleyes:
 
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You know the paper is still open for discussion, instead of challenging me, why don't you challenge the author?
I know the paper is open for dicussion.
I am not "challenging" you. I am pointing out the obvious that even the authors point out, i.e. the consequencres of the paper are unknown as yet.

pg. 32 of the supplement reads- "That explains why the estimates of the Earth’s incident solar radiation entropy flux under the two different assumptions show a significant difference in magnitude."
Yes it does. So there is a significant difference in magnitude.". But that is not what you said to begin withe You said 400% is significant. That is not quite right. It is the 400% difference that is significant. 400% is just a number.

... nipped consipacy paranoia...
Ball's in your court RC. Are you going to stand behind your...expert opinion, challenge the author's claim that the difference is "significant" or are you going to hand wave and parrot me instead?

Polly want a cracker? :rolleyes:
Once more time: the author states the difference is significant. You stated that the number 400% was significant. That was not quite right. It is the 400% difference that is significant.

Polly ate your cracker! :rolleyes:
 
You're a liar, the answer has been given and even you have, unwittingly perhaps, participated in the discussion. I don't see the purpose of lying when you know the answer?
That is stupid - if I am a liar then you cite the post(s) where you pointed out the problems with the GSMs with no entropy flux parameter and the empirical estimates of climate sensitivity.
The "problem" with the GSMs with entropy flux parameter is the posibility that the Wu result will change their climate sensitivity estimate.
There is a limit on that change - we have independent estimates that these GSM will have to match.

The only thing that you have really mentioned is that they have uncertainies. That is so basic that anyone should know that is not a problem.
  • Empirical data has uncertainties so quantities derived from empirical data has uncertainties.
  • In addition when you look at the many papers using several techniques to get the estimates, you should expect the techniques to give similar but not the same estimates. That is a further source of uncertainty.
There is absolutely no agreement on what climate sensitivity is.
The idea that there is because there is consensus on anthropogenic warming is laughable.
...snipped usual alarmist rant...
I know there is no agreement on what value climate sensitivity takes because of the consensus. That is dumb and not what I said.

Maybe if I put it this way you will understand it:
The consensus is that CO2 is a primary driver of global warming.
That consensus is based on the evidence.
There is strong evidence of limits of climate sensitivity: A detailed look at climate sensitivity. Those results show that CO2 is a primary driver of global warming.

And here is the "consensus" bit that you are obsessing with:
If the climate sensitivity was such that CO2 was ruled out as a primary driver then no intelligent person would agree that CO2 is a primary driver of global warming. Climate scientiests are intelligent people. Thus there would be no consensus.
 
Was just another inane rambling then. Gotcha. :rolleyes:
No - it a reply to one of your inane inane ramblings. :rolleyes:

Again you're incorrect. It's only been determined that CO2 plays a bigger role. Perhaps this is why you continue to make some many mistakes in your reasoning?
For once you are correct and as usual including a pathetic insult.
So I will be pedantic just for you:
Wrong, 3bodyproblem: The project Astrometria are about the TSI. The TSI has been ruled out as a prrimary driver of the current global warming.

Nonsense, it means it's out by a considerable amount, on the order of 75% of the atmospheric latent heat. Do you know what latent heat is? Do you realize how much water there is in the atmosphere? I suppose you don't know what it means, but I do. So do the scientists, that's why they are writing papers and questioning the role of GHG's in climate change.
Obviously you cannot understand the Wu et al paper so here is the pertinant quote from the summary:
It is worth emphasizing that the difference (0.23 W m-2 K-1) between the estimate under the assumption I and the estimate under the assumption II (or the estimate from the conventional approach) represents about 77% of the typical entropy production rate associated with the atmospheric latent heat process (Peixoto et al., 1991).
My emphasis added.
It is the entropy production rate from the atmospheric latent heat process. It is not 77% of the latent heat.

lol, again incorrrect. If that were true they wouldn't be in the process of making changes to the GCM's. You simply don't know what you are talking about.
lol, again ignorant and a pathetic insult.
GCM's are always being updated. That is a basic scientific process. As new information about reality is gained, models are always updated.
I also cannot see where the Wu et al paper states that they are going to plug their value into a GSM. I expect someone will.


Yes, you can get to work by horse, ox and buggy or on the back of your Golden Retriever. Today most of us use cars and most of us get our climate sensitivity from GCM's and empirical methods! :jaw-dropp
Again, your immature parroting suggests you are lying about your level of education. This is the behavior of children not adults.
I did not parrot it - I corrected it. If you write something immature that suggests that you are lying about your level of knowledge then I will correct it.

You don't understand the paper at all. It's quite clear it does approach estimating the SORCE data, that's the entire purpose of the paper. Try reading it again. :D
Try to not display yout inability to understand the paper so clearly, 3bodyproblem.
The entire purpose of the paper is to calculate a value for the incident solar entropy flux using two models for the Sun (black and grey body). They do this from the model and the SORCE data.
Thus I stated
No. The value for flux (for this discussion) is wrong. The Wu value is right and has not been matched to empirical data yet.
As anyone with a knowledge of climate science would know and was not a total pedant, the "empirical data" not the SORCE data since entropy flux cannot be measured directly.

Once again, you don't understand any of this science so I'm not surprised at this statement. There's no empirical or direct measure of sensitivity. You simply don't understand sensitivity and how it is calculated using various techniques. Once again, all of these techniques give a range, the actual sensitivity isn't a range. These are estimates, if the new estimate is or isn't within the range it won't be "thrown away", it will be evaluated for accuracy and that accuracy will be given a weight for use in determining the new range of climate sensitivity.
Once again, you don't understand what you read so I'm not surprised at this rant.
Originally Posted by Reality Check
That is not likely for the simple reason that science is driven by empirical results. If something does not agree with the real world then it is thrown away.
The subject is science in general. For example the geocentric model of the solar system was thrown away when evidence that the Earth orbits the Sun was found (e.g. the phases of Venus).

Geting specific: There's no empirical or direct measure of climate sensitivity. There are the estimates of climate sensitivity from empirical data and GCMs: A detailed look at climate sensitivity.
Once again:
  • All of these techniques give a range.
  • Read Knutti and Hegerl (2008) especially figure 3.
    There are a few papers that derive estimates of less than 0 or greater than 10 degrees per doubling of CO2.
    There are papers that derive estimates of that are outside of the range of similar techniques.
    These results are known as outliers. They are generally ignored since it is likely that the papers are incorrect.
If the new estimate is not within the GSM range then it is an outlier. That makes it likely that the Wu et al paper is incorrect. But there alternatives:
  • GSMs that have entropy flux as a parameter are incorrect.
  • The real world is wrong :rolleyes: (or at least the estimates made using the real world).
There's no question in my mind that you don't have the education you say you do.
Then you are deluded:
I spent 7 years at university gaining a MSc in solid state physics. My thesis is not online but the paper from it is: Effect of localized spin fluctuations on transport properties in the one-band Wolff model
Fischer's calculations of the electrical resistivity, thermal resistivity, and thermopower of dilute alloys with nearly magnetic impurities are extended, using the one-band Wolff model, to the case where magnetic impurity scattering is large. A close similarity is seen to resistivities calculated in the two-band Wolff model, and a comparison is given with experimental data on RhFe and IrFe alloys.
 
Yes it does. So there is a significant difference in magnitude.". But that is not what you said to begin withe You said 400% is significant. That is not quite right. It is the 400% difference that is significant. 400% is just a number.


Once more time: the author states the difference is significant. You stated that the number 400% was significant. That was not quite right. It is the 400% difference that is significant.

Polly ate your cracker! :rolleyes:

:dl:

"Oh significant, I thought you said SIGnificant"

This is the problem with believers and alarmists, they're unwilling to admit when they are wrong and will continue to lie and make excuses when backed into a corner.

Easy to spot and so very easy to expose. :D
 
It is the entropy production rate from the atmospheric latent heat process. It is not 77% of the latent heat.

:dl:


"Oh latent heat, I thought you said LAtent heat"

Seeing as we were talking in fluxes and entropy, plus it's pretty obvious the units aren't the same I assumed you would be able to follow without having to walk you through it. I obviously gave you too much credit for being able to keep up with the rest of the class. My bad. hehe. (this is getting pathetic)
 
The NOAA report for February is up: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

so it's time to see how well Corbyn's predictions for February ...

2. Extreme cold in the USA in February

4. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in February

... compared to reality.

201102.gif


A mixed picture for both Europe and the USA, with about half of each being warmer than the baseline whilst the other half was colder. Both regions had a few areas with temperatures more than 3C colder than usual, so I'm going to be generous and award Corbyn half a hit for each of these two predictions.

Corbyn's results so far:

Predictions: 6

Hits: 2

Success rate: 33%

The four remaining Corbyn predictions on my original list are that UK/Europe and the USA will experience spring and summer weather which are "not the sort of Spring and Summer the warmists want". People who don't understand AGW often assume it predicts that every season in every region will be warmer than average, so I've interpreted this as a prediction that the next two seasons will be colder than average in the regions named. In order to test this I will continue to post the monthly temperature anomaly charts, and will award Corbyn a hit if at least two of the three months of March/April/May or June/July/August have average temperatures in either region at least 1 degree C cooler than the baseline.
 
This is the problem with believers and alarmists, they're unwilling to admit when they are wrong and will continue to lie and make excuses when backed into a corner.
What a stupid lie, 3bodyproblem.
  1. I am not a "believer"
  2. I am not an "alarmist"
  3. I am a skeptic who knows enough general science to evaluate what people say about climate sceince and (sometimes!) undewrstand the cited papers.
The stupidity comes in because that post is me admitting that I was wrong :jaw-dropp! I misinterpreted your initial statement.

So there is a "significant difference in magnitude.".
But that is not what you said to begin with You said "400% is significant". That is not quite right. It is the 400% difference that is significant. 400% is just a number.
 
"Oh latent heat, I thought you said LAtent heat"
:dl:
Yes you said latent heat. Given what you have displayed so far I was not surprised that you were ignorant enough to conmpare latent heat and entropy. Somoeone who seems ignorant of the basics of the scientific process could do that:
  1. Science is driven by empirical observations.
    So if you have estimates of climate sensitivity derived from empirical observations, they are considered more reliable than estimates from computer models or theory.
  2. A set of independent measuremts of the same quantity will tend to cluster around the value of that quantity. These are commonly expressed in terms of the average value and standard deviations (sigmas).
    So no one should be surprised that there are uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity.
  3. Multiple sets of independent measuremts of the same quantity using different techniques will tend to cluster around the value of that quantity. If a technique gives values that doi not fall within the rang of values of the other techniques then it is likely that
    • The technique is being used wrongly, e.g. an incorrect parameter is bing input.
    • The technique itself is incorrect.
    • Less likely is that the other techniques are incorrect.
This is the situation with the Wu et al paper.
There are many estimates of climate sensitivity derived from empirical data. There are many estimates of climate sensitivity derived from GCMs.
A GCM that has entropy flux as a parameter (if it exists: 3bodyproblem: Citations to the GCM's that have a solar entropy flux parameter) must give results that fall within the other estimates of climate sensitivity.
The existing range of climate sensitivity estimates shows that CO2 is (very likely in IPCC-speak) the primary driver of climate change.
Thus the Wu et al paper results will not impact climate sensitivity estimates enough to remove CO2 as the primary driver of climate change.

The exception is if all of the estimates of climate sensitivity derived from empirical data and other GSMs are incorrect, i.e. they have one or more problems. So I asked you whether you knoew of any in general or for a couple of specific papers.
So far no answer so maybe you do not know of any problems with the estimates of climate sensitivity derived from empirical data and other GSMs.
If that is the case just say so, 3bodyproblem.​
 
The NOAA report for February is up: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

so it's time to see how well Corbyn's predictions for February ...

2. Extreme cold in the USA in February

4. Extreme cold in Britain and Europe in February

... compared to reality.

[qimg]http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm222/Pixel42/201102.gif[/qimg]

A mixed picture for both Europe and the USA, with about half of each being warmer than the baseline whilst the other half was colder. Both regions had a few areas with temperatures more than 3C colder than usual, so I'm going to be generous and award Corbyn half a hit for each of these two predictions.
...

DId you consider Alaska and Hawaii in your assessment of US temps?
 
provided you acknowledge, accept and account for the problems inherent to the long-term instrument record as discussed by many researchers ...

Empiricism comes in degrees (so to speak) but observation always trumps theory.

Of ancilliary interest to the ongoing discussion here, if you track Wrigley's papers from the early 90s through 2011 you can see how as he assesses the mainstream climate science sensitivity estimates, that they seem to have steadily tracked upward from around 2.5ºC per doubling of CO2 in the early 90s to its current average estimate value of around 3.4ºC/(CO2)2.

This could, of course, be taken as evidence of group-think or conspiracy, and no doubt has been. I suspect it's evidence of science's natural conservatism but openness to new data. For instance, the rate at which ice-cover is lost has proven to be greater than early estimates by ice-experts (whose models were famously described as "useless" by Hansen a few years ago, and one has to agree they did get it very wrong. Given their lack of resources and the fact that modelling ice-behaviour is more difficult than modelling climate, that's hardly surprising).

As I've mentioned before, I find the concentration on temperatures something of a diversion. What really matters in real life is Earth system sensitivity, which is what people have to live with. Whatever the absolute numbers of warming (past or future) are, the effect on, for instance, global ice-volume is very evident already. The Earth system is responding much more rapidly than was expected even twenty years ago.

So much for "alarmism" then. I once asked mhaze if a prediction was alarmist even if it turned out to be right, and he answered "yes". That's the closest I've got yet to a definition of alarmism - a comfort-blanket to throw over any message the user finds unwelcome. Often accompanied by a litany of apocalyptic outcomes if the message is heeded.
 
I believe you are suffering from some misconceptions about equilibrium and a steady state. Possibly the difference between an open and closed system.

Your belief is erroneous. None of that has anything to do with the fact that the heat capacity of the atmosphere and oceans is a fixed quantity, which is to say the amount of energy required to raise their combined temperature by 1C is fixed. This is, of course, directly related to climate sensitivity and is not influenced by the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Unless you have evidence to the contrary? Is there some mechanism by which you think atmospheric CO2 changes the specific heat of water? Or failing that, solar entropy flux? If so I'd love to hear it. In your own words.
 
Look at the first line: In statistics, a result is called statistically significant if it is unlikely to have occurred by chance

You don't think the difference between the original estimate and the new estimate is down to chance. So what do you think caused it?

Obviously one is wrong. One is based on half a solar cycle's observations and some cutting-edge math, the other is the original. One is in a discussion document and supplement(s) which are rather self-referential, the other paying it much less attention than you are.

The world, of course, carries on regardless.

Now do you understand what this says? Do you know what chance is? Now do you think it happened by chance that they are using a value 400% less to measure entropy flux?

It was deliberate then. You are assuming that the new estimate is correct, of course, including supplement(s).

It isn't by chance, it was done deliberately. If you don't understand that I suggest you run a p-test. If you don't get that I suggest you figure out how many standard deviations 0.32 is from 0.08.

Before the new estimate turned up there was only one estimate to run the p-test on. One data point does not statistics make.

Unless you think the original estimators knew the real value and deliberately presented one very different, for obscure reasons. That would give them two data-points. Which makes a score, not statistics.

You're hand waving here is a joke. You have to be lying, nobody can be this ignorant of science to think an error of 400% is not significant.

You have, of course, retreated here from your original "statistically significant", which is (as Reality Check picked-up on) meaningless without context. The fact that you tripped it out as a catch-phrase says a great deal about you.

Try putting 400% more foot in your mouth next time, see if it's significant. :rolleyes:

Your frequent but unintentional irony says a great deal more. You may well believe that you are so alone here because science can't get a hearing, but in fact it's because our science can wear down any belief. You're thicker-beliefed than most, but they said mhaze would go on forever and look what happened to him. And Diamond before him. Consigned to adjoining soft-furnished accomodation.

Insulting everybody else's intelligence and mincing around with a superior air may cut it where you live, but it makes no impression here. We will pin you down on your inanities, we will keep hammering on the nails, and we have far more confidence in our intelligence than you do in your own.
 
Empiricism comes in degrees (so to speak) but observation always trumps theory.

Certainly, that is one of the primary differences between science and pseudoscience; theories are defined from the limits and range of the data, rather than using the theory to define and expose the data.

This could, of course, be taken as evidence of group-think or conspiracy, and no doubt has been. I suspect it's evidence of science's natural conservatism but openness to new data...

Depends, if you define groupthink to mean those who apply the the same scientific methodology, framework and principles in their approach to data (old and new) consistently, and adapt their understandings according to best current information and most compellingly supported field relevent consideration, then that's definitely a group that I aspire to maintain a connection with. In more general usage, however, groupthink contains the element of consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating the ideas and concepts to which they are ascribing; and while this may be rather common among some types of science "fans," I just don't see this behavior as widespread within the upper-level academic or professional scientific communities (not that there aren't occassionally obvious exceptions to this, of course).

For instance, the rate at which ice-cover is lost has proven to be greater than early estimates by ice-experts (whose models were famously described as "useless" by Hansen a few years ago, and one has to agree they did get it very wrong. Given their lack of resources and the fact that modelling ice-behaviour is more difficult than modelling climate, that's hardly surprising).

Well,...without pretty good ice understanding/modelling, your climate understanding/modelling is going to be much more general and imprecise, so its probably not accurate to imply that it is easier to get a comprehensive and precise climate model without having a pretty good ice dynamics understanding built into your climate model.

As I've mentioned before, I find the concentration on temperatures something of a diversion. What really matters in real life is Earth system sensitivity, which is what people have to live with.

perhaps, especially in the more casual discourse of impacts, mitigation and the whole range of socio-economic issues, and I look forward to that becoming the main thrust of discussion with regards to AGW, but that isn't going to happen as long as significant and vocal elements are willing to misstate, distort and completely disregard mainstream science in their consideration of the issue.

Whatever the absolute numbers of warming (past or future) are, the effect on, for instance, global ice-volume is very evident already. The Earth system is responding much more rapidly than was expected even twenty years ago.

So much for "alarmism" then. I once asked mhaze if a prediction was alarmist even if it turned out to be right, and he answered "yes". That's the closest I've got yet to a definition of alarmism - a comfort-blanket to throw over any message the user finds unwelcome. Often accompanied by a litany of apocalyptic outcomes if the message is heeded.

The big common point of "alarmism" definitions is the idea of "needless" or "without merit/substantiation." People that are genuinely concerned about issues with a high likelihood of coming to pass, and a demonstrated history of having occurred under similar conditions in the past, aren't alarmists, merely concerned individuals.
 
Insulting everybody else's intelligence and mincing around with a superior air may cut it where you live, but it makes no impression here. We will pin you down on your inanities, we will keep hammering on the nails, and we have far more confidence in our intelligence than you do in your own.

I doubt it. I've tried to talk science and all I get here is nonsense. The vast majority of AGW believers on this forum can't comprehend much, they read what they think is science regurgitated to them by biased and decidedly politically motivated websites like UnrealClimate and the like.

I've tried to explain an interesting paper outlining a sizable error in the way we calculate TSI and hence climate sensitivity. It opens the door to possibilities like Astrometria being a viable way of determining climate and climate change.

All I've got in response is nonsensical responses like "It's not significant, do a chi-square test, lolz" and immature parroting from people claiming to be educated adults? Not likely.

It's because of things like this the JREF is not a place to discuss climate science. Sad but true.

In the mean time I enjoy pointing out how intellectually dishonest, nay, outright deceitful, the AGW alarmists on this site really are. They've taken a page right out of the Conspiracy Theorist handbook. :D
 
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