Peak Oil Poll - what do you think will happen?

[nzric]

This is a follow-on from the peak oil thread. A lot of the posts seem to be arguments against either end of the peak oil spectrum (i.e. rabid doomers or complete deniers), and a bit of misunderstanding about what people's actual perspectives are.

So, here's a place to state what you think will happen on the downslide of the peak oil curve. Discussions about the pros and cons of each argument should probably stay in the "what are the facts" thread...

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

Public electricity generation is mostly done with coal, gas, nuclear and hydro. None of which are in danger of running out any time soon.

Oil is mostly used for transportation, an application for which we have found few viable substitutes.

Oil as we know it, will likely become more expensive until synthetic petroleum converted from one of our other major energy sources becomes economically viable.

 

[Eddie Dane]

I voted OK with nuclear and green tech.

But there are more answers that i could have voted for.

-The transition will be rough and we can assume that it will be the roughest for people in the third world.
-Competition over resources will increase, this could lead to armed conflict.
-Getting rid of your SUV is probably a good idea.
-And where is my shotgun? Oh, I put it under the bed.

 

[Eddie Dane]

This is a follow-on from the peak oil thread. A lot of the posts seem to be arguments against either end of the peak oil spectrum (i.e. rabid doomers or complete deniers), and a bit of misunderstanding about what people's actual perspectives are.

.

Linky

 

[jargon buster]

I cant vote, you missed off the "it wont run out in my lifetime" option.

If I must I will go with nulcear and green tech.

 

[Horatius]

Should have been a multiple choice poll! Some of the options naturally go together:

Like these:

Buy stocks in renewables
Ok with nuclear & green tech
Society will change but people will adjust


Society will have to change if we're going to get them to use nuclear to the extent it will likely be needed, and renewable/green technologies will have their place, and be worth investing in.

 

[9/11-investigator]

Since this is a single select poll I copied the options I would choose:

- Buy stocks in renewables
- Society will change but people will adjust
- A couple of wars before things settle down
- Where's my shotgun?

A few options more:
- there is always the possibility of a deus ex machina, like cold fusion or somebody inventing a solar cell coating paint or whatever. But it is just a possibility, no necessity.
- the crisis will come as a total surprise to most
- end of the oil age could very well be triggered by war in the Gulf, before oil runs out

History has also shown however that s*** happens, societies can collapse, or vicious wars where everybody is fighting everybody.

 

[Cuddles]

Buy stocks in renewables
Ok with nuclear & green tech
Some issues but ok with global coordination
Society will change but people will adjust

I didn't vote, since it's not possible to sensibly choose one option.

 

[Ladewig]

No vote for me.

Half for this reason:

I cant vote, you missed off the "it wont run out in my lifetime" option.

.

and half because I refuse to vote in any poll that leaves out "Planet X." And this poll sure as heck needs a Planet X option.

 

[Nosi]

No vote for me.

Half for this reason:

Originally Posted by jargon buster View Post
I cant vote, you missed off the "it wont run out in my lifetime" option.
.

and half because I refuse to vote in any poll that leaves out "Planet X." And this poll sure as heck needs a Planet X option.

I'm afraid I must disagree with you Ladewig. I voted for Society will change but people will adjust. Why? Some fairly brutal price spikes such as the 1970's gave us some kicks in the backside to innovate. Every time there's a price spike, the freeways suddenly loose population. Oil-gas spike's last spike still has commuters packing mopeds and motorbikes in the garage for single occupant travel.

We are typing on one of the deeper 'changes' now; the computer. More and more people are 'telecommuting' to meetings rather than flying to them. With every price spike, businesses increase this option. I predict that the fiber-optics being laid in sewers, alongside power lines, where-have-you will be the rail ways of the Peak Oil 21'st century. Expensive at the outset, cost effective in the long run.

 

[Ladewig]

I'm afraid I must disagree with you Ladewig. I voted for Society will change but people will adjust. Why? Some fairly brutal price spikes such as the 1970's gave us some kicks in the backside to innovate. Every time there's a price spike, the freeways suddenly loose population. Oil-gas spike's last spike still has commuters packing mopeds and motorbikes in the garage for single occupant travel.

We are typing on one of the deeper 'changes' now; the computer. More and more people are 'telecommuting' to meetings rather than flying to them. With every price spike, businesses increase this option. I predict that the fiber-optics being laid in sewers, alongside power lines, where-have-you will be the rail ways of the Peak Oil 21'st century. Expensive at the outset, cost effective in the long run.

Ah, but you don't know how old I am.

So there, even.[/ChildishTaunt]


..................
ETA: your post is reasonable and well thought out. I have no evidence to counter it.

 

[nzric]

Aw come on, the poll is meant to be a scale from 1-10...

Each row is "all of the above plus...", that's why it goes from a scale of 'no worries' to 'total doom'.

 

[Bododio]

I can't vote. There's no Planet X option.

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

I chose nuclear + green, even though I don't think green (solar & wind) is useful for anything more than a few niche market applications and otherwise is an expensive fad.

 

[Horatius]

Aw come on, the poll is meant to be a scale from 1-10...

Each row is "all of the above plus...", that's why it goes from a scale of 'no worries' to 'total doom'.

The problem with that is, they're not really automatically cumulative. For instance:

"Trading in my SUV just in case" - this assumes we'll never have electric SUVs, and that we're willing to give them up now, rather than later, when gas prices really get outrageous.



Some issues but ok with global coordination
Society will change but people will adjust

These two assume that "global coordination" would be needed for society to change, and people to adjust, which is not true. It would be entirely possible, even if it's undesirable, for large nations with lots of resources to go their own way in solving their own problems. The US wouldn't need global approval for large-scale adoption nuclear power and electric vehicles, for instance.

 

[Ladewig]

Aw come on, the poll is meant to be a scale from 1-10...

Each row is "all of the above plus...", that's why it goes from a scale of 'no worries' to 'total doom'.

Really? I didn't see it the first time through and I am still having trouble seeing it.

 

[nzric]

Ok, another way of looking at it is a scale of 1 to 10 of the impact peak oil will have on global society/economy, with 1 being "no impact at all" and 10 being total global devastation.

The poll is meant to be a very rough way to show where the common opinion sits.

If you want to qualify your answer, just add a post that details the specifics of your thoughts/theory.