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Merged Applicability of Bazant's model to the real world

AE post 1437: "I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses. I've looked carefully at the WTC 2, for example, and it's clear the 'upper block' does not disintegrate before it disappears into the dust cloud, as claimed by most truthers, including David Chandler."

David Chandler is not posting in this thread.

WHen I use the wrod "disintegrate", I mean it dis - integrates, breaks into smaller component parts.

No nukes, little rockets or space beams required.

Total straw man argument. You are debating me, not David Chandler.
 
A model is not a house pet, or a close friend of your family.

Don't feel guilty for getting rid of it when it is no longer useful.


Let it go and get a better one.

LOL. How true. But I do wish you would just get your work published so it can be properly examined by the engineering community at large. This forum isn't the right place for peer review, as you already know.

The main weakness of presenting this kind of theory on this forum is that it really isn't well defined as evidence for or against controlled demolition. This forum is about 9/11 Conspiracies, after all.
 
AE post 1437: "I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses. I've looked carefully at the WTC 2, for example, and it's clear the 'upper block' does not disintegrate before it disappears into the dust cloud, as claimed by most truthers, including David Chandler."

David Chandler is not posting in this thread.

WHen I use the wrod "disintegrate", I mean it dis - integrates, breaks into smaller component parts.

No nukes, little rockets or space beams required.

Total straw man argument. You are debating me, not David Chandler.

I wasn't aware that we were debating per se. I was simply stating some opinions, and the David Chandler reference is appropriate since he made claims about the collapse of WTC 2.

If you are claiming that the 'upper block' disintegrated right away, before it disappeared into the dust cloud, I'd have to disagree.
Your argument for WTC 1 is stronger, IMO.

Since neither tower collapsed in the same way, it leads further away from some kind of deliberate controlled demolition, wouldn't you agree? I don't see a unified method at play, and I don't think you've even begun to make a proper case for that either.

Where's the CD conspiracy?
 
First off, I wish you would respond to the substance of Myriad's post in the other thread
Not sure it's a great idea to post across threads.

and show where the second paper disavows the limiting case put forth in the first paper.

Heartening to note being more specific about which paper is being referred to.

To (pardon the pun) simplify matters, as far as I'm concerned, any usage or extension of the base limiting case model applied to physical behaviours of either WTC1 or WTC2 is out of scope. Inapplicable in the real world.

The *second paper* as you put it does so, and BLGB is absolutely choc-a-bloc full of it. Nerry-a paragraph goes by without a direct reference and comparison to WTC1 and WTC2 behaviours using twiddles of the limiting case energetics model.

crush-down/crush-up
BLGB would never actually apply their crush direction nonsense directly to WTC1 or WTC2...
806743387.png

...oh.
 
So what about the OOS collapse progressiion model...

I can predict perimeter "peeling".

I can predict the survival of the whole width of the core.

I can explain how people who were in the WTC1 core actually survived.

I can explain rubble distribution.

I can explain the uneven propagations in the different OOS regions.

I can explain the almost complete lack of buckling of core and perimeter columns in the rubble.

There is not one feature on the WTC1 features list that contradicts it.


And on and on...


As for equations governing observed propagation rates? We were able to map the observed propagation down the south side of the west face of WTC1. Dr Bazant didn't even know it was possible. He assumed the first 3 seconds of roof-line movement and seismic records were the only information available.

There is acually more information abouth the propagation process than Dr Bazant could have dreamed of when he wrote the papers. The researchers who have discovered this new information all seem to support the OOS propagation model.


And AE, as for you? What features can you explain using the BV, BL, BLGB crush down, then crush up propagation model?

Anything?
 
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AE post 1437: "I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses."

Then let's see you apply it to derive useful information. Let's see anyone here actually apply it to derive useful information about WTC1 or 2.

If you can't, please stop beating that dead horse.

If you can't, you prove it to be useless.


If you're looking for lessons applied directly to WTC 1 and 2, how would that even be possible? They're gone. Nothing left to apply anything to. However, here is some useful information from Bazant's papers for applying the lessons of WTC1 and 2 for future building safety:

Since we know that the actual WTC tower collapses involved the floors shearing from the columns, the relative weakness of that particular connection in the structural system could be interpreted as the fundamental cause of collapse propagation (or, if you prefer, failure to arrest). Indeed, your OOS model would tend to encourage that interpretation. So building code writers might be tempted to mandate stronger column-floor connections in the future (which would be perfectly okay), and falsely conclude that that would make future buildings progresssive-collapse-proof (which would be a grave mistake). The cases evaluated in Bazant's papers show why it would be a grave mistake.

As another likely practical application, I wonder to what extent the inventors and pioneers of Verinage demolition were inspired by BZ's analysis of the tower collapses. Without BZ's methods (or similar work done independently elsewhere), it would have been difficult to imagine that applying progressive collapse to deliberately demolish an entirely different scale and type of building would be effective. We do know that the technology needed to accomplish Verinage (e.g. hydraulic actuators) is not new, and yet it was not attempted until after 9/11. It is not likely that this is coincidence. Far more likely, analysis of one including Bazant's led to the testing and application of the other.

A model is not a house pet, or a close friend of your family.

Don't feel guilty for getting rid of it when it is no longer useful.


By the same token, since a model is not a house pet, one does not adopt one just because it's cute and needs a home.

In other words, carlitos' question. What's it for?

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
Exactly. The Femr2/M_T approach seems to be that the entire 'BV, BL and BLGB' positions is essentially garbage and should be abandoned.
And there's no middle ground where the models have validity to be applied in a discussion....
Agreed. In fact the only legitimate basis for discussion of this topic is to start from the premise that we are trying to draw lines through what may be grey areas to divide "applicable" territory from "not applicable". It is logically possible that the conclusion could be 100% not applicable. However I seriously doubt that outcome and it is wrong to pre-suppose it.
...I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses. I've looked carefully at the WTC 2, for example, and it's clear the 'upper block' does not disintegrate before it disappears into the dust cloud, as claimed by most truthers, including David Chandler...
My personal approach to forensic analyses of this type is to first work out what mechanisms are/were/could have been in play which gives a basis for applying maths. My reason is simple - If you don't know the qualitative form of what the mechanisms were how the devil can you apply maths at anything other than global estimating level. BZ is a valid classic - some broad guesses as to how the collapse occurred (mostly wrong in hindsight BTW) - add an assumption of column end for end contact to give extreme limit case and out pops a more or less valid limit case answer. (More or less because one of the assumtions was in the wrong direction for safety - but that is a derail for here). But BV tries to go further and I think the Authors and those who have followed forgot the shaky premise they were building on.

Now the theory model of BV applies one set of equations to a building which collapses by crush down with the columns being the main bits crushed and the floors adding to the rubble. And that aint what happened with WTC1 and WTC2. WTC Twin Towers reality was that the outer tube columns were peeled off having taken little part in resisting the collapse other than holding up the floor joists sufficient for those floor joists to shear off. No crushing. So how can BV apply???? Then add in how the core was stripped down and it doesn't help BV much if anything.

So, for me, simply looking at how WTC1 & WTC2 collapsed says it doesn't match BV WHILST the BV model potentially would/could match collapse of a more conventional structure. And building a generic model was Bazant's longer term goal. Good for him.

However recall I said (words to the effect of) "work out what happens first then apply the maths to what happened" I have been critical from my first Internet post (14 Nov 2007, the WTC 9/11 topic, on the Richard Dawkins forum) of those who rush into maths before they know what they attach the maths to. From that post where I said this:
Me said:
The paper referenced as [TITLE] by [AUTHOR] is typical of many which look impressive in detail to the non-engineer. The complex calculations may even be correct but the base premises are faulty and the resulting conclusions can readily be demonstrated to be totally wrong.
A lot of the possible misunderstanding of BZ, BV et al seems to grow from trust of maths without checking what it is the maths are supposed to be representing.
...WTC 1 certainly didn't collapse in an identical manner to WTC 2. In my view, this doesn't support the CD argument well....
Nobody has raised CD (yet) and I try to extend to posting members the courtesy of not presuming something which they have not raised. A lot of could be valid discussion in this and similar threads is obscured by unwarranted claims of"trutherism" or "CD" etc..
 
Ozeco post 1447: "Agreed. In fact the only legitimate basis for discussion of this topic is to start from the premise that we are trying to draw lines through what may be grey areas to divide "applicable" territory from "not applicable". It is logically possible that the conclusion could be 100% not applicable. However I seriously doubt that outcome and it is wrong to pre-suppose it."

Then let's see someone apply it to derive meaningful information about WTC1 and 2.

Would you like me to show applications of the OOS propagation model to compare?
 
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BLGB would never actually apply their crush direction nonsense directly to WTC1 or WTC2...


Correct. Naming cases under analysis based on the sources of the parameters input into those cases and showing what the model does in those cases, is not what it means to apply model results.

Where if anywhere do Bazant or his co-authors claim that a certain behavior generated from their model reveals an actual (but otherwise unobserved) detail of what happened to the towers themselves? That would be applying the model directly to WTC1 or WTC2.

Is this the source of all the griping about Bazant? Do you also interpret a papier maché model of the Solar System in a classroom that's labeled "sun," "earth" and so forth as an assertion that the actual sun and planets are made of papier maché and dangle from strings? I can see how that would cause a lot of confusion.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
Then let's see you apply it to derive useful information. Let's see anyone here actually apply it to derive useful information about WTC1 or 2.
Well, I don't follow any engineering journal, but I'd say it's still too early to determine its validity and outreach, because it hasn't been put to test enough times.

It has been put to test with respect to the speed of fall of the WTC towers (again, see p.902 of BLGB).

But a model is a mathematical tool, which, like many other mathematical tools, you don't really know when it can become useful, but if it's there, you can use it.


A model is not a house pet, or a close friend of your family.

Don't feel guilty for getting rid of it when it is no longer useful.


Let it go and get a better one.
You don't have a better one.

You don't have a model that can be used by the engineering community to be applied to other buildings to extract conclusions out of them. And not only because of your refusal to publish your work. You merely have a description of an event, not a model to which input parameters can be applied and output parameters extracted.

A model is what BV attempts to do. To me, BLGB is a sample application of that model to the case of the WTC towers. The graph femr2 has shown is an application of the model to the WTC parameters, not a comparison with the real features. And you keep doing the same all the time.

Engineering models are not there to solve conspiracy puzzles. You seem to assume that as the purpose, and that's where you are failing again and again.


So what about the OOS collapse progressiion model...

I can predict perimeter "peeling".

I can predict the survival of the whole width of the core.

I can explain how people who were in the WTC1 core actually survived.

I can explain rubble distribution.

I can explain the uneven propagations in the different OOS regions.

I can explain the almost complete lack of buckling of core and perimeter columns in the rubble.
FEMA already did that before you.

2.2.1.5 Progression of Collapse

Construction of WTC 1 resulted in the storage of more than 4x1011 joules of potential energy over the 1,368-foot height of the structure. Of this, approximately 8x109 joules of potential energy were stored in the upper part of the structure, above the impact floors, relative to the lowest point of impact. Once collapse initiated, much of this potential energy was rapidly converted into kinetic energy. As the large mass of the collapsing floors above accelerated and impacted on the floors below, it caused an immediate progressive series of floor failures, punching each in turn onto the floor below, accelerating as the sequence progressed. As the floors collapsed, this left tall freestanding portions of the exterior wall and possibly central core columns. As the unsupported height of these freestanding exterior wall elements increased, they buckled at the bolted column splice connections, and also collapsed. Perimeter walls of the building seem to have peeled off and fallen directly away from the building face, while portions of the core fell in a somewhat random manner. The perimeter walls broke apart at the bolted connections, allowing individual prefabricated units that formed the wall or, in some cases, large assemblies of these units to fall to the street and onto neighboring buildings below.​
(FEMA 403, chapter 2, p. 2-27)

If you made refinements, fine, but it's not "your" description of the collapse. Give credit where credit is due.

And it's not the topic of this thread either.
 
...To (pardon the pun) simplify matters, as far as I'm concerned, any usage or extension of the base limiting case model applied to physical behaviours of either WTC1 or WTC2 is out of scope. Inapplicable in the real world....
thumbup.gif


The base case model had columns aligned resisting the falling weight and getting crushed to give a founding premise for the maths which were applied. Is any further comment needed??

Then that word "simplify" must be a candidate for the most misused word in these discussions about Bazant's work. We quite often see it used in the context of an accusation that someone does not understand models - that accusation supported by a misuse/misinterpretation of "simplification".

If you simplify things to obscure the factor which matters it aint no simplification.
 
The graph femr2 has shown is an application of the model to the WTC parameters, not a comparison with the real features.
...
BLGB Abstract said:
The video record available for the first few seconds of collapse is shown to agree with the motion history calculated from the differential equation of progressive collapse
Comparison with real features. In the abstract.

Slight tangent whilst I'm in the abstract...
The air ejected from the building by gravitational collapse must have attained, near the ground, the speed of almost 500mph
Indicating their model didn't capture the observable ~28m/s terminal velocity of the propogating crush fronts. Anyway...
This explains the loud booms
Eh ? Er, no. Not sure what booms they are talking about, but them failing to build a model with terminal velocity of crush front propogation rate included doesn't explain jack about sonic booms ;)

Anyway...

and shows that the lower margin of the dust cloud could not have coincided with the crushing front
...oh come on, I'm not even out of the abstract yet...
The calculated crush-down duration is found to match a logical interpretation of seismic record

Sigh. No comparison to real features ?

That's just the abstract.
 
This is your theory, guys:

BV_fig1.png


Crush down, followed by crush up.

This is what you are clinging to.

Myriad still thinks Bazant is describing a "best case for survival " crush down followed by crush up. I have no idea what that means, since it is a product of his mind only.

I guess, according to his reasoning, this represents the slowest possible descent the towers could undergo. So there we have a second mutant theory invented within the collective JREF sub-consciousness to explain away the contradictions.


Where is the remaining core or the peeling perimeter? Where is the disintegration of the upper portion?

It's all fake. A cartoon.

Do you realize that your equations of motion are just mathematical descriptions of the graphics above?

Do you even know on what assumptions your own equations of motion are based?
 
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Bazant claimed that only the first 3 seconds of collapse and the seismic records are available for WTC1. This is why he fits roof-line measurements and seismic signals to his model in BLGB.

In reality, if you look very carefully, a collapse progression front is visible down the west side of the building

760729846.gif


This has resulted in the discovery of an early terminal velocity reached in the propagation:

730189522.jpg


The larger collection of data is here:
http://the911forum.freeforums.org/w...ml?sid=9c5f9783a994bc9950e5c4103b24561c#p5601


Bazant knew about none of this. Guys, you need to update information when available or you end up stuck in an old, useless model.


Hey, with this new data you have a great way to test Bazant's equations. Let me know how that works out for you.
 
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Honestly, MT? You need to lose the attitude it does you and your efforts no credit. It makes you seem no different the people you criticize here. You are just as adamant about your theory as people here are about Bazant's. You say, "Bazant knew about none of this. Guys, you need to update information when available or you end up stuck in an old, useless model.


Hey, with this new data you have a great way to test Bazant's equations. Let me know how that works out for you."

which just shows how committed to your argument you are and how closed you are to any fair criticism. It certainly doesn't make me want to either read your paper or, if I do, comment or ask questions about it. Some people have brought some valid points for you to consider and you just jumped all over them for it and honestly I don't have time for that myself.

You wanted people to read your paper and some have and some haven't but you should be ready to cordially respond to serious questions or points. You are perfectly allowed to ignore emotion laced comments for sure but a better tact I would say would be address the points you feel germane and ignore the emotional crap.

Anyway, that is all I have to say.
 
Not quite sure I understand you there.
Several false types of simplification have been posted recently. This is the structure of one of them:

If you are trying to differentiate between apples and oranges it is of no value if someone simplifies it to "they are both fruit".


...there are others.
 
A fair final test: Let's see someone apply the BV, BL and BLGB model to WTC1 and 2 to extract useful information.

If posters cannot do that, the conversation seems pretty shallow.


I'm going to guess why so many people are clinging to crush down, then crush up mechanics: To save face. There is no other reason.

It would be too embarrasing to just say the truth after all this time, that the principle of crush down, then crush up has nothing whatsoever to do with WTC1 and 2 movement.

The sheer embarrassment in admitting that you have been applying buckle down-buckle up mechanics to a tower in which the columns were stripped of flooring and bypassed is too much to face. This is why the diplomatic "less than 100%" comment is used. To save face.

The mutant invention of JREF, a "best case scenario for survival propagation model", (I don't even know what the hell that means) is another attempt to save face in some way.

Even if we whittle the papers down to about 30% accuracy, I am sure many of you will still cling to that 30% to try to save face.


Throughout the papers he gives increasingly detailed "proof" of why significant crush up cannot happen before crush down is complete. It is an important theme throughout the papers as it is repeated in each one. There are sizable sections of each paper dedicatied to this question.


All this must be ignored as posters wrap themselves deeper into a cocoon of denial, just to save face. Posters remain hypnotized, transfixed before equations they can neither read nor understand.

Does anyone know why significant crush up cannot happen until the upper portion collides with the earth (according to Dr Bazant)?

It is because the "upper block" columns do not buckle upwards. This is another thing you must ignore or justify. No upward buckling, hence survival of the "upper block". It's a cartoon but it looks impressive if you don't understand what he is actually claiming.


>>>

For this reason, it would be more correct to call the Bazant propagation model "1-D buckle-down, then buckle up mechanics". This expresses how the mechanics are really formulated and tells the reader quite clearly why "crush down" must be complete before significant "crush up" can begin.

The assumption is that there is insufficient upward force delivered through (imaginary) "zone B" to the (imaginary) "upper block" to buckle the columns upwards. Hence no crush up.
 
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This is how Dr Bazant himself describes why crush up doesn't happen until the upper portion makes contact with the earth.

Please try to understand the assumptions behind your own mechanics. It is quite interesting.

From BL Review. Bazant's direct quotes in black, my comments in red.

5. Why Can Crush-Up Not Begin Later? The discusser fur-
ther states that “it is difficult to imagine, again from a basic
physical standpoint, how the possibility of the occurrence of
crush-up would diminish as the collapse progressed.”

This was about the only thing James Gourley said correctly in the paper. It is pretty difficult to imagine why crush up cannot occur, no? Dr Bazant reassures us upper block C and the magic carpet of debris is real with the following logic:

Yet the discusser could have imagined it easily, even without calcu-
lations, if he considered the free-body equilibrium diagram
of compacted layer B, as in Fig. 2͑f͒ of the paper.

In figure 2f, shown below, Dr Bazant simplifies the complex process of crushing, column spearing, the outward splitting of whole perimeter walls and the bypassing of core columns like opposing spears as two "big blocks" with the following cartoon scenario:

BV_fig2.png



For a reader that wants to understand why Dr Bazant mistakes the upper block C to be virtually indestructable, it is important to understand this diagram and to understand what Dr Bazant is doing in the following passages. He continues...


After including the inertia force, it immediately follows from this
diagram that the normal force in the supposed crush up front
acting upward onto Part C is

BL_eq5.png

vB rapidly decreases because of mass accretion of zone B and
becomes much smaller than g, converging to g / 3 near the
end of crush down ͑Bažant et al. 2007͒. This is one reason
that Fc is much larger than FЈ. After the collapse of a few
stories, mass mc becomes enormous. This is a further reason
that the normal force FЈ in the supposed crush-up front be-
comes much smaller than Fc in the crush-down front.

When the compacted zone B hits the ground, vB suddenly drops to
zero, the force difference ⌬F suddenly disappears, and then
the crush-up phase can begin.

If you really believe that the complex interactions within WTC1 can be accurately represented by 2 big blocks and a magic buffer zone B, perhaps this seems to make sense.


The discussers’ statement that “the yield and deformation
strength of . . . Part C would be very similar to the yield and
deformation strength of . . . the lower structure” shows a
misunderstanding of the mechanics of failure. Aside from the
fact that “deformation strength” is a meaningless term ͑de-
formation depends on the load but has nothing to do with
strength͒, this statement is irrelevant to what the discussers
try to assert. It is the normal force in the upper Part C that is
much smaller, not necessarily the strength ͑or load capacity͒
of Part C per se.

No upper block C exists. No such single normal force exists.

Force FЈ acting on Part C upward can easily
be calculated from the dynamic equilibrium of Part C ͑see
Fig. 2g͒, and it is found that FЈ never exceeds the column
crushing force of the overlying story. This confirms again
that the crush-up cannot restart until the compacted layer hits
the ground.

This is how the upper block remains intact in Dr Bazants crush up, crush down mechanics. He believes that the "upward force" on the "upper block" never exceeds the column crushing force of the story above. To him, it is the strength of the upper columns, their inability to buckle upwards, that preserves the upper block from damage.

It is natural to wonder: Why don't the upper and lower column stubs just spear through rubble zone B, allowing upper and lower portions to penetrate each other and mutually destroy one another? In Bazant's view, the rubble zone B provides a cushion of debris on which the bottom column stubs of the upper portion can remain supported, thus shielding the upper block C from damage. I know that makes no sense, but that is what Dr Bazant's crush-up, crush-down mechanics is based on, just as he has described in this section.



Do you understand why crush up cannot happen before contact with earth? This is why "1-D buckle down, then buckle up mechanics" is a more correct way to describe your collapse progression model.
 
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....This is why the diplomatic "less than 100%" comment is used. To save face....
I have two reasons actually.

The first one is that I need to leave it open for someone to show me that my gut feeling 100% is wrong.

The second one is that I spent a fair proportion of my career conciliating problems in both staff relations and customer relations. I naturally seek to use conciliation approaches if I am after agreement with other posting members. Often the best starting point is if you can see things from 'their' point of view. And telling 'them' they are wrong or idiots is not a good starting point. Conversely if 'they' after some discussion start to see it your way and they say "I was wrong - that was an idiotic view to hold" -- well the jargon is "win-win".

.......The assumption is that there is insufficient upward force delivered through (imaginary) "zone B" to the (imaginary) "upper block" to buckle the columns upwards. Hence no crush up.
I know that is his rationale. You need a vivid imagination to apply it to WTC.

The disjoint in his model is that he assumes a form of homogeneous tower - columns and floor slabs acting in concert for both the upper block and the lower tower as if each remained a discrete integral entity. That is not what happened with WTC1 or WTC2 and, so far, I have seen no attempt to demonstrate how the BV 'discrete blocks' model could fit the 9/11 realities for WTC1 or 2.

I've seen attempts to differentiate between applying the parameters of WTC collapse to BV model but not the real WTC collapse. I hinted at how I could be persuaded down that sort of track a few days back. You have to substitute "weak columns" - ie a pseudo column which had only the strength of the failure load for the floor joist connectors. No-one has taken up that challenge. It is not in Bazant's work AND (so far :rolleyes: ) no-one has shown me where I am wrong. The argument to convince me would need to be more sophisticated that what we have been engaging in recently.
 
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