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Merged Applicability of Bazant's model to the real world

It's perfectly fair to note differences between their model and the event, but those differences do not automatically settle the question of whether the model is adequate for the purposes to which it is put
Sure. So, as I've said repeatedly, anyone applying crush direction behaviour from the model to the real world is misapplying the model.

(which was the original topic of this thread)
However, the mods decided to bundle together a rather differently scoped thread in here. I think they should un-merge it.

all engineering models are simplifications.
Never implied anything to the contrary.

It looks like femr2 and Major_Tom are ignoring the actual words they quoted.
Nope. Highlighting what can and cannot be applied to the real world. Enough energy available, sure. Much else ? Nah.

Descent time ? No. Mechanism of propogation entirely different. Any similarity in time is *by chance*.

Comparison with motion ? No. No intact upper block, entirely different mechanism of propogation (ROOSD). No tilt. No perimeter peeling. What part of the building would you actually compare to ? Only practical thing is one of the crush fronts, and as the mechanism of destruction is completely different, ...

Comparison to seismic record ? Hmmm. I'd have to refresh what they say about it, but doubt it due to the points above.
 
Descent time ? No. Mechanism of propogation entirely different. Any similarity in time is *by chance*.
IIRC it was an energy argument, therefore you'll need more than that statement to refute it.

Try with something like this:

"The [magnitude A] predicted in the model can't be derived from it because the [related magnitude B] used in the model can have a significantly different behavior in maybe X% of the cases, because ____________."
 
IIRC it was an energy argument
As far as I'm concerned, absolutely.

therefore you'll need more than that statement to refute it.
Not really. Not seriously thinking that was a formal refutement were you ? Anything that is not *enough energy available* is automatically in the grey area imo, as you have already noted.

Try with something like this:

"The [magnitude A] predicted in the model can't be derived from it because the [related magnitude B] used in the model can have a significantly different behavior in maybe X% of the cases, because ____________."
No thanks. You've been fine with the discussion for the last 36 pages worth, and I'm not inclined to use your new personally preferred refutement notation now that you're getting a bit miffed at the thread content.

Curious that your stance would change. Might be worthwhile having a recap of your previous statements within this thread eh.
 
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Sure. So, as I've said repeatedly, anyone applying crush direction behaviour from the model to the real world is misapplying the model.
You've been acting as though the quotation supported your position when you were arguing with people who haven't done that.

Nope. Highlighting what can and cannot be applied to the real world. Enough energy available, sure. Much else ? Nah.
These papers are outside my competence, but it's been my impression that they were intended to model energy. In fact, I thought that was Bažant and Verdure's justification for modelling the complicated force curves by an average force.

If you think the papers were intended to model more than energy and its consequences, what else do you think they were intended to model?
 
If you think the papers were intended to model more than energy and its consequences
Certainly not. Yes, the initial model is simply the limiting case energetics based 1D model.

An issue is what that initial model has been subsequently applied to in subsequent papers.

I'm not inclined to highlight every point within the subsequent papers that overreach and step outside those original bounds, but there are plenty of direct allegories made to the actual behaviour of the actual buildings...all of which are basically taking it too far imo.

Am sure MT will have many additional references highlighting usage of the model beyond it's appropriate scope should you want to go into it.

what else do you think they were intended to model?
Nowt initially. The model has suffered (and I mean suffered) from gradual scope creep by being passed from pillar to post, with even the authors forgetting its roots...and therefore resulting in a whole bunch of folk out here who take their written word as gospel without also realising it's humble beginnings, and inherent limitations.

So, yeah, okay with it proving that given the initial defined initiating conditions and state that there was enough energy available for propogation to ground. Limiting case energetics model. More than that ? Hm. Very thin line. Very grey.

Arguing about model behaviours that didn't happen in the real world ? Pft.
 
I'm not inclined to highlight every point within the subsequent papers that overreach and step outside those original bounds,
So I'll just have to take your word for that.

I guess I could study the papers some more in hope of figuring out what you mean, but I can't seem to find anyone who's willing to tell me why anyone outside the field of structural engineering should care.

Nowt initially. The model has suffered (and I mean suffered) from gradual scope creep by being passed from pillar to post, with even the authors forgetting its roots...and therefore resulting in a whole bunch of folk out here who take their written word as gospel without also realising it's humble beginnings, and inherent limitations.
Yes, scope creep can be a problem. I recall a famous person who proved that his own personal theory did not have a certain arcane technical property. He and his many influential friends interpreted that to mean no reasonable theory could have that technical property. A young PhD student developed a theory with that property and explained why it was reasonable. Last I checked, his dissertation had been cited over 200 times.

I guess that won't be happening here, though.
 
Certainly not. Yes, the initial model is simply the limiting case energetics based 1D model....
True.
An issue is what that initial model has been subsequently applied to in subsequent papers.
True - that was the OP question of the original pre-merger thread.
...I'm not inclined to highlight every point within the subsequent papers that overreach and step outside those original bounds, but there are plenty of direct allegories made to the actual behaviour of the actual buildings...all of which are basically taking it too far imo....
There are many of them in past history. Difficult to dig them up and re-awaken the specific debate WHILST avoiding looking like an attack on the credibility of the person who made the historical error. Hence my advice to M_T some weeks back to avoid archaeological excursions into past history.
...Am sure MT will have many additional references highlighting usage of the model beyond it's appropriate scope should you want to go into it...
The frustrating thing reading recent posts is the various 'circular' misinterpretations of "simplification" of modelling. It is one of the factors which has been used throughout this discussion to maintain the foggy thinking.

Yes it is true that models employ 'simplification'. That simplification is valid if it allows conclusions to be reached which are valid conclusions. Simplification can lead to wrong conclusions when application is taken outside the limits set by the simplification. But the core issue of both OPs in this merged thread is the validity of the simplifications used.

In simple analogy the OP was 'explain the difference between apples and pears' - the simplification arguments are equivalent to saying 'they are both fruit'. And there are several different ways that false simplification has been attempted in recent posts. :rolleyes: We cannot allow 'they are both fruit' as an answer if we are trying to define the differences between apples and pears.

Attempts have been made here to gloss over the difference between the real world collapse of WTC towers and the theoretical application of BV to their assumed 'generic building'. The 'generic building' assumed by BV and how it would collapse is very different to the actual collapse of WTC buildings.

The original topic was targeted at drawing the line between 'real world WTC' and 'theory world of the BV generic building'. All the discussion which attempts attempts to treat both WTC real and generic building theory as being the same thing under the cover of the umbrella of 'simplification' is simply erecting a barrier to that original OP.

...Nowt initially. The model has suffered (and I mean suffered) from gradual scope creep by being passed from pillar to post, with even the authors forgetting its roots...and therefore resulting in a whole bunch of folk out here who take their written word as gospel without also realising it's humble beginnings, and inherent limitations....
Spot on!

...So, yeah, okay with it proving that given the initial defined initiating conditions and state that there was enough energy available for propogation to ground. Limiting case energetics model....
That is where I suggested to M_T that you could regard Bazant's work as either one or two distinct models. The 'limit case' application of BZ generally accepted. BUT as we progress to the BV style application it is of fundamental importance to be clear whether we are applying to WTC real world OR to some theoretical 'generic model' with a conventional column grid arrangement. Because I continue to hold that BV does not apply to Twin Towers global collapse phase. And I will hold that view until someone persuades me that BV's mechanism of crushing columns somehow allows for the column crushing being near zero energy - what really happened - and not the largest part of the energy - what would happen with the generic model but did not happen with WTC on 9/11.

The 'limit case' of BZ assumed a model which did not actually happen at WTC on 9/11. That model was (and is?) a valid limit case because it encompasses what really happened. Interpretation of BZ as a valid 'limit case' is within the limits of the assumptions.

But BV extends into territory which goes beyond those assumptions. Hence my "one or two models" point. If we pretend that it applies to WTC then the 'crush down' 'crush up' stuff is wrong - look to the video evidence and don't even try to pretend that the difference is covered by 'simplification'. And if we say it does not apply to WTC - because it is a different model - then BV are wrong to use in in reference to WTC.
...More than that ? Hm. Very thin line. Very grey.

Arguing about model behaviours that didn't happen in the real world ? Pft.
Correct. And trying to cover two distinctly different mechanisms by stretching foggy understanding of model 'simplifications' is not the way to clarify the issue.
 
Ozeco, I totally agree.

"upper block" movement from the south:

WTC1_CBS9_Chojjfpper2_501pm-new.gif


"upper block" movement from the NW:






The whole NE corner of the "upper block" breaks outwards as a 25 column by 4 to 6 story section:
http://www.sharpprintinginc.com/911..._op=view_page&PAGE_id=91&MMN_position=223:223

The north face of the "upper block" breaks outwards as a few pieces, one of which is very large at about 11 floors high. Since the whole "upper block" was only about 12 stories high, there is effectively no north wall left on the "upper block":
http://www.sharpprintinginc.com/911..._op=view_page&PAGE_id=95&MMN_position=229:229

The west wall of the "upper block" broke outwards and fell as at least 3 large pieces, one of which was about 25 columns by 6 to 8 stories tall:
http://www.sharpprintinginc.com/911..._op=view_page&PAGE_id=92&MMN_position=224:224



w_piece7.jpg


The massive west wall piece is on the right. The whole NE corner assembly is on the left. A huge 11 story high piece will emerge from the area of the orange arrow. All pieces off the "upper block". (97 labelled incorrectly. Should read 98)


The antenna of the "upper block" broke from the "upper block" within 10 stories of falling and fell southward:
http://www.sharpprintinginc.com/911...op=view_page&PAGE_id=175&MMN_position=363:363

956160986.jpg



Anyway, that is the reality. A crush down, then crush up model based on BV eqs 12 and 17 with multilpe proofs as to why significant crush up is impossible before crush down is complete makes no sense at all.

Even so, I have learned to expect the majority of posters will cling to the Bazant progressive collapse model with tightly-clenched fists. (Because reason has nothing to do with it.)
 
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The following post by Myriad in the OOS model thread in May, 2010 is a great concise example of how he has made minced-meat out of the Bazant papers for over 8 months.


Once again (well probably more, but once at a time): I make no claims about which block the rubble came from in the actual collapses. I merely point out that in Bazant's model, as a direct result of making the assumptions most favorable to collapse arrest, crush-down diverges from crush-up very early in the process and crush-down then predominates until the upper block reaches the ground.

If the actual collapses behaved differently, all that means is that the process was less favorable to collapse arrest than Bazant assumed as a limiting case. So collapse arrest was impossible by an even wider margin.

Of course we already knew this, because that's what analyzing a limiting case means.

The bottom line is, nothing offered in this thread helps any known Truther argument in any way whatsoever.

Respectfully,
Myriad



I guess it's like making a tossed salad. Just add your favorite ingredients and, voila, you invent your own theory. If it tastes good to the poster, it must be real.


Ozeco, these people are pushing the same illusions in January, in this thread.


I don't want to ride that pony anymore. Let's move on, but how can I do that with a new round of this crap? They never stop.
 
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...Ozeco, these people are pushing the same illusions in January, in this thread.


I don't want to ride that pony anymore. Let's move on, but how can I do that with a new round of this crap? They never stop.
Don't ride the pony. Don't respond to the crap. You have some good points to make so make those points and back them with reason.

I have commented before on mixed objectives. Specifically the mixing of the objective "Show the limits of validity of Bazant's work" with the objective "Prove some members of JREF wrong." And a further objective which I have not identified explicitly in previous posts - the objective of "Rub their noses in it."

Reading your posts confuses me as to your objective. What does it matter if some people have wrongly applied Bazant's work in the past? Those discussions are over, gone, finished. Look to future discussions and post correct application of Bazant's work when the need arises and stick strictly to discussion of topic. What does it matter if people question your qualifications or look for peer reviewed papers when both those are merely tricks to evade responding to the topic?

You are on the "wrong side" and in the weaker position for power on this forum. Retaliating to the insults thrown your way only gives further excuses for people to evade addressing your claims.

The truth of your claims can and should stand (or fall) on their internal correctness so focus rigorously on the topic.
 
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Ozeco post 1430: "What does it matter if some people have wrongly applied Bazant's work in the past?"

It is not some people. It is every active JREF poster besides you.

Look around. Do you see anyone supporting your position? Why not? Pretty spooky, no?



It's not "in the past". It is right now, in this thread.
 
Ozeco post 1430: "What does it matter if some people have wrongly applied Bazant's work in the past?"

It is not some people. It is every active JREF poster besides you.

Look around. Do you see anyone supporting your position? Why not? Pretty spooky, no?



It's not "in the past". It is right now, in this thread.
Think hard about "What is my objective?" The discussion about technical WTC 9/11 matters was mostly over about 2008.

Many people are committed to their personal reasons for concluding "no demolition" which is the big technical question in the domain of "conspiracy" no matter how hard femr2 and your other associates attempt to deny that reality - (see femr2's attempted 'put down' of one of my recent posts to achimspok - link if you need it.).

And most of those people are at their personal limit of technical analysis. Those of lesser technical skill relying on those higher up the skills ladder in serried ranks. So for most your suggestion that Bazant was less than 100% correct. Or, to be more pedantic, that their interpretation of Bazant is less than 100% correct is a major threat to ego and self esteem. And one which many lack the technical skill to directly rebut - leading to many of the ad-hom responses. (Pun on 'major' not intended :rolleyes: )

And the tactics adopted by M_T. achimspok, femr2 of "step by step revelation" meanwhile denial that CD could (note 'could' not 'will') lie down the track wins no friends. Personally I am amused by femr2's denial of implicit tactics but I am quite prepared to ride with that denial. Similarly your persistent refusal to use the quote function despite your clear knowledge that your style is irritating to some. Therefore you deliberately set out to irritate? Why?

So think hard about your objective. You will not win "We wuz wrong" confessions in broadside surrenders. You may gradually see persons re-align with a more correct interpretation of Bazant.

But it will be a long battle. One which would have been difficult but not impossible in 2007-2008. That was before most were committed, locked in, to whatever errors they may have in understanding. But it is a battle which will be infinitely harder to win now in 2011.
 
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Ozeco post 1432: "So for most your suggestion that Bazant was less than 100% correct. "

No, that BV, BL and BLGB are fundamentally incorrect beyond repair.

Huge difference. That they were fundamentally beyond repair when they were published.


That few seemed to notice even how to distinguish BZ and BV while they posed as "experts" on this forum.


That most everything you read here is propaganda.


Big difference.
 
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Ozeco post 1432: "So for most your suggestion that Bazant was less than 100% correct. "

No, that BV, BL and BLGB are fundamantally incorrect beyond repair...
My writing is too subtle or too diplomatic - you prefer 'black and white'. Note that your '...fundamantally incorrect beyond repair...' is a subset of my softer phrased '...less than 100% correct.' :rolleyes:
 
Big difference. They are incorrect and prove nothing.

Did you know that each of the three papers claims to "prove" demolition did not happen? That is propaganda at this point, nothing more.


Ozeco post 1432: "But it is a battle which will be infinitely harder to win now in 2011. "

I am interested in providing sufficient information for others now and in the future to decide for themselves what actually happened on 9-11-01 free of all the crap and propaganda.


Future generations will inherit our lies, you know. Our propaganda. Don't you think they will have some questions of their own?

A correct recordation of historic events is important so as to avoid the same mistakes.

Would you call the collection, organization and distribution of information a "battle"? WIth whom?


If the year is 2011 or 2015, what is the difference?

It cannot be swept under the rug anymore. Too many people have many questions. And what about the future? No one knows.
 
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...I am interested in providing sufficient information for others now and in the future to decide for themselves what actually happened on 9-11-01 free of all the crap and propaganda...
That is a bold and worthy objective. However you have a tendency to see all the issues, big or little, on one level and devoid of any 'system levels' of relationship.

The two issues which are relevant here for the interest of future generations will be (IMNSHO :rolleyes: ) :

The big technical question for WTC 9/11 which was the spurious question of "demolition or not?" The answer is clearly "Not" and what those future generations will probably see is something along the lines of "Like many big events the 9/11 WTC collapse attracted attention from conspiracy theorists. Whilst there was never any substantial argument put forward for demolition the conspiracy focus on the WTC 9/11 collapses was on the possibility of human intervention assisting the natural processes of impact damage and unfought fires to cause the collapse".

And the question you are pursuing is a minor detail in comparison. "Some academic modelling of the collapses was eventually shown to be wrong in detail but had no impact on the real question of 'demolition or not?'" Nothing more than a subset at best.

So if the real question is mountain sized the question which has your attention is little more than a bucket of sand. The 'Bazant right or wrong' question, put in perspective, doesn't even rank as a question of significant interest to future generations.

Now, if it was a precursor to a proof that there had been MIHOP activity, the question may become one of interest to future generations.

But that's not the agenda is it? And it would be a loser even if it was on the agenda.

So:
...Future generations will inherit our lies, you know. Our propaganda. Don't you think they will have some questions of their own?

A correct recordation of historic events is important so as to avoid the same mistakes...
Same comment. I suggest that you are losing (have lost??) perspective. What mistakes other than wrong conclusions on an Internet forum have resulted from wrong interpretation of Bazant on this forum?

... Would you call the collection, organization and distribution of information a "battle"? WIth whom?

If the year is 2011 or 2015, what is the difference?

It cannot be swept under the rug anymore. Too many people have many questions. And what about the future? No one knows.
...all too vague to respond to. And grandiose optimism in the claim 'Too many people have many questions'. I don't see more than a handful here and that after some quite bold claims by you.
 
My writing is too subtle or too diplomatic - you prefer 'black and white'. Note that your '...fundamantally incorrect beyond repair...' is a subset of my softer phrased '...less than 100% correct.' :rolleyes:

Exactly. The Femr2/M_T approach seems to be that the entire 'BV, BL and BLGB' positions is essentially garbage and should be abandoned.
And there's no middle ground where the models have validity to be applied in a discussion.

I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses. I've looked carefully at the WTC 2, for example, and it's clear the 'upper block' does not disintegrate before it disappears into the dust cloud, as claimed by most truthers, including David Chandler.

WTC 1 certainly didn't collapse in an identical manner to WTC 2. In my view, this doesn't support the CD argument well.

cheers

AE
 
AE post 1437: "I'm still not convinced the the crush-down/crush-up model doesn't have validity, even tho it doesn't apply 100% to the actual collapses."

Then let's see you apply it to derive useful information. Let's see anyone here actually apply it to derive useful information about WTC1 or 2.

If you can't, please stop beating that dead horse.

If you can't, you prove it to be useless.


On the other hand, consider the OOS collapse propagation model. I can apply this model to gain an incredible sum of knowledge of the collapse propagation mechanisms of the towers.

This model doesn't contradict a single observable of which I am aware.

Why not just switch to a much better model and be done with this attempt to revive a dead model?
 
A model is not a house pet, or a close friend of your family.

Don't feel guilty for getting rid of it when it is no longer useful.


Let it go and get a better one.
 
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First off, I wish you would respond to the substance of Myriad's post in the other thread, and show where the second paper disavows the limiting case put forth in the first paper.
Why not just switch to a much better model and be done with this attempt to revive a dead model?

Second, switch to a much better model to do what, exactly? What needs doing that requires your model? I'm serious here.
 

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