Chaos Magic

[Nonpareil]

[BTW, I'd like to add that you're one of the handful of truely rational responders in this thread and it has truly been a pleasure conversing with you ]

Thanks. I've had a good time in this thread, too, even though I don't agree with you or Malerin. It's been a while since I've found a thread I can really sink my teeth into.

I'll have to pick it up again tomorrow, though. It's getting late, and I have to get up early tomorrow.

 

[carlitos]

Obvious troll continues to be obvious.

 

[Malerin]

What supporting evidence do you have when you ask a stranger what time it is

My own watch,

Come now. You wouldn't ask for the time if you had a working watch.

a general knowledge of what times of day corresponds to what level of lighting and temperature, and (presumably) some idea of how long it's been since a previous known time.

All of this allows for dishonesty on the part of the person giving you the time. They could lie by ten or more minutes and probably fool most of us.

or ask for directions?

Very little. It's largely a leap of faith. I hope that the person isn't going to purposefully screw me over, and I'm not one hundred percent sure that his directions are correct.

Right, we're never 100 percent correct, but I generally trust people who give me directions. It's been my experience that most people are honest. This rationale would apply to the nurse as well. I have no reason to believe she's lying. She's telling a remarkable story, but then so is the person who swears they rolled five 20's in a row in a D&D game.

Do you generally believe such people?

In the former case, yes. In the latter, I believe that they are generally attempting to help, but I'm not particularly sure that they're actually giving me the right directions.

True, and that would apply to whether the nurse was mistaken or not.

 

[PixyMisa]

I did not say that the other anecdote has absolutely no value, I just sad it was less reliable and therefor of less value without other evidence. But a species of animals is also less outlandish or far-fetched as spirit beings or souls surviving apart from bodies.

And, indeed, they presented evidence.

I've found a new species of rat!

Show me.

Here you go.

Well, okay then. Yep, that's a new species.

Parapsychology research has yet to produce its rat, despite decades of effort - and an infinitude of claims of rats of every shape and size. Upon investigation, every ratclaim turns out to be explicable by normal nonrat processes. It's safe to conclude at this point that there is no rat.

 

[AkuManiMani]

Obvious troll continues to be obvious.

You need to work on your subtly then

 

[Nonpareil]

Come now. You wouldn't ask for the time if you had a working watch.

Fair enough.

All of this allows for dishonesty on the part of the person giving you the time. They could lie by ten or more minutes and probably fool most of us.

Yep. Which is why I wouldn't accept their word on what time it is as the final authority on the matter. That's been my position all along, remember?

Right, we're never 100 percent correct, but I generally trust people who give me directions. It's been my experience that most people are honest. This rationale would apply to the nurse as well. I have no reason to believe she's lying. She's telling a remarkable story, but then so is the person who swears they rolled five 20's in a row in a D&D game.

Yep. But the person who rolled five twenties, like the nurse, is probably misremembering at least slightly. Maybe they only rolled four, but their memory is exaggerating the experience. The person who rolled five twenties is also slightly easier to believe, because we know that it is possible to do so. We don't know that it's possible to have an out-of-body-viewing experience.

In addition, you can't say that the nurse is trustworthy just because most people are at least kind of trustworthy. She might be, but we don't know, and the anecdote in question certainly can't be accepted on her word alone. She might be lying. She might be misremembering. She might also be right, but without evidence to support that, there's no reason to believe it.

True, and that would apply to whether the nurse was mistaken or not.

Yes. Your point?

You still haven't given me any reason to think that I should simply accept an anecdote as valid without any corroborating evidence.

 

[Zanders]

Actually, AkuManiMani, I have one last question. Quoting a way earlier post you made.

Like I said, the "voice" alluded to my friend having similar experiences. When I asked my friend a couple weeks later if she'd had any strange experiences she mentioned hearing a male voice speak to her on a few different occasions and a female voice speaking to her atleast once.

She reported that the male voice that spoke to her was preceded by a high-pitched ringing [at this point I had not filled her in on the details of my experience]. The voice then instructed her to stand in a particular location and do a series of odd hand gestures. She said she was a bit baffled by what was going on but followed the instructions she was given. After she did so she said she had a vivid three part vision. She said the male voice tried to communicate with her again on another occasion but her baby started crying in the other room and the voice simply said "You know what? Now is probably not the best time..."; there was a sound like a monitor being turned off and she felt the 'presence' leave.

What exactly was the nature of this "vivid three part vision"?, and why exactly did she never mention such an amazing experience before? Did she ever mention it to any of her family or friends before you? Are you sure she wasn't just making up a story that you thought sounded similar, and maybe you mixed it up to be even more similar through confirmation bias? What was the lead in question when you asked her about her experiences?

Also, when you said it talked to you about your spiritual state. What exactly did it say about your spiritual state? Did it talk about what you needed to change?

 

[AkuManiMani]

Actually, AkuManiMani, I have one last question. Quoting a way earlier post you made.

Like I said, the "voice" alluded to my friend having similar experiences. When I asked my friend a couple weeks later if she'd had any strange experiences she mentioned hearing a male voice speak to her on a few different occasions and a female voice speaking to her atleast once.

She reported that the male voice that spoke to her was preceded by a high-pitched ringing [at this point I had not filled her in on the details of my experience]. The voice then instructed her to stand in a particular location and do a series of odd hand gestures. She said she was a bit baffled by what was going on but followed the instructions she was given. After she did so she said she had a vivid three part vision. She said the male voice tried to communicate with her again on another occasion but her baby started crying in the other room and the voice simply said "You know what? Now is probably not the best time..."; there was a sound like a monitor being turned off and she felt the 'presence' leave.

What exactly was the nature of this "vivid three part vision"?, and why exactly did she never mention such an amazing experience before? Did she ever mention it to any of her family or friends before you? Are you sure she wasn't just making up a story that you thought sounded similar, and maybe you mixed it up to be even more similar through confirmation bias? What was the lead in question when you asked her about her experiences?

All I asked was if she'd had any odd experiences; the rest of the information she simply volunteered herself. The three part vision centered around three horses. If I recall correctly, she said that in the 1st segment three horses where trapped within some kind of stall or holding pen, which they had to break thru in unison in order to escape. I don't recall much of her account of the 2nd part, aside from the three horses running free thru a snowy field. In the 3rd and final segment she said the horses ran toward some kind of huge shimmering/rippling barrier; one horse passed thru, the other two could not.

I've no idea what, if anything, the visions could have meant but my guess is that if they did have some meaning they were of some personal significance. I believe she said she'd gone to certain other individuals she trusted for some advice concerning the visions and said that she ended up with 3 different interpretations. I didn't bother to ask her what those interpretations were.

Also, when you said it talked to you about your spiritual state. What exactly did it say about your spiritual state? Did it talk about what you needed to change?

Uhm...I'd respectfully like to refrain from answering that one

 

[carlitos]

respectfully

Liar.

 

[Zanders]

Uhm...I'd respectfully like to refrain from answering that one

Ok, you don't have to go in to any details. I just want to know if it was trying to give you some sort of moral advice or something. Was it something about you needing to become more spiritual? Details aren't needed, just "yes", "no" or "kind of" will be fine.

I wonder why all of this stuff is happening around people you know, where do you live? It must be a hotspot for the paranormal.

 

[AkuManiMani]

Liar.

U mad?

 

[AkuManiMani]

Ok, you don't have to go in to any details. I just want to know if it was trying to give you some sort of moral advice or something. Was it something about you needing to become more spiritual? Details aren't needed, just "yes", "no" or "kind of" will be fine.

I wonder why all of this stuff is happening around people you know, where do you live? It must be a hotspot for the paranormal.

New Jersey does have it's fair share of freaks, I s'pose

ETA: And you've milked enough information out of me as it is. I really don't wish to talk about certain details regarding the incident.

 

[Zanders]

If you don't want to say it here, could you send me a little about it in a private message? You could tell me the nature of the spiritual stuff it told you without going in to any embarrassing details.

 

[Malerin]

Fair enough.



Yep. Which is why I wouldn't accept their word on what time it is as the final authority on the matter. That's been my position all along, remember?

Well, my point isn't that they would be some "final authority", but rather that you would take their word. I generally believe people who tell me the time when I ask them. Maybe I'm gullible that way.

Put in epistemic terms, before I ask the person what time it is, let's say my degree of belief that it's 4:15 is 75%. Then I ask the person what time it is and they tell me it's 4:25. My belief that it's 4:15 now drops to like 33%. The anecdotal evidence alone, absent any other evidence (the person is a stranger after all) is enough to disconfirm my original belief by quite a lot. Anything that confirms or disconfirms a belief is evidence.

Yep. But the person who rolled five twenties, like the nurse, is probably misremembering at least slightly. Maybe they only rolled four, but their memory is exaggerating the experience.

You would automatically assume that? Even rolling four in a row is pretty remarkable. I would certainly consider the possibility they were remembering it correctly and weren't lying. In the case of the nurse reporting the veridical account, too many people here won't even consider the possibility she may be correct. I don't consider that very skeptical. Skepticism cuts both ways: we don't automatically believe people and we don't automatically disbelieve them, either. Too many people forget the latter.

The person who rolled five twenties is also slightly easier to believe, because we know that it is possible to do so. We don't know that it's possible to have an out-of-body-viewing experience.

Of course it's possible. I have no information that's it's impossible, do you? I don't see a logical contradiction anywhere.

In addition, you can't say that the nurse is trustworthy just because most people are at least kind of trustworthy. She might be, but we don't know, and the anecdote in question certainly can't be accepted on her word alone. She might be lying. She might be misremembering. She might also be right, but without evidence to support that, there's no reason to believe it.

True, I don't automatically believe her. Are you open to the possibility she may be right? Not the "tea cup orbitting Jupiter" possibility, but maybe something appraoching a 5% or 10% chance her story is true?

You still haven't given me any reason to think that I should simply accept an anecdote as valid without any corroborating evidence.

I've given you two examples already: directions and time. A third would be a psychologist who meets a patient for the first time. A doctor who asks a patient where it hurts. Three people you've just met who tell you they just saw a shooting star. Someone you meet on a cruise talking about their trip to Africa. We don't go around demanding corroborating evidence when people we don't know tell us something. We accept most of it at face value.

Think about what you know about the world and how little of the world you've directly experienced and how little of the information you've been able to confirm yourself. 99....9999% of what we know about the world depends on a web of anecdotal information.

 

[PixyMisa]

Put in epistemic terms, before I ask the person what time it is, let's say my degree of belief that it's 4:15 is 75%. Then I ask the person what time it is and they tell me it's 4:25. My belief that it's 4:15 now drops to like 33%. The anecdotal evidence alone, absent any other evidence (the person is a stranger after all) is enough to disconfirm my original belief by quite a lot. Anything that confirms or disconfirms a belief is evidence.

And if they tell you that it's 4:65, you wouldn't believe them for an instant.

You would automatically assume that? Even rolling four in a row is pretty remarkable. I would certainly consider the possibility they were remembering it correctly and weren't lying. In the case of the nurse reporting the veridical account, too many people here won't even consider the possibility she may be correct. I don't consider that very skeptical. Skepticism cuts both ways: we don't automatically believe people and we don't automatically disbelieve them, either. Too many people forget the latter.

We don't automatically disbelieve them. We apply Bayesian analysis. We evaluate new evidence in light of existing evidence.

In this case, we have an anecdote of an anecdote. We have two layers of confirmation bias, misreporting and confabulation, no corroboration, no confirmable details.

Prior probability: Almost zero.
Value of evidence: Almost zero.
Adjusted probability: Almost zero.

If there were a 5% or 10% chance her report was accurate, we'd be buried in hard evidence of the supernatural nature of NDEs.

Instead, we have none whatsoever.

It's difficult to evaluate exactly how unlikely it is that any of this nonsense is true. Certainly events with only a 1 in 10⁹ chance happen all the time, and are perfectly ordinary and verifiable, so it's far, far less than that. Indeed, we regularly measure and assess events that happen one time in 10¹⁷, and these are still common enough that we record them actually happening, and they can present real engineering problems on an individual basis, never mind for the entire planet (another factor of about 10¹⁰).

Based on that, I'd put all supernatural claims together being somewhere below 1 in 10²⁵ of any being true, and any one claim below 1 in 10³⁰.

So, not 5% or 10%, but I'd be willing to grant you perhaps 0.0000000000000000000000000001%.

 

[tsig]

We can give lots of examples, but defining it is hard. Prior to 1996, someone claiming to have seen a Laotian rock rat would have been subjected to the same ridicule: they're not common and nobody had ever seen one. This is true of other Lazarus species too.

But you're right, we tend to readily believe common place occurences and require proof for uncommon occurences. I'm not sure that OBE's would qualify as "uncommon", though. Millions of people have reported having them.

Many more millions have not reported having them.

 

[PixyMisa]

Plus we're still waiting for the rat.

 

[PixyMisa]

Anyway, just following up on my previous post:

Based on this assessment, it is more likely for someone to win the lottery four times in a row purely by chance than for them to have predicted the numbers by some psychic ability.

Three times in a row, we'd assume they'd cheated until proved otherwise. (Assuming a fairly average lottery, i.e. they only had on the order of a millionth of the total tickets.)

Five times in a row, after at least a dozen mutually independent investiagtions into cheating all turning up negative results, then we'd start to suspect something odd going on.

 

[Zanders]

From this point on I'll have to remember to ask people who claim to have had contact with angels/spirits/aliens/whatever what it sounded and felt like when they are being talked to. I want to see if the accounts are all similar with the ringing and spark feeling.

 

[Robin]

She never specified and was very evasive and cryptic about answering certain questions.

So you asked her things like who she was, what she was, where she was and so on and she gave evasive and/or cryptic answers?

Did you ask her why she was being evasive or cryptic?