A more interesting question then arises as to what `causes’ the cycles in the Southern Oscillation. We know it results from gargantuan changes in ocean currents and in deep water upwelling in the eastern Pacific, but as to what triggers this response is still an unknown. The answer may well lie in
long-term solar changes. The Greenhouse industry readily blames greenhouse gases, but the idea that a few parts per million of CO2 can cause the overturning of trillions of megatonnes of sea water is fanciful to say the least, a reasoning based more on ideology than on science. Those who point to greenhouse gases as the `cause’ of El Niño fail to describe exactly what mechanism they imagine the gases to be performing to achieve such a feat.
It will be noticed from the chart that the two volcanic eruptions had no effect whatever on the course of El Niño or La Niña. The SOI cycled back and forth, quite oblivious to the cooling being imposed by the eruptions. Thus the Southern Oscillation is not dependent on, or influenced by, changes in atmospheric temperature, whether these changes are caused by volcanic eruptions or, by alleged changes in temperature due to greenhouse gases. In fact, it is quite the opposite - the Southern Oscillation forces the temperature to change, not the other way around.
And now to prediction
Based on the the assumption that the Southern Oscillation is the primary driver of year-to-year global temperature, with a 6 to 9 month lag time, we can now predict that since the SOI has now gone sharply into La Niña mode in the last 6 months, global temperature will follow (with the predicted time lag) and fall to below the zero line (the long term average of temperature) in the next few months. The latest monthly value for temperature was +0.33°C in October 1998, after reaching a peak of +0.72°C in April. Since the SOI moved into La Niña mode in June, we can expect global temperature to fall below the zero line by March 1999.
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