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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Thanks! It does indeed look that way so far.

If you're interested in better understanding Bayes' theorem, check out my post on Less Wrong entitled "Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way)". It has pictures! (Unfortunately, I'm not yet able to post links here.)

Thanks for that, yes, pictures a help on this one! (link here, btw). I preferred that explanation to the alternative one on the site, probably because I'm a 'tell me how the trees relate to the forest' type of person too, LOL. Also the equations generally make my mind go blank, while the diagrams make it a bunch easier to visualize them.

My problem when reading that site is that there are too many tempting links in the articles themselves that I want to go and read, and which usually require just as much effort to understand them as the original article (currently have 'Illusion of Transparency', 'Generalizing from One Example' and 'Working hurts less than procrastinating' open in my browser...). This is a good thing but means I always end up getting sidetracked!
 
DNA explanations

Charlie Wilkes:


It should be noted that Sollecito's appeal also emphasizes the likelihood of contamination, of course, in addition to arguing that the DNA doesn't match.

komponisto,

Let me give you a short, somewhat speculative answer for now, but I may come back to this question later. First, Raffaele matched Meredith at about 11 alleles, not loci. This means that Meredith's profile, being the strongest on the clasp, would cover up a decent fraction of Raffaele's profile. I have sometimes wondered whether Dr. Tagliabracci was trying to point out that Dr. Stefanoni was using a suspect-centered method of analysis, as much or more than he was trying to dispute that the profile was Raffaele's.

I think that contamination in the lab is the most likely explanation for the knife profile, and contamination during collection is a likely explanation for the bra clasp. However, secondary transfer cannot be ruled out for either, and the police have behaved in such a way as to raise the possibility of tampering.
 
thin and unconvincing

Once again: that the perpetrator was an African man; that there were plural attackers; that there was a sexual assault; and that she (amanda) knew the positioning of the body at death WITHOUT being able to see into the room.

loverofzion,

Amanda thought that Meredith's body was in the wardrobe with only a foot sticking out. In other words, she was wrong. Someone's using a singular versus using a plural pronoun to describe the attacker(s) is a thin and unconvincing argument. People often use a plural pronoun to avoid being gender-specific, among other reasons.
 
I'd be glad to be proven wrong, but my belief based on the evidence available to me is that the people who believe that Knox and Sollecito are guilty are a self-selecting group of people who simply aren't capable of thinking this way, in much the same way that the people who believe in homeopathy are a self-selecting group of people who don't understand the scientific method.
Minor point, but aren't people who believe Knox and Sollecito innocent at least as much of a self-selected group as those who think them guilty? What's to say it's not you whose eyes are too blinded by confirmation bias and group-think to see the truth?
 
Well either it is contamination and raf's DNA went flying around that room; or else there was no DNA present.
Which one is it?
YOu can't have contamination if there was never any of his DNA there.
How do these geniouses think the DNA arrived in that room.

The obvious answer is that means it didn't occur because he was in that room. Had Raffaele been there killing Meredith and so close he got something on the bra clasp, then there would be something else there to corroborate that.

The contamination would have come from the grabby forensics team or in the lab.
 
Oh, and just as a small aside to the toxic hard core of people who seem more interested in personalities than arguments: as I've stated very many times before, I only developed an interest in this case in around March 2010, when I bought "Darkness Descending" (funnily enough, I bought it because it was in a 3-for-2 deal in WH Smith's). The book painted a very pro-guilt picture, including a number of "facts" which I was later to discover were not actually facts at all. The "fact" in this book which most convinced me of Knox's and Sollecito's guilt (at that point in my knowledge) was the timing of the phone calls made by Knox and Sollecito to mother/sister/police on the 2nd November. Since the book stated as fact that these calls were made after the postal police officers arrived, I simply could not reconcile this with anything other than culpability. And, in addition, the book made the forensic evidence out to be very solid and clear-cut. And it stated as near-fact that the break-in was staged.

So, it's entirely true to say that in April 2010 I was a "firm guilter". However, I was niggled by the accounts of the 5th/6th November interrogations of Sollecito and Knox, and decided (for the first time, incidentally) to search out some online forums to see what others were saying about the case, and to try to get more understanding of the parts that niggled me.

Naturally, the sites which first came up in a search were PMF and TJMK. So that's where I went. I'd never even heard of JREF at that point (although I was aware of Randi, and have long been a fan of similar thinkers such as Derren Brown, Penn & Teller and Richard Dawkins). So I started posting on PMF. But the more I posted and interacted, the more I came to realise that this was a community primarily consisting of aggressive zealots, who somehow managed to blend together some interesting discussion of the case (and some very good research resources) with pack-like personal attacks on anyone who wasn't part of the clique. I almost immediately started to attract personal abuse, which made me a bit confused and somewhat defensive. And I soon began to understand that the prevailing ethos on PMF was to "circle the wagons" and defend their ideology at any cost - all under a spurious (and misleading) cloak of "ensuring justice for poor Meredith", and some sort of bizarre claim to be the "protectors" of Meredith Kercher and her memory. Needless to say, alarm bells started ringing.

During April and May, I read and learned far more about the case. I learned that the 2nd November phone calls were almost certainly made before the postal police arrived. I learned that the forensic evidence was not nearly as strong and clear-cut as I'd first been led to believe. I learned that the break-in was nowhere near proven to have been staged, and in fact was consistent in very many ways with a real break-in. I learned that the prosecutor and the first court were most likely completely wrong about the time of death, the manner of death, the veracity of key witnesses, and the way in which they treated Knox and Sollecito in November 2007. And I learned about JREF, and started posting here.

So I went from being a "firm guilter" with a couple of questions that I wanted answering, to being more and more on the fence, to being pretty convinced that the convictions of Knox and Sollecito were unsafe. It's called an iterative process. And since then, further learning and understanding has led me to think that Knox and Sollecito were likely not to have had anything to do with the murder of Meredith Kercher whatsoever.
 
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contamination misunderstandings

(1) Contamination is not the same thing as planting.

(2) What is so hard to understand about there being more than one problem with a purported piece of evidence?

komponisto,

(1) I agree, and secondary transfer prior to evidence collection is also a possibility for the clasp and knife.

(2) One criticism of Dr. Tagliabracci's position that the two possibilities (it's not Raffaele's profile versus it is, but it is there by contamination) are mutually exclusive. I have never understood this criticism. If it is someone else's profile, it could still have arrived from contamination.
 
Filomena was only ten minutes away by car. Her alibi is no stronger than Amanda's. Each said that she was with her boyfriend.

You left out the parts where Filomena doesn't lie to the police, doesn't change her story and doesn't confess to being in the apartment when the murder took place.
 
komponisto,

I am rereading your lesswrong article and will comment more on it later. The first thing that jumps out at me is the following:
By far the most important evidence in a murder investigation will therefore be the evidence that is the closest to the crime itself -- evidence on and around the victim, as well as details stored in the brains of people who were present during the act. Less important will be evidence obtained from persons and objects a short distance away from the crime scene; and the importance decays rapidly from there as you move further out.

It follows that you cannot possibly expect to reliably arrive at the correct answer by starting a few steps removed in the causal chain, say with a person you find "suspicious" for some reason, and working forward to come up with a plausible scenario for how the crime was committed. That would be privileging the hypothesis. Instead, you have to start from the actual crime scene, or as close to it as you can get, and work backward, letting yourself be blown by the winds of evidence toward one or more possible suspects.

I hope I am not imposing a strawman reading on this and would appreciate clarification. Do you mean to say that the polices suspicions about people should not drive them to put more effort into investigating them than anybody else, lest that lead them into some kind of viscious cycle of looking for evidence against them and thereby reinforcing their suspicions?
 
she retrieved her computer

You left out the parts where Filomena doesn't lie to the police, doesn't change her story and doesn't confess to being in the apartment when the murder took place.

Alt+F4,

You left out the part where Filomena disturbed the crime scene and then lawyered up. Look, I don't think she had anything to do with the crime, but her actions still make an interesting comparison and contrast to Amanda's.
 
Amanda and Raffaele did talk to Luca and Paola before the questioning, in the car on the way to the Questura. They confirmed that Meredith was dead and that her throat had been slashed. So Amanda and Raffaele knew that before going in. Paola witnessed Amanda crying. Frank Sfarzo reconstructed the conversation:
R: Did they kill her?
L: Yes, they cut her throat.
R: With a knife?
L: No, with the bread.

How did Luca Altieri know that Meredith's throat had been slashed when he put no more than his foot in the room, the body was covered and everyone was immediately ordered out of the apartment?


 
How did Luca Altieri know that Meredith's throat had been slashed when he put no more than his foot in the room, the body was covered and everyone was immediately ordered out of the apartment?



Because Lalli, Mignini and the police were talking openly about it (and even gesticulating about it), in full earshot of most of the housemates or their friends. Simples!
 
komponisto,

One other thing:

Maybe it's "unlikely" that Amanda would have behaved this way if she were innocent. But is the degree of improbabilty here anything like the improbability of her having participated in a sex-orgy-killing without leaving a single piece of physical evidence behind? While someone else left all kinds of traces? When you had no reason to suspect her at all without looking a good distance outside Meredith's room, far away from the important evidence?
I'm not sure what you are saying here. Is it that you feel the odds of her behaving in this way, given that she is innocent are low, but not as low as her leaving as little evidence as was left, given that she took part in the killing? Or are you comparing it with the odds of her taking part in a sex-killing and leaving as little evidence as was left, given that her housemate was killed in a sexually aggravated murder?

How would one go about estimating these kinds of odds?
 
Alt+F4,

You left out the part where Filomena disturbed the crime scene and then lawyered up. Look, I don't think she had anything to do with the crime, but her actions still make an interesting comparison and contrast to Amanda's.

I don't she had anything to do with the crime either and everything she did was quite innocent. Who wouldn't look through their stuff to see if anything was missing? As for getting a lawyer, smart woman. Amanda was a fool to not get one from the begining.

The interesting comparison is that Filomena didn't lie to the police, didn't change her story and didn't admit to being in the apartment when the murder took place.
 
falsifiable hypotheses

Minor point, but aren't people who believe Knox and Sollecito innocent at least as much of a self-selected group as those who think them guilty? What's to say it's not you whose eyes are too blinded by confirmation bias and group-think to see the truth?

shuttlt,

Pro-innocence commenters have listed at least two pieces of untested evidence that would cause them to rethink the case, if they were competently tested and the results came out a certain way. Those two items are the interior of the knife, which might be tested for blood that has entered in (via capillary action?), and the putative semen stain. Can you or another pro-guilt commenter come up with a similar list? I have asked this before, but no one has given me a good answer.

Our discussion of substrate controls in DNA forensics is a related issue. Good scientists try to frame their questions as testable hypotheses and then try to falsify them. Dr. Stefanoni did not (so far as anybody knows) perform substrate controls, even though a good scientist would have thought to do them just on the basis of basic principles.
 
I don't she had anything to do with the crime either and everything she did was quite innocent. Who wouldn't look through their stuff to see if anything was missing? As for getting a lawyer, smart woman. Amanda was a fool to not get one from the begining.

The interesting comparison is that Filomena didn't lie to the police, didn't change her story and didn't admit to being in the apartment when the murder took place.

Have you got full transcripts of Filomena's interviews with the police, then?

Or the audio recordings, perhaps? ;)
 
loverofzion,

Filomena was only ten minutes away by car. Her alibi is no stronger than Amanda's. Each said that she was with her boyfriend.

Wasn't Filomena at a birthday party? with many more than just her boyfriend to vouch for her whereabouts?

The obvious answer is that means it didn't occur because he was in that room. Had Raffaele been there killing Meredith and so close he got something on the bra clasp, then there would be something else there to corroborate that.

The contamination would have come from the grabby forensics team or in the lab.

There was no other DNA of Raffaele found in the cottage except for the cigarette butt taken in the first round of collections. Secondary transfer at the scene on December 18th is therefore unlikely. Contamination at the lab seems also unlikely if this butt was processed many weeks before. Seems we are left with deliberate planting of evidence, which personally I don't believe happened.
Here's a thought though. What about those luminol footprints attributed to Raffaele? could someone step on one with their booties, step on the clasp, transferring the minutest amount of his DNA, and voila!
Just trying to help your theory. :)
 
Have you got full transcripts of Filomena's interviews with the police, then?

Or the audio recordings, perhaps? ;)

No. Do you think the Massei Report is wrong on this point? Why?

Other than Meredith the key of the apartment was available to Laura Mezzetti, who was however away from Perugia that day, at Montefiascone at her parents’; Filomena Romanelli, who was however with her fiancé at the house of her girlfriend Paola Grande and the latter’s boyfriend, Luca Altieri, who was celebrating his birthday

So Filomena's alibi isn't just backed up by her boyfriend, her other friends were with her too. Now it's not clear how long Filomena and her boyfriend were with their friends but it's incorrect to say she has the same alibi as Amanda...who btw, has no alibi.
 
shuttlt,

Pro-innocence commenters have listed at least two pieces of untested evidence that would cause them to rethink the case, if they were competently tested and the results came out a certain way. Those two items are the interior of the knife, which might be tested for blood that has entered in (via capillary action?), and the putative semen stain. Can you or another pro-guilt commenter come up with a similar list? I have asked this before, but no one has given me a good answer.
You've asked me this before and I've answered you.

Our discussion of substrate controls in DNA forensics is a related issue. Good scientists try to frame their questions as testable hypotheses and then try to falsify them. Dr. Stefanoni did not (so far as anybody knows) perform substrate controls, even though a good scientist would have thought to do them just on the basis of basic principles.
OK. In that case, do I have you right that you believe it would have been standard practice to gather other items (spoons etc) from the drawer that Raffaele's kitchen knife was removed from? I don't mean to bang on about this, in fact I'd forgotten the discussion until you brought it up, but people keep discounting the knife in part because such controls were not done. As discussed I've seen no citations indicating this is how the police normally behave anywhere, just Steve Moore saying that in a different location they should have gathered up every knife.
 
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