Firstly, I wouldn't equate Amanda and Raffaele's childhoods to that of Guede. However, this has gone past profiling. We aren't trying to pick out the most likely candidate for this crime. Are we? I mean real evidence is the only type of evidence that should be used in court, isn't it?
As for crimes, Raffaele broke into a school, a lawyer's office, and an appartment. In those places he was discovered with a stolen laptop and
a stolen kitchen knife.
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These episodes, concerning the Milan nursery school, the burglary in the law office in Perugia and the burglary of Tramontano'ʹs house (although for the last one, the identification of Rudy was expressed only by the phrase "ʺI believe I recognise him"ʺ) reveal obvious and notable differences with respect to the episode concerning
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the broken window in Romanelli'ʹs room; even stronger differences emerge if one assumes that the person who made use of that entry was Rudy Guede.
Even if one accepts that Rudy was the burglar who broke into the law office of the lawyers Brocchi and Palazzoli and into Tramontano'ʹs house, it must be observed that Rudy was not known by these, nor by the director of the nursery school in via Plinio, Milan; this situation is entirely different from the one at via della Pergola (and the difference is not a minor one), where Rudy knew the boys from the downstairs flat and knew Meredith and Amanda, and they knew him.
In the nursery school, there was no breaking and entering and no violence with regard to any objects, or any climbing. In the law office of the lawyers in Perugia, the burglar was able to enter through "ʺa French window opening onto a small balcony overlooking the inner courtyard of the building"ʺ (p. 41 hearing of June 26, 2009), so that he was able to make use of a surface (the balcony) on which he could move with reasonable ease.[...]
Unlike the prosecution, I find NO reason to dismiss the similarities as unimportant. Conversely, I find NO similarities with the prior history of Amanda and Raffaele that I find significant.