CME's, active regions and high energy flares

[Michael Mozina]

FYI that dark filament I mentioned erupted on the 6th. Spaceweather has a nice image. Hey look, they "predicted" it would erupt too. I wonder how they did that since everybody knows that there are no "maths" associated with these types of filament eruption flares!

EPIC BLAST: As predicted, the a "mega-filament" of solar magnetism erupted on Dec. 6th, producing a blast of epic proportions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action as the 700,000-km long structure lifted off the stellar surface and--snap!!--hurled itself into space. Click on the arrow to play the movie:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2010/06dec10/epicblast2.gif?PHPSESSID=4tuda7g4kjfestlubibo64ot32

 

[Reality Check]

FYI that dark filament I mentioned erupted on the 6th. Spaceweather has a nice image. Hey look, they "predicted" it would erupt too. I wonder how they did that since everybody knows that there are no "maths" associated with these types of filament eruption flares!

FYI: It loks like they did the same thing as you did - they guessed that the filament looked unstable and so it would erupt as most filaments do. Calling it a prediction is stretching the concept.

This is a prediction:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt

roduct: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 06 2200 UTC
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 1 1 1
Class_X 1 1 1
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2010 Dec 07
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2010 Dec 06
1131 7 2 0 0
1132 5 1 0 0
1133 5 0 0 0

 

[Michael Mozina]

FYI: It loks like they did the same thing as you did - they guessed that the filament looked unstable and so it would erupt as most filaments do. Calling it a prediction is stretching the concept.

This is a prediction:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

That "prediction" had nothing to do with the filament eruption in question. There were no C or M class flares on the 6th.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/12/06/ahead_20101206_cor2_512.mpg

Mass flow? What mass flow? Discharge? What discharge? Oy.

 

[Reality Check]

That "prediction" had nothing to do with the filament eruption in question. There were no C or M class flares on the 6th.

I dis say that the quoted prediction had anything to do with the filament.
It is a scientific prediction of flares.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/12/06/ahead_20101206_cor2_512.mpg

Mass flow? What mass flow? Discharge? What discharge? Oy.

Mass flow! Mass flow! Discharge of plasma into space! Discharge of plasma into space! Oy

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0193.mpg

FYI, There was a pretty nice dark filament eruption flare at about the 2:30 position yesterday.

You'll note that there were no obviously large (C or M class) x-ray spikes during that time frame.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

 

[Reality Check]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt
roduct: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 11 2200 UTC
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 1 1 1
Class_X 1 1 1
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2010 Dec 12
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2010 Dec 11
1131 10 1 1 0
1133 5 1 0 0

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20110308_xray.gif

FYI, there have been something like 6 M class flares in the past 24 hours and 1164 is still extremely active.

 

[Reality Check]

Nice. There were also numerous C class flares.
Where were your predictions for the 6 M class flares in the past 24 hours?
Or maybe you are not bothering since you are the only one in the world able to apply your method of looking at images and saying that an active region will be active!

 

[Michael Mozina]

Nice. There were also numerous C class flares.
Where were your predictions for the 6 M class flares in the past 24 hours?

What difference would it have made here anyway? I could have predicted all 7 M class flares down to a 20 minute window, and you'd still ignore it.

Or maybe you are not bothering since you are the only one in the world able to apply your method of looking at images and saying that an active region will be active!

I definitely wouldn't bother doing it here again, that's for sure.

 

[Reality Check]

What difference would it have made here anyway? I could have predicted all 7 M class flares down to a 20 minute window, and you'd still ignore it.

It would make a difference. If you could predict any flares down to a 20 minute window in a statistically significant manner, I would campaign for you to get the Nobel Prize.

 

[Michael Mozina]

It would make a difference. If you could predict any flares down to a 20 minute window in a statistically significant manner, I would campaign for you to get the Nobel Prize.

Ya, and pigs might fly too.

 

[Reality Check]

Ya, and pigs might fly too.

Sure - if you could make statistically significant predictions, pigs would fly

But I at least am honest enough to say that if you could do that I would applaud you.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0211.mpg

FYI, there was a LARGE dark filament eruption yesterday. It shows up really nicely in the 211A images and the 335A images.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/02/24/behind_20120224_cor2_512.mpg

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/02/24/ahead_20120224_cor2_512.mpg

Yep, that one is going to impact the Earth, and it's a pretty large CME. Fortunately "most" of the mass contained in the filament went up and away from the plane of the Earth.

 

[Michael Mozina]

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

FYI, dark filament eruption CME's do NOT necessarily generate large x-ray bursts as this last CME demonstrates. Other types of CME's and flares generate large X rays spikes. The difference between these two types of CME's is that X-ray flares are CIRCUIT OVERLOAD types of flares, where the Bennett Pinch filament is pinched SO HARD, it literally cuts the thread in two and the whole thread/circuit erupts, releasing all the circuit/magnetic energy into one violent electrical discharge.

The dark filament eruption flares are not overloading the circuit in terms of current. The filament simply becomes unstable over time as it lifts up and away from the surface. As it moves further into the atmosphere, the dark filament becomes unstable and eventually "erupts", spewing the material in the thread into space. Sometimes the filaments erupt inward by the way. Since the current doesn't ever actually overload the thread/circuit, it doesn't generate much in the way of x-ray bursts, but it can spew a lot of mass into space.

 

[Michael Mozina]

Oh wait, let me guess? "Dark filament eruption? What dark filament?"

 

[Reality Check]

Oh wait, let me guess? "Dark filament eruption? What dark filament?"

Oh wait, let me guess - you are wrong !

Dark filament eruption! There is a dark filament!

This is standard solar physics.
CME are associated with filaments.
Filaments that are against the bright background of the Sun look dark in many wavelengths.
Filaments that are against the dark background of the Sun look bright.
Both kinds of filaments produce CME.
Duh !

 

[Reality Check]

FYI, dark filament eruption CME's do NOT necessarily generate large x-ray bursts as this last CME demonstrates.
...more ignorance of solar pohysics snipped...

FYI, CME's NEVER generate x-ray bursts.
Filament eruptions may generate x-rays.

 

[Michael Mozina]

FYI, CME's NEVER generate x-ray bursts.
Filament eruptions may generate x-rays.

And the primary difference between the two kinds of filament eruptions is in the WAY that the filament "erupts'. In X-ray events (bright filament eruptions), the thread experiences a 'circuit overload". The thread is literally pinched in two, interrupting the circuit, and all the circuit and magnetic energy gets released in one giant "electrical discharge" event. The stored EM energy is RELEASED by the discharge process.

A "dark filament" does NOT typically experience a circuit overload scenario. It becomes "unstable", particularly when it lifts away from the surface. The thread erupts when it loses stability, but it doesn't experience the same "DISCHARGE" process, therefore it doesn't generate the x-rays, gamma rays and neutron pinch processes of "bright filament" eruptions.

 

[GeeMack]

And the primary difference between the two kinds of filament eruptions is in the WAY that the filament "erupts'. In X-ray events (bright filament eruptions), the thread experiences a 'circuit overload". The thread is literally pinched in two, interrupting the circuit, and all the circuit and magnetic energy gets released in one giant "electrical discharge" event. The stored EM energy is RELEASED by the discharge process.

A "dark filament" does NOT typically experience a circuit overload scenario. It becomes "unstable", particularly when it lifts away from the surface. The thread erupts when it loses stability, but it doesn't experience the same "DISCHARGE" process, therefore it doesn't generate the x-rays, gamma rays and neutron pinch processes of "bright filament" eruptions.

Just as a sort of disclaimer for anyone lurking, the above comment is a wholly fictional description of the actual physics involved. It is wishful thinking, made up for the purpose of maintaining an unsupportable fantasy about the way the Sun works. To see exactly how the nonsense above fails and to learn some of the real science, check out the Electric Sun Theory thread.