North Korea readies missiles against the USA

[Quad4_72]

All this stuff about China won't risk it, sounds an awful lot like the incorrect predictions of 1950. We held a large technological edge back then, but a million Chinese managed to overwhelm that technology. This is not some backwater country anymore. They can keep coming. The Chinese will not run out of soldiers. They have over 2 million in their active army and hundreds of millions in reserve.

Holy crap, hundreds of millions in their reserve? That's strange, because I only count 800,000. http://www.globalfirepower.com/active-reserve-military-manpower.asp

Are you talking about untrained military manpower? If you are, yes they have quite a bit of untrained military manpower at their disposal. What good do you think that would do if their equipment, vehicles, and airplanes get destroyed? Even if they DID have tanks, jets, and other vehicles left, how effective do you think they could be used with men who have little or no training? Again, I am NOT saying that China would just roll over and give up.

 

[WildCat]

With a withering assertion like that you must be right Dont let anything like proof get in the way

Your claim, you explain how your analogy works.

Because I dure as hell don't see how one oppressive dictatorial government propping up an even more oppressive dictatorial government in order to prevent an imaginary invasion by a modern liberal democracy has any similarities at all to the relationship between the US and Canada.

 

[A Laughing Baby]

Compared to the USA it isn't even close to technologically advanced.

This is not true, at least in terms of technology required to win limited ground that is of strategic importance to China (i.e. taiwan).

 

[keale]

And we all know the North Koreans will never expect the US to destroy their bridges, blow up their railways or destroy their communications infrastructure

You have yet to show what the NK can do to counter an attack other than to say that they can and we are under estimating NK. What exactly can they do when we destroy all communications, roads, bridges, and rail. What can they do to counter the air attack? How about naval power? Do you really think they have a chance in hell against a carrier battle group?

So is it your assertion is that they could wage asymmetrical warfare similar to Afghanistan? There is no centralized power in Afghanistan like there is in NK. We are fighting tribal peoples whos allegiance is to whos paying them top dollar quite different from the central power structure of NK. In fact NK is much closer to Saddam and Iraq in that regard. NK people are not allowed to think independently so what happens when the dear leader can no longer give orders?

 

[MG1962]

Your claim, you explain how your analogy works.

Because I dure as hell don't see how one oppressive dictatorial government propping up an even more oppressive dictatorial government in order to prevent an imaginary invasion by a modern liberal democracy has any similarities at all to the relationship between the US and Canada.

So it is your contention, only certain 'types' of governments can have special relationships?

I suppose the two nations fighting a combined war against the Japanese for nearly 35 years counts for nothing, or that the Korean government lived in exile in Manchuria for a fair chunck of that time counts for nothing either

But it gets better, the original Kim was a Soviet puppet, put in place because of his lack of ties with China. This made no difference to China and North Korea's special relationships

Within three years, despite Stalin vetoing the attack, China gave unconditional support to North Korea during the Korean War. This led to it own range of problems between the Soviets and the Chinese for years to come

As recently as August 2010 - both the Chinese and North Korean leaders gave very extensive speeches regarding the 'special relationship' you dont seem to know anything about.

 

[MG1962]

You have yet to show what the NK can do to counter an attack other than to say that they can and we are under estimating NK. What exactly can they do when we destroy all communications, roads, bridges, and rail. What can they do to counter the air attack? How about naval power? Do you really think they have a chance in hell against a carrier battle group?

Who has said those attacks wont be successfull. It is how you train your troops for what will follow.

And if the Australian Army is smart enough to design its battle doctrine around just this type of event, I am sure the NK are equally smart enough to figure it out as well.

Here is a list of other countries who figured it out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind

 

[keale]

This is not true, at least in terms of technology required to win limited ground that is of strategic importance to China (i.e. taiwan).

Taiwan is well armed and trained for that not to mention China is at a disadvantage in the air never mind that we would help them out.

That being said it would never happen China has too much to lose.

 

[caniswalensis]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXNJMP8ir4&feature=related

 

[Ziggurat]

Who has said those attacks wont be successfull. It is how you train your troops for what will follow.

Why on earth would they train their troops to deal with a collapse of command structures? That's dangerous. It violates the fiction that North Korea is strong and we are weak, but more importantly, cultivating independence of thought and action among those with weapons is the LAST thing a totalitarian and oppressive government is going to want to do. That's how you encourage a coup.

 

[Tolls]

So it is your contention, only certain 'types' of governments can have special relationships?

I suppose the two nations fighting a combined war against the Japanese for nearly 35 years counts for nothing, or that the Korean government lived in exile in Manchuria for a fair chunck of that time counts for nothing either

But it gets better, the original Kim was a Soviet puppet, put in place because of his lack of ties with China. This made no difference to China and North Korea's special relationships

Within three years, despite Stalin vetoing the attack, China gave unconditional support to North Korea during the Korean War. This led to it own range of problems between the Soviets and the Chinese for years to come

As recently as August 2010 - both the Chinese and North Korean leaders gave very extensive speeches regarding the 'special relationship' you dont seem to know anything about.

That's as may be, but China now is not the China of 1950. China now, to be honest, has more in common with South Korea than it has with North Korea. North Korea hasn't change in 60 years...China has, markedly.

They won't risk their economy propping up the north if the north go off on one. They can't afford to, for their own internal stability.

 

[keale]

Who has said those attacks wont be successfull. It is how you train your troops for what will follow.

And if the Australian Army is smart enough to design its battle doctrine around just this type of event, I am sure the NK are equally smart enough to figure it out as well.

Here is a list of other countries who figured it out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stay-behind

Heres your list

* Auxiliary Units (United Kingdom)
* Operation Gladio (Italy, although working in many countries)
o O&I (Netherlands)
o Lochos Oreinon Katadromon, or LOK (Greece)
o OWSGV (Austria)
o Plan Bleu, La Rose des Vents, and Arc-en-ciel (France)
o ROC (Norway)
o SDRA8 and STC/Mob (Belgium)
o Bund Deutscher Jugend - Technischer Dienst, or TD BJD (Germany)
* Nihtilä-Haahti plan (Finland)
* Projekt-26 (P-26, Switzerland)
* Werwolf (Nazi Germany)
* Regional Force Surveillance Units (Australia), non-secret units of the Royal Australian Corps of Infantry with officially acknowledged 'stay-behind' duties.
* Informationsbyrån ('IB') in Sweden, possibly.


All of those countries are a far far far cry from NK. So what happens when NK central power is destroyed? Do they keep fighting or do they surrender hoping for a better life in the south? Keep in mind the vast majority of NK is living in dirt. NK has the resources to maintain their iron fist power over their people what will the people do when that power is gone? Were not talking about a western democracy like Australia where the people like their system were talking about NK where thinking the wrong things will get you killed.

 

[McHrozni]

Hell...it could be a godsend for them. A war starts. The U.S. gets involved. China gets involved. Using the pretext of war on their border (and the inevitable fact that N. Korea will directly request military support from the Chinese ally, making everything 'legal', ie. its not an invasion), China moves into N. Korea. Once there, their military quickly takes over, pushing back S. Korea and the U.S.

That's a bit optimistic, don't you think? You know, the army of South Korea is over twice as large as the US force that took out Iraq in a fortnight, and not significantly worse off in equipment. Their air force is about 40% the size of Chinese air force, and that can be quickly brought to superiority with a few US carriers. NK air force is a joke, and probably more of a threat to it's pilots than the enemy.

Aside of the land war, there is the sea war at stake. Chinese navy and commercial navy would be swept from the seas in a week - most certainly before they would be able to declare "North Korean aggression was over".

All this aside, the economic impact of the war would be cataclysmic for the West, and that would pale compared to what it would do to China. It would likely end their meteoric rise to power for at least a few decades, and throw a few hundred million people back into poverty for good. Hardly a situation Chinese leadership wants, I suspect, and certainly no godsend.

This isn't the world of 1950s, where you can actually wage major wars. The economic impact alone is more than enough to ensure a war between two major powers is all but impossible.

McHrozni

 

[Matt78]

Perhaps they really do have a death wish

Their head of state, statistically, shouldn't live too much longer, so maybe he doesn't care.

 

[Spindrift]

That's as may be, but China now is not the China of 1950. China now, to be honest, has more in common with South Korea than it has with North Korea. North Korea hasn't change in 60 years...China has, markedly.

They won't risk their economy propping up the north if the north go off on one. They can't afford to, for their own internal stability.

You're right. China in 1950 had just completed the revolution and despite the fact they had no heavy weapons or mobile armor they still went to war and pushed the UN Forces all the way back.

The current rulers may not be Mao but it's still a totalitarian regime. They have no problem using force on their own people when they see the need and they don't give a crap what the rest of the world thinks.

If the Chinese feel it is in their interest to defend NK, they will do it. Do they want to? I don't think so, but brinksmanship can only be played so far with the Chinese. If backed into a corner they will defend what they see as their best interest and Wal-Mart be damned.

They will not sit by and let North Korea be attacked. They will do their best to get that fruitcake Kim to back off, but there is no way they will tolerate a South Korean and/or American invasion of the North.

Here's the scary part, China may be a country willing to use their nukes. I don't know if any American president will retaliate with nukes unless US territory itself was attacked.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

"China's exports have indeed grown at a 25% annual rate, over twice the rate of growth in GDP. Since the value added by exports presently contributes about 12% to China's GDP, this means that, in recent years, export growth has contributed about 3% of the 11%-13% growth rate in GDP. This is an important component. However, these numbers also show that about three-quarters of the growth rate in China's GDP has come from domestic spending and domestic investment. "

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/apr2009/gb20090420_581968.htm

So China is not as dependent on the US as some would make it out to be.

I also think that some estimates of how easy it would be for the US/SK to defeat China in a war are perhaps a touch optimistic.

Why on earth would they train their troops to deal with a collapse of command structures? That's dangerous. It violates the fiction that North Korea is strong and we are weak, but more importantly, cultivating independence of thought and action among those with weapons is the LAST thing a totalitarian and oppressive government is going to want to do. That's how you encourage a coup.

Interesting claim. Do you have anything to support it?

 

[McHrozni]

Here's the scary part, China may be a country willing to use their nukes. I don't know if any American president will retaliate with nukes unless US territory itself was attacked.

Any country that has nukes has to be ready to use them, else they're just a waste of money.

That said, I suspect that a limited nuclear strike may be a way to go with China, if it decided to be stupid and used nuclear weapons. China is not the Soviet Union in may ways, and that includes their much smaller nuclear deterrent.

One interesting aspect worthy of study would be to see the reaction of China of South Korea declaring they're withdrawing from the NNPT. I imagine it would be quite a headache.

That said, if wikileaks is correct, China would perfer a unified Korea under Seoul to maintaining status quo. If that report is accurate, and the opinion penetrates sufficiently deep into Chinese leadership, that may be the endgame for North Korea. They would likely fight like a cornered dog and the situation would be extremely dangerous, but it has the best chance of a positive end result in the long term of all scenarios that I can see.

McHrozni

 

[Captain.Sassy]

if wikileaks is correct, China would perfer a unified Korea under Seoul to maintaining status quo

I believe that much (not all though) of the wikileaks stuff on China's NK position was based on American diplomats reporting what their South Korean counterparts had told them. South Korea may have an interest in over-selling China's displeasure.

 

[anduin]

Thanks to Wikileaks, now we know that the Chinese are tired of North Korea, and that they prefer peaceful solutions. It is unlikely that the Chinese will assist North Korea in case of war, particularly one that NK starts without provocation. It is not in their best economic interest, they are doing fine with the status quo.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/north-korea-china-us-buck

 

[keale]

"China's exports have indeed grown at a 25% annual rate, over twice the rate of growth in GDP. Since the value added by exports presently contributes about 12% to China's GDP, this means that, in recent years, export growth has contributed about 3% of the 11%-13% growth rate in GDP. This is an important component. However, these numbers also show that about three-quarters of the growth rate in China's GDP has come from domestic spending and domestic investment. "

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/apr2009/gb20090420_581968.htm

So China is not as dependent on the US as some would make it out to be.

I also think that some estimates of how easy it would be for the US/SK to defeat China in a war are perhaps a touch optimistic.



Interesting claim. Do you have anything to support it?

Well its reality.....can you cite what military assets NK and China could trot out that wouldnt get shot down immediately. China is at least decades behind current US platforms hell their not even on par with our last generation of weapons in land sea or air.

I wanted to add that any conflict would be bad news for China and the US. People like to think that Chinese products are limited to Wal Mart which is far from reality. Just about everything that you can buy these days was made in China for the simple reason that they can get it to us at cheaper prices than anyone else. Ive worked in retail and wholesale and you can beat China in the price game its amazing how cheaply they can make stuff. Chinese businesses are very very aggressive and will undercut anyone and everyone.

 

[dudalb]

That's a bit optimistic, don't you think? You know, the army of South Korea is over twice as large as the US force that took out Iraq in a fortnight, and not significantly worse off in equipment. Their air force is about 40% the size of Chinese air force, and that can be quickly brought to superiority with a few US carriers. NK air force is a joke, and probably more of a threat to it's pilots than the enemy.

Aside of the land war, there is the sea war at stake. Chinese navy and commercial navy would be swept from the seas in a week - most certainly before they would be able to declare "North Korean aggression was over".

All this aside, the economic impact of the war would be cataclysmic for the West, and that would pale compared to what it would do to China. It would likely end their meteoric rise to power for at least a few decades, and throw a few hundred million people back into poverty for good. Hardly a situation Chinese leadership wants, I suspect, and certainly no godsend.

This isn't the world of 1950s, where you can actually wage major wars. The economic impact alone is more than enough to ensure a war between two major powers is all but impossible.

McHrozni

Somehow I suspect that China does not want the total mess that is North Korea on Their hands.