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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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not a single word of your post addresses the simple truth that anecdote is not evidence.

Sophistry is not an argument either. I do hope you're paying Brimmer a residual, twice the going rate for the times you've misused his quip the past week or so.

What you refer to as 'anecdotal evidence' is quite useful for understanding and explaining the atypical, and there are many in need of enlightenment here, including myself. I cannot even decide what I should call what happened in the early morning hours some three years ago. 'Confession/accusation' is what I've been referring to it as, though I don't really think it was either a confession or an accusation.

Kevin Lowe has made an argument for an internalized false confession employing a breadth of methods, including--abbreviated for venue--multiple case studies. That's what 'anecdotal evidence' is called in fields where quantitative statistical analysis is insufficient. However in the end I am more interested in what it means, and how it happened, than defining what it was, being as all it seems to draw is more moles for him to whack. Thus for the meantime I'll stay along the lines of 'they put the screws to her and freaked the chick out.'

Your posts are erudite and elegant, it's tragic such talent is wasted by endless redefinitions of the association fallacy. Perhaps your gifts could be employed in the search for evidence of guilt that passes the sniff test. I'm trying to figure out myself just how many 'lies' it takes to draw one drop of blood and--considering the whoppers told by the prosecution--if that is the standard whether they are a more likely suspect than the two stoned lovebirds they've caged.

:)
 
Innocence Project on false confessions

SNIP
Seems like a lot of letters to waste in a futile effort to avoid the word "lie".), not a single word of your post addresses the simple truth that anecdote is not evidence.

No amount of dancing around the fire will change this. Even your fellow partisan Matthew Best agrees.

Anecdote avalanche is a common rhetorical tactic. We see it all the time in "opinion pieces" on "news journals". Politicians are fond of it when they are trying to use hysteria and misdirection in an effort to get laws enacted which would not otherwise withstand informed scrutiny, or to get themselves re-elected. It is edifying to understand that it is a tactic most often employed when argument based on reason and fact is not forthcoming.

Quadraginta,

Why are you ignoring the study by the Innocence Project that I cited for your benefit within the last couple of days? They found that false confessions played a role in 24% of the erroneous convictions that they studied.

Thought for the day: Maybe you and Alt+F4 should do some of your own research, instead of letting everyone else do the work and then claiming it is not up to scratch in some way.
 
Assuming Rudy left at 10:30, how likely is it that he dumped the cell phones before he changed clothes and went back out (around 11:30). It would seem to me that he would have dumped the knife at the same time and his clothes after he went home to change. I don't think he would have used three separate locations to dump phones, knife, and clothes. Was the area that the phones found searched with a metal detector for a knife?
 
Or... are you interpreting Raffaele as saying in his Diary that on this night of his interrogation he made both statements to the cops:

First he said to the cops: "Amanda left me that night to go to her workplace, Le Chic." But later during the same interrogation session, he withdrew that statement and said: "Amanda wants me to say that she left me that night, but that's crap."?

///

???

"The judge questioned me today and he told me that I gave three different statements, but the only difference that I find is that I said that Amanda persuaded me to talk crap [dire cazzate] in the second version, and that she [quella] had gone out to go to the bar where she worked, Le Chic. ...It would have been better if I had done nothing and had limited myself to saying that she had remained at my house."

To me, this doesn't seem as complicated as you are making it out to be. We know Amanda didn't go to Le Chic that night, so it is hardly likely she would have asked Raffaele not to tell the police she did.
 
The guilter community appear to be under some kind of delusion that false confessions only come after physical torture. They won't even watch videos such as this one that demonstrates the techniques employed...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJcqjPxtIXc

It's very uncomfortable to watch this (it was featured on the same programme from where my clip on false confessions came). Interestingly, the police homed in on Michael Crowe when they observed him "emotionlessly" playing on his Gameboy shortly after his sister's murder was discovered. They made a firm link between his "odd" behaviour after the murder and his culpability - sound familiar?

Eventually, a mentally-ill man, Richard Tuite, was convicted of Stephanie Crowe's murder, and the police are currently being taken to court by the Crowe family for the way they handled the case. Thank God there was a video of the interrogation....
 
The luminol results in Raffaele's bathroom could certainly be made with substances commonly found in a bathroom, the blood in urine as well as fecal matter both react with luminol. Other substances could be Amanda's menstrual blood, there was a box of tampons in Raffael's bathroom so we know she was on her period at some time over their time together, and she conceivably could have dripped blood walking naked to the bathroom or anything like that. These are believable to me and I'd readily accept these explanations as to why luminol results were obtained.

You are saying this could happen at Raffaele's place but not at the cottage? Give me a break.

DNA was extracted from these prints which can make it believable they were made in blood, unless you think an incredibly uniform shedding of skin cells from the bottom of the feet produced the results.

Meredith's DNA was not found in any of the bare footprints.
 
Just as a point of interest, the restaurant where Guede ate his kebab is not called "kebap". That simply means "kebab". The restaurant is called "Il Cedro". Maybe the next time I go to McDonald's, I'll just say I'm going to Hamburger......

Just a reminder (from 16th October) - it seems very easy to revise history these days.... :rolleyes:
 
You are saying this could happen at Raffaele's place but not at the cottage? Give me a break.



Meredith's DNA was not found in any of the bare footprints.

You are thinking the blob in Filomena's room is a shoeprint? I really can't tell. Do you have a decent photo of this one?
 

From what I gathered from the article it appears a decision on this might happen today? I was under the impression this was just a preliminary hearing of some sort.

Why does it seem so difficult to translate Italian? Even when humans do it makes for very dense reading. It's a romance language, it just looks to me like Spanish with a surfeit of 'Z's and 'I's and Spanish doesn't come out this way, nor French though it helps I can still kinda read it.
 
From what I gathered from the article it appears a decision on this might happen today? I was under the impression this was just a preliminary hearing of some sort.

Why does it seem so difficult to translate Italian? Even when humans do it makes for very dense reading. It's a romance language, it just looks to me like Spanish with a surfeit of 'Z's and 'I's and Spanish doesn't come out this way, nor French though it helps I can still kinda read it.

I agree. It seems Google does a lot better with other languages. For some reason the gender pronouns often come out as male instead of female which adds to the confusion.

It appears there is a request for dismissal to consider if not the trial will proceed and they will schedule it, from what I gather.
 
Perugia, 8 nov. Perugia, November 8 - (Adnkronos) - Il giudice Claudia Matteini ha appena rinviato a giudizio Amanda Knox con l'accusa di calunnia nei confronti di sette agenti della questura perugina e un interprete. - (Adnkronos) - The judge Claudia Matteini has just indicted Amanda Knox on charges of slander against seven agents of the police in Perugia and an interpreter. Il processo iniziera' il 17 maggio prossimo. The process will begin 'on May 17 next year.

The Italian definition of slander seems to be "You will be charged with slander if you defend yourself because, by making a defense, you will be saying that the courts, police and prosecution are wrong". Amanda Knox had the audacity to defend herself and thus is guilty of slander.

This is much bigger than the murder thing. This is a fight against lousy justice everywhere.

If the Italian laws make it this slander charge legal, then that just makes lousy justice more entrenched - not better.
 
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The reason we never heard Raffaele say more about what happened to him during his interrogation is because he probably had a better sense that it is verboten than Amanda had when she spoke of hers. He was deprived of counsel, however, which in itself speaks of coercion.

The reason why whe don't hear "more" - better, anyhing - of these claims of coercion (lying due to threat, fear) or false memory, is that he doesn't claim there was coercion or false memory.
He claimed instead Amanda induced him to tell a heap of crap in place of the truth.

The Massei report states that Raffaele was deprived of his legal right to counsel when he was interrogated by the Magistrate (presumably Mignini). His attorneys wanted the interrogation nullified, but they filed too late, according to the report.


The documentation that is available to us paints a picture of the night of the interrogations. The kids were isolated, pressured, coerced, physically threatened. Both were subjected to interviews with Mignini after their initial interrogations with police. Both were imprisoned (Raffaele on the 5th, Amanda on the 6th) without ever having spoken to a lawyer. Their mental confusion is apparent in what they wrote in the days following their arrests.

The complain by Giulia Bongiorno - as described in your quote of the Massei's report - is not for the lack of counsel, it is for the lack of a decree. The interrogation the defence wants to nullify, to thich this snippet refers, is not the police interogation, it is the subsequent one, which took place before Claudia Matteini , the one in which he gave his third "corrected" version (to be verified if a later one with Mignini ever occurred: as far as I know, this never occrred). She requsts that interrogation to be nullified on the ground of lack of a decree that should have been issued before.
The fact of being imprisoned without having spoken to a lawyer instead is legal. While instead, none of them was subjected to interviews with Mignini prior to having spoken no a lawyer: this never occurred, based on what reported by Massei.
 
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Sophistry is not an argument either. I do hope you're paying Brimmer a residual, twice the going rate for the times you've misused his quip the past week or so.

What you refer to as 'anecdotal evidence' is quite useful for understanding and explaining the atypical, and there are many in need of enlightenment here, including myself. I cannot even decide what I should call what happened in the early morning hours some three years ago. 'Confession/accusation' is what I've been referring to it as, though I don't really think it was either a confession or an accusation.

Kevin Lowe has made an argument for an internalized false confession employing a breadth of methods, including--abbreviated for venue--multiple case studies. That's what 'anecdotal evidence' is called in fields where quantitative statistical analysis is insufficient. However in the end I am more interested in what it means, and how it happened, than defining what it was, being as all it seems to draw is more moles for him to whack. Thus for the meantime I'll stay along the lines of 'they put the screws to her and freaked the chick out.'

<snip>


It is not sophistry to point out that anecdotes are being used as a rhetorical tactic, not as a part of a balanced and nuanced analysis.

Without some measure of comparative frequency quantitative statistical analysis is not merely insufficient in this usage, it is irrelevant. Not applicable at all. This does not even begin to address the subject of causality, in which it becomes necessary to articulate how a set of examples (anecdotes) somehow provide evidence that a relationship between those examples and other allegedly similar ones actually exists, and actually constitutes some basis to assume a causal relationship.

Kevin has not succeeded in such an endeavor. The additional cites by so many others of erroneous convictions have not either. A relentless parade of bad, scary stuff may, by some stretch of definition, constitute an argument, but it does not constitute a rational analysis. It is simply and starkly an appeal to emotion.

Even Matthew Best understands this, and he is arguing for the Knox defenders.

I fail to see what difference it would make. The fact of whether Knox's "confession" is false is unaffected by the number of other false confessions there may be.


And I agree with this statement.

My point is as simple as that.

Presented on its own, what we actually know about the Knox questioning does not provide us with enough data to draw the conclusion that she was coerced in any fashion beyond what would constitute standard law enforcement interview techniques generally acceptable even in the U.S. and U.K. Beyond that we have been offered hyperbole, distortion, and the insinuation and innuendo incited and bolstered by these anecdotes. Knox's own words, taken as a body and not scissored into conveniently manipulable bites, suggest that there was not any such brutal coercion.

The initial play on this meme was that she was held continuously for ~fifty hours without food, water, rest, or even sanitation. This did not withstand even casual scrutiny, and the vectors of the meme quickly (and repeatedly) retreated to presumably more defensible exaggeration. Argument by anecdote has become a new tactic of choice, but it no more defensible, just marginally less transparent.

The sad reality is that regardless of such clever verbal constructs as "internalized false confession", using only the facts at hand concerning her individual case, the simplest and thus (as has been often pointed out in these threads for many different reasons) most likely explanation is that Knox lied.

I am still open to conjecture as to why she may have chosen to lie, but I am not convinced by the unrelated anecdotal arguments alluding to coercion. No matter how many of them are posted.
 
The reason why whe don't hear "more" - better, anyhing - of these claims of coercion (lying due to threat, fear) or false memory, is that he doesn't claim there was coercion or false memory.
He claimed instead Amanda induced him to tell a heap of crap in place of the truth.

Yes, he does, he refers to it as "psychological torture" in his diary. I find the last line interesting. Is the diary posted at PMF that was linked here some hours ago mistranslated? In English it says that Raffaele said he lied to police when he said that Amanda asked him to cover for her. What does it say in the original Italian?

BTW, if Giobbi claims he can use pseudo-psychology to tell a guilty person just by looking at them, don't you think they can use real psychology to get them to say what he wants?
 
The reason why whe don't hear "more" - better, anyhing - of these claims of coercion (lying due to threat, fear) or false memory, is that he doesn't claim there was coercion or false memory.
He claimed instead Amanda induced him to tell a heap of crap in place of the truth.


Throwing someone into a prison cell is threatening and coercive by its nature.

<snip>
The fact of being imprisoned without having spoken to a lawyer instead is legal. While instead, none of them was subjected to interviews with Mignini prior to having spoken no a lawyer: this never occurred, based on what reported by Massei.


Can you please provide the location of this information in the report?
 
It is not sophistry to point out that anecdotes are being used as a rhetorical tactic, not as a part of a balanced and nuanced analysis.

Without some measure of comparative frequency quantitative statistical analysis is not merely insufficient in this usage, it is irrelevant. Not applicable at all. This does not even begin to address the subject of causality, in which it becomes necessary to articulate how a set of examples (anecdotes) somehow provide evidence that a relationship between those examples and other allegedly similar ones actually exists, and actually constitutes some basis to assume a causal relationship.

Kevin has not succeeded in such an endeavor. The additional cites by so many others of erroneous convictions have not either. A relentless parade of bad, scary stuff may, by some stretch of definition, constitute an argument, but it does not constitute a rational analysis. It is simply and starkly an appeal to emotion.

This is empty sophistry.

If I want to know whether I have a winning lotto ticket, I check the numbers on the ticket. I don't refuse to look at the numbers, demand someone tell me the odds of winning, and claim that I can't possibly tell whether or not it's a winning ticket just by looking at it.

The only possible scenario in which your repeated demand for statistics would be in any way relevant is if we knew absolutely nothing about Amanda's interrogation or her statement. That is not the case, hence your demand is ridiculous.

Even Matthew Best understands this, and he is arguing for the Knox defenders.

And I agree with this statement.

My point is as simple as that.

So now your story is that you were arguing with a straw man all along? Whatever.

Presented on its own, what we actually know about the Knox questioning does not provide us with enough data to draw the conclusion that she was coerced in any fashion beyond what would constitute standard law enforcement interview techniques generally acceptable even in the U.S. and U.K. Beyond that we have been offered hyperbole, distortion, and the insinuation and innuendo incited and bolstered by these anecdotes. Knox's own words, taken as a body and not scissored into conveniently manipulable bites, suggest that there was not any such brutal coercion.

Except that you've been shown the opposite repeatedly, so why are you repeating this doctrine?

The initial play on this meme was that she was held continuously for ~fifty hours without food, water, rest, or even sanitation. This did not withstand even casual scrutiny, and the vectors of the meme quickly (and repeatedly) retreated to presumably more defensible exaggeration. Argument by anecdote has become a new tactic of choice, but it no more defensible, just marginally less transparent.

Sorry, but we aren't a homogenous mass and I don't take responsibility for every dumb thing every dumb innocenter anywhere has ever said.

I suggest that you should engage with the best possible version of the argument that the conviction was unjustified. I realise that's less fun than disinterring old, stupid arguments nobody here is making so you can attack them all over again, but if your goal is intelligent discussion there is no substitute for engaging with the best possible version of the opposing argument.

The sad reality is that regardless of such clever verbal constructs as "internalized false confession", using only the facts at hand concerning her individual case, the simplest and thus (as has been often pointed out in these threads for many different reasons) most likely explanation is that Knox lied.

I am still open to conjecture as to why she may have chosen to lie, but I am not convinced by the unrelated anecdotal arguments alluding to coercion. No matter how many of them are posted.

Scientific facts are scientific facts. You can try to make them go away by arbitrarily deciding to call them "clever verbal constructs" or "just Kevin's assertion" but they will remain scientific facts regardless of what verbal contortions are used to disparage them.

You keep avoiding the question: How can Knox's statement have all of the characteristics of an internalised false statement that we have repeatedly listed for you, if it was not an internalised false statement? Is it your theory that Knox knew what one was supposed to sound like and faked it, and if so where is your evidence? Otherwise, how do you explain those identifying characteristics which are not found in confessions which are not internalised false statements?
 
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